Prospect Evaluation: the outfielders

 OK, it's time to kick off the discussion of the pros and cons of which prospects we want to roster this winter.  As I have said, this is a tricky proposition as for each guy we put on the roster in November it is likely that a current player will either be removed by DFA or trade or release.  

So let's start with our outfield prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 this year:

WILL BENSON 

SUMMARY:Benson has been on Indians' prospect lists since he was drafted in 2016.  He has struggled with his BA (.212) although is power and OBP numbers remain strong, the latter due to a strong walk rate.  He has decent speed and a good arm.  He has 5 1/2 years in to his minor league career so the Indians will control his rights for one more year if they don't lose him in the Rule 5.

PROS TO ROSTERING HIM:  With his work this year at AA and AAA it appears that Benson may be on the cusp of a breakthrough.  He has power, speed and good OB skills, making him a relatively perfect 4th/5th outfielder for a rebuilding team if they take him in the Rule 5.

CONS:  Benson has a historically low BA and strikes out at a high rate.  He only hit .155 at AAA since his promotion, making him less attractive to a team fishing to find quality Rule 5 eligible prospects.

DECISION:  DON'T ROSTER - I see it as a low likelihood he will be drafted and very little chance he would last with his new team even if they did draft him.

GEORGE VALERA

SUMMARY: Valera was the #5 prospect coming into this season for the Indians.  He rose up to AA this year after starting the year at High A.  His numbers have remained solid as he moved up the ladder.

PROS: He is a top prospect with very good power which will likely only get better.  He has a chance to be a 5-tool player.

CONS: Likely he won't get to the majors until 2023 at the earliest meaning he will be dead weight on the 40 man for maybe 2 years.

DECISION: ROSTER

OSCAR GONZALEZ

SUMMARY: Gonzalez has always shown flashes of becoming a power-hitting outfielder.  He has little speed and is only an acceptable OFer, probably limited to LF in the long run and his walk rates are dismal, although they have improved this year along with his power.   If he isn't rostered he will likely be lost as a 6-year minor league free agent.

PROS:  He is close to major league ready.   He hits for power and he hits for average.   If we don't roster him we will likely lose him for nothing.   We don't have a lot of outfielders who could play in Cleveland next year and Gonzalez is one of those so adding him to the roster adds depth for 2022.  He is still young at 23 so could be approaching his prime as a player.

CONS: Gonzalez has never appeared high on Indians' prospect lists.  His breakout year might be a mirage.  His low walk rate may be exposed in the majors.

DECISION: ROSTER.  The Indians would be gambling on Gonzalez continuing to progress on his hit and power tools as well as his plate discipline.   Given his young age it would likely be a mistake to allow him to escape as a 6-year free agent, especially considering the dearth of outfield prospects who could impact the ML team in 2022.

STEVEN KWAN

SUMMARY:  Kwan has steadily worked his way up the Indians' system.  He profiles very similarly to Ka'ai Tom as he doesn't have great power speed or OB skills and his defense is only average.  Basically he is solid across the board with his hit tool being above average.   His most compelling stat is that he is 23 and at AAA.

PROS: He is young and dominating, hit-tool-wise, in the high minors.   He is an on-base machine and has shown a little power this year.  He is almost major-league ready, which makes him a rarity in the Indians' organization.  Plus his swing-and-miss percentage is sick, easily being the best in the minors.

CONS: He isn't a true centerfielder.  His hit tool is good but he doesn't have a lot of speed.   While he is a good player his tools don't flash as being any more than a 4th outfielder.   We saw how Ka'ai Tom was exposed this year and I don't see Kwan being any different.  

SUMMARY: DON'T ROSTER - This is a tough one but the Indians didn't even want to bring back Tom when the Pirates offered him back recently.   I see value in Kwan but I just don't see us spending a roster spot on him.  He profiles as a likely Rule 5 selection based on his AAA experience and his ability to function as a 4th outfielder but  I think it is worth the gamble to not roster him.

ALEXFRI PLAMEZ

SUMMARY:   This is Planez's first full season in professional baseball and his season was clearly breakout as he oozes power, speed and defense potential, including an above-average arm.   He is on the upswing and likely will breakthrough to the Indians' top 30 prospects this winter.

PROS: A guy that is being screwed by the pandemic and the ridiculous Rule 5 rules regarding Latin signees, his tools just ooze superstar potential if he puts it all together.   Although he has only played at low A he could easily be hidden on the roster of a team like Baltimore or Arizona next year with the goal of getting a stud player for peanuts.   

CONS: He is so far away from the majors that rostering him now means another dead roster spot for a couple of years and blowing through option years without a realistic chance of impacting the major league club before 2024, at the earliest.  

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER.   I love this guy's tools and how he obviously is about to go to a steeper part of his improvement curve.  I think he currently projects as an average to slightly above average major league outfielder but a team that drafted him would be foolish, given how far away from the majors he is.

NEXT TIME; Middle infield prospects eligible for the Rule 5.  Which ones should we roster.