Prospect Evaluation: The Pitchers

 Normally, your 40-man roster in the winter includes 22-25 pitchers, depending on the state of your farm system, your major league team and who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

Right now, based on the projected returnees from our current roster, I estimate that we have 15 pitchers who I think we should keep.   

That leaves room for us to add, in some way, pitchers to the roster.   Let's take a look at the Rule 5-eligible pitchers who might warrant being added to the roster to protect them this winter.

CODY MORRIS

SUMMARY -  Morris spent more than half the season on the DL.  When he came back he looked like a major league pitcher.   He was throwing mid 90s with a great breaking ball.   He looked dominant in AA and then, surprisingly, moved up to AAA and looked even more dominant.  

PROS:  He looks like he can help in 2022 and then even more so in future years.   Starting pitchers with his credentials don't make it through the Rule 5

CONS: He has an injury history and not a very long track record, at all, in the upper minors.  

DECISION: PUT ON THE ROSTER.  As I said, he won't make it through the Rule 5 and, as a guy with success in AAA, he appears almost major-league ready.

JUAN HILLMAN

SUMMARY: Hillman has had a slow but steady development in the Indians farm system.  He has appeared on Indians' prospect lists for years.  He has rarely flashed lights out stuff but he has alwasy shown the ability to string good stretches together.   He is currently 24 years old and has not really pitched significantly in AAA.   Also, given that his first year was in 2015, if he is not rostered he becomes a minor league free agent this winter and can sign with any club.

PROS:  He has a good prospect pedigree and his advance is steady.  He should be ready for his first ML work in 2022.   He can walk as a minor league free agent.

CONS: He is active on social media which the Indians are not fans of.  He has not shown lights out tools so his upsdie currently looks like 5th starter, mop-up guy and, if they roster him, they might want to look at him in the bullpen. 

DECISION: ROSTER HIM.   This is not the ideal decision but we are out of time.  Not rostering him means we don't think he is a prospect any more.  This decision will play out long before the Rule 5 draft as he will have to be rostered right after the WS is done, long before the ML rosters are frozen (against adding more of your own prospects) before the Rule 5 draft.   

JOEY CANTILLO

SUMMARY: Cantillo was an important part of the Clevinger trade to San Diego.  HE missed essentially all of this season and was listed in the teens in recent Indians prospect rankings.  So he is not an incredibly good prospect and hasn't really pitched in 2 years due to COVID and his arm injury.  He has never pitched in AA.

PROS: Highly ranked prospect, left handed.

CONS: Injured all year which might give teams pause in drafting him, along with not pitching above A ball.  The A ball thing and his injury this year means rostering him may create a dead roster space (not helping the ML team until 2024 while using all his options up before he is ML ready. 

DECISION: ROSTER HIM.   Another tough call but just think of Luis Oviedo who now belongs to the Pirates.  Cantillo fits that same mold and we can't really afford to lose a big part of the Clevinger trade to the Rule 5.   Remember, it is NOT a performance issue, it is an injury issue.   If we don't protect him it is very likely that we will lose him.

KONNOR PILKINGTON

SUMMARY: The only player received in the Cesar Hernandez trade, Pilkington is a pitchability guy who is solidly through with AA ball.   This means that he could be projected to be a starting pitching option for Cleveland in the last half of 2022 or the beginning of 2023.

PROS:  His conquering of AA means there is something good there, despite the fact that he is not a highly ranked prospect.  

CONS: Not a highly ranked prospect.

DECISION: ROSTER HIM - This is a tough call for me but I don't think for the Indians front office staff.   When you trade a year and a half of the defending AL doubles champion and gold glove second baseman to a division rival AND that division rival thinks so much of that guy that they use their stud rookie secondbaseman as trade bait for a setup guy, you can bet the FO guys will roster him.   If they trade Hernandez and lose Pilkington to the Rule 5 it would be major egg on their face and this FO doesn't like egg on their face.

ADAM SCOTT

SUMMARY: He looked like he was going to be the lefty version of Cody Morris as, like Morris, he was hurt most of the year and burned through AA on his return.   The difference is that Scott stalled at AAA a little more than Morris and, unfortunately, there wasn't enough time to evaluate his worth as a close to the majors option.  

PROS; Scott was a relatively high draft pick who appeared on the end of some prospect rankings for the Indians.  He is left-handed and, if the results this year are to be trusted, relatively close to the majors in terms of his readiness.

CONS: There just isn't enough data that would compel the Indians to protect him.  

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER HIM - Unless he is placed in the Arizona Fall League and just dominates, teams may not see his potential.   That being said, he is a relatively low risk Rule 5 pick as he could easily be hiddent for a year as a lefty long reliever.   On paper, he looks like a safer gamble than Luis Oviedo and we know how that ended.

JUAN MOTA

SUMMMARY: Huge fastball, not much control

PROS: His fastball means that, one day, he could project as a major league reliever and a team could dream on him putting it together this year.

CONS: He has the one loud tool but not the performance to say that tool is anymore close the ML ready..  

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER.   There are just too many question marks here.   That being said, he fits the profile of a Rule 5 pick but I think we should let that happen.   I think Mota comes back by the end of spring training if he is drafted.  Just too much work left to be done on this project to keep around.  That being said, a

JERSON RAMIREZ

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER - He is still too young and inexperienced.   We won't have the roster space and we can't have any more dead roster space than we will already.

There may be other guys like Tim Herrin and Nic Enright who might be interesting but, with their stuff, they look like, at best, the next coming of Cam Hill.

OTHER PITCHING PROSPECTS

There will be several other minor league pitchers under scrutiny for the Rule 5 draft.   If we DFA guys like Anthony Gose, Cam Hill, Kyle Nelson, Scott Moss and Justin Garza and they make it through waivers and re-sign with us they will be targets.  

Guys like Aaron Pinto, Nic Enright, Kirk McCarty, Robert Broom, Tanner Tully, Ben Krauth, Skylar Arias, Dakody Clemmer and a number of others have an outside chance of getting drafted in the Rule 5, either in the major or minor league portions, depending if they are on the Columbus list.