Rule 5 Thoughts - 2010

Tomorrow is the Rule 5 draft.

If you don't know anything about it know this: It is totally unpredictable and after guys who no one predicted get picked, no one is ever able to figure out who will actually stick the next spring. 

That being said, here is who the Indians are most likely to lose in the major league phase, with percentages:

Josh Rodriguez: 75% likelihood of being selected.  He's a utility infielder who has some pop and and some upside. 

Adam Miller - 50% likelihood:  Yeah, he may not be healthy but it will only cost $25,000 for a team to find out if they have to return him to the Indians.

Paolo Espino - 25% likelihood: Teams may want to look at him as a reliever with starter upside, similar to what Hector Ambriz did last year for the Indians.

Matt McBride - 25% likelihood: Some uninformed team might take him with the idea they can convert him back to catcher or as a utility guy who can catch part of the time.  For $25,000 it might be worth the gamble.  Otherwise, he doesn't fit the mold of Rule 5 guys.

Connor Graham - 10% likelihood:  Some team might take his arm but, after this year, I doubt it.  He is all over the place with his command.

Minor League Phase - We don't often talk about this phase but guys do get selected.

John Drennen - This could be the surprise for the Indians this year.  I don't think they will protect him on the AAA roster and I think he will be snagged by some team.

Juan Aponte

Beau Mills - Given his dismal performance, the Indians may expose him to the minor league phase, but I doubt it as it would put too much egg on their face for picking him in the first round of a relatively recent draft.  Still, you never know.  If he is on the AAA roster, no way this guy gets picked in the major league portion (yuck, yuck, now he is almost guaranteed to be picked in that phase!)

Carlton Smith - Don't be surprised if the Indians expose him to the minor league phase.  I don't think they have much faith in his ability.

Travis Turek - I could see a team snagging him and I could see the Indians not even protecting him on the AAA roster.

So, there it is in writing.  We will see what happens tomorrow.