Tuesday Coffee - The Gavin Williams Era Begins, What's Up Next From The Minor League Pipeline and Watching Grass Grow

GAVIN WILLIAMS DAY

In our wildest dreams as prospect geeks I don't think any of us imagined, in this era of Super 2s, Arbitration (in general), minor league options, crunched roster space, Rule 5 draft swords of Dame\ocles and too-soon-for-a-small-market-club free agency, that we would see Tanner Bibee, Logan T. Allen and Gavin Williams on our ML roster this year.

Kudos to the FO for not just going with guys like Hunter Gaddis and stretching out Xzavion Curry and Cody Morris in an attempt to plug cracks in the Hoover dam with duct tape and Elmer's Glue while still maintaining the ML virginity of our top pitching prospects.

Today has officially been designated Gavin Williams Day at Cleveland Guardians Perspective and we all anxiously look forward to his first start.   We know there will be clunkers along the way as we have seen with Bibee and Allen but the hope is that Williams, if he pitches anything like he did at AA/AAA, will bring more stability to that rotation and give us a chance to win every time he toes the rubber.

Today is also "OMG, what have we done?" day in the back offices of the Cleveland Guardians where the analytics people, bean counters and the-people-responsible-for-figuring-out-who-is-protected-from-the-Rule-5-group are all in a panic as to how they are going to do their jobs to make the Guardians competitive for the long-term while keeping the payroll under control and keeping our middling prospects in our system to avoid another Santander moment.

WATCHING GRASS GROW

Following minor league performances on a daily basis is a cross between looking for real oases in the desert and watching grass grow.  In that small timeframe you can't tell if something is real or a mirage and you feel, sometimes, like it is watching grass grow as volcanic eruption-like changes rarely occur and it is more like improvement is being obtained on a glacial-march level of speed.

That being said, here are some thoughts about the minor leaguers

• Christian Cairo, along with Yordys Valdes, have been slow-developing prospects, if I was to put it in the most politically correct terms.   Another way to say it was that they were light-hitting middle infielders when they were drafted and were looking more like organizational players up to this year.  However, wth Cairo's recent OB streak and Valdes starting to at least hit singles, they are looking a little better. Probably not top-30 better but certainly in the top 50.
• The AZL team is really interesting.  I see batting stats inflated in that league given that play in Arizona and that the pitching in this league appears generally suspect with the Guardians pitching being more suspect than others.  Bottom line: take batting stats with a grain of salt unless you are looking at XBH numbers.  While slap hitters can prospect at this level and in the DSL, power potential is something that is much more rare at this level for age-appropriate or underage players.  Players like Chourio and Rafael Ramirez, Jr. remain strong prospects but t is hard to get a read on whether other guys are putting up numbers that are real or just that are the result of feeding on bad or inexperienced pitching.
• Tyler Thornton has 48 Ks in 23 innings at Lake County.  The deep thinkers need to promote him to AKron to see what we have in him.   These video game numbers are signs that we might have something special and/or that his stuff is simply too dominant at Lake County to help his development if he stays in A+ ball..
• Robert Lopez is the latest blade of grass to shoot up as we watch our yard of prospects grow slowly.  As we really need catching prospects in our minor league system (Daniel Susac and Dalton Rushing are looking pretty good right now compared to Chase DeLauter) Lopez, Cedeno, Izturiz and other international free agent signee catchers are so important to the continuity of our competitiveness as one of them has to hit big, in my opinion.
• I love the potential of the Lynchburg lineup right now with Benjamin, Genao, Antunez, Collado, Lopez, Devers and Saduy but these guys are so raw some of them are really going to have to make an extensive step forward to make them top prospects.  Right now, except for Genao, they all look like wait-and-see guys.
• Speaking of watching grass grow, the Clippers and Rubber Ducks looked yesterday like a couple of teams grinding through the middle of a long season.  By that I mean that no one stood out and some guys, like Jose Tena, are not helping themselves.  Tena, in particular, looks uninspired and undisciplined in his approach in the field, on the bases and, especially, at the plate.  

WHAT'S UP NEXT FROM THE MINOR LEAGUES

With Allen, Bibee and Williams up and Espino injured, this minor league system is starting to lose impact prospects at the top.  Currently, Rocchio is ready for the majors and Valera needs more reps in order to be ready, although he is close enough he could be here for good before the end of the season.  Besides those two guys, the rest of the hitters at AA and AAA are very suspect at this point with Noel's advancement being non-existent at this point and Martinez, Tena and even Halpin's development being disappointing.  AAAA guys like Pries, Schneeman and major leaguers down on their luck like Gonzalez need to take a step forward.  Guys like Jonathon Rodrigeez, who has become a solid player at Akron, needs to explode to cement himself as a true prospect.

On the other hand, pitching prospects are more like pitching suspects at this point.  Cantillo and Nikhazy are having major control problems after their promotions.  Mace, held down at Lake County at the beginning of the year looked strong in the first 3 innings yesterday but than got hammered like he did in his first AA start.  It is tough to get a read on Will Dion as he has just started playing at a level where relying on trickery is likely to get you flamed every time out when you reach the second or third times through the order.  Messick is still putting up decent numbers at low A when, of course, he should have started the season at high A against age-appropriate competition.  Leftwich and Webb, both currently hurt, need to continue their growth to be any more than 2nd or 3rd tier prospects and we do need them to make that jump for organizational depth and to allow some of our starting pitching prospects to transition to the bullpen like Curry did this year.  Curry (and Gaddis and probably Battenfield) was more suited for the bullpen from the get go and the braintrust seems to be buying into that now.

So, in summary, our farm system is teetering due to injuries and bad performances this season.  We need to have guys step up (like Jonathon Rodriguez), guys to break down the door (Rocchio and Valera) and guys to simply get their acts together (Cantillo, Nikhazy an Noel and Mace).  There is a lot of work to be done by these minor leaguers if they want to be part of the future of the Cleveland Guardians and it is time to take big steps forward for all of them.