The 2023 amateur draft is coming up and it looks like the same people are running this one for Cleveland as ran the last couple. Two years ago the Scott Barnsby-led draft gave us Tanner Bibee and Gavin Willaims, among others, in the famous pitcher-dominant draft. However, the 2022 draft does not look as productive. In fact, I can say that the 2022 draft class, as it looks right now, could end up being the worst draft class for Cleveland in my memory. This draft class, which featured left-handed slap-hitting, fast college players, pitchability college pitchers and overslot (some WAY overslot) high school pitchers is not exactly working out for them. Not a single player selected in this draft looks like they were a good selection. This lack of success is being compounded by the fact that this draft was expensive, with Cleveland spending the absolute most OVER the MLB-imposed draft budget that they have ever spent, including spendng the most overslot for picks after round 5 then they have ever spent, which caused them to pay hefty penalties for going over their MLB-determined draft budget.
I will go even further by saying that NONE of these guys look like major league prospects and that every player selected after round 10 looks like an organizational player who will be lucky to even get a cup of coffee at AA someday, except for maybe Logan Clark, a HS catcher from California and their last pick, Shawn Rapp. Now, admittedly, picks 1, 1S, 6 and 10 are injured and picks 7 and 8 were HS pitchers who will debut in the ACL this year, but this draft looks bad. The Guardians can't even hide how bad it looks by their attempt to artificially inflate some of these guys' statistics by starting highly-drafted college players as overage players playing against weak competition at Lynchburg. No, friends, this draft, right now, sucks. It is early and things may change but when you go with a plan like above, which included drafting an injured player as your first selection, and drafting guys with limited upside at most other spots in your draft, the draft gurus with the Guardians have made a bed that now the rest of the organization and all of us fans will have to sleep in for years to come.
This is a shout out to our draft team to remind them they need to do a much, much better job in 2023 than they did in 2022 or our farm system, which is already reeling this year due to promotions and underperformance, may go deeper in the tank...something a small market club like the Guardians can never afford.
I think this draft is showing us that drafting left-handed slap hitters and hoping they develop power is foolhardy, drafting college pitchability pitchers is not a good strategy EVERY year and paying overslot in later rounds is a very risky move. Our farm system was lacking in catchers and power hitting outfielders and corner infielders last year. Some balance, as I have said before, was needed and there were draft prospects available who could have addressed those needs while still being considered 'the best player available at each slot that the Guardians drafted in. So, instead of trying to fit the square peg of fast, high OBP guys, pitchability college pitchers and overslot HS pitchers into the round hole of our draft slots, we should have gone a different direction, even if that meant drafting 21 college and HS power hitters to balance 2021!
Since I have made these bold statements, let's look at how our 2022 draft class is doing to see if they hold water:
1. Chase DeLauter - Still out with a broken bone in his foot. He may actually be able to play sooner than expected but will likely open the season in the ACL so we might still not see him in Lake County or (hopefully not) in Lynchburg until August.
1S. Justin Campbell - Diagnosed with ulnar neuritis in his pitching elbow, he still hasn't played in his first professional game yet, even though this type of injury doesn't have to be that hard to come back from as I understand it.
2. Parker Messick - Watching him, he looks like a short, non-athletic LH college pitcher dominating younger low A batters at Lynchburg. Because of his high draft slot his talent and what the Guardians have done in the recent past would tell you that Messick should actually be starting his professional career in Lake County. Needs to move up to Lake County so we can see how he does compared to his 2021 Guardians' draft peers when they played at that level in 2022.
3. Joe Lampe - Early in the season showed exceptional bat-to-ball skills and a little power. Still, I would have expected him to be hitting better as he is hitting only .187 over his last 75 high A at bats. Plus he has been tossed from at least one game and even showed some hothead characteristics in college.
4. Nate Furman - Starting at Lynchburg against younger competition he is hitting over .300, walking at an exceptional rate and stealing basessucessfully and in bunches (25 vs 3 CS). His success is against younger players. He should be moved up unless the goal is just to pad his stats to make it look like he is a good pick.
5. Guy Lipscomb - Really old for his league (1.1 years older than average), he is taking advantage of younger pitchers and catchers, taking lots of walks and hitting for doubles-producing power and stealing extra bags and straight steals of bases in bunches (28 steals, 1 CS). He should be playing in Lake County as he is age-dominating these younger players.
6. Dylan DeLucia - No word on him yet. I have to imagine he is dealing with an injury of some sort but certainly this time off is not helping his development.
7. Javier Santos - The first lottery ticket in this draft for the Guardians, he throws hard but needs a lot of work on his control and, of course, then work on his command.
8. Jackson Humphries - Paid a way-over slot bonus, as a HS pitcher, he will be in the ACL this year so we will get the first sign of whether he was worth the bonus.
9. Austin Peterson - His fastball sits at 88-90 mph and he can't even beat low A hitters with it as he has given up 43 hits with it in 32 innings. As a college senior 1.3 years over the average age in the Carolina League, he can finesse these hitters (5 walks to 30 Ks) to help keep his ERA down (2.25) and make it look like he is successful. However, he just looks bad especially compared to how Will Dion did at the same level as an overage pitcher last year.
10. Jacob Zibin - Out with TJ surgery. His $1.1 million bonus gamble does not look to be paying off. I doubted that he was worth that much at the time of the draft and what I have seen and heard since makes me think I was right, not counting the TJ surgery.
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11. Magnus Ellerts - He may be finding a niche for himself as a reliever although the fact that he is overage to be playing in Lynchburg, at least he isn't failing at the same level like some of the guys listed below.
12. Jack Jasiak - So far he is looking like an organzational arm and not much more than that.
13. Tyrese Turner - Looking like an organizational player, as well, not putting up good numbers even though he is playing against younger competition in Lynchburg
14. Pres Cavanaugh - Hurt so I haven't been able to see him much but his placement at Lynchburg as a college bat screams organizational player.
15. Adam Tulloch - His placement and performance are that of a guy who is an organizational player.
16. Logan Clark - Only saw him in ST and in some video clips but I think we may have something here as this guy, as a HS kid, has time to develop into a good catcher and a good bat.
17. Angel Zarate - Placement at Lynchburg says he is an organizational guy although his performance says there is a sliver of a chance he could be more.
18. Zach Jacobs - Placement and performance says organizational player
19. Geo Rivera - The second lottery ticket of the draft for Cleveland, he is a big dude and is young enough to maybe become something but he suffered from injury in ST and I don't know his status for the ACL season.
20. Shawn Rapp - Performance-wise he is looking like a decent late-round pick as he has performed well enough to already have been promoted to Lake County. Note that none of the other guys on this list except for Rapp have earned a promotion so far.
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