Thoughts for A Wednesday

 1. A shame what happened with Rocchio and Calhoun on Monday.  A convergence of bad stuff that ruined a good start by Gavin Williams

2. Obviously very excited about Williams and Bibee and, to some extent, Logan Allen but would love to get some production out of our other 2021 and 2020 draftees and trade acquistion pitchers.  But, man, Williams and Bibee have looked really good.  Good test for Allen tonight as we can use the last 2 starts to measure where Allen is.  To me Allen's upside is as a left-handed version of Aaron Civale.  That would be pretty good.  Still hoping for Cantillo, Nikhazy, Mace, Webb, Carver, Hajjar, Messick and others provide more ML pitching.  However, there is a lot of work to do with these guys.

3. Speaking of Messick, two great starts in a row for him and he was sitting at 93 today which is good for him and especially good as we approach the end of his first long professional season.  He did look like he hurt his leg or hip when he landed oddly in the 5th.  Hope he is OK as he is just getting his footing at high A.  Note, also, that the 1-2 mph he has added on his fastball from his time at Lynchburg is really paying dividends.  

4. I had to laugh as the first of the 2023 college slap hitter draftees to play professionally, Cooper Ingle, started his career with a slap hit ground ball between short and 3rd that he legged out.    Walked in his next two plate appearances and slapped a ground ball down the 3rd base line in his 4th AB.  Priceless!  The draft strategy is working! (insert tongue-in-cheek emoji). [NOTE: Hawke and Advincula did play in the ACL the night before but I choose not to sount that.]

5. I love Chase DeLauter's swing.  Would love to see him promoted to AA as he is too dominant in A+ right now.  I am still wondering about his abilities against more polished pitchers, especially LH pitchers but, so far, his bat looks really quick and he seems to make a lot of hard contact.  This is in comaprison to Joe Lampe who never seems to make hard contact.

6. Still cannot believe that we signed Cole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano.  First, if either is on the roster next year it will not be good.  That is not who we should be.  That is what rebuilding teams do who are trying to save a buck, signing cheap guys who really don't make your team better.  We need a stud RH hitting outfielder.  Second, the money we saved on trading Civale we gave right back by obtaining Laureano.  I get that Francona wants veteran leadership on the team but Noel should get his feet wet this year in the majors.  If he had been on the team and playing 1B on Mnday, maybe we win that game.  I acknowledge that Laureano probably won the game yesterday with his bat and his arm, holding a runner at 2nd with an on-the-fly throw from RF to third base.  But, still, he was DFA'd by the worst team in baseball!

7. Still cannot believe they brought up Tena and not Schneeman.  Besides what a great, feel-good story it would have been for career organizational player Schneeman, he would be expendable if we eventually had to DFA him AND as Tena sits there on the Guardians bench. we are robbing Tena of really important AAA ABs in his development.  His option clock is ticking, as well.  More than sometimes I wonder if these guys in the FO have any clue about what they are doing.  This seemed like a no brainer to me...of course that was before they had to create room for AAAA players.  

8. I think there is going to be a major shakeup in the Guardians top 30 prospects.  No way George Valera deserves to be the #1 prospect the way he is hitting.  It is hard to tell if this is just a hangover from his injuries earlier this year but he now has two straight years of poor performances at AAA.  Next year will be his last option year and he doesn't look like he is even close to the majors, let alone being able to stay in the majors for good.  Plus I think Juan Brito has to leapfrog a lot of guys as his batting eye and bat-to-ball skills continues to translate to upper levels of the minors, which is a great sign.  Plus, I imagine Rocchio will get enough ABs that he will be off the prospect list before the end of the season.  I mean, heck, our newest prospect, Manzardo, might end up as our #1 prospect and then the FO can tell us what a great trade it was to get him for Civale and his great stats and 2+ years of control.  They can even add on that Civale gave up 9 hits in 4+ innings in his Tampa debut.

9. I would love to know how much Kopech was fined and what Arias did to be fined.   Hopefully Ramirez gets a game shaved off his suspension and Anderson's suspension is left as it is.  Basically what Ramirez did was throw one punch and stood up for his teammates.  

10. Speaking of prospects, it will be interesting to see what the experts think of the prospect status of Estaban Gonzalez who is in his 2nd year in the ACL.  Maybe, at about 20.4 years old he is just feasting on younger pitchers but his skill set is interesting.  The fact that he is short and still has power and speed gives me Jose Ramirez vibes.   Obviously Jaison Chourio is the stud there but if Gonzalez is a prospect of note, that makes our ACL team look better.   On the same note, with two stud prospects in Francisca and Pirela in the Dominican League this makes our very low levels of the minors must more exciting.  I can't really tell about the other position player prospects in the ACL or DSL but there is some interesting stuff going on at those levels that may impact prospect rankings leading up to the 024 season.  One caution: please, not trades involving these guys with Tampa Bay or, realistically, with any team.

40 Man Roster Projections - Never Too Early To Get Started

Now that we are fading out of the playoff picture and bringing in retreads like Calhoun (2-11 so far) and lifetime mediocre roster filler Ramon Laureano, the classic sucker bet that suddenly these guys can make a difference that they have never made or haven't made in years, it is time to start thinking about the REAL impact potential guys that we are going to put on the 40 man this winter.  

So, here goes:

40 man roster locks:

Pitchers

1. Allen

2. Bibee

3. Bieber

4. Cantillo

5. Clase

6. Curry

7. De Los Santos

8. Hentges

9. Herrin

10. Karinchak

11. McKenzie

12. Morgan

13. Morris

14. Quantrill

15. Sandlin

16. Stephan

17. Williams

Catchers

18. BO Naylor

19. Fry

Infielders

20. Brito

21. Freeman

22. Andres Gimenez

23. Angel Martinez

24. Josh Naylor

25. Noel

26. Jose Ramirez

27. Rocchio

28. Tena

29. Arias

Outfielders

30. Kwan

31. Brennan

32. Valera

33. Gonzalez

Current 40-man roster guys on the bubble

34. Battenfield

35.Gaddis

36. Straw

True Prospects not currently on 40-man who are Rule 5 eligible

37. Jonathon Rodriguez

38. Tanner Burns

39. Daniel Espino

40. Dayan Frias

Other Players not on 40 man roster who might be considered for a spot

41. Zach Plesac

42. Bryan Lavastida

42. Daniel Schneeman

44. Micah Pries

44. Alexfri Planez

So, as you can see, even dipping down to suspects like Schneeman, Pries and the currently injured Planez, you only have 44 guys for 40 spots.  That's really a good position for this time of year for an organization like the Guardians who SHOULD always be prospect-heavy in terms of prospects coming up to their Rule 5 years.  In my opinion we should have no trouble putting together a 40-man roster entering the off-season.   In addition, the two prospects we got in the deadline deals, Manzardo and Watson, do not have to be rostered this winter (Manzardo after next year, Watson the year after that)

So, what do I do the rest of the season?

Add Plesac to the 40-man before the end of the year.   I don't know if Plesac will even be a viable option for us but he is at least worth taking to spring training next year and, as he would be a 6-year free agent if we didn't roster him, we need to at least maintain that flexibility.  

I don't know if it will be possible but, if so, DFA Gallagher and bring up Lavastida for September.    I know Lavastida is a long shot after being taken off the roster earlier this year but I want to see what he can do in the last month.  Worse comes to worse we trade him ahead of the November roster freeze.  I would be very comfortable going into next spring training with Naylor, Fry and Lavastida as my rostered catchers along with 1-2 veteran FA catchers signed to minor league deals.

The FO SHOULD have brought up Schneeman instead of Tena as we need to see what Schneeman can do ahead of the Rule 5 but we didn't do that and, instead, brought in Calhoun and Laureano, in totally stupid, unnecessary moves.  I hope these are VERY short-term moves even though Laureano has already cost us the savings we made when we traded Civale.  

In the off-season?

Add Burns, Espino, Rodriguez and Frias to the 40-man ahead of the November deadline.  I am not so convinced Burns is a true prospect but I want to at least given him another year in the minors, this time at Columbus, to see if we can find a role for him on the ML team.  I don't know about Rodriguez as a true prospect but he is almost a lock to be selected in the Rule 5 if we don't protect him.

Clearly, guys on the bubble could be traded or even DFA'd if we sign quality FAs in the off-season so we have some flexibility there, too.

Thoughts for A Monday - Suspension, Acquisitions, Expectations

 Suspensions from Saturday's brawl

• Ratio of games about right for Anderson/Ramirez.  This will especially piss off Anderson and his huge ego as he got knocked down AND got the bigger suspension.  Hope it costs him his option year being exercised and that he has to play for a $6 million one-year prove it deal next year, costing him about $5 million in salary.
• Francona/Grifol correct, as I didn't see either of them helping the situation with Grifol inflaming it and Francona making light of it in his post-game interview.  Francona may still be fined/suspended for his last two ejections.  Don't know it that will happen.
• Clase about right looking at how incensed he was, but I really want to know who made him that way.  It is clear he had some interaction with a taller WS player before he went ballistic (could see it on the video but couldn't identify the player.  I want to know who that was and what he did to make Clase lose it.
• Kopech getting fined is VERY appropriate, given him holding Ramirez so Anderson could get in another shot and putting Ramirez in a choke hold.  Hope it was a stiff fine
• Don't know how much or why Arias got a fine.  Would like to know that answer.
• MLB should have levied more fines, especially on players who didn't stop the initial Ramirez/Anderson fight.  There were WS players, especially Andrus, who didn't appear to make an attempt to wrestle Anderson away from Ramrez until after Ramirez decked him.

Ramon Laureano

Great as a 5th outfielder but no team carries 5 guys who exclusively play the OF.  Instead, we should have just called up Noel and DFA'd Calhoun.  Given Laureano's salary one of the few rays of sunshine from that deal is we saved a little salary from Civale.  Given Laureano's salary and that we inherited it by claiming him on waivers, the Civale savings and the Laureano spending essentially equals out.

Expectations

People are starting to realize that this team might not win 70 games this season.  Pretty pathetic considering they were 53-53 at one point.  Means, from that point, they would have to go 16-40 in the last 1/3 of the season.  Very Oakland-like.  Maybe that is why Laureano is here, to help teach the younger guys how to lose.

Interesting Dynamic of Third Party MLB Broadcasts - Steve Stone is a Homer

It would be interesting to someone on the inside who could talk frankly to Rick Manning.  I watched the game on Peacock yesterday and everything Stone said seemed to either be a slight against the Guardians. From his point that the suspensions from the fight will hurt the Guardians more than the White Sox since the Guardians are still in the playoff hunt to his comment at the end of the game about Calhoun ('well that's what you get when you play people out of position') he just seemed like he was a walking, talking, apologetic advertisement for the White Sox.  I wonder if Mannng would have that same take as some of Manning's comments appeared to be barbs against the veiled slams against the Gurdians and dismissive comments about the performance issues with the White Sox this year and even with their responsibility for the brawl. 

It could just have been the mood I was in yesterday but like Costas during the divisional series last year with his incessant (even to Yankees fans) regaling of Yankees history, Stone was a White Sox homer on what is supposed to be a professional, somewhat neutral broadcast since it is a 3rd party provider.  

I don't know if anyone else noticed but there seemed to be a tension in Stone's voice about the brawl, similar to that in Grifol's voice and in his actions during the brawl, that would indicate that there was a much deeper issue going on between the White Sox and the Guardians that seemed to imply that during their winning years that the Guardians were taunting the White Sox about how they weren't any good, in essence disrespecting the White Sox.   I don't know if that happened but it sure appears that the bad blood between the teams could likely be from one team trying to minimize the abilities of the other and the other taking offense at being minimized like that. 

But I never have liked Stone.  I don't think he is a good broadcaster and he is clearly a homer.  I mean, listening to Manning every day he tells it like it is when a player or Francona screws up.  Don't see that so much out of Stone the times I have heard him.

Fight Followup - Major League Baseball - Please Take Note

 

Michael Kopech -"We're not going to be bullied by a team playing under .500."

Really, Mike?  Seems like I see you in this picture (and obviously from the video) with a chokehold on Ramirez, assisting Anderson as he allowed at least his THIRD punch on Ramirez.  You continued your choke hold for another second or two before Ramirez broke away.  Besides, Mike, what caused you to run out and get into this fight?  ANd didn't you or any of your teammates restrain Anderson BEFORE they started fighting.  It is your job t o hold back your teammate, not hold your Ramirez so Anderson could hit him more succesfully.

Elvis Andrus: “We know Timmy, that’s why we love him and are always going to support him and have his back."  Really, Elvis?  Is that why you are seen in this picture and in the video doing nothing to try to stop Anderson while he delivered 3 punches to Ramirez and your first intervention was to help Anders get up aftre Ramirez retaliated with a punch knocking him to the ground?  I also have to ask: In today's game you can be seen when Ramirez goes down trying to avoid an inside and low pitch, holding your glove hand in the air.  What was up with that?

Pedro Gifol -

what he said:  "I am not going to comment on the situation"

what he meant: "On the advice of counsel I invoke my 5th amendment privilege against self-incrimination and respectfully decline to answer your questions"

Grifol cannot be seen in the video trying to restrain his players or get them back to the dugout.  If you watch the video all that can be seen is him yelling at people and inflaming the situation.

In fact, immediately before Mike Sarbaugh gets ejected, you can see him trying to keep players back, until Grifol starts yelling at, I think, Francona and Sarbaugh, at which time Sarbaugh takes offense and starts yelling back.  

Tim Anderson -

what he said: nothing

what he meant: "On the advice of counsel I invoke my 5th amendment privilege against self-incrimination and respectfully decline to answer your questions"

Dear MLB

JOSE RAMIREZ HAS NEVER BEEN EJECTED FROM A GAME OR SUSPENDED.

Jose Ramrez didn't throw the 1st punch, he threw the 4th punch after being hit 3 times by Anderson, twice while being restrained in a chokehold by Michael Kopech.

Tim Anderson threw the first THREE punches and that had to be escorted to the dugout TWICE as he kept trying to get back out after Ramirez.

Tim Anderson has been ejected a number of times before, including at least 4 times in the past 2+ years:

• April 5, 2023
• July 30, 2022
• September 29, 2021
• July 23, 2021

In addition, Anderson was suspended for making an obscene gesture towards Cleveland fans on April 20, 2022

There is evidence that at the game on Saturday, Anderson was warned for comments he was making to Gabriel Arias.

JOSE RAMIREZ HAS NEVER BEEN EJECTED FROM A GAME OR SUSPENDED.

So, MLB, when you make your decision on who gets suspended, for how long and who gets fined, please consider all of the above.  Jose Ramirez is a model citizen.  I cannot even remember him EVER even making an agressive bat flip and, after the first skirmish, he did not try to go back after Anderson, let alone the two times Anderson tried to go back after him.

'The Fight'

 OK, let me start by saying that with all problems this country has from needless violence to social issues to environmental issues, a baseball fight should rank below any animal species that went extinct in the past month.  A fight in a GAME, when we all teach our kids that it is just a game.  This should not be news nor should it take away from talk about any of the important issues in today's world...but it is.  Sad commentary on the 'sensationalist culture' that is never-ending, it seems.  So let's tell our kids the truth.  This was just a couple of guys who should solve problems with their words and not with their fists.

That being said, here are my thoughts:

• After watching numerous angles of the video the Chicago White Sox should be in deep crap after this incident
• Anderson three at least 3 punches before Ramirez landed his.  Then, he kept trying to come back to get one more shot at Ramirez.  Now I can't tell you what Anderson was thinking, it appeared to me like he had his manhood had been bruised by Ramirez's one punch after Anderson had thrown 3 punches that did not impact Ramirez, or so it appeared, with the last coming when Ramirez was being restrained (more on this later).  The fact that Anderson kept trying to get at Ramirez, including coming back onto the field after be wrestled into the dugout the first time,  should lead to a huge fine and suspension and his post-game remarks, if any, should factor into that.  The fact that this is not Anderson's first fight or suspension should weigh into this, as well.  I am not saying this because I am trying to be judge and jury against Anderson.  Just saying it because that is how I feel and MLB should know how fans feel about this.
• Ramirez should be fined and suspended as he instigated the incident, but if you look at his reaction and the look on his face after he hit Anderson, it doesn't look like he is wanting to instigate more conflict.  Add that to the fact that Ramirez is NOT an instigator and is generally held in good esteem by teammates and competitors, he should not be fined and should be suspended much less than Anderson.
• Pedro Gifol is right, the MLB has its work cut out for it on this one.  Some thoughts:
• Kopech, needs to be suspended and fined.  All you have to do is look at him getting Ramirez in a choke hold while Anderson delivered his 3rd punch.  You don't see him trying to restrain Anderson. 
• Anderson's teammates in the vicinity who just stood there and did not stop Anderson BEFORE he delivered his punches need to all be fined.  It is not right that those guys only tried to restrain Anderson AFTER he got decked, not while he was delivering his own punches.  
• Grifol and Francona need to both be fined and suspended.  Grifol was much more of an instigator than Francona on this one, he instigated a confrontation with Sarbaugh and his indignant stance on this whole issue should be dealt with by him having a stiffer fine and longer suspension than Francona.  That being said, Francona will likely be fined for each of his other two ejections recently so the net-net should make their penalties appear similar.  Plus neither were actually trying to be peacemakers on this one.  Hey, Grifol, there is sticking up for your players but look at the reaction across the internet, including your own fans, for gosh sakes.  Your guy was wrong, his teammates were wrong and your behavior was second only to Anderson's as being the most inappropriate in this incident.
• I have no idea what Clase was up in arms about but when you are not a principal in an incident like this and your teammates have to restrain you, then your behavior needs to be closely scrutinized.   If no one else caused it by actions against you then, sir, you are essentially screwed and you need to apologize and take your penalty, whatever that is.
• I assume that Eloy Jimenez was just spiked or something and that was the cause of his rage against the dugout padding.  Agan, if someone intentionally did something to him, that person needs to be punished.
• Obviously if Sarbaugh was ejected he has to at least be fined.  MLB should find out what was said between him and Grifol and who instigated that confrontation.

Look, this fight is a black eye for both organizations, each of which have had a disappointing season.  As a Guardians' fan I think there is fault to go around, not the least of which is frustration on how we and the Sox white-flagged this season.  I wish it wouldn't have happened and I hope all those involved, including the managers for not doing more to diffuse the situation early, apologize to everyone tomorrow.

That being said, my final thought is how this umpiring crew and their ineptitude were at least somewhat responsible for the events that led to this incident.  MLB should do all their investigation while leaving the umpires out of it.  Talk to players and coaches, talk to media people near the field, heck, get lip-reading experts if you want.  But this umpiring crew was part of the problem and needs not to be part of the penalties as they were anything but part of what needlessly became a bigger incident than it should have been.

Friday Night Post - Foresight or luck, Promotions and Non-Promotions, 70 win threshhold, Don't look behind the curtain, Same old, same old

 Foresight or Luck?

Well, if we hadn't traded Civale we would all be saying right now: Damn, as this season is dead I wish we would have traded Civale.

So, now in hindsight, our bad strength of schedule compared to that of Minnesota probably doomed us WITH our lineup intact.  Without Naylor this season for the Guardians is functionally over with or without Civale.  So, it turned out well at this point unless he is on the IL because we don't need him because we waived the white flag. , sort of like Tito in 2021

Promotions and Non-Promotions

Naylor was having such a good season that I hate to see him miss any more time.  Freeman's injury hurts his chances in 2024 because, apparently, if these guys don't see you with their own eyes they can't project what you can do, if you are given an extended look.  Hope both are back soon.

These two injuries led to the promotion of Jose Tena and the purchase of Kole Calhoun.  So I have some questions:

• Does the organization think of 26.5 years old Daniel Schneeman as a real prospect or as an organizational guy having a good year?  If it is the latter then why not bring him up and give him a cup of coffee while Freeman is out.  Can't hurt and makes MUCH more sense than bringing up Tena, who just got to AAA.  It's also a good look for future minor league free agents who know if they play well and there is an opportunity they will get it.  Plus, if you were ever in your wildest dreams thinking you might roster Schneeman this winter, now is your chance to get a look.  FYI, Tena will lose 25 or more valuable PAs in AAA a week while he rides the pine in Cleveland.  Doesn't make a lot of sense to bring up Tena as Tito tends not to play these rookies AT ALL who are brought up just as insurance.   I think Schneeman would not be hurt by this time sitting as he has almost 400 PA in Columbus already, over two seasons.  Tena has 4.  
• Why bring in Calhoun when you could bring up Noel?  You have deemed this season dead with your Civale trade for a 2024, at best, guy.  Why bring in a broken-down 35-year old when you can get a look at Noel.  Yes, he isn't a polished prospect yet, but I have seen him play almost every game this year and he is a lightning in the bottle kind of guy for this year and is passable at 1B, LF and RF and came up as a 3B so he could even be used in a pinch there.  Plus that bat!  If this is more of the service time crap they pulled with Bo Naylor I will just freakin scream!!!
• Fry is your 26th man.  If you haven't figured that out by now then you need to.  Letting him play a lot is only going to cloud your vision of him for next year.  Some guys just play better in a limited role and I think Fry is one of those guys.  Whenever I have seen a team try to expand the role of a guy like that they are disappointed and end up jettisoning the guy as replacement level.  Fry IS a member of a WS team.  Now just find 25 guys to put in front of him!
• If you want to do promotions let's rip off the band-aid.  DFA Gallagher and bring up Lavastida.  The latter is actually the absolute worst I have seen this year, any level of professional baseball, at controlling the running game.  But he calls a good game, can block some balls and he is red hot with the bat.  Again, it gives you an extended look at him to see if he can handle a backup/30 games per year at catcher role.   Gallagher won't be here next year and we have already waived the white flag on this season so......

70 Win Threshold

Looking at the rest of our schedule, if we don't sweep the White Sox this weekend we may not even get to 70 wins this year.  Yes, going 16-37 the rest of the year is VERY possible and every loss we have to the White Sox this weekend makes that more possible.  The only thing I will say about that, if we have to, it is better to do it all at the end of the season instead of starting out that way at the beginning of the season.  The latter makes for 6 months of depressing baseball.

Don't Look Behind The Curtain

It is very easy to look at the results of our player acquisition process and have the following words/phrases come to mind:

• Morons
• Idiots
• Unprepared
• Dunning-Kruger effect

While any of these MAY be the case, the security blanket we all tend to cling to is that we don't know all the details and/or we don't have the analytics software to calculate the probable outcomes of a particular path forward.  So there is some possibility that we, as lowly fans without the sophistication of baseball executives just don't get it and we would be better served to just accept what is in front of us instead of trying to pull the curtain back to see what the 'real' story is.  

Or, we could say that the proof is in the pudding and that the pudding appears to be rotten, LOL.

Same Old, Same Old

This trade deadline a couple of things came out:

• The rich got richer, robbing the poor.  It just that, IMO, it was sooooo much worse than what we have seen in the past.  It was clearly a buyer's market where teams got multiple years of control players for pennies on the dollars of their worth...and not necessarily as salary dumps.  
• Cleveland was pathetic at making trades, getting less than equal value in every deadline transaction.  
• Cleveland, repeating the mistakes of 2022, had a disastrous 2023 draft where they chased after every LH hitting contract/no power prospect they could find and then piled onto that by trading for two more hit-over-power prospects at the deadline.

Sometime, do a deep dive into the transactions of the 70s and 80s.  Bad draft picks, trading hitting for pitching and then, a couple of years later, trading pitching for hitting, basically getting worse or treading water with each trade.  The key point here is that drafting and signing international free agents HAS to be the backbone of your system as these are really the only two ways in baseball that you increase the net talent in your organization.  If you screw either of those up, or if you make bad prospect-for--veteran trades, your team goes down the crapper, year-over-year.

Unfortunately the FO has a lot to answer for with their free agent signing fiascos, trade fiascos and draft fiascos.  The only place they appear NOT to be behind the curve for small market teams is sigining international amateur free agents.   To say they need to get better is the understatement of the year.   Don't know how to make that happen but these guys need to get better as we are now seeing enough evidence to show that they are NOT helping either the present or the future of this franchise with the moves they are making.