Some things that appear to be true, many of which were covered in the first 3 posts in this series, are:
- If a draft choice doesn't perform well in their first full year in the minors it is unlikely that they will make the majors or have a significant major league career.
- 5-6 players from each draft should make the majors and 2-3 of them should have significant ML careers.
- 70% of first round picks should make the majors. 50% of second round picks do, as well
- College hitters and pitchers are better shots to make the majors in the first 3 rounds but it the percentages even out in later rounds
- There is really not enough data to suggest whether a player who is injured in that first year or who is drafted when injured will eventually make the majors compared to players who are drafted healthy. What is clear is that the development timetable is set back for those players who are injured significantly before the draft or during before the end of the first full year in the minors.
SUMMARY OF 2022 DRAFT
With those details in mind, I went back to take a look at the 2022 Guardians draft picks and the stats they are putting up this year. Remember, the Guardians have recently been choosing not to have their draft picks play in their draft year, waiting instead until they have had a fall instructional league and a regular spring training under their belts. From that analysis it would not appear, at this point, that ANY of their 2022 draftees have shown anything that would indicate that they will eventually be major league players, given the criteria above. Players who have had success are too old for the leagues they are playing in and so it is difficult to give positive numbers much weight and a good number of those playing as overage players are not having success in a league they should be dominating. This creates a problem in that a team like Cleveland depends on its draft to supply players to its major league team. It also gives a good indication that the draft strategy from last year, drafting left-handed hitting college bats who favor bat control and good batting eyes over power, could have been a bad approach, or that the players selected were just bad selections. There is still time for this draft to develop some major leaguers with the injuries to DeLauter, Campbell, DeLucia, Zibin, Santos, Rivera clouding whether they are draft failures or simply draft successes whose progression has been slowed by their injuries. However, even if there are some successes still to come, it would be hard for me to project right now that we would even come close to getting an average number of major leaguers from this draft class. One final point: we normally find gems after the 10th round but this year it looks like we might be shut out of getting even one major leaguer from rounds 11-20, which is where the scouts really make their money, in my opinion.
Here is a look at the players from this draft.
1. Chase DeLauter - He is hitting .133 in his rehab assignment after missing the first two months of the season with a recurrence of his broken foot last year. It is too early to tell what his performance will be once he is assigned to a full season team as he missed so much time this is still like spring training for him..
1C Justin Campbell - He is out with elbow surgery and so all we know is that his development is probably set back a year. From our experience with Zach Plesac and others, he still could put himself in good position to be rostered in his first Rule 5 off-season if he makes a speedy, full recovery.
2. Parker Messick - He has made 11 starts this season and has a 3.40 ERA in 45 innings, giving up 42 hits in low A. As he is pitching in low A as a polished college pitcher, does not exhibit a ML average fastball and has only struck out 49 hitters, he is clearly not dominating as he should, compared to 9th round pick and fellow LH college pitcher Will Dion did in 2022, while, like Messick, pitching at low A as an overage pitcher.
3. Joe Lampe - After a hot start (.346 BA, .908 OPS in April) at age appropriate Lake County his BA is down to .243 and his OPS is .717 because he cratered in May (.181, .618) and worse so far in June (.143, .523). Right now it is on the fence as to whether he will have a good or bad year this year but it is trending towards a bad year with April appearing to be an outlier. If he fails to have a good year this year it is more likely he will be a failed draft pick. Not absolutely guaranteed but clearly more likely. Stay tuned.
4. Nate Furman - Furman started the year against younger competition at Lynchburg and dominated. However, now that he has moved up to the more age-appropriate Lake County, he is hitting .212 with a .536 OPS in 52 ABs. Small sample size as he adjusts to this new level. Stay tuned.
5. Guy Lipscomb - Dominating as an overage, 3 year college player in low A, there is no data on how he would perform at the more age-appropriate Lake County as, despite his great start, he has not been promoted yet.
6. Dylan DeLucia - The second of three picks in the first 10 rounds who is out with an arm injury, DeLucia will miss all of this year and a few months next season recovering from TJ surgery, meaning he will be halfway into 2024 before he pitches professionally and will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the 2025 season.
7. Javier Santos - A developmental project, he has not pitched yet this year and appears to be injured.
8. Jackson Humphries - A HS kid, he is in the ACL and has pitched one game going 3 innings and giving up 4 runs (first two innings were scoreless).
9. Austin Peterson - Playing as an overage player (college senior draftee), he is getting hammered in low A ball, giving up 64 hits in 44 innings with 38 Ks.
10. Jacob Zibin - Given over a $1 million bonus, he is out until next year with TJ surgery
11. Magnus Ellerts - As an overage pitcher he is currently dominating as the closer at low A.
12. Jack Jasiak - As an overage pitcher, he is getting hammered at low A with an ERA of 5.45 giving up 37 hits and 18 walks in 33 innings.
13. Tyreese Turner - As an overage position player at low A, he has leveraged a recent hot streak to raise his BA to .191 with an OPS of .573.
14. Pres Cavanaugh - As an overage player at low A he is hitting .211 with an OPS of .604
15. Adam Tulloch - As an overage player he is getting torched in low A with a 5.26 ERA to go along with 23 walks, 39 Ks and 26 hits in 29 innings.
16. Logan Clark - Started the season in the ACL as a HS draftee and so far is hitting .200 in 5 ABs.
17. Angel Zarate - He is injured but before that was hitting .333 with an OPS of .820 as an overage player playing at low A.
18. Zach Jacobs - He has an ERA of 3.66 with 47 Ks in 39 innings as an overage pitcher at low A
19. Geo Rivera Jr. - On the ACL roster, so far he has not played this season as he began the year injured.
20. Shawn Rapp - Dominated the beginning of the year (1.55 ERA) as an overage pitcher at low A and was recently promoted to the more age-appropriate high A Lake County.
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