Draft 2020 Analysis

The 2020 draft is over.   Here are my thoughts on the Indians' draft.

1. MONEY - I don't think there is a better team in baseball at understanding the finances of the draft than the Indians.   They always seem to have enough money to sign the players they want and always seem to find the gems late in the draft that other teams can't find.

So, when you take a look at their draft picks you see a familiar pattern.   You see picks that will save you some money and players drafted later on who will require above slot bonuses.

This is not like other years, however.   If you fail to sign even one player from this draft your draft crop takes a hit as there are only 6 players you drafted.  

2. PRESENT AND FUTURE VALUE - The Indians had only 6 picks but they found a way to help themselves in the near future and give themselves hope for the more distant future.  

3. MIDDLE INFIELDERS:  The Indians drafted2 high school shortstops, or 1/3 of their selections.  

4. COLLEGE PITCHABILITY PITCHERS: The Indians drafted 3 college pitchers and all of them are the pitchability variety.  They have had success in the past and they went to that well again.

5. WILD CARD: The Indians drafted high school outfielder Petey Halpin in the 3rd round.  This is the riskiest pick in the draft for the Indians.   He will likely require an overslot bonus and the Indians track record in drafting high school outfielders is, well, pathetic.   So, we have a guy who is a risky selection in the two biggest risk areas: cost and floor/ceiling ratio.

6. THE REST OF THE "DRAFT" IS STILL TO COME:  Yes, there is more to this draft than just the players who were actually drafted.   Teams can sign as many draft-eligible, undrafted players as they want, starting on 9 am on Sunday, June 14th...providing they don't sign any of them for more than $20,000.  Here is the way I see the remaining groups of players left in this draft:

a. College seniors - I think this will be business as usual as I think a number of these guys will sign.   I don't think the numbers will be as high as normal years, however, as there is no baseball to be played this year so roster filler/organizational players are not really needed.  Still, college seniors are used to signing for peanuts and I think their leverage is lower than normal as they probably know teams are on tighter draft budgets than normal and they may not even get that $1,000 they have gotten in the past.

b. Unsigned college junior (or RS sophomore) pitchers in the top 200 prospects - I think we could see a number of  these types of pitchers, signed in this group.   College pitchers tend to be closer to the majors than college hitters and top prospects will even be closer and I think teams will try to leverage whatever they can find to sign these guys.  Here is one way: Sign them to major league contracts.   Guys on the 40 man roster make about $45,000 a year compared to $14,000 for minor leaguers not on the roster.   Plus there is talk about having 50 guys on the roster for the season meaning these guys could get ML coaching and a bigger than normal chance to play in the majors this year.   Additionally, putting one of these guys on the 40 man roster benefits the player as it potentially starts two "clocks".   First, if the player is not ready for the majors the team will have to burn one of their three options on that player if they send him to the minors.   Thus he will likely reach the point of having to be kept on the ML roster or DFA'd sooner than the average prospect.  Second, if he plays in the majors it starts his free agent clock.    I really think teams will see the advantages here outweigh the downsides.  I think teams can really get value here if they are just willing to gamble on their development staff.

c. college junior pitchers outside the top 200 prospects - Many of these guys will just go back to school for their senior year unless they are the typical late-round college junior pitcher who is just done with college and sees minor league baseball as his lottery ticket.  

d.  college junior hitters - Like the college junior pitchers outside the top 200, I think ALL draft eligible college hitters will return to college unless they are organizational filler level players.   Hitters take longer to develop and I don't see any team taking a chance on a college hitter by placing him on their 40 man roster and I don't see any college hitter who is any good at all settling for $20,000 and $14,000 a season when he can go back to school and maybe make $200,000 as a top 10-round, senior-signing bonus pool saver next year.

e. junior college players - I think few, if any, of these guys will sign unless they are the end-of-the-draft, organizational filler types.

f. High school players - I don't think you will see ANY of these guys sign.   There is no need and none are ready to be rostered on the ML roster.  Most if not all the talented ones can go to college.   I think you might see a good number of the talented ones go to junior college if they had really intended to sign but a good number of the talented high school players with big time college commitments will honor those commitments.   The only ones I see signing are the same type of low-level high school hitters who don't really want to go to college and who expected a small bonus in the first place.

 OK, with all this said what do I think the Indians will do?  Well, for years the Indians have said that their Latin American scouting program is built on outworking other teams as they don't have the money to outspend other teams.   With any luck they will do this again in this rush for undrafted amateurs which looks and feels to me a lot like a typical Latin signing year.  What will they look for?  The Indians have a great track record of finding quality relievers late in the draft.  They also signed a quality catcher in Roberto Perez later.   On the other hand they have not had good luck signing college position players or high school hitters late in the draft.   I don't see them signing a lot of guys but I do see them signing 15-20 guys, mostly pitchers and catchers.   I hope they have the guts and are able to outwork other teams to find some of those college junior pitchers who will sign for $20,000 while signing a major league contract.    


7.  SUMMARY - I really can't do a summary of this draft until all the undrafted players are signed.   Still, just looking at their actual draft picks you have to say they did really well IF they can sign all these guys.    I don't know if any team in this draft did as well as the Indians from top to bottom.   If they can sign a few quality undrafted players I think they could have the best draft in baseball this year.