Two weeks of Arizona Fall League Left - Where are we?

 Kyle Manzardo

The Good:  He has hit 5 HRs and, until Saturday, he was tied for the league lead and has hit a LOT of tape measure HRs with excellent exit velocity.

The Better: He leads the AFL in XBH and his OPS still over .900

The Bad: He only has 6 BB and 19 K in 67 ABs against AFL pitching (about AA level).  That doesn't look like a guy who will be ready for the MLs next spring training.

Chase DeLauter

The Good: He has 6 Ks (in 63 ABs) and 6 XBHs in the AFL.  It is always good to have as many XBH as Ks, no matter what the level.  He also leads the league in SFs with 6 (the next closest player has 4).

The Better: He leads the league in RBIs by 5, producing 23 RBIs in 17 games

The Bad: That odd swing still has people debating and clearly, as this is AA-level pitching, any flaws in his swing will not be exposed by these pitchers in the desert in October.

Ryan Webb

The Good: He has now passed 100 IP on the year counting Lake County and his AFL numbers.  That bodes well for him pitching a full season next year getting his numbers up closer to 120-130 IP in 2024 without vastly going beyond his 2023 IP.  To me this means if his stuff holds and he stays healthy he even has a shot to pitch effectively in Cleveland at some point next year without being gassed when he finally makes it there.  He has also had moments of greatness like in his first start when the leadoff hitter got a triple and he struck out the 2-4 hitters, stranding that guy on 3rd as well as striking out 9 in 4.1 IP in his second start.  Even in his 3rd start, all against Mesa, they rocked him for 5 ER and 3 HRs he still struck out 7.  His overall numbers looked a lot like his college junior year.

The Better:  As of this point he still leads the AFL in strikeouts AND, by a large margin, in Ks per 9 IP from guys with more than 10 IP.  Now that may change depending on how many more starts Webb makes and how he does and how Davis Daniel, Ricky Tiedeman and DJ Herz finish.  What can't be taken away if Webb ends the season healthy is that this is an impressive performance from a guy still in A+ ball and it likely isn't a mirage in the desert as he came into this with a high pedigree albeit, due to injury, without a high prospect rating.  I watched his last start and while he gave up 5 hits almost all were weak contact and they were all singles.  For the most part, he was dealing.

The Bad: He has given up a lot of hard contact and has had periods of wildness.  His ERA, as a result, is not that good nor is his W/9 IP.  

Ross Carver

The Good: Carver is limiting hard contact.  He has not given up a HR in 12 innings and has a .205 BAA and a 1.17 WHIP

The Better: Carver is getting innings in and he is strking out guys with 14 Ks in 12 IP.  He is basically being a solid AFL borderline prospect who has not diminished his prospect status by his work in the desert.  As the goal was to get him extra innings that goal is being met and without sacrificing performance.  If he had pitched like this in AA he would have been a top 30 Guardans' prospect right now (and may sneak in to that over the winter depending on how things play out.

The Bad: He has not done much to distinguish himself from other pitching prospects in this league which puts him in the 3rd tier of prospects for the Guardians.  He needs to improve to be able to reach the upside I think he has.  That is, Aaron Civale upside.

Christian Cairo

The Good: He is hitting .313 with an OPS of .842 as a very patt-time player (32 ABs).  

The Better:  Cairo is getting improve against better competition and learning to play LF, both of which will improve his chances of getting to play a priority amount next year at AA, similar to what happened to Aaron Bracho this season.  If that happens, maybe the light will go on and he will become a perennial .300 hitter which will help Cairo reach this ML utility man upside (see Jose Fermin of the Cardinals).

The Bad: Still don't understand why an organizational soldier like Cairo is in the AFL.  He has shown nothing since his draft year that would indicate he has any chance to get to the majors.  He may have upside as a ML utility man but it would have been much better to send Tyler Freeeman to the AFL and let him get ABs and play some LF to improve his versatility for next year.

Bradley Hanner

The Good: He is getting innings in to work on stuff to develop as a middle reliever in the majors.  His 2023 regular season numbers do not show him to be a priority relief prospect in how he was used which, following on from being a minor league Rule 5 pick, would support that.  Looking more deeply into his regular season numbers and he held RHH to a .172 average and, overall, held hitters to a .634 OPS with a .297 SLG.  The fact that he was active the entire season and so didn't need the extra work the AFL provides shows me that maybe the Guardians wanted a longer look at Hanner to see if they wanted to add him to the Columbus reserve list or expose him to the minor league Rule 5 draft again.

The Better: He is performing at a good level and is not overwhelmed by the competition.  He has 11 Ks and only 2 BB in 7.1 innings, an improvement over his regular season average of about 4.5 BB/9 IP.  

The Bad: While Hanner has been effective in small sample size in the AFL it is not enough so far to move the needle and make him a priority relief prospect.  Right now he is still more of an organizational soldier who might repeat AA in 2024

Erik Sabrowski

The Good: Sabrowski put up a decent ERA in the AFL as he tried to get innings as he has missed a lot over the last two years.

The Better:  He accomplished that goal which puts him in a good position to get a minor league job in 2024 which is a good thing with the new pay structure for minor leaguers making it more competitive than before to get a minor league job as it is now a viable, year-round employment option.

The Bad: Sabrowski walked 8 in 11 innings so far and his peripherals say that he is a true organizational soldier at this point who would need a gimmick pitch or delivery to have a chance to get to the majors. 

2021 Draft - The Gift That Appears To Keep On Giving

 With early talk that the strength of the first-year player draft will be college pitching, time to look back on the Guardians' 2021 draft, a draft that has a chance to go down as the best in Guardians history.

As I said in my series on the draft last summer, it is not unreasonable to think that you can get one star, 2-3 other guys who will haver 3 year ML careers and maybe 2 guys (now that the draft is limited to 20 rounds) who have cups of coffee.  

The 2021 draft has a chance to be a lot more.  

Remember that the 2021 draft contained 18 college pitchers, 1 HS pitcher, 1 HS position player (Jake Foxx) and one college position player (Conner Koxx).  

To show you how early we are in the development process following this draft, the college draftees would not need to be put on the 40-man until after the 2024 season.  Normally guys may take 1-2 years of being on the 40 before they make the majors, meaning that the most likely draft time for these guys making the majors would have been projected  as 2025/2026.  If you expand on that line of thinking, it would mean that the college pitchers we drafted in 2021 should only be at AAA by the beginning of 2025.  And most of the guys you draft don't even make it AAA and some don't even make it ot AA!

So let's take a look at the guys we drafted in 2021 and see where they are now and where they will be projected to start the season in 2024:

1. Gavin Williams - MLB in 2023 (MLB in 2024)

2. Doug Nikhazy - AA (either AA or AAA)

2S - Tommy Mace - AA (AA)

3. Jake Fox -  A+ (AA) NOTE: As a HS draftee, doesn't have to be rostered until after 2025

4. Ryan Webb -  A+ (AA)

5. Tanner Bibee - MLB (MLB)

6. Aaron Davenport - A+ (AA)

7. Jack Leftwich - AA (AA)

8. Rodney Boone - A+ (AA)

9. Will Dion  - AA (AAA)

10. Franco Aleman - AA (AA/AAA)

11. Hunter Stanley - AA (AA/AAA)

12. Connor Koxx - AA (AA/AAA)

13. Davis Sharpe - A+ (AA)

14. Trenton Denholm - A+ (AA)

15. Alaska Abney - A+ (AA)

16. Zach Pettway - A (A)

17. Tyler Thornton - AA (AA/AAA)

18. Tommy Ventimiglia - Rookie (Rookie)

19. Reid Johnston - A+ (AA)

20. Jake Miller - A+ (A+)

We already have 2 guys who have made it to majors.   Only 2 of the 21 draft picks are stalled out in their career development. Ventimiglia can't seem to get his control together at all, even in rookie ball and Zach Pettway, due mostly to injuries.  The other 17 are progressing very well.  In fact, it is possible that, besides Williams and Bibee who have already made their ML debuts, as many as 7 of them will pitch or play at AAA in 2024 with a handful of them possibly making their big league debuts this coming season.  The rest (except for Ventimiglia and Pettway, obviously) could easily be playing at AA or AAA to start the season.

Compare this to the 2019 draft class and where each of those draftees finished the 2023 season

1. Espino - AA

2. Yordys Valdes - A+

3. Joe Naanjo - AA

4. Christian Cairo - A+

5. Hunter Gaddis - AAA/MLB

6. Jordan Brown - A

7. Xzavion Curry - MLB

8, Will Brennan - MLB

9. Will Bartlett - A+

10. Zach Hart - A+

11. Nick Mickolojchak - AAA (injured)

12. Allan Hernandez - A

13. Micah Pries - AAA

14. Ike Freeman - Released

15. Trey Benton - AA

16. Jordan Jones - Released (I think)

17. Julian Escobedo - Released

18. Matt Waldron - MLB

19. Kevn Kelly - MLB

20.Nic Enright - AAA

As you can see, most of the players drafted in 2019 haven't even made it to AA (9/20) in 4 seasons (albeit with the lost 2020 season) even though they were drafted two years earlier (most early picks were HS kids, though). Very few of them show any promise at all of making the leap in projectability to make me think they have any future at all as solid ML contributors, or even guys who will get a cup of coffee in the big leagues.

SUMMARY 

The 2021 draft class could be special, ranking right up there or above the two other outstanding draft classes in Guardians history: 2016 and the 1972 classes (Manning, Eckersley, Kuiper and a couple of others).  Will Dion, Ryan Webb and Franco Aleman appear to be on the fast track and other guys like high draft picks Nikhazy and Mace and almost every other college pitcher picked that year still have some level of promise that they could develop into pitchers who at least pitch in the majors or have 2-3 year careers (similar to Matt Waldron and Kevin Kelly from 2019).    

I have to say that this draft has been, for me, the most fun draft in my history of following Cleveland's drafts as it is filled with promise and almost devoid, so far, from disappointments.  

Guardians Fans: Time To Get Excited About Ryan Webb!!!

 Well, maybe.  

Here's why:

This is the most Webb has pitched in a year since he was drafted in 2021 while dealing with TJ surgery.  

Webb spent the entire 2023 season (except for one ACL rehab start) with the Lake County Captains.   He spent most of 2022 at Lynchburg trying to get back into the swing of pitching after the TJ surgery.  

Ryan Webb was our 4th round pick in 2021, drafted the round before Tanner Bibee.  His 2023 season was more of the same as 2022, trying to get his feel for pitching back.  The stats were a mixed bag of some good starts and some clunkers but in his last 3 regular season starts he pitched 17 innings and gave up 3 ER, striking out 18 while walking 4 and giving up 12 hits and 1 HR. 

I suggested in my "Who Should we Send to the AFL?" post that Webb could use the extra innings in the AFL because of his lost time in 2021 and 2022 added to him starting 2023 on the IL.  

So Webb was indeed assigned to the AFL and that is when the magic REALLY started to happen.

Today he pitched 4 innings and gave up 1 ER on 5 singles (bunt, 3 ground balls up the middle and 1 line drive).  He walked 1 and struct out 6, his 4th consecutive start where he K'd more than 1 hitter per inning.

So now here we are, 4 starts into the AFL season that is quickly drawing to a close and, in 4 starts, Webb has pitched 14.1 innings, striking out 27 hitters to lead the AFL in that category.  He has walked 8 and allowed 13 hits, including 3 HRs for an ERA of 5.65.

To show you how rare what he is doing is, let's look at the last 2 AFL seasons:

• In the last 2 AFL seasons only 4 pitchers (Jeff Criswell, 32, Cole Henry, 30 and Owen White 29 in 2021 and Connor Thomas. 32 in 2022) have struck out more batters than Webb has and it is likely Webb has one more start before the AFL draws to a close in about a week.  If he just strikes out 6 in his last start  (he hasn't struck out less than 5 so far, and that was in his first, 2-inning, start, he would have the most Ks of any pitcher who has pitched in the AFL in those 3 years.  It should be known that Criswell, Henry and White were top 10 prospects in their organization in those years and Thomas was top 15 for the Cardinals last year.
• As it stands right now, Webb has the 2nd best K/IP rate of any pitcher in 2021, 2022 and 2023 in their AFL appearances, bested only by Evan Reifert's ridiculous 25 Ks in 12 innings (1 hit, 4 walks allowed) in 2022.  The next best K/IP rate in those 3 years was 1.5, if you don't count one pitcher from 2022 who walked 14 and K'd 11 in 6 innings.  
• This is being done by a guy who has never played above A+ ball whereas all the other names mentioned above had at least played in AA in the year of their AFL accomplishments, with Thomas having played a full year at AAA in 2022.  This makes his success this fall even more rare.

So, folks, while Ryan Webb is probably not a finished product yet, for him to have this type of success in the AFL, actually historic success after having never played about A+ in his life, is a really good and exciting thing when you consider that, at draft time, he was way more highly thought of than even Bibee as Webb's draft slot was discounted from his actual talent by having TJ surgery before the draft (I think!).  That pedigree means, to me, we are likely seeing a guy just growing into his professional career rather than a mirage in the desert.  Let's hope so as that would be great for the pitching depth in our organzation.

The words that ring in my mind from the MLB Trade Rumors off-season Guardians chat ring true.  When asked who the next great pitcher would be to come out of the Guardians farm system the writer said 'Probaby some guy still in A ball trying to figure it out' or something like that.  Hmmm, I am taking that guy to the track with me next time I go!

IF Ifs and Buts Were Candy and Nuts What A Great HOF Induction Ceremony and Statue Unveiling It Would Be

 Spending a lot of my adult life in St. Louis I got to see, first hand, the power of baseball tradition. including the 12 statues (probably to be 13, soon (Albert Pujols)) outside of Busch Stadium.  That tradition drives the fans to keep St. Louis as a baseball town and have caused dozens of players to want to stay in St. Louis after they were traded there.  

Cleveland has its statues, too, with Doby, Boudreau, Feller, Thome and Frank Robinson.  

But it could have been and still could be a lot more.  And that's what this post is about.  So let's talk about some of the guys who could still have their statues outside of (or inside) Progressive Field. 

Jose Ramirez - Unless something changes drastically (trade, Baerga-like dropoff in his performance) Jose will end up the batting GOAT of this franchise.  That deserves a statue even if he falls short of HOF numbers

Albert Belle - Hey, he was a pain in the butt, likely for everyone he dealt with, but even Roy Hobbs tried to bean a reporter with a baseball so there is that.  Thirteen seasons and 381 HRs (Eddie Murray with 504 HRs never had more than 32 in a season, Albert had 7 seasons out of 12 with 34 or more), with every season but his rookie year having 95 or more RBI with an 11 year run of over 100 a year.  52 doubles and 50 HRs in a shortened 1994 is still the standard I look up to.   Yeah, we know he corked and maybe he even juiced, but the guy was an icon in Cleveland, a literal icon, whose fame was only dulled by the fact that he wasn't playing in New York or LA.  He should be in the MLB HOF and hopefully will, someday.  Irrespective of that, he should have a statue at the Prog, even if he chooses not to show up for the unveiling ceremony.

Julio Franco - Two things: Franco chasing the money to Asia and Mexico cost him the HOF and the Guardians not finding a place for him on their roster every year cost him the HOF.   Franco ended up with 2586 ML hits playing through his age 48 season.  However, he had another 790 hits playing in Japan, Korea and Mexico in years where he couldn't get an acceptable ML contract and could make more money overseas.  Yes, very shortsighted on his part although I am sure the extra money he made may serve him better than a HOF plaque.  Don't know, never talked to him.  But, still, he should have a statue at Progressive Field for his lifetime accomplishments.  This should be a slam dunk if he ever gets inducted into the MLB HOF, which I think, looking at the totality of his playing career, he should.

Omar Vizquel - I know that the allegations of spousal abuse are likely going to torpedo the standard path to the HOF.  However, along with Belle, he was an icon of the glory days of the 90s.  Like Franco, if they could have just found a way to keep him around he would have done all or most of his damage in Cleveland.  He was as good as Ozzie Smith IMO and I saw a lot of each of them in person and on TV.  He deserves to be in the MLB HOF AND to have his statue in or near Progressive Field.  I mean, Pete Rose has his statue in Cincinnati so....

Note, there may be older players/managers who deserve statues, too.  Tris Speaker, Al Rosen, Terry Francona, for example.  But the guys above are the guys I grew up with and they should be honored with statues even if the HOF committee chooses to enforce their own code of morality on these guys.

Recent Trades and Signings - Part 2 - What EXACTLY Can We Expect From Guys We Got In Recent Trades?

 Let's start by listing the guys that we got and lost in these recent trades.  The guys in bold are still in the Cleveland organization.  The guys with asterisks played in the majors for their new team after the trade:

Lost                                                 Gained
Bell*                                              Kahlil Watson

Bauers *                                          Damon Casetta-Stubbs

Eddie Rosario*                                Peyton Battenfield*

Jordan Luplow*                               Myles Straw*

DJ Johnson*                                    Konnor Pilkington*

Phil Maton*                                    David Fry*

Yainer Diaz*                                   Tobias Myers

Cesar Hernandez*                          Anthony Castro*  

JC Mejia*                                       Juan Brito

Kyle Nelson*                                 Ross Carver

Junior Caminero*                           Justin Boyd

Bradley Zimmer*                           AJ Hajjar

Yu Chang*                                     Noah Syndergaard*

Nolan Jones*                                 Kyle Manzardo

Carlos Vargas*

Jose Fermin*

Owen Miller*

Will Benson*

Konnor Pilkington

Richie Palacios*

Amed Rosario*

Josh Bell*

Aaron Civale*

There you have it.  Since the Clevinger trade the Guardians have made trades where they sent away 23 players with 22 of them appearing in the major leagues after the trade.  The Guardians recieved 14 players back in those trades, 6 of whom played in the majors with Cleveland after they were acquired but only 2 of those 6 are still with the team.  Another 6 are prospects (2 in our top 10, and 3 in our top 30).    23 guys out the door, 22 making some contribution for their new team and we only got 6 guys back who made contributions to our ML team and another 6 who might play in the majors in the future.  Seems like a waste of a lot of resources we had for very little return and almost no return to the performance of the Guardians ML team since July of 2020.  The obvious answer to me is bad trading by our FO.

So, if you want the Guardians to make any trades this winter just look at the lists above and maybe you might reconsider that wish.

But it is what it is.  We have what we have left from those trades.  Let's take a look at the prospects we obtained and see what we have in them.

Kyle Manzardo - When you think of Manzardo you have to think of Josh Naylor.  With any luck they will be clones except, of course, that we hope Manzardo avoids any future injuries.  Manzardo is likely to be at least a solid major leaguer albeit limited to DH and maybe 1B, if necessary.  He is at best an aversage first baseman defensively but the hope is that his bat carries him.  Keeping him and Naylor on the same team means that, like Josh Bell, the rotation through the DH position started under Francona to give players a rest will be less likely to be used.  He is either a trade chip or will be in Cleveland sometime this summer, maybe even on opening day depending on their acquistions this winter.

Juan Brito - His floor is as a solid major leaguer, sort of Cesar Hernandez-like.  His ceiling is being a Jose Ramirez clone.   He is an average, at best, defender at 2B but has improved over the past year so there is hope there.  He should have a minimum of 10 HR power which could grow to 25 HR power with a good OBP.   He is either a trade chip this winter or will be in Cleveland sometime in 2024 in some capacity.

David Fry - Given the respect he deserves, Fry will be the best, cheapest 26th man in baseball.  He would be best as the 3rd catcher but could be a backup although that would kill the advantage of his bat as you can't have your backup catcher playing other positions in case he would get hurt.  You don't need to say more than that.

Khalil Watson - The typical 5 tool HS player who either develops or flames out, Watson did not endear himself to Miami fans and I didn't see one article or post bemoaning that they lost him in the Bell to Miami deal.  In fact, a lot of the posts were like "He's Cleveland's problem now".   Remember they said the same thing when we got Joe Carter so there is that and Albert Belle came with his issues as well.  Both turned out to be very good players in Cleveland so let's hope Watson does, too.  Still, he is all potential at this point and it would be nice if we can calm him down and get him focused and going in the right direction, i.e., on the steep part of his learning curve.

Justin Boyd - At first when we got Boyd AND a PTBNL for Benson I was pleasantly surprised.  Then I started to ask myself why would Cincinnati send their 2022 second round pick to Cleveland just months after they drafted him?  Well Boyd was hurt most of 2023 but when he played his 2023 numbers and 2022 numbers, combined, shows that he might indeed just suck.  This would explain why the Reds would dump him like a hot potato, wanting to get a mistake of a draft pick out of their organization before he flames out.  We will see but their quick trade of Boyd combined with his performance since turning pro makes me wonder if we just took on someone else's problems in exchange for Benson.

AJ Hajjar - Anyone who watched him pitch this year would have to say, WTF?  The last thing he looks like is a relatively highly drafted college pitcher.  He looked more like a thrower that some team took in round 12 with the hope they could turn him into a pitcher.  When you are in A+ ball walking almost a guy and inning your career is in trouble.  Was this bad scouting by the Guardians or bad coaching by them or just a blip in his development?  Not sure but there are organizational, roster-filelr pitchers in the Guardians organization who have a much better chance than Hajjar to play in the majors.

Ross Carver - Carver came over in the Vargas trade as an interesting curveball pitcher who, under the Guardians tutelage, could add enough to his fastball to become a successful ML pitcher in the ilk of Aaron Civale.  His 2023, which did include significant time on the injured list, was anything but encouraging.  Hopefully 2024 will be a healthy, productive one for him and he will approach his Aaron Civale-like upside.  If he doesn't improve dramatically in 2024, he will likely go the way of Damon Casetta-Stubbs.

Look, people say our bullpen needs to be better, our hitting needs to be better, etc., etc.  The one thing that will fix everything is that our FO needs to be a hell of a lot better than they have been and turn some of this excess into talent.  I have no faith in that FO right now.  And we have all this minor league talent that has been beaten down and devalued by not giving them a chance to show what they are worth.  THAT is the next wave of Cleveland prospects who could go on the left hand column with little or maybe marginal returns for their prospect capital while our prospects go on and have good careers elsewhere.

The FO sucks at trading and my opinion is that the one, single area that needs to improve the most for our team to be successful is the FO ability to make useful trades where we get back short-term and long-term, as much or more than we give up.  Heaven knows we are due for a few of those trades to make up for the pathetic FO performance over the past 3.5 years.

Recent Trades and FA Signings - Part 1 - What We Traded and Received in Recent Trades

 As I have said before, since trading Mike Clevinger in July of 2020 we have made exactly ONE trade where we came close to receiving than we gave up:  David Fry for J.C. Mejia.  Yes, the Myles Straw trade is very debatable as we received the immediate jolt of gold glove-level defense, something that we had been missing, along with the promise of stability in CF (something that was missing in recent years), more speed on the bases and the hope of decent OB production from Straw.  While the latter didn't occur ,it is hard to argue with the defensive stability Straw has created.  Yes, Phil Maton has been a serviceable reliever for the Astros but it is really Yainer Diaz who is now making this trade look bad.  Remember, at the time, Diaz was simply a good (not great) hitting guy in Lynchburg who looked like his path to the majors was more as a DH than as a catcher...plus he was probably 3 years away from even sniffing the majors given that his highest assignment was in A ball at the aforementioned Lynchburg.  So I am willing to give the FO a mulligan on this trade as it was a  a huge gain in present value (at the time) for Cleveland.  It just may turn out to be a long-term disaster...but isn't that trade deadline deals are SUPPOSED to be for the buyer and the seller?

Aside from that, since July of 2020, our FO has mostly sucked big time on trades.  Let's look at what we got back in trades since opening day 2021:

June 2021 - Jake Bauers traded to Seattle for a PTBNL (recieved Damon-Casetta Stubbs as PTBNL).  Bauers played for Seattle for the rest of the season.

July 2021 - Traded Eddie Rosario to Atlanta for Pablo Sandoval, then waived Sandoval.  Rosario MVP of NLDS.  Still playing for Atlanta

July 2021 - Traded Jordan Luplow and DJ Johnson for Peyton Battenfield - Luplow and Johnson played for Tampa Bay with Luplow going 2-7 with a HR in the 2021 ALDS.

July 2021 - Traded Phil Maton and Yainer Diaz for Myles Straw - We all know how this turned out

July 2021 - Traded Cesar Hernandez for Konnor Pilkington - They got little out of Hernandez and we got less out of Pilkington.

November 2021 - Traded JC Mejia to Milwaukee for PTBNL (David Fry obtained) We have already talked about this one

November 2021 - Waived Kyle Nelson (claimed off waivers by Arizona) - Nelson has pitched  2 years for Arizona, posting a 2.13 ERA in 2022 and a 4.68 ERA in 2023 and has pitched twice in Arizona's post-season run

November 2021 - Traded Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers - We all know how this turned out

December 2021 - Signed Enyel De Los Santos to a minor league deal Best FA signing over the last couple of years (along with bringing Brian Shaw back one last time)

April 2022 - Traded Bradley Zimmer for Anthony Castro Nothing to be excited about for either team

May 2022 - Traded Yu Chang to Pittsburgh Pirates for cash Cash is never something you want to get for any asset

November 2022 - Traded Nolan Jones for Juan Brito - The final story on this hasn't been written yet

November 2022 - Traded Carlos Vargas for Ross Carver - Vargas opened the season with Ari but ended up on the IL again for their AAA team

November 2022 - Traded Jose Fermin to St. Louis for cash - Fermin played at the end of 2023 for St. Louis batting .235 in 51 ABs

December 2022 - Traded Owen Miller to Milwaukee for PTBNL - Settled for cash, instead - Miller helped buoy up during the first half of the season playing multiple postions with an OPS of .674.

December 2022 - Signed Josh Bell as a FA

December 2022 - Signed Mike Zunino as a FA

February 2023 - Trade Will Benson to Cincinnati for Justin Boyd and AJ Hajjar - We all know how this one turned out for Cincinnati.  Boyd was injured most of the year, hitting .150 in 50 ABs and Hajjar walked a guy an inning for Lake County.

May 2023 - Traded Konnor Pilkington to Arizona for cash - Again, unless it is Norm Cash in his prime, cash is never a good thing.  

June 202 - Traded Richie Palacios to St. Louis for cash - Again, there is that 4-letter word.  Palacios hit 6 HR and 6 doubles with an OPS of .823 in September for the Cardinals, more HRs than Will Brennan hit in an entire season.  

July 2023 - Traded Amed Rosario to LA Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard - Rosario played a utility/PR role for LA and Syndergaard was DFA'd before the end of August.

July 2023 - Traded Josh Bell to Miami for Khalil Watson and Jean Segura.  Released Segura - Bell powered Miami to the post season.  Watson had an OPS of .748 with Lake County.  The Guardians are on the hook for $10 million owed to Segura in 2024/5.  If Bell rejects his played option for 2024 getting rid of Bell will have cost the Guardians $8 million and they get Watson.  Miami would end up renting Bell for about $2 million and saving the $10 million owed to Segura meaning, essentially,  they got Bell and $8 million for Watson.

July 2023 - Traded Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay for Kyle Manzardo We will see how this plays out.  it has a chance to be a big win for Cleveland but, unless disaster strikes for Civale, it will never be a big loss for Tampa who essentially invented the opener because they never have enough SP.

August 2023 - Claimed Ramon Laureano off waivers from Oakland Maybe the worst move of the season as it is possible that this move will result in bringing back this overpaid, 30-something AAAA player back in 2024, wasting PT and a roster spot on Laureano when a rookie could use that time.

August 2023 - Traded cash to LA Dodgers for Kole Calhoun - Good move to keep Francona from losing his mind in the last month of the season by having to play rookies; olive branch to veterans for trading away Civale, Rosario and Bell and getting no help back.

August 2023 - Claimed Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore and Reynaldo Lopez off waivers from White Sox - Maybe their best move of 2023, it only cost them about $4 million for these 3 veteran rentals.  Helped save the young arms and gave some stability to the bullpen helping limit young starter innings and helping set up Clase for his league-leading saves total.

AFL - Guardians Results So Far

 OK, with about two weeks of play to go in the AFL season, let's take a look at how players from the Guardians' organization are doing.

1. Kyle Manzardo - Factoring in the offensive advantage that players see in the AFL, Manzardo's fall season in mirroring what he did after the trade to Cleveland:

Statistics in Columbus: 93 PA 16 R 20 H 8 (2B) 0 (3B) 6 HR 16 RBI 12 BB 14 K .256/.348/.590/.938

AFL Stats: 60 PA 15 R 15 H 5 (2B) 1 (3B) 5 HR 13 RBI  6 BB 16 K .283/.367/.698/1.066

Looks like he may be selling out for power a little more with additional evidence provided by the length of his HRs for the Peoria team.    

So it looks like Manzardo is having a solid AFL putting him in an even better position to play for the Guardians next year.  Don't think that his AFL performance his chances of being on the opening day roster, however.  I think he will need about a month with Columbus but the Guardians may, as a PR move, force the issue.  There are plenty of guys who deserve chances before the LHH DH over 1B Manzardo.

2. Ryan Webb - Mirages happen in the desert all the time.  Sometimes they are seen in spring training, sometimes they are seen in the AFL.  So I can't fully quantitate what we are seeing from Ryan Webb so far.  What we know is that he is striking out a lot of guys in the AFL (2+ per inning) compared to his other professional performance (1+ per inning).  The competition level in the AFL is supposed to be much superior to the Midwest League so that is a positive.  It does appear that his AFL numbers mirror his numbers as a RS junior (his draft year):

RS junior year:  59.2 IP, 43 H, 10 HR, 17 BB, 88 K

AFL:10.1 IP, 8 H, 3 HR 7 BB 21 K 

These last 2-3 outings for him will be telling because he did get rocked in his last outing meaking me wonder whether the hitters, in a small league like this, are just figuring him out or not.  He has a chance to come close to matching Manzardo in impact on his prospect status if he has 2 more games like his second start (4.1 IP, 1 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K).  

3. Chase DeLauter - Take away his opening two games in the AFL and he has, simply, really struggled.  We should remember that this kid did not even have a full minor league season (and only a few games at AA) before he was thrown in the deep end in the AFL.  His overall results don't mean much, negatively, given that but he clearly hasn't placed himself on the express train to Cleveland with his performance so far and that is a good thing as he won't have to be protected from the Rule 5 until after the 2025 season.  That is good considering his health and the mounting questions surrounding the weirdness of his swing and how upper minor league pitchers will attack it and how DeLauter will react.

4. Ross Carver - The Guardians must have seen something in Carver as they traded him for the ML-ready flamethrower Carlos Vargas (opening day roster Arizona Diamondbacks).  however, most of 2023 was a lost season for Carver due to injury and, except for a few cases, poor performance (6.53 ERA).  He did have a great starte on August 19th (6 IP 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB 12 K) and his last two starts of the regular season (10.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 9 K).  His assignment to the AFL was, ostensibly, to make up for the innings he lost during the season and while he hasn't done great (3.60 ERA), he has struck out 12 in 10 innings so far.  He does not have to be protected against the Rule 5 until after the 2024 season. 

5. Bradley Hanner - Let's level set here.  Hanner was a MINOR LEAGUE rule 5 pick last year. Most MiLB rule 5 picks never even get to the majors and Hanner, while he was good in his first exposure to AA in 2023, is almost 25 and hasn't made it to AAA yet.  Still, his performance in the AFL certainly has not hurt his status with the Guardians.  If they roster him against the Rule 5, however, it will once again give me serious doubts about the abilities of Guardians player evaluation personnel.

6. Christian Cairo - One of the once-a-week AFL part-timers, he has made the most of his limited opportunities to put up a .348 BA on 23 ABs with a HR and 2 BB for a .901 OPS with only 4 Ks.  Still, guys with lifetime .212 BA in the minors are generally not considered priority prospects, unfortunate as we spent a high draft pick (4th round) overdrafting a guy likely in part because of his baseball heritage.  Still hard to understand why they just didn't send Tyler Freeman to the AFL to give him some ABs to replace the ones he missed sitting on Cleveland's bench AND to work on his OF play.  Instead, Cairo spent time in the OF in the AFL to increase his versatility.  Makes no sense to me.

7. Eric Sabrowski -  Sabrowski, about to turn 26 years old, has been injured most of his career and logged 21.2 innings in Akron this year pushing his grand total of professional experience since being drafted in 2018, to 28 games and 50.2 innings.  The third of three organizational filler guys on this team from the Guardians (along with Cairo and Hanner), I think we could have found a true prospect to send who might have benefitted from the extra reps (Ethan Hankins?).  In the AFL Sabrowski has pitched 5 times for 5 IP and given up 2 H and 2 ER while walking EIGHT and striking out eight.

SUMMARY

Good that the Guardians sent true prospects Manzardo, DeLauter and Webb to the AFL to get extra reps to make up for the time they missed this season.  Ditto to some extent for Carver.  However, Hanner, Sabrowski and Cairo were headscratching assignments to me.  There HAD to be other guys in the organization who were more priority prospects who they could have sent to the AFL.  Guys like Ethan Hankings, Cody Morris, George Valera, Tyler Freeman and even David Fry (work as a catcher) could have gotten extra work in that they needed due to lack of opportunities this year due to injuries and lack of playing opportunities during the regular season.  Heck, even Noel and Rodriguez could have beneftted from extra reps as could have Tena, due to sitting on the bench so much in Cleveland, stunting his ability to playing in Columbus.