As tonight's draft segment will include the first two rounds, including competitive balance picks and compensation picks, I am going to do the same analysis I did for our first round and Competitive Balance A pick.
To refresh, the last mock draft post contained 'wins' and red flags picks for our first two picks. The Guardians would be good if they could draft Daniel Susac, Zach Neto, both college hitters, or Dylan Lesko. Gabriel Hughes, a college pitcher, would be a safe, slight overdraft and guys like Logan Tanner, Kummar Rocker, Justin Crawford would be red flag pickers for me with our opening pick. 'Wins' for our competitive balance pick would by Cayden Wallace, a college infielder, Hughes, if he is still available or other college pitchers Justin Cambell, Cooper Hjerpe or Carson Wisenhut.
Our second round pick is #54 overall.
Looking at the possible results for our first two picks, we are likely to have either two college hitters or one college hitter one hitter and one pitcher. So we could go either way, hitter or pitcher, without unbalancing our minor league system. Handicapping this pick is difficult because, besides the pool of players rated to be in the group considered for this pick, two additional different types of players converge at this point: players who are more highly rated than this slot and players that teams rate much more highly than the media.
So let's look at who would be good picks, focusing JUST on guys I expect to be available here, not considering the two other groups mentioned above that are not really predictable:
Catcher - Dalton Rushing (good hit tool, #50 overall prospect, MLB.com) and Logan Tanner (good defensive tools, #41 overall rated prospect) are the two best college catching prospects after Susac. Either would be a good pick here. If the Guardians think they can improve Rushing's defensive tools then drafting him would be a win and I see some Bryan Lavastida in him. If they just want a guy likely to at least end up as a major league backup, Tanner is their guy, although, as said before, he reminds me of Austin Hedges in terms of his ability to hit. If somehow Daniel Susac is selected at #16, it is unlikely we would double-down by using this pick to select another college catcher.
Infield - Cade Doughty, a college infielder, would be a 'win' here. The available college infielders here who slot at this level is limited. I like Luke Gold but he slots more like a 3rd round pick.
Outfield - There are a number of good college outfielders here. I expect the Guardians to go the college route here as their development of HS hitters drafted early is really, really suspect. Spencer Jones and Jud Fabian (my favorite), would be 'win' at this slot.
Pitcher - Looking at the picks available at this slot, college pitching and some HS pitchers look to be the strength here. If the Guardians see the draft playing out as I see it, and they have already selected a couple of college hitters, I could see them going for a college pitcher here. Parker Messick, Adam Mazur, Jonathon Cooper (who reminds me of Gavin Williams or Cody Morris or Peyton Battenfield) or Drew Thorpe would be good fits here. If the Guardians want to start more slowly and back up their development of pitchers a year or two, any HS pitcher who dropped or guys like Jackson Cox or Walter Ford would be a 'win' at this point.
That should be it for the first night of the draft. More tomorrow morning to recap tonight and handicap the second day of the draft.
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