So You Want The Guardians To Trade Prospects for Veterans?

 One of the common themes I have been reading is that the Guardians are/like hoarding prospects.  That they should have traded some of them for veteran help AND still should.

But you have to have prospects that other teams want in order to make those trades.

Recent results should teach us that maybe that isn't true. 

1. Sean Murphy trade - The A's ended up accepting a trade in which they got ZERO top 100 prospects in baseball for Murphy.  They got back Kyle Muller LHP (Braves #1), Freddy Tarnok RHP (Braves #8), Esteury Ruiz OF (Brewers #8) and Royber Salinas (Braves #6) and veteran catcher Manny Pina for Murphy and major league reliever Joel Payamps.

The point I am making:  It was rumored that the A's wanted Daniel Espino among other top prospects/young major leaguers.  This seems not to mesh with what they ended up with.  Clearly the Guardians could have put together a package that easily matched or surpassed the rankings that the A's got from the Braves/Brewers.  Say, Logan Allen, Will Brennan, Joey Cantillo and Xzavion Curry.  A steep price, to be sure, but one that should have blown away the Braves' offer IF the A's valued our prospects the way they were valued by others.

2. Nolan Jones for Juan Brito - A trade that was a head-scratcher for writers covering the Guardians and a terrible trade for those of us who were looking at it from very outside the organization.  Jones was our 7th ranked prospect at the time and Brito was someone who couldn't break into a mediocre Rockies' top 30, who was only in low A and who was at risk of being lost in the Rule 5 if he was not rostered last winter.  The exact kind of guy who shouldn't cost too much.  But he cost Jones.  

The point I am making:  No way Jones could have been the #7 prospect in a strong Cleveland system and only be worth a guy like Brito who, now that we have seen him, looks EXACTLY like what I thought he was when we got him:  A guy who likely will run out of minor league options before he ever makes his ML debut, if he ever does make his ML debut.  

Two examples where our prospects were over-valued by consensus.   

So if we are looking at our prospects and thinking we can trade them for help, from my perspective we don't have ANY prospects (as defined by guys who not in the majors right now) beyond Gavin Williams and maybe Joey Cantillo who other teams would even value at all.  To understand this let's look at our current top 30 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline:

1. Gavin Williams 

2. Tanner Bibee in the majors)

3. George Valera - Has been hurt twice this year and is the poster child for a guy who we might over value.  He is all potential and playing in leagues young for his age rather than potential ML star.  Yes, looking at his results in light of his age he looks like he has a lot of upside.  However, the proof is in the puddng and he hasn't shown enough yet to be a key piece in a trade.  Plus the injuries this year lessen his value.

4. Bo Naylor (in the majors)

5. Daniel Espino - Injured too much to have much value right now

6. Brayan Rocchio - As the 3rd middle infield prospect on the roster this year (Arias and Freeman) and recently sent back to the minors after a couple of errors and a 2-10 start to his ML career AND showing very little power this year, I think his stock has dipped this year despite his .335 BA at Columbus.  As a part of a prospect package he would be good.  As a key to a trade, I don't think he has that kind of value right now.

7. Chase DeLauter - injured and, given his history and the questions of how good he really is based on his early season in college last year, makes his trade value close to zero.

8. Logan Allen - majors

9. Angel Martinez - Hitting .193 at AA this year making his value low.

10. Jake Fox - His .571 OPS this year negates what he did at Lynchburg last year (.755 OPS as a younger player in his league).  His trade value is almost nothing right now.

11.Justin Campbell - His ulnar neuritis and the lack of him pitching this year make his trade value almost zero.

12. Angel Genao - His early season injury clouds his value and makes him almost untradeable for anything of value at this point.

13. Jaison Chourio - A good prospect but he isn't even playing ACL ball yet so his value is probably lower for others in a trade than it is for the Guardians keeping him.

14. Cody Morris - His injury history and perception as probably a setup guy or multi-inning reliever limits his trade value.

15. Petey Halpin - As a young player for AA he is keeping his head above water with a .681 OPS.  Still, that makes him a piece in a large trade but, without the breakout year a lot of us expected for him, he has no real trade value.  This 'young for his league' stuff is something that I don't think scouts really consider.   It is how good is the guy and how does he project in the majors.  Halpin doesn't currently look good at a top-of-the-order guy with 2 SBs and an OBP of .311.  Could he end up being good?  Sure and he likely will have value in the future if he keeps developing.  But not now.

16. Juan Brito - His early season work this year shows that he has little trade value as high A guys who hit .250 without power are not highly valued as a lot of his OPS of .754 is buoyed by his high walk rate.  Plus, as the scouting reports say, besides no power he isn't even that fast.

17. Joey Cantillo - Looked great in his second go-round at AA early this year.  But that is it, really.  It was his second year at AA.  How he does in AAA will determine his trade value and his first start didn't really help that as it showed all the command and control issues that have been the question marks all along. Still, a lefty throwing 97 mph who also has other playable pitches and had a 13 K game in 5 innings at AA cannot be ignored.  How other teams value him is the question.  given the Murphy and Nolan Jones trades, I doubt they currently would consider Cantillo as a mandatory but not critical piece in any veteran trade.  So, they want him but don't highly value him...different than the Guardians likely perceive or NEED to perceive him.

18. Jhonkensy Noel - I thought he would break out this year enhancing his trade value. He is hitting .190 in his first AAA season so doesn't appear to be anywhere near ready for the majors and, as such, he has little trade value.

19. Parker Messick - The fact that the Guardians started him at Lynchbure (similar to #9 2022 draftee Will Dion) shows that his current value is not great, especially in a trade as his own club doesn't think he could have handled his pro career in high A as other, recent college pitcher draftees have.

20.Tanner Burns - Soft tossing lefties in their second year at AA don't have a lot of trade value, except as a throw-in if teams are trading us prospects.

21. Jose Tena - He is just not producing in his second year at AA (.183 BA, .538 OPS).  Watching him he seems to has lost his edge for the game of baseball.  I don't see him hustlng, he seems lost at the plate.  It almost seems like he is pouting thinking he is ready for AAA based on his performance at Akron and Columbus last year.

22. Milan Tolentino - Came in with questions about his bat but had a .750 OPS with 29 SB last year.  This year, however, he is hitting .165 with a .518 OPS at Lake County.  He looks more like the guy we drafted than the guy who played at Lynchburg last year in his second season at Lake County.

23. Jacob Zibin - Out with TJ surgery.  He has no trade value right now.  I didn't like this selection (for the money we paid) at all and nothing I have seen so far makes me like at any more, and that is WITHOUT the TJ surgery setback.

24. Tim Herrin - No trade value other than a throw-in at this point.

25. Wuilfredo Antunez - Doing well at Lynchburg but no power and little speed kind of damps his .909 OPS, in addition to this production only being at low A

26. Hunter Gaddis - He has shown not to be a QUALITY starter, just a PASSABLE starter in the majors.  His worth will be a reliever down the road but, since he hasn't been allowed to devleop in that role, it doesn't help his trade value.

27. Justin Boryd - Injured and has no trade value as a result, even if you like his tool kit, which I do not.

28.Doug Nikhazy - His lack of control (27 BB in 23 ip) has negated any trade value he has.

29. Joe Lampe - His total slap and watch approach and his average speed and just passable CF defense really doesn't make him a good prospect...or have any real trade value.

30. Jack Leftwich - His 9.18 ERA at Akron makes his addition to our top 30 prospects show that there is not much, if any trade value below him in our system if he is our 30th ranked prospect.

So, there you have it. Their poor performances this year make most of our prospects valueless in a trade for a veteran who is more than a rental.  It also shows that with the graduation of Bibee, Allen, Freeman and Arias that our farm system is really looking pretty weak at this point. Our top prospects are not producing and no prospects that I have seen have taken huge steps forward this year.  

So I don't see us having prospects other teams would want, making it much more reasonable that we trade veterans FOR prospects at this point, rather than trying to get a veteran when we have little except for essential young major leaguers to trade.