Thoughts for a Monday: Our Hitting Development Staff Sucks...Or Does it?

 Let's talk hitter development here.  Until last year, this was an area where the Guardians player development staff looked REALLY inept.  They couldn't seem to develop hitters, especially in the outfield.

Then, all of a sudden, last year Kwan, Gonzalez and Brennan showed up and Gimenez developed and the players in our farm system (Noel, Freeman, Rocchio, Valera, Martinez, Naylor and younger guys like Halpin, Fox, Tolentino and older guys like Pries and trade acquistion David Fry made big jumps in how they were valued by the organization.  I mean, even Nolan Jones and Will Benson finally started to show why they were drafted so highly.  Gone were the days of Ernie Clement, Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado flailing away at the air.  

So it looked like we were riding the wave of better hitter development in our farm system.  

Then came this year.  Gonzalez regressed, we saw how little Benson and Jones were valued around the league, realized that we couldn't develop Owen Miller into a successful big league hitter.  I thought, well, every organization has misses.  

But then I looked up and down the organization.  Here's what I see:

UPSIDES

• Walks are up around the organization.  Lynchburg, with their young hitters, were averaging over 6 walks a game with a little less than 9 strikeouts a game.
• Stolen bases are up around the organization.  Lynchburg has 105 through 33 games.  Only FIVE major league teams had that many in the entire season last year. 
• High level prosepcts like Freeman and Rocchio were flourishing at AAA as were lesser prospects like Palacios, Fry and Pries.

DOWNSIDES

• Very low percentage of homeruns.  In fact, Aaron Bracho, the forgotten man in our organization due to sub-Mendoza performances, is the only positive surprise at 6 HRs.  Through 33 games Lynchburg has 8 HRS.  That is Dominican Summer League production, a league where raw 16 year olds play.  And that's with us stacking our lineup with older college players
• Regression by guys like Brennan, Gonzalez, Martinez, Tena, Fox, Noel, Gabriel Rodriguez, Sanquintin, Lavastida.
• 2022 draftees like Furman (5 XBH), Lampe, the entire Lynchburg roster, Brito all have below average power, or at least that is what they are showing.  Slap hitters that the league is just finding out are slap hitters.  Watching the Lynchburg game last night the outfielders were playing our hitters like they did pitchers when pitchers were required to bat. Yikes!
• And we are still acquiring slap hitters, like Justin Boyd in the Benson trade.

So, is our hitter development staff successful or was last year just a blip and are they back to where they were considered to be pre-2022: PATHETIC

The answer is that it is too early to have an answer.  However, right now we are apparently NOT producing guys who the bright minds in the Guardians FO think will help the big league club and the prospects we are producing (e.g., Nolan Jones) apparently don't have much value on the trade market.

I think a good example of the Guardians 'approach' to hitting in the minors is exemplified by Lynchburg.  They are leading the Carolina League in runs per game (6) but are only hitting about .250, .267 with RISP, averaging 9 runners LOB a game and have only 8 HRs.   The approach that seems to being taught is to be patient and take your walks (something that is really easy to do in a low A league like the Carolina League), slap at the ball and steal bases.  While all those tactics can produce runs at low A ball, they just won't be effectve at higher levels where pitchers have more control, teams will not respect hitters without power and so the at bats ending with a runner on base will be less, rendering the stolen bases irrelevant.  Even in low A this approach yields Lynchburg only a .500 record.

I disagree with the approach the Guardians appear to be teaching their hitters.  I disagree with their draft approach which seems to feed into this take-your-walk and slap the ball approach, I disagree with acquiring more of these slap and patience guys (Brito and Boyd).    You have to have power to offset when bad things happen.  Without it, just like last year's Guardians, you have to be too perfect all the time.  There is no margin for error.  They have only played one game this year where they won by 5 runs.  Most of their wins and losses come in games decided by 1 or 2 runs.  A little more hitting, a little more power wins those games.  But they aren't signing, drafting or trading for guys who can do what Naylor has done the last 3 games, take a game over with a HR.  The results, to me, couldn't be more obvious.  While their approach is a nice smoke-and-mirrors play, it isn't something that can stand the test of time by itself.  You need some power to go along with that slap hitting, patience, base stealing approach.  If you don't pick some players who can exhibit power, if you don;t trade for those players, you just aren't going to win.  Hey, I could be wrong. As I said above, time will tell.  But the Guardians have invested so much financial and intellectual capital in this slap and run approach BEFORE knowing whether it will be successful long-term, I think they are making a big mistake.  

But time will tell.