Final pre-draft mock draft - Warning or celebration signs?

 Ok, about 60 hours from the start of the 2022 first year player draft.   

So, I thought I would do this one a little bit different.  Drafts are so fluid that it is hard to decide whether a particular pick was a win or a loss, depending on who was available at the time.  We won't truly know for years but, at least at the time of the draft, we will have an idea.   

To give some historical context, when the Indians drafted Beau Mills (13th overall, 2007) I knew instantly they did not maximize the value of that pick.  First round selections right after Mills in that draft came guys like Jason Heyward, JP Arencibia, Devin Mesoraco and Rick Porcello.  

In 2019 the then Indians took Christian Cairo and Yordy Valdes, both light-hitting, slick-fielding middle infielders in the 4th and 2nd rounds of the draft, respectively.   Neither has really panned out at all at this point, clearly matching the floor predicted for them at the time they signed.

Yes, lots of guys bloom late (Nolan Jones, Will Benson), guys are astute picks among several available players of about the same skill level (Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams, Logan T. Allen) and reach towards their ceilings predicted at draft time and some guys picked in the first few rounds overachieve (Shan Bieber, Aaron Civale).  We can never tell on draft night which they will be.

But we can look for warning signs like the ones seen for Mills, Valdes and Cairo.  We can also look for areas where we have potentially made huge misses recently (e.g., high school hitters) and areas where we have drafted overachievers (college pitchers).   We can also look for areas of need (catching, left-handed pitching, power hitting corner infielders) and see if the Guardians have considered those areas when making a pick.

With all that said, let's jump into my final pre-draft mock draft.

First round (16th overall)

Catching - Kevin Parada will be gone, but if Daniel Susac falls to the Guardians they need to draft him.  He is an offense-first college catcher and a good value at this pick so he would be a 'win' at this spot.  Not drafting him would be a real question mark, especially depending on who they actually would draft.  However, if the Guardians pick Logan Tanner, a defense-first catcher at this point, that is an extreme negative for me. 

Infield - Zach Neto is a win with this pick.   Jett Williams, given how bad the Guardians are with developing HS hitters and the fact that he is 5'8', 

Outfield - Justin Crawford raises red flags for me given that we don't do a good job of developing HS bats.  Only Chase DeLauter moves the needle for me here but I think there is too much risk of total failure compared to the reward of his high ceiling for me.  Any other college outfielder will either be gone or would be an overdraft (big negative) for me here.

Pitching - Dylan Lesko, despite his TJ surgery would be a win for me. However, picking Kumar Rocker would be a big negative.  We tried that with Brady Aiken and look how that worked out.  Kumar is a sucker bet and picking him would raise big red flags for m. Picking a college pitcher like Gabriel Hughes at this point is a 'safe' pick and I feel the Guardians would be leaving talent on the table unless they sign Hughes to an underslot deal to save money for later picks.

Supplemental First Round Pick

Catching - Again, Logan Tanner is a huge reach for me here.   There will be plenty of talented players available at other positions that we don't need to draft for need here because, to me, Tanner screams Austin Hedges.  You don't draft a college guy without a bat this early and expect that he will magically develop one, especially as your minor league system isn't know for developing bats where they weren't before.

Infield - Cayden Wallace is a good solid pick here.  I might gamble with Tucker Toman here except that our system is so bat at developing guys like Toman.  

Outfield - I am not enamored with a college outfield bat here, given who will be left.  I think drafting the best available college OFer here would signal drafting for need instead of drafting the best available player.  I think our true second round pick would be a good place to go for a college outfielder.

Pitching - Assuming we don't go for pitching at 16, there are lots of good college pitching here.   Justin Campbell, Cooper Hjerpe or even Carson Whenhut, if available, would all be solid picks here.

As I think these are the only picks the Guardians will have the first night of the draft, I would double back after the picks of July 17th and see who is left before I do my second day mock draft.