Prospect Evaluation: Infielders

 If this organization has any strong suits they are pitching and middle infielders.  In this post I will talk about the middle infield prospects who we will have to roster this winter.   Let's dig in.

JOHNKENSY NOEL

SUMMARY - He has burst on the scene big-time this year, showing immense power, great batting average and not very good defense.  His OB skills are not great.   He also showed a knack for the big moment, driving in 65 runs (on 19 HRs) in only 250 ABs.   Basically, he shows all the hitting skills necessary to be an above average big league hitter.   And he did this at the age of 19.  

PROS TO ROSTERING HIM - He has big league power right now and hits for average.   I hate to make this comp on him but Albert Pujols was in much the same place when he broke out with the Cardinals, basically jumping from High A to the majors and never looking back.  A more recent comp is Anthony Santander.  Either way, you want to protect him.   

CONS -  I have talked about dead roster spots meaning a spot on the 40-man roster who won't help the Indians for 2-3 years and may be out of options before he is completely ready to stay in the majors.   People are talking about a guy needing close to 2000 minor league ABs to be completely ready for the majors. Noel has 540 and he is just 19 years old meaning that he may need the whole 2000 (see Bobby Bradley)..   

DECISION - ROSTER HIM - Right now Noel looks like he might have the potential to be a generational player.  again, not to throw comps on this guy but think Manny Ramirez.  You swallow hard and protect this guy and pray that he continues his steep, upward development trending and that he gets to the majors for good before his options run out.

TYLER FREEMAN

SUMMARY - Freeman has hit at every level.   He suffered a significant injury at the end of the season which may have set him back a year in his development, meaning the Indians may not get anything out of him until at least 2023.  Not really a dead roster spot but not one that will impact the team in 2022. He is a baseball player.

PROS - He hits.  He plays middle infield.   He is a gamer,   He is close to the majors.

CONS - He doesn't hit for power.   We have seen with Owen Miller how minor league stats can mean nothing and Owen Miller may be a good comp for Freeman.   He was dinged up most of this season meaning, although he was healthy in past seasons, will his body stand up to full season play year in and year out?

DECISION - ROSTER HIM.   Again, you just can't let guys like this go!

BRAYAN ROCCHIO

SUMMARY - He has succeeded so far in the minors and has succeeded MORE as he has gone up the ladder, never blinking at a new challenge.   He will have to fall in line behind Gabriel Arias but Rocchio appears to be the real deal, separating himself from other top middle infield prospects like Aaron Bracho, Junior Sanquintin, Gabriel Arias, Jose Fermin and Marco Gonzalez.  

PROS: He is a middle infielder, he hits and he can play SS.  He has improved at every level

CONS: None

DECISION: ROSTER HIM

RICHARD PALACIOS

SUMMARY - Palacios had a breakout season this year.   Part of that was that, due to injuries and the pandemic, he only had 169 ABs as a professional before this year.  He shows a really good walk rate and hit tool and doubles power but no HR power to this point. 

PROS: His breakout year is at the top of the minors and shows the potential he had can actually come to fruition.   The fact that he can play on the IF and in the OF is another plus as is his very good walk rate and some base stealing abilty.   Clearly, this guy can stuff a stat sheet.

CONS: Think of Ernie Clement.   Palacios is better offensively but not as good defensively but both have something in common: they cannot impact a game by themselves.   At best they are complementary players, at worst they are fringe major leagues. 

DECISION: ROSTER HIM - As it is too early to tell if Palacios ends up like Clement or like a host of other ML players who have blossomed in the high minors and continues that in the majors AND because he is almost major league ready, you have to keep him.   In the best of all possible worlds a guy without power or extreme speed or extreme defense wouldn't be protected from the Rule 5.  But given that he is so early in his development and his floor looks plenty high right now, you have to keep him.  If someone falls through the cracks, though, it is likely to be a guy like Palacios.  Let's hope that doesn't happen.

JOSE TENA

SUMMARY - Moving up to High A he had a solid season and even did well in the playoffs with Akron.  He showed a spike in his power this year and an OPS that looks good for a 20 year old at High A.  another victim of MLB counting the pandemic year as a minor league season AND the MLB rule saying that an August signee has to count that year as a professional season, he has missed two years.  

PROS - His spike in performance this year was not TOTALLY unexpected so this looks a lot more like good development instead of a flash-in-the-pan season.  He is a middle infielder with power who hit well at a young age at high A.  He has become a real prospect who cannot afford to be lost

CONS - He is young and has had one good season as is likely to be more dead roster space as he will probably take until 2024 to be a reasonable option, meaning he will have burned two options before he can even help the ML team.

DECISION: ROSTER HIM - Arrrgh, this is the problem.  We have so many of these young players who are dead roster space that your only real choices are to trade them before November or roster them.  Leaving them exposed to the Rule 5 is not an option.

JOSE FERMIN

SUMMARY - Another middle infielder, Fermin doesn't flash any power potential and his stolen base numbers cratered this year.   He showed natural progression this year and some power towards the end of the season.

PROS - He is close to the majors, has been trained at multiple positions and there is that late power thing.   He is a good defender and is close to the majors, maybe being able to impact the major league roster in 2022.

CONS - Middle infielders with no power or speed and only middling walk rates better be Omar Vizquel.   Fermin is not that guy and is just a good, solid prospect.  

DECISION - DON'T ROSTER HIM - This one hurts but we knew at some point this would happen.   There are just too many roster spots for guys like Fermin to elbow his way in.   My best solution is to try to package Fermin and Kwan and get a pitching or catching prospect who was drafted in 2020 or 2021 (so they wouldn't be Rule 5 eligble for a couple of years.  Otherwise, odds are good you would lose one or both in the upcoming Rule 5.

Guys like Aaron Bracho, Andruw Monasterio, Victor Nova and Marcos Gonzalez, among others, are either older for their levels or have not performed at a level that would get them selected.   Bracho, in particular, has had a disappointing season but was a top 10 prospect last winter so some team may take a flyer on him in the Rule 5.   Still, not rostering guys like this is a chance we would have to take.

 Next up: catching prospects