Thoughts for a Friday Morning - End of an Era, End of a Season.; 3 games for the Draft Pick

End of an Era

Well, this weekend ends the season for the Guardians.   It also marks the end of Terry Francona's tenure as Cleveland's manager.  Like Antonetti wanted, Francona got to choose when he couldn't continue so it all ended the way it was supposed to.  Also ending this weekend is the storied career of HOF-bound Miguel Cabrera of Detroit, who actually has a negative WAR this year for $30 million but that is what you get when you sign a big-name player to a contract that takes them into their 40s.  Miggy and Tito, congratulations on your careers.  You have been a credit to the game of baseball and we appreciate you.

Individually here are some stat levels that certain Guardians can reach:

• Ramirez needs 2 stolen bases to get to 30,
• Josh Naylor needs 3 RBI to get to 100, 1 double to get to 30, 3 HR to get to 20.
• Myles Straw needs 2 SB and 2 doubles to get to 20 in each category
• Steven Kwan needs 7 runs scored to get to 100
• Cal Quantrill needs 5.1 innings to get to 100.

There are probably individual season and career milestones such as career high, career total, players passed on all-time Cleveland list, etc. but I have not captured those, although I am pretty sure that the Guardians' PR department should be all over stuff like that.

Three Games for the Draft Pick

I would like to say that I look forward this weekend to seeing Jonathon Rodriguez make his ML debut and playing all of the next 3 games but I probably will be stuck watching Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano, instead.   Even worse than that, unless we sweep the Tigers we will finish in 3rd in our division.  But wait, it is not the end of the world to finish a meaningless 3rd because, if we do...

We get a better draft pick in 2024, by at least one place, in every round and a slightly increased pct. chance of getting the first overall pick in the draft.  [NOTE: Last year the Twins, with only a 0.9% chance of getting the top pick and who normally would have picked 13th based on their winning pct., ended up picking 5th in the first round so good things could happen!].   

For those of you who don't think that one space higher in the draft means anything, consider this: My pick for the first round for the Guardians this year was HS SS Colten Emerson.  Unfortunately, Seattle grabbed him up in the pick right before ours. Here is how Emerson did in his first year, splitting the season between rookie ball and A ball

Emerson: Rookie/A : .374/.496/.550/1.045 in 114 PA with 20 Ks

Not that I am sure we would have drafted Emerson.  However, he would have been my choice and looking at those numbers over a good number of ABs including time in A ball, I think he would have been a great choice.  Had we picked one pick higher we would have been able to make that choice.

Even excluding the first round lottery, getting the higher draft pick in every round is important.  You just have more options and, long-term, that may really impact the quality of your farm system.

So, here are the standings we need to worry about.  The best that Cleveland could finish is 7th worst record.  The worst they could finish is 12th worst record.  No team with a worse record is in danger of losing their draft slot due to going over the salary cap by greater than $40 million (NY Mets sneak in just under that figure).  Every team with a worse record is either impossible for Cleveland to catch or Cleveland would lose the tiebreaker to.

5.  Washington (cannot pick in top 10 as they are revenue payees and received a lottery pick last year)

8. New York Mets (pick drops 10 spots (thus below Cleveland) unless they win one of 6 picks in the lottery due to going over the salary cap by more than $40 million for 2023).

9. Pittsburgh 75-84 (Pittsburgh holds tiebreaker over Cleveland due to 2022 records)

10. Cleveland 75-84

11. Detroit 76-83 (Detroit holds tiebreaker over Cleveland due to 2022 records)

12. Boston 76-83 (Boston holds tiebreaker over Cleveland due to 2022 records)

13. San Francisco 78-81 (San Francisco holds tiebreaker over Cleveland due to 2022 records)

So, for one of the few times ever, let's root for the Tigers to sweep the Guardians and for Pittsburgh to win at least one game.

AAA - Columbus Clippers 2023 Recap

 OK, LIKE the other teams in the Guardians' farm system, the Clippers had a bad record at 68-79.

UNLIKE all the other teams in the farm system, at least at the end of the year but, for the most part, all year, this team was full of real, priority prospects and some guys who are fringe prospects.  But, on the position player side, very few organizational soldiers.

So, let's dig into the top prospects who passed through Huntington Park during 2023.  Get some coffee.  This is going to be a long article and I am not even including Juan Brito who was up for only a week.  In the International League the average player age this year was 26+ years old.

1. Brayan Rocchio (22) - Columbus Clippers POTY, Rocchio can play and his nickname is 'The Professor' which implies to me he is a student of the game.  He should be the starting SS for the Guardians next year.  However, like Nolan Jones last year, at all depends on what our braintrust, and I use that term loosely, decides on his worth.  They are just as likely to trade him for a bag of balls as they are to start him at SS next year.

2. Bo Naylor (23) - This is a no-brainer here.  He has continued to rake in the majors but played half a year in Columbus.  If he continues in the majors the way he has started, in 5 years, looking back, I might say I rated him one spot too low.

3. Tanner Bibee (24) - Now this isn't really fair but he did start the season at Columbus so here he is.

4. Gavin Williams (23/24) - Again, a no-brainer even though he spent a lot of time in Cleveland.

5. Logan Allen (24) - Just like the last two guys, Allen was a star at this level and did well in Cleveland, too.

6. Kyle Manzardo - I really hate putting this guy here.  There are so many questions about him from his shoulder to his terrible splits against lefties to his limitation to being a DH/1B.  if he can hit 25/30 HRs a year with a .350 OBP and an .810 OPS I would be happy.  

7. Joey Cantillo (23) -  People want to throw this guy into the fire right now.  Well, I have seen most of his starts and he is not ready.  He needs more polishing.  He needs to reduce his percentage of non-competitive pitches significantly.  He just needs to learn how to PITCH.  He has talent and time is on his side as he has two option years left and he is already in AAA.

8. Jhonkensy Noel (21/22) - Like Cantillo, this guy just needs to play more.  It is hard to deny his potential as marked by his HR totals last year as a 20/21 year old and this year, in AAA, being 4-5 years younger than average for AAA and STILL hitting 27 bombs and has experience playing 4 positions (1B, 3B, LF, RF).  Time is NOT on his side, however, as he only has one more option year left and so would have to be DFA'd if they tried to send him to the minors in 2025

9. Jonathon Rodriguez (23) - Most observers would not rate him this highly, but I still love this guy and hope, somehow, our hitting 'brain trust' (tongue firmly planted in cheek) can get the most out of his ability.  He hits for power, he has a great arm, he even hits for a decent average by using the whole field and runs well for a power hitter.  Although he has never been rostered, he was drafted at such a young age that he can be a 6-year minor league free agent if we don't add him to the roster.  

10. Angel Martinez (21) - Martinez is another one of our MIF prospects.  He has lots going for him but I think the difference between him being a starter on this team and being a bit player will be the development of above average power.  As his walk rate is not great and he is not a significant base stealer, it will he his power that sets him apart from the Rocchios and Tenas of the world.

11. Jose Tena (22) -  Tena has made it to the majors at 22 years old but he is slightly less of a prospect than is Martinez.  His walk rate needs a lot of work, his base stealing is only marginal and he is not as good of a defender as is Rocchio or Martinez.  He also needs to develop more power.  Basically, he looks like an old school utility infielder but utility infielders today have to be able to play a little OF and hit for a little power, have a little speed and not deliver  a lot of empty at bats.  These are the areas he needs to work on but, given his age, there is plenty of time.  What there isn't plenty of is minor league options. After this year he will only have one option left, meaning that he has to be kept on the roster permanently in 2025 or he will have to be DFA'd.  There is still plenty of time for up and down with him as he is in the majors and has all of 2024 to refine his game to make him a useful MLer.

12. Cody Morris (26) - The first of the guys who might be DFA'd this off-season, Morris had street cred as he was a consensus  top 20 prospect for the Guards this spring and has the potential to start, set up or be an opener.  Injuries destroyed his 2023 but he should be on the roster next spring.  He has one option year left and so could be sent to the minors in 2023 without going through waivers.  I think there is still lots in the tank with this guy and DFAing him or undervaluing him as a throw-in to a trade would be a mistake.  He has one option year left so, at his age, he helps keep our options open and our ML salary down and provides the above versatility.  In Cleveland, you keep this guy and spend your dollars elsewhere.

13. David Fry (27) - The typical late bloomer who found his schtick as a catcher/corner infielder/corner outfielder guy with some pop, he is obviously not a rookie any more...but he was when he came up through Columbus this year.  He is my prototype for the 26th player on your roster and I hope he has a long career in Cleveland in that role, one that is hard to find someone CHEAP for.

14. Tim Herrin (26) - Smply put, Herrin is a late bloomer.  He is still perfecting his craft as a lefty reliever.  His inclusion on the 40-man roster was a reach but, as it turns out, a good gamble.  He should retain his roster spot and be good LH reliever insurance at AAA or the second lefty in the pullpen in Cleveland, depending on what the new manager wants and the roster allows.  He is a luxury as due to his late development he has 2 option years left.

15. Hunter Gaddis (25) - Don't know if roster machinations in the off-season will cause Gaddis to be DFA'd but he is certainly a candidate.  But just like he was called up to be a spot starter or long man depth on several occasions this year,   He has 1 option year left so he fits in nicely as a depth option at AAA.

16. Bryan Lavastida (24) - Still young for the IL, he found his hitting stroke this year after a lost 2022.  You are talking the backup catcher here and Cam Gallagher and Austin Hedges have set the hitting bar low for catchers in Cleveland.  Yeah, the latter two are HUGELY better at defense than Lavastida but the same was true for William Contreras in Milwaukee but working with him made him an all--star catcher this year so, there is that.  Lavastida needs to be added to the roster or would be Rule 5 eligible this year. If he is DFA'd again he could be lost but he does have 1 option year remaining. To me, I roster him and go into ST with Bo Naylor, Fry and Lavastida as my 3 catchers for the season.  He isn't the best but we are talking backup catcher here and homegrown and cheap with hitting potential is what plays here.

17. Cade Smith (23/24) - Smith is likely to win the Kevin Kelly award for most likely Cleveland minor league reliever to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.  We simply do not have any 40-man roster room for him and he was shaky at the end of the season in Columbus.  His K/IP numbers are hard to deny and it is likely some team will take a shot at him in the Rule 5 but, as they say, you can't protect everyone.

18. Daniel Schneeman (26) - The Alex Call of 2023, Schneeman has no path to the major leagues with the Guardians but, if they are lucky, no other team will think he is worth a ML Rule 5 pick and we will have him for another year.  He had a breakout year in 2023 and there is some question as to whether he will continue his success next year as he faded toward the end this year.  Still, I think that he would have gotten at least a cup of coffee with 8 or more teams this year so I think there is some value there.  If he continues his ascent next year he will, as Francona has been known to say, kick down the door for some team in 2024.  Let's hope he survives the Rule 5 and it is Cleveland's door he kicks down.  He is certainly versatile and is willing all the time to improve his versatility.  I wonder if he would be willing to add catching and 1B to his 2B/SS/3B/CF resume.  If they had sent him to the AFL this fall, they could have worked on that, you know.  I still seem him playing in the majors some day, maybe even going all Andruw Manasterio on some team.

19. Micah Pries (25) - I would have bet dollars to donuts he would have made his ML debut this year.  But that was not to be.  Still, I think there is something there if he can just get consistency in AAA. But that was not there this year and his PT faded as more prospects were brought up to AAA without concomitant  promotions to Cleveland.  He is versatile being able to play LF/RF/1B and shows power and SOME OB skills as well as a little speed and hitting ability.  I think a good year at AAA next year gets him a cup of coffee at the ML level somewhere.  Maybe not in Cleveland but maybe Tampa would trade us Junior Caminero for Pries and Schneeman.  No wait, that is us that would do a trade like that.

20. Raynel Delgado (23) - A surprise selection in the 6th round of the 2018 draft, his progression up the minor league ladder has been slow.  Frankly, he had disappeared into organizational soldier territory until his promotion to Columbus this year when he seized the 2B spot and ran with it until Brito came up that last week.  He shows a good walk rate and showed more power this year although some of that could be attributed to hitter-friendly Huntington Park.  Nevertheless, there is something there as success at the AAA level at age 23 is hard to ignore.  Again, he won't be rostered but may be a Rule 5 target or a continuing breakout candidate for next year.

21. Luis Oviedo (24) - He can be a 6-year minor league free agent AGAIN this year and I am not sure that he would re-sign with Cleveland or even if they would want him but he clearly has a heavy fastball but not the command to be successful in the big leagues.  Like his as AAA depth with the hope he finds it.

22. Anthony Gose (32) - Out all season with Tommy John surgery, he was still under minor league contract to Cleveland and, with it being a 2-year deal, will be with Cleveland in 2024 unless he is selected in the Rule 5 draft.  No word how his rehab is going but he should be a depth reliever in Columbus in 2024 if he makes it through the Rule 5 this winter.  Like his chances of playing in the majors again.

23. Nic Enright (26) - The longest of all long shots before he got drafted in the Rule 5, there is a chance he could have been playing in the playoffs this year like Kelly will if he hadn't gotten sick.  His season was a mess because of his illness and I think we should just do a flush and forget, remembering that his Rule 5 selection gave me some hope that he would eventually find his way to the majors.  So, let's hope next year is better and Enright comes back strong and can deliver strong enough performances that he gets his ML shot in 2024.

24. Andrew Misiaszek (25) - Out with arm surgery all year, he should be back next year to Columbus.

25. Nick Mikolajchak (25) - Like Misiaszek, out all this year with arm surgery, he should be back next year to add to the strong bullpen that Columbus should have.  We should be able to avoid the AAAA relievers next year and fill these roles with our own guys.  For a prospect geek like me, that works.

So, there you have it.  I had to dig pretty deep, diving into the injured list to make, essentially, a whole roster of prospects and even bending the rules to include Gose just so that we don't forget him, but these are the guys who played for or passed through Columbus this year.  Maybe the absolute best group EVER to put on the Clipper uniform, in terms of prospect potential.  The lineup the last week or so was beyond belief for a prospect geek like me.  Let's hope the next time we see it is in Cleveland in 2025 (sprinkled, of course, with Ramirez and Josh Naylor and, hopefully effective Beiber and Quantrill and our current young relievers).  

AA - Akron Rubberducks Recap

 May I start by saying that every time I hear Rubber Ducks I start singing the rubber ducky song from Sesame Street.  Ah, flashbacks to when I watched that show with my kids.

But I digress.

The 2023 season for Akron was a poor one, record-wise, at 65-73.  Much of this was due to a lack of priority prospects and injuries to the ML club which caused a trickle effect, further limiting the talent on the roster.  Until this year, under the nickname Rubber Ducks, Akron had 17 out of 25 winning seasons with one season and .500 and two of those seasons being only 2 games under .500.  So suffice it to say that the fans of the Rubber Ducks weren't really used to this level of failure, at least in terms of games won vs lost.

But the minor leagues are not about W-L record, they are about player development, so let's take a look at the top prospects that spent all or a great deal of time in Akron this year.   For reference, the average age of players in the Eastern League in 2023 was 24+ years old.  I have excluded Gavin Williams from this list but included Joey Cantillo since the former spent most of the year in the majors but Cantillo spent the entire year in the minors, albeit only a small percentage with Aktron.

1. Juan Brito (21 years old while in Akron) -  Brito was Baseball America's minor league POY for the Guardians.  He was as advertised, and then some, with a great performance that earned him a 1 week promotion to AAA (similar to Jhonkensy Noel last year) once the AA season ended.  Brito showed his typical plate discipline, improved defense at second base, bordeline power and lack of speed that he had shown in previous years and at each stop along the way (Lake County, Akron, Columbus) this year.   If he focuses on talking his walks and doesn't get sucked into BA/SLUG discussions he could be in Cleveland by August 2024 IF there was a need.  More likely, he would be in the conversation for a starting role in 2025 if the MIFer logjam in front of him is cleared or if he learns another position.

2. Jonathon Rodriguez (23) - Continuing his breakout year of 2022, Rodriguez split the year between Akron and Columbus, slugging 28 HRs with an .897 OPS across these levels.  He shows a strong arm and passable defense in RF although no one will ever confuse him with being a Gold Glover.  He is not fast but good enough once he gets underway and his fly ball approach, along with his hustle, limited him to hitting into only 11 DPs this season. As a result of his stats in Akron and Columbus, his young age and his impending minor legue free agency, he should have been added to the 40-man roster and called up in September to the parent club as he will be a 6-year minor league free agent if they don't put him on the 40-man roster.  If they do what they did with Oscar Gonzalez (let him become a minor league free agent, sign him to a minor league deal to keep him from being lost but expose him to the Rule 5) he will likely be lost, just as Gonzalez would have had there been a Rule 5 draft after the 2021 season.

3. Joey Cantillo (23)  - The best non-injured (I hope) pitching prospect in the Guardians system made only 6 starts at AA (after spending most of 2022 there) before being promoted to AAA.  His numbers did not look perfect at AA and were less perfect at AAA but he clearly showed enough that he should be in play to be called up in 2024 in the event we need a starting pitcher.  He should probably be ready by June if he stays healthy this off-season and into next year.    He won't be perfect when he is called up and may end up going back to the minors at least one more time after he is called up but the talent is undeniable.

4. Jose Tena (22) - In hindsight, his slow start could easily have been attributed to his personal, family health issues.  But he had played a full year at AA already heading into 2023 so his repeat assignment to that level was surprising and it didn't go well at the beginning.  He picked it up later in the year and had a surprise promotion to Cleveland which, in hindsight, appears to be more about a best next man up thought process in an attempt to maintain Rocchio's rookie status looking forward to him being a PPI candidate in 2024 yet add MIF depth to the ML roster after Rosario was traded.  Note that the Guardians have already used 2 of Tena's option years.   Thus, if he goes to the minors in 2024 they wouldn't be able to ever send him to the minors in future years without exposing him to waivers.

5. Angel Martinez (21) - Martinez had only mediocre offensive stats in 2023 at AA/AAA.  But considering that he is a middle infielder who plays a great 3B, a good 2B and a decent SS, AND he played this season at 21 years old, his offensive stats play up significantly.  Of our MIF prospects, Martinez, to me, shows the most power potential, especially if he can bulk up a little.  Big potential here and only has used up one of his option years so they can send him to the minors in 2024 and 2025 without having him pass through waivers.

6. Petey Halpin (20/21) - Halpin has started each of his 3 minor league seasons being at least 2 years younger thatn the average age in his league.  Thus his stats would naturally be expected to lag behind and they have.  He has shown increasing HR power each year but his OBP and SLUG have decreased each season.  Halpin has been, at times, a highlight reel in CF bringing what will be inevitable comparisons to Myles Straw.  But the lack of offensive production is an issue.   Given the frustration with Straw's offense, I can't see the Guardians prioritizing Halpin next year and aggressively pushing him to AAA.  Like  they did with Tena in 2023, I can see them having Halpin repeat AA in 2024 to improve his offense since, as a HS draftee, he won't even be eligible for the Rule 5 until next winter so there will be no need to roster him this winter so there is no rush to get him to the majors fast.

7. Will Dion (23) - Before any analytics experts determine that I have lost my mind, hear me out.  Dion does not throw hard nor is he tall, meaning that his projection is, naturally, limited.  That being said, the guy produces.  He started at Lake County and did incredibly well but, in his first start in Akron got ripped for 7 runs in just 3.1 innings.  First thought from an analytics geek: He is regressing to the mean of his limited arsenal.  But after that rocky start his ERA was 2.00 in Akron and he struck out more than a guy per inning.  He did not have any jump in velocity, he just pitched.  So, while Dion may end up like Battenfield and Logan Allen the former and just be a fringe major leaguer, he is just as likely to end up as a quality #4 or #5 starter or multi-inning reliever like Curry is this year.  If he upticks his FB velocity to where he sits at 93 with movement, he would EASILY project as the good version of Aaron Civale and being a quality #3 on a playoff contending team or, with experience, GASP! as a #2 starter on a second division team.  He should be promoted to Columbus next spring and since he wouldn't even have to be rostered until next winter, might turn into an important trade chip at next year's deadline or next winter.

8. Doug Nikhazy (23) - The best thing I can say about his 2023 season is that Nikhazy appears to have made it through healthy.  But an experienced college pitcher should not be walking 73 batters in 102 innings at AA.  Some of his starts were brutal to watch as he would either not have any control at all from the beginning or lose it in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th innings.  Still, though, the potential of being a supplemental first round pick is still there.  Whether it is better coaching from the Cleveland Finishing School for College Pitchers (previously called The Pitching Factory) or a change in role to the bullpen to allow him to focus on commanding/controlling less types of pitches, I think he still has significant major league potential.  While his FB velocity is not that great right now, a move to the bullpen should, as it has for many other former college starters, should cause it to tick up 2-3 mph, which would be more than enough for him to be a quality reliever in the majors...if he gets his command/control, well, under control.

9. Franco Aleman (22/23) -  People are currently rehashing the Will Benson trade and talking about how the light went on for him sometime this season.  Well, if you back on Benson's stats the light went on for him in 2023 in the minors.  It just took it a little time to come back on in the majors.  The same can be said for Aleman who was not a priority prospect for the Guardians coming into 2023.  He was just a multi-inning reliever who threw very hard but with pretty much bad results.  Then he got promoted to Akron and, well, the SPOTLIGHT went on.  After having a combined 5.8 ERA at A/A+, Aleman ripped off 19 relief outings, many multiple inning games, without allowing an earned run.  Until he gave up 5 unearned runs in his last two outings he wasn't even scored upon in those first 17.  He only gave up 9 hits, 5 walks while striking out 38 in 24 innings in Akron.  In short, he was untouchable. His FB sat at 96/97 and touched triple digits in at least one outing.  His breaking stuff looked sharp which, combined, is the EXACT recipe for being an untouchable reliever.  Another key: as a 2021 college draftee he doesn't even have to be rostered until after 2024, meaning, to me, he immediately becomes a priority prospect for Cleveland and a guy they will likely push to Columbus either to start 2024 or a month or so into the season if he comes close to repeating 2023 if he is asked to start 2024 in Akron to polish him up more before he is thrown to the dogs in Columbus.   In any case, like Will Dion, Aleman looks like another success story from our 2021 draft of essentially all college pitchers.

10. Tommy Mace  (24) - Like Nikhazy, this placement for Mace is 100% based on pedigree and what the Finishing School has been shown they can do to get the best out of college pitcher draftees, especially from the 2021 class, it appears.  Mace is older but still have a year until he has to be rostered so starting 2024 at AA is no problem for the Guardians' player development group.  They have all of 2024 to see what they have in Mace.  Mace doesn't throw hard and, unlike Nikhazy doesn't miss many bats.  He still walked too many at AA but it was his lack of ANY overpowering stuff and his lack of pitchability that caused him to get eaten alive after his promotion to AA.  Likely, unless The Finishing School can mke miraculous transformation in Mace, he is likely destined for the bullpen.  However, with his moxy and the increase in FB velocity likely with that move, he still has some potential with his projection now being a mediocre #5 starter at the low side to a Eli Morgan-like reliever in the middle and a Trevor Stephan-like reliever at his ceiling.

11. Aaron Bracho (22) - Bracho, after two poor seasons at Lake County where he hit UNDER .200 without much power, had a breakout year in Akron in 2023 hitting 18 HRs with an OPS of .781.  He is still very young (2 years below average for AA) but, as it is with so many international amateur free agents who signed in 2017 at age 16, the lost year has really put him and his team behind the 8 ball due to the loss of a development year due to the pandemic in 2020.  Like all other 2017 signees, he is eligible to be a 6 year minor league free agent this winter.    There is no path that I see to him making the 40 man roster so the best I can see for the Guardians is if they are able to re-sign him as a MiLB free agent and assign him to the AAA protected list this winter and if he can pass through the ML portion of the Rule 5 draft.

12. Ross Carver (23) - He came over in a minor trade for Carlos Vargas this past off-season.  While his upside was limited even at the time, his 2023 performance, clouded by an early-season injury, was one of the most disappointing for a Cleveland pitching prospect, at least IMO.   Carver has a lot of work to do to be any more than a Thomas Ponticelli organizational innings eater at this point but the fact that the Guardians are sending him to the AFL this fall tells me they are still interested in whether he can develop into a priority prospect for them.  Heck, it worked for Cade Smith and Lenny Torres, to some extent, last year so what the heck.  It's worth a shot with a guy with Carver's breaking stuff.

There are other guys who deserve attention here.  Connor Kokx, Milan Tolentino, Tyler Thornton, Jack Leftwich and Cade Smith will likely be ranked in to the top 50 of Guardians prospects this off-season.  Some or all of them may develop into fringe major leaguers in the future with just continued improvement and, if any of them have light-year level improvement, maybe more than that.

The Race For The Draft Picks

 At this time of year there are two types of teams:

(1) Those trying to make the playoffs

(2) Those trying to get a good draft slot for next July's amateur draft.

You think I am kidding?  Read the fan sites of the other teams that are out of the playoffs.  Fans everywhere are thinking about tanking games just to get in a better draft slot.  

MLB has addressed tanking in the latest CBA.  Here is a summary of the current rules:

(1) The first 6 slots in the first round will be determined by a lottery involving all 18 teams that did not qualify for the playoffs. In that lottery the 3 teams with the worst record at the end of the previous year will have a 16.5% chance of winning the lottery to get the #1 overall pick. The remaining 15 non-playoff teams will have the following percentage chance of getting the #1 overall pick

 #4 worst record: 13.25%

#5: 10% more t

#6: 7.5%

#7: 5.5%

#8: 3.9%

#9: 2.7%

#10: 1.8%

#11: 1.4%

#12: 1.1%

#13-18: <1% chance of getting the #1 overall pick

(2) Teams that get revenue sharing can't get a top 6 pick for more than 2 years in a row and teams that don't get revenue sharing can't get a lottery pick 2 years in a row.

(3) Teams that are ineligible to receive a lottery pick can't get a first round pick higher than #10 overall.

(4) After the first 6 picks in the first round have been determined, the remaining order will be determined by the the worst-to-best record of the remaining non-playoff teams and then the reverse-to-best order of the playoff teams.

(5) After the 1st round teams will pick in regular rounds in the reverse order of their regular season record (non-playoff teams) followed by the playoff teams in reverse order of the round of the playoffs in which they were eliminated.

There are other rules involving the Prospect Promotion Incentive but those are for a different time.

So, in summary, the lottery only works for the 1st round and it really only impacts the teams that finish 1st-6th in the lottery drawing.  After that, it is business as usual.

With all that information, here is the list of teams with their record from worst to best with playoff teams down at the bottom of the list.  Obviously, this list will change in the final week of the season but here is the draft order if the season were to end right now and not considering penalties (e.g., being over the salary cap, having been in the bottom 6 too many years in a row), incentives (PPI) or loss of draft picks for signing qualifying free agents this winter.

1. Oakland 48-108

2. Kansas City 54-102

3. Chicago White Sox 60-96

4. Colorado 56-99

5. St Louis 68-88

6. Washington 69-88

7. Los Angeles Angels 70-87

8. New York Mets 71-85

9. Detroit 73-83

10. Pittsburgh 74-82

11. Cleveland 74-83

12. Boston 76-80

13. San Diego 77-79

14. San Francisco 78-79

15. New York Yankees  79-77

16. Cincinnati 80-77

17. Miami 81-75

18. Seattle 84-72

19-30 - Depends on where people finish in the playoffs with teams eliminated in the same round being determined by their regular season record and, if still tied, by the regular season record from the previous year.

As far as the Guardians are concerned they likely could finish as high as 8th and maybe even fall to 12th, although it looks like they will finish somewhere between 9th and 11th, where they are now.  This means they would have between a 2.7% and 1.4% chance of getting the first overall pick.   If they don't get the first overall pick I don't think they are eligible for picks 2-6 which will be determined by the lottery for teams 1-6 on the list above, assuming none of them get the top pick.

In subsequent rounds, the Guardians would draft based in the slot based on their record.  I don't believe that the competitive balance picks have been determined for the 2024 draft yet. 

So there you have it.  I am all for getting the highest draft pick so I would like to win 1 of 2 against Cincinnati to retain the Ohio Cup and then I wouldn't be disappointed if we lost all three to Detroit to end the season in 3rd in the AL Central.

A+ - Lake County Recap

 The Captains finished with an above .500 record (65-64), helpful to the Marketing dept. who no doubt have an easier time selling advertising for a team with a winning record who fans come out to see. 

However, unlike some of the other teams in the Guardians organization, Lake County had very few true prospects on their roster, even when you consider guys who passed through Eastlake on their way to bigger and better things.

That being said, let's take a look, in order, at the top prospects who played a significant amount at Lake County this season.

1. Chase DeLauter - I have said repeatedly that DeLauter had the best bat-to-ball skills I ever remember seeing from a Cleveland minor leaguer.  Of course, most of my experience in seeing these guys was before the days of MiLB.TV and consisted of watching players play a handful of games in my infrequent visits to minor league parks.  Still, he got the barrel to the ball A LOT in his time at Lake County.  He has a weird batting stance which may sap his power and he is likely to be limited to RF or maybe even LF if his arm won't play in RF in the major leagues.  He is a big athletic guy who runs well once underway (a tick better than Oscar Gonzalez) and he hustles out ground balls and will take the extra bag although his sliding needs some work, I think, especially with his foot injury history.  The only other POSSIBLE red flag I can see with DeLauter is his ability to hit LHP.  Unfortunately the sample size is extremely small (44 PA) but his OPS split between LHP and RHP is extreme (.592 compared to 1.027).  Overall, DeLauter is one of the top prospects in the Guardians' organization and his bat looks like it might play in the majors by next August if he continues the progress he showed in 2023.

2, Juan Brito - Putting him on this list is a bit of a cheat as he spent the bulk of the year in Akron.  But the Baseball America Cleveland Guardians Minor League Player of the Year did get in 132 ABs at Lake County so here he is.  Brito has extreme OB skills and, after seeing him several times in spring training and seeing him on MiLB.TV all year, I honestly believe he could walk a lot more than he does right now.  I believe the Cleveland organization conversation with him this spring went something like this: 'Juan, we know you can take a walk.  But we need you to produce hard contact at a much higher rate than you are currently doing and you can't do that with the bat on your shoulder.'  His defense was weak in ST and in Lake County but you could already see improvement (which continued in Akron and Columbus) all through the season.  At this point he is a passable defender at second base.  He still does not steal many bases and isn't that fast even after he gets underway.  He showed only marginal power in the minors this year and so it looks like he will be a guy with high OBP guy with 10-15 HR power.  His true value will be in whether he reaches that power potential and how much he can improve on his base-stealing and hitting for average while consistently improving his defense.  While it's not the focus of this post, the numbers Brito put up this year, the fact that he had to be put on the 40-man last winter and that Nolan Jones was arguably the best position player in Colorado this year, says to me that the Jones for Brito trade was very lopsided in favor of Colorado.

NOTE; Literally, I could stop here.  There aren't any other great prospects who played in Lake County this year but there are some interesting guys who MIGHT blossom into something down the road.  So let's look at them.

3. Ethan Hankins - How can a guy with a 4.70 ERA be #3 on this list?  It's because he is a former top prospect who has hardly played in the last few years due to injury and COVID.  If you think his ranking here is a surprise, wait until this winter where, I think, the Guardians will have no choice but to put him on the 40-man to protect his from the Rule 5.  Hankins certainly wasn't sharp this year but was healthy and showed the stuff he displayed before and right after he was drafted.  Putting him here (and on the 40man, if that happens) sort of demands a breakout season from him next year.  I think the chance of him breaking out next year and competing for a 26-man roster spot at the beginning of 2025 are high but, for all of you who read my predictions before the 2023 season, you now know how little value my breakout predictions actually have.

4. Ryan Webb - Webb did not dominate as I hoped he would at Lake County.  Like Hankins, Webb's development has been slowed by injury but he came through the season healthy and is headed to the AFL where he will get needed experience although I am skeptical that he will have success this fall as his stuff might not play well in the hot Arizona air.  For the future, however, I think he looks like he is slotting in well in terms of his value from the 2021 draft class.

5. Dayan Frias - I think the 2023 WBC will be shown to have a huge positive impact on the minor leaguers, especially young minor leaguers, who were able to play.  Frias may be the poster child for that and he certainly broke out as far as his power this year.  His .782 OPS speaks out as far as his potential and he is another in our class of MIF prospects with Frias maybe being able to slide over to 3rd base if his power is really starting to blossom and is not just a one year blip.  Like Brito, Frias does not run that well and he knows how to take a walk.

6. Khalil Watson - His performance at Lake County matched what I read about him at the time of the Josh Bell trade.  Loud tools and even louder impression that those tools are not being optimized by the player.  Yes, how can you scoff at a SS who has a .442 SLG and a .782 OPS and is still very young.  For comparison, look at Jake Fox.  Similar to Watson, Fox is a high 2021 draftee.  Fox is considered one of the top prospects in Cleveland's organization but the difference between Fox and Watson is that all the latter needs to do is hone his already existing skills and keep his attitude in check.  Fox, on the other hand, will really have to add to his power, speed and OB skills to reach his potential.

7. Cooper Ingle - Look, it pains me to put this 2023 extreme overdraft this high on this list but, in his small sample size he showed Brito-esque (or better) plate discipline and good bat-to-ball slap hitter skills...and maybe some true gap power.  The question is will he be able to be a ML catcher and can he leverage his existing skills into starting 2024 in Akron.  If he does and is successful offensively in 2024 in Akron, it could provide Cleveland a good offensive backup catcher by mid-2025, just about the time that we all hope Bo Naylor is rounding into perennial all-star form.

8. Jake Fox - I have already covered Fox's weaknesses in the Watson review above.  The key strength that Fox has is that he has no glaring weakness, being solid at almost all aspects of the game.    He should continue to appear on Guardians' top prospect lists this winter and next spring and the Guardians should be able to get a real good look at him in 2024.  Note that he is still so young in his professional career that the Guardians don't have to worry about adding him to the 40-man next winter as he was a HS draftee in 2021.

9.Tommy Mace - Although Mace cratered when he was promoted to Akron, he still showed some potential in Lake County.  His stuff looks like it might play a lot better as a reliever as his FB velocity as a starter is a tick below ML average.   Right now he looks like somewhere between Peyton Battenfield and Hunter Gaddis in terms of his potential but that might change if he moves to the bullpen. 2024 will be a crucial year for Mace as the Guardians will really have to figure out what they have in him as he is rule 5 eligible after next season.

10. Parker Messick - It would be easy to classify the polished pitcher in Messick as an organizational disappointment this year.  He didn't exactly dominate the Carolina League even though he should have, given his age and polish.  Ditto for the Midwest League after his promotion but one thing changed. In the MWL he showed a ML average fastball which was missing in Lynchburg, where he sat at 89-91, maybe touching 92 and trying to fool younger hitters with breaking stuff which a number of them centered up because it was not really quality breaking stuff.   In Lake County the increase in FB velocity made his breaking pitches play up and you could start to see a glimmer of hope of him turning into a quality ML pitcher in the future.  But this was just a glimmer.  If he continues to throw below average he will get chewed up and may never even make it to AAA, let alone Cleveland.  Time will tell.

11. Composite ranking: Tyler Thornton, Shawn Rapp, Lenny Torres, Jr. , Magnus Ellerts, Trenton  Denholm, Franco Aleman - Minor league relievers are, generally, very fungible.  Still, every once in a while one of these guys breaks out and carves out a ML middle reliever career for themselves.  Every one of these guys has this potential and Aleman may even have setup or closer potential down the road.  Reliever was one of the strengths of this team in 2023 and I think these relievers are worth watching going forward.

Not ranked due to insufficient date: 

Will Dion, Tyrese Turner

Very disappointing seasons/guys who are trending, without dramatic improvement, at becoming organizational soldiers

Every major league team has prospects that fail to become major leaguers.  However, Josh Wolf, Joe Lampe, Nate Furman, Steve Hajjar, Justing Boyd, Christian Cairo, Yordys Valdes, Isaiah Greene, Will Bartlett, Junior Sanquintin, Jorge Burgos, Aaron Davenport are guys who really stand out to me as they all had potential to become priority prospects but now are looking like organizational soldiers.  Some of them (Furman, Lampe, Boyd) are the first wave of prospects who are slap hitters to fall flat on their collective faces, bringing this unusual draft/acquisition criteria into question, and in a BIG way, as these guys are failing early in their minor league careers when they should be dominating A+ ball pitching, even if this unusual skill set for college players SHOULD have played well in A ball.

Thoughts For A Sunday: End of the Minor League Season Edition and Other Things

MINOR LEAGUE SEASONS END

Columbus finishes its season today, ending the minor league season for the Cleveland minor league teams.  It's current record is 68-78.

The Clippers have played for 45 seasons, starting in 1977, subtracting out the lost 2020 season where there was no minor league baseball.

In those 45 seasons there have only been 9 times that the Clippers finished 10 or more games under .500.

Now, I didn't research the rosters of those 9 teams but AAA is normally littered with AAAA players, meaning that each team would only have a few true prospects.  That's why the average age in AAA varies anywhere from 26-27 years old.  

Part of the reason for less than stellar record for the Clippers this year was that the heart of what was supposed to be their rotation this year, Williams, Bibee and Allen, ended up pitching most of the year in Cleveland.  Add to that the injury to Daniel Espino and what you have was a Clippers team that mixed and matched and used openers for a lot of the season.  Suffice it to say, their rotation, and pitching staff, mostly, looked like a typical AAA team.  

While it doesn't have a good record, this year's Clippers team, however, has LOTS of major league prospects.  In fact, I suspect that if a lot of the guys on the Columbus roster played in rebuilding organizations like Kansas City or Oakland, or in organizations of teams out of the playoffs who have had lots of injuries like the Cardinals, they would be in the majors right now or would have been at some point this season.  Here's a list of the guys I am talking about:

Joey Cantillo

Hunter Gaddis

Tim Herrin

Cody Morris

Cade Smith

Zach Plesac

Luis Oviedo

Bryan Lavastida

Juan Brito

Raynel Delgado

Angel Martinez

Jhonkensy Noel

Micah Pries (based on his hot June and July)

Bryan Rocchio

Daniel Schneeman

Oscar Gonzalez

Jonathon Rodriguez

George Valera

That doesn't count injured likes like Mikolajchak and Misiaszek, guys who aren't eligible for the Rule 5 like Manzardo and other guys who were young (Nic Enright) or AAAA players (Kelly, Norris) who might have been in the majors some or most of the year if things had worked out more in their favor.

What will transpire in the off-season is still unknown.  It is quite possible that guys like Smith, Rodriguez and Schneeman won't even be rostered this winter, leaving them exposed to the Rule 5.  Some of these guys might be traded and some might leave as 6-year minor league free agents.  

But, IMO, there might NEVER be another Clippers team with this much major league potential.  If we look back 10 years from now, I think we will be amazed at the talent that passed through or was in Columbus for much of this season.  This, in my opinion, will be the best Clippers roster of all time.

How about that for a prediction!

ODDS AND ENDS

• It has been my pleasure the last two nights to watch Richie Palacios play.  He had the GW sacrifice fly in the 11th on Saturday and provided the typical energy that he provides.  
• For those of you who thought we had a bad season, think for a second of the Padres.  They are 0-12 (including last night) in extra-inning games.  If I have this right they have had TWO, that's right, TWO walkoff wins this entire season.  Heck, David Fry has had that many walkoff hits himself.   So, if you think we have had it tough, think of the Padres and realize there are teams with high expectations at the beginning of the season who fell below those expectations. 
• Following the previous thought, the Cardinals had a bad season, much of which could be attributed to their bullpen failing them miserably.  You think we had bullpen problems, look at the Cardinals, who were thought to be the odds-on favorite to win the NL Central and now are looking at a top 10 draft pick next July.
• I don't know if we are out of the woods as far as McKenzie having TJ surgery, especially after today's performance and his rehab starts.  Bieber may be in better shape as far as that goes, but who knows.
• I still believe that our bullpen is a good one, a cheap one, and an experienced one.  Going out and spending $4-5 million a year for each of 2 relievers would not make fiscal sense.  Plus the depth we have in the minors is really appealing.
• Josh Bell watch - We are still not out of the woods.  Remember, if decides to opt out of the second year of his contract, Miami will have rented him for about $ 4 million more than they would have paid Segura not to play while we would have saved $4 million this year but then we will owe Segura $10 million over the next 2 years while the Marlins will owe neither Bell or Segura anything.  Why didn't Antonetti consider this possibility when he made the trade with Miami,  It should have at least included a clause where Cleveland and Miami would split the remaining amount on Segura's contract if Bell opted out.   Typical FO screwup, gambling that Bell is going to take that fat option because his performance sucks.  Well, maybe not!
• Still no word from the instructs about our injured pitchers and whether Clemmey and Walters have added themselves to that group.  Just like last year, radio silence is NOT a good thing.
• Columbus today tried the old 9 pitchers in 9 innings and it was one strike away from working but Cade Smith gave up a 2 out, 2 strike, 2 run homer and the Clippers lost 3-2.
• I cannot tell you how frustrated I am that Calhoun, Laureano and Gallagher keep getting ABs.  I get that the Guardians feel it is in bad taste to DFA them this late in the season but this is just frustrating to me.  We need to do something so here are some ideas:
• Put Arias on the IL, send Tena back to the minors and bring up Rocchio.  I know Rocchio has been optioned to the minors the maximum of 5 times this year, and he would have to be DFA'd if optioned to the minors again, but with 5 games left I don't think he would be optioned again.  Plus he only has 33 days of service time (by my count) so he won't exceed the rookie limits for the PPI of 43 days in the majors at this point, or at least I think that is true..
• DFA Michael Kelly, bring up Cody Morris and add Jonathon Rodriguez to the 40-man roster and recall him.  Play Rodriguez in RF the last 5 games.  Play Brennan in CF against righties and Straw against lefties.
• Play Freeman at 3B and DH Ramirez the rest of the way.  
• Split catching between Fry and Naylor unless it is absolutely necessary for Gallagher to play.4

Just some thoughts.  I hope they just don't sit on their hands and let the season play out giving PT to AAAA veterans who have already gotten more money and more PT from us than they should have.  

Thoughts for A Saturday - Power Hitting Prospects, Relief Pitcher Burnout, News from the Instructs, Rookies/Antonetti/Francona

 POWER HITTING PROSPECTS

With Noel, Gonzalez and Rodriguez all at Columbus now, it has given me a little insight, I hope.  And it brings up a huge question: 

How is it possible that three guys with much the same profile and potential have the same holes in their game?

Thinking back, Reyes and Bradley had the same holes in their games, as well.

It is almost not statistically possible for one team to have 5 power hitting prospects, all with the same deficits in their games and not have at least one or two of them be able to be fixed.

Then I see Nelson Velazquez raking and, although I know it is a small sample size, it drives home, again, the same question:

How is it possible that the Guardians can fail at developing 5 power hitters, all with the same, incredible potential?

This is a disaster that needs to be fixed because the sample size of players has now taken it out of the realm of possibility that it is them...and not us.

It is 'us' and that 'us' is the Guardians hitter development.  

Fix it.  Fix it now or find another job!

RELIEF PITCHER BURNOUT?

There has been a lot of discussion about whether Clase and Stephan are regressing to their mean.  Same conversation about other bullpen members.

Well, I am here to say I have been watching baseball closely for over 50 years and there is absolutely nothing wrong with the Guardians' bullpen.  I could see us bringing back Reynaldo Lopez IF AND ONLY IF we do it right now.  If we let him get to free agency the bidding war would make him payed MUCH more than he is worth for not a huge upgrade.  Aside from that, I think our bullpen has three things: balance, experience and cheapness.  Going into 2024, my ideal bullpen would be, considering only 40-man roster guys:

MLB Bullpen: Clase, Stephan, De Los Santos, Curry, Hentges, Herrin, Karinchak, Lopez

AAA: Morgan, Sandlin, Morris, Gaddis, Cade Smith

We also could have other guys who don't have to be rostered this winter who could figure in to our bullpen in 2024: Mikolojchak, Misiaszek, Aleman and Walters.

The only issues with this alignment is that I don't really see a way to get Smith AND Gaddis on the 40 man roster and I don't know if we can sign Lopez.

NEWS FROM THE INSTRUCTS

Nothing so far, we are waiting.  Are Clemmey and Walters healthy?  What about guys like Campbell, DeLucia, Javier Santos, Zibin, Geo Rivera and others who are rehabbing.  How are their rehabs going and what is the timeline for their return?  Any guys shining bright in the instructs from either the 2023 draft like Knapczyk, Bresnahan, Zinn, Velazquez or any of the ACL guys?

ROOKIES/ANTONETTI/FRANCONA

The major decision this winter will be who the next manager will be.

That being said, the biggest player decisions will be based on whether the Francona mantra (rookies suck until proven otherwise and suckee veterans don't suck until overproven that they do) carries over to the new administration or not.  

This is a HUGE decision point for this organization.  In the recent past guys like Nolan Jones, Richie Palacios, Will Benson, Yainer Diaz and Junior Caminero have been traded befroe we knew what we have.  

Guys like Freeman, Rocchio and Fry are getting frozen out by Francona in favor of suckee veterans.  We were promised in spring training that Freeman would get time in the outfield.  That never happened.   We have Tena and Brito coming up and even guys like  Schneeman and Delgado who might already be in the majors if they were playing for another organizations.

We need to trade some of these guys.  The issue is that our philosophy last year was that if we don't think a guy has the ability to be good (Jones, Benson, Palacios) we don't value them and will give them away for nothing or close to nothing (remember that Brito was a guy who HAD to be rostered and was a middle infielder without much speed and questionable defensive abilities.  

So, the question is, will Francona's philosophy die with his retirement or has it become so engrained in the organization's philosophy that it will continue, much to our detriment, when he leaves.  Given our predilection for bringing in LH hitting slap hitters in the last two drafts and how badly that is working, I fear that Francona's philosophy will continue, to the detriment of our franchise going forward.

I hope that I am wrong, just like I am hoping that Antonetti and Chernoff get their heads out of their butts and actually learn how to make trades that help our franchise instead of embarrasing it.

List of Rules That Need To Be Changed

I have discussed that the waiver wire rule should NOT be changed as it is one of the few rules that favor small market teams who struggle to compete in most areas (free agency (domestic and foreign), spending on the draft (i.e., going over draft budgets) and international amateur free agents).  The powers that be will likely push for reform after the Guardians and Reds snapped up guys on the waiver wire at the end of August (funny, no one made a fuss when Cleveland's claim to Ramon Laureano went through!).   The teams/fans that complained the most saw the waiver wire as a way to defeat the single trade deadline instituted as part of the new CBA and get veterans for pennies as part of their push to win the WS.  They were incensed that teams with a marginal chance to make the playoffs would put claims in on these guys.  Most comically, I saw an article in a Cincinnati rag that chastised the Guardians for keeping the Reds from Giolito, Moore and Lopez and claimed retribution might come for this slight in our last two games with the Reds this year.  Hello pot.  It's kettle.  You're black.

While the rule above needs to stay the same there are rules that DO need to change.  Here are the ones that I have recently made suggestions about and a couple of new ones that have come to mind since:

 Rule 5 Criteria:

• Players selected in the ML portion of the Rule 5 draft MUST be on the active ML roster of the team that drafted them for 90 days in the season after they are chosen or they have to be offered back to their original team.  No longer will a team be able to draft a player who is injured and stash him on the DL/IL during the season while he recovers from his injury and gets more experience.  This also eliminates that player having to pass through waivers before they are offered back to their original team.  The current rule allows for a player to be passed from team to team during the season, effectively eliminating the need to roster the player during the season after they were drafted in the ML Rule 5 as they can be stashed until the next year where they would have to finish their ML service time to be able to be sent to the minors without being offered back to their original team..
• Players signed before they are 17.5 years old have an extra year of protection before they are Rule 5-eligible

Team Control 

• For players who were 19 years of age or younger at the time the 2020 minor league season was originally scheduled to begin:
• Teams get an extra minor league option year for players who fit this description who are currently on a team's 40 man roster.
• Teams get an extra year of player control relative to that player becoming a 6-year minor league free agent

NOTE: This makes up for the loss of experience that a young player would have gotten during the 2020 season.  Although a few players got an extra year of development by being on alternate site rosters, no one was actually playing minor league games during 2020.

Roster Control Issues

• Create a perpetual 27th man spot on ML teams to avoid the travesty and injury risk and travesty to the game when position players pitch in ML games.   It would go like this:
• Each ML team is allowed to carry a 27th player on their roster for all games. The player must be:
• a pitcher
• someone not on the 40-man roster who has not appeared in a major league game that season as a 40-man roster player.
• Must have played in at least 5 professional seasons (2020 counts even though there was no minor league baseball)
• must not appear as the 27th player more than one week every calendar month
• must only appear in a game where his team is trailing by more than 10 runs.   If you are winning by more than 10 runes (say, Minnesota last night) you don't get to take advantage of this rule.
• The player
• receives his minor league salary on all days where he does not pitch
• receives major league salary in games where he does pitch
• does not receive credit towards his pension for time as the 27th man
• does not have to be optioned to the minors after his time as a 27th man is complete
• A 28th man is allowed to be carried on the roster for a doubleheader situation under the same rules as the current 27 man rule.
• Position players are no longer allowed to pitch in a ML game unless the ML team has used, as a pitcher, every pitcher on their active roster not counting the starting pitchers they used in their previous 2 games.  

Challenge Rules

Maybe it is because I am old and my mind doesn't work that fast any more but I think we need to make some changes to the challenge system to help managers of a certain age.

• Every team gets 2 'evaluation periods' of 45 seconds each during the game during which time they need to decide whether they are going to challenge.  Teams can challenge within 15 seconds of a play without using one of these evaluation periods.  If they ever lose a challenge in a game the evaluation periods, obviously go away.
• Like in football, the team that wants to challenge  (or that wants to use an evaluation period) should throw a yellow flag/towel onto the field to signify this.  The hand gesture of earphones will still be used to signify that they want to actually challenge.
• I think check swings should be challengeable except in cases where the batter is trying to avoid being hit by a pitched ball.  The latter should still be umpire discretion.
• If they are not already, I think fan interference should be challengeable.  Player interference should remain the discretion of the umpires.
• I think MLB should review every manager ejection over the past three years to see if there are any other areas that are not currently challengeable that should be made challengeable. 

I Am Sad

Well, it worked for the Guardians social media people today so I thought I would give it a try.

Actually, every day I realize that my life has been blessed.  A microcosm of that has been how blessed I have been to watch Francona-led teams play and have success over the past decade.  It has gotten to the point where I can literally be disappointed if the Guardians don't go to the playoffs.

But, after that 3 game sweep at the hands of the Royals, I am sad.  

• I am sad that Francona is retiring.  Well, not that he is retiring. It was clearly time for that.  I am sad for the unknown that will be replacing him.  I am convinced they should give the job to Sandy Alomar.  He knows the players.  He knows the coaches and he knows the organization.  I think he won't be afraid to replace the hitting coaches, who need replacing and keeping everyone else.  But this could go wrong in so many more ways than a DeShaun Watson pass play.  "Hello, Lou's Tire Mart.  'Would you like to manage the Indians'.  I'll get back to you".  You see, the Guardians brain trust think they know more about baseball than anyone else in baseball and will, I fear, make a choice that looks stupid and will, in short order, be exposed to be stupid.

• I am sad when I take a look at the players we have lost who could be the offense we need.  You know the names: Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Yainer Diaz, Nolan Jones, Will Benson, Owen Miller, Richie Palacios, Aaron Civale.  I am not sad about losing any of them. I am sad that when you lump all of them together they didn't produce  any level of talent in return and certainly not the level of return they needed to in order to keep us having winning teams.

• I am sad when I look at the farm system right now and don't see a single prospect who makes me think that there will come a time in the future where we can forget about these guys we traded away..

• I am sad because it still looks like we have no idea how to develop hitters, especially power hitters.  It should not be this hard.

• I am said that it appears that the Guardians' Finishing School For Good Pitching Prospects is no longer producing.  Cantillo, Nikhazy and Mace should be further along than they are and Messick and Webb should be better than they currently are.

• I am sad when I see, in addition to that, they have so many pitching prospects injured and I fear, soon, we will add Alex Clemmey to that list.

• I am sad to see how the Guardians treat their minor league prospects, making them have to be effective major leaguers right away or they lose all faith in them, giving them away for nothing and looking for the next shiny thing.

• I am sad when I see how they have catered to veterans, especially broken down veterans this August and September when they should have been giving kids the chance to play.  They made such a big deal about Kole Calhoun getting to 10 years when if Bryan Lavastida had gotten another month in the majors (as he should have this season instead of Gallagher) he would have qualified for an MLB pension at all.

• I am sad they don't reward their organizational soldiers with a ML cup of coffee and, instead, bring up prospects who are not ready (Schneeman/Tena) in a lost year.  

• I am sad to see their predilection for left-handed slap hitters and their disdain and inability to develop power hitters that comes through their last two drafts and all the moves they make, including the last two drafts.

• I am sad to see how often we get fleeced in trades, how we sign the wrong free agents, how often it looks like the Guardians' brain trust think they know more about baseball than, well, all of baseball, when they really don't.  That is when you get in trouble, is when you think you are smarter than you are.  I think we are seeing that in the Guardians' FO.

Yes, I am sad.   This looks way too much like the 80s to me and what I read from Guardians' fans tell me they have bit on all the empty promises that we all bit on in the 80s when we were hoping against hope that what we saw in front of our eyes was not as bad as it looked.   Maybe that is why the Guardians' social media people are sad.  I know that is why I am sad.

Thoughts for a Tuesday - Hangover From Bad Cleveland Sports Day

 INEPTNESS AND FRUSTRATION

Well, the Browns were comically inept, the level of ineptness that brings frustration.  Electronics stores love it as they likely will be besiged by people looking for replacement TVs after that type of loss.

It was good of the Guardians to be the warm up act of ineptness yesterday, prepping Browns fans of the feelings yet to come on Monday night.  I cannot tell you (actually I HAVE told you) about the thoughts of impending doom (of that game) when I see us 1, 2 or 3 runs ahead going into the 8th inning.     I have to laugh now about people saying that Clase is responsible for our woes when Stephan has almost the identical number of blown saves as Clase has.   It's a team sport, boys.  You play together and you suck together.  That's just the way life works.

DREAM TEAM IN COLUMBUS

Tonight's lineup in Columbus is exciting to all fans of the Guardians' minor leaguers especially as McKenzie is rehabbing.  Still not sure Sticks will avoid TJ surgery but a guy can hope, right?  It is like a dream team of guys who can/should help the Guardians next year.  In fact, a position player roster next year that looks like this:

Utility (4) - Arias, Fry, Freeman, Brito (the latter two learning to play the OF as well as ALL infield positions in ST and maybe even over the winter)

Catcher (2): Bo Naylor, Lavastida

First Base (1) Josh Naylor

Second Base/SS (2): Gimenez, Rocchio

Third Base (1): Ramirez

Outfield (4): Kwan, Brennan, Rodriguez

would be really appealing if Rodriguez could just put it together for us...please?!?

AAA Depth - Noel, Gonzalez, Tena, Martinez, Pries, Schneeman, Haase

The DFAs Start...Again

Matt Moore quietly put on waivers and being picked up by the Marlins was interesting.  Not that he has been that effective here and if we save a few bucks from all we have wasted this year, so be it.

Apparently, to replace Moore, we have brought up Michael Kelly off the IL...because we need another look at a career minor leaguer.   I guess this only makes sense if we are deciding about protecting him this winter (or not) and whether we will be rostering guys like Hankins or Cade Smith this winter.   Also, can't wait to see Laureano and Calhoun claimed off waivers in a day or two...please!

Francona vs Antonetti

While they both have culpability in this year's collapse, there seems to be some thought about whose fault this season is.  IMO, as I have said before, there is no argument.  Francona has ALWAYS surpased expectations, even having a winning record in 2021 before he stepped down.  Antonetti?  Well all you have to know is that the best trade he made since the Clevinger trade was getting David Fry for JC Mejia (NOTE: If Gimenez would have repeated his 2022 season I would have called the Lindor trade even, given we were never going to re-sign Lindor).  

Antonetti keeps turning down jobs and I want him here so that is a good thing.  He just needs to get better people underneath him because these trades and these last two drafts that are going down are really bad.

I invite people to look at the rosters, stats and records of Cleveland's teams of the 1980s.  The rosters weren't terrible yet we had some really horrible seasons.  That and what I have seen with my own yetes since Francona got here tells me that Francona has been a magician here, getting more with less and, sometimes, squeezing blood from a stone.    While Francona has his faults, most of them having to do with old age and incapacity, without him we might have had 7 losing records out fo the last 10 seasons instead of 9/10 winning records. 

Challenges

Sunday Kwan's jersey was clearly hit by a pitch and, has happened MANY times this season, our replay guys and Francona choked, running out of time before challenging the ball call.  I know I said earlier in this year that statistics show that we are about average on the success of our challenges, I said at that time that these stats don't capture when we DON'T challenge and we would have won.  My gut tells me we have to be among the worst teams in baseball at choking when it comes time to challenge.  I also venture to say that while we may, if the stats I read are correct, be average in terms of overall success rates of challenges this year, a detailed look at OUR games might show that our opponents have more challenges, a higher challenge success rate and, especially important, a low rate of NOT challenging when they should have.  We simply need to be better and someone should, after the season and Francona is gone, promise us fans that management will do everything in its power to rectify this problem by next season.  We simply need to be more decisive and more right on challengable plays.  It is so disconcerting to see us be this bad at challenges.

Draft Hangover

Remind me not to look at what could have been...like I could ever do that.  We missed out by one spot from having the ability to draft Colt Emerson.  While Ralphy Velazquez was having success in a limited sample size in rookie ball (23 AB, 1.132 OPS) while he was mostly DHing, Emerson was splitting time between Rookie and A ball.  In the ACL (same league Velazquez played in), Emerson went .536/.629/.786/1.414 in 28 ABs and stole 4 bases.  When promoted to Class A his production 'fell off'...to the tune of an .880 OPS in 79 PA as a barely 18 year old.

Given Waldrep's initial results for Atlanta, having success in rookie ball, high A and AA, we have now bracketed Velazquez with a guy I hoped we would get who we barely got aced out for and a guy we should have taken.  Hey, it is much better than if Velazquez fell on his face while the other two performed but this makes me even more disappointed how this draft turned out, especially in the first round.

A Ball - 2023 Lynchburg Hillcats Prospect Recap

 In 2021 and 2022 Lynchburg has been a haven for slap hitters and slow developing pitchers.  In 2022 the most HRs hit by a Hillcat were 8 and in 2021 Noel had 11 before his promotion and Alexfri Planez had 16 in his almost full season in Lynchburg as the only 2 guys with more than 8 HRs.  In 2021 there were 5 guys with 10 or more steals and in 2022 there were 4, 3 of them with 20 or more.    In 2022 the pitching was pretty non-descript being buoyed up only by college pitchers from the 2021 draft who were sent to face underage hitters and had some success doing it.  In 2021 Daniel Espino was the only pitcher who stood out.  

These results mirror Cleveland's emphasis on signing hitters from the DSL who either are slap hitters or who require time to grow into their power and getting college pitchers from the draft, albeit that most of those pitchers skip mostly or completely over Lynchburg and go directly to high A Lake County, leaving Lynchburg with HS pitchers and Latin pitchers who were mostly overage and an afterthought in the Guardians' international scouting.

Besides Cleveland's emphasis on plate discipline (Lynchburg led the league with 625 walks in 2023).  Lynchburg's offensive results also mirrored professional baseball's increased emphasis on the stolen base as Lynchburg led the Carolina League with 266 steals in 2023, with 11 different players having 10 or more steals (compared to 4 in 2022).  Not so much with power, however, as the team leader in HR had 11 and, as a team, Lynchburg hit only 62 HRs, almost last in the Carolina League.  This was not unusual as Cleveland really favors this slap hitting mentality in the low minors (and now in the last two drafts) and Lynchburg was dead last (50 HR) by a good margin in 2022.

The 2023 Lynchburg roster was more of the same for Cleveland as their draft strategy, the results of their previous international signing periods and their assignment strategy mirrored with what had done in the past.  As always, there will be ups and downs in terms of talent from a particular international class and draft class and this was the case this year, although in 2023 a change occurred as Cleveland sent some of their college hitters from the 2022 draft to the Carolina League for their first pro experience which, of course, led to inflated stats from guys like Nate Furman who were exposed as being overinflated when he was promoted to Lake County and barely hit over the Mendoza line.  The Guardians probably would have sent more college pitchers from the 2022 draft to Lynchburg but so many of them were hurt between the draft and the end of spring training that they had to rely heavily on international signees and, somewhat, on organizational fillers from the end of the 2022 draft.

So let's take a look at who performed well for the Hillcats  (67-64) this year.

1. Angel Genao - The most highly touted prospect to play significantly at Lynchburg this year,  Genao held his own as a 19 year old.  In 278 AB he showed to currently be a slap hitting MIFer with a slash line of .263/.345/.385/.730 but he only registered 6 stolen bases in 9 attempts.

2. Jose Devers - When your 20 year old SS is leading his team with 11 HRs and is also stealing 34 bases (in 45 attempts, however) it is something to sit up and pay attention about.  He did most of his HR damage later in the season and did lead his team in strikeouts with 92 and his OPS was only.743 as he didn't hit that many doubles and only hit .252.  Still, a lot to dream on with Devers

3. Wuilfredo Antunez - Antunez is old for A ball.  He is currently 21 and has been with the organization long enough he is Rule 5 eligible this year.   He slashed .275/.354/.420/.774 hitting 17 doubles, 6 triples and 6 HRs.   A cautionary stat was that he only stole 11 bases in 17 attempts so an increase in power would be expected with average level speed that his stolen base total would project.

4. Juan Benjamin - Another 20 year old, Benjamin does nothing extraordinary.  He is just a solid middle infield who sprays the ball around as evidenced by his .275 BA but only .708 OPS.

5. Robert Lopez - Some may think it is surprising that Lopez appears this high on this list but 19 year old catchers with a little power (6 HRs) and a decent offensive skill set (OPS of .698)

6. CJ Kayfus - As a 2023 draftee who is a polished college hitter you would expect him to have success in A ball, even in his draft year.  But Kayfus hit 4 HRs in 59 ABs for Lynchburg and had an OPS of .971.  Buried in those stats I think is a guy who may end up with 20 HR power in the ML with, of course, the proviso that he is a very undersized first baseman who would likely be a defensive liability if played in the OF.  Still, when you look at his small sample size stats and Lynchburg and compare those to 2022 draftees who played in Lynchburg, IMO Kayfus' stats stand out.

7. Parker Messick -I don't often rate a prospect who has split time between two levels on his performance at the lower level but I am doing it with Messick.  In Lynchburg he was unspectacular given his age and the fact he is left-handed (still an oddity at this level for young hitters).   He didn't miss as many bats as a college pitcher should have playing against much younger competition at Lynchburg.  He pitched mostly at 90-91 in Lynchburg but was touching 93-94 after his promotion which came in the last 1/3 of the season when he should have been tiring from the grind of his first, full pro season.  Just like Eli Morgan (and even Shane Bieber) before him, Messick has a chance if can get his average FB velocity to 93 and touch 95 occasionally.   It seems like he was trending that way so he gets a spot on this top prospect list for Lynchburg.

8. Alonzo Richardson - Richardson's 2nd year at Lynchburg was a full season.  Like Messick, he didn't miss many bats.  Like Messick, his FB velocity went up during the season, with Richardson touching 95 by the end of the season which did not lead to an uptick in strikeouts, interestingly.  Still, , he gets a spot on this list for his potential being realized during the season.

9. Yorman Gomez - Like Richardson, Gomez has long-term promise without short-term flash.  He was 2nd on the team with 100 Ks and is sort of trudging his way up the system without flash.

10. Magnus Ellerts - Another 2-level guy, Ellerts does not show extraordinary FB velocity but just gets guys out.  He was old for this leve but it wasn't like he played a high level in college as the Guardians drafted him from junior college.

11. Shawn Rapp - When you talk about Ellera and Rapp you have to remember that the Guardians seem to be great at getting relief prospects at the later stages of the draft.  Doug Jones came that way and many followed his lead, pitching themselves into priority relief roles in the minors with a few even making the majors.  Rapp had the earliest promotion of any of the college pitchers from the 2022 draft and performed at a high level at both Lynchburg and Lake County.  He may not end up in the majors but, for his work this year, he ends up on this list.

2023 Amatuer Draft - Guardians Draft vs My Mock Draft - First Year Performance comparison

 The Guardians used to be able to avoid having their draft picks play in the first year. In 2022 this kept us from seeing what we got in picks like Furman, Messick, Lipscomb and even Lampe, although we did get to see Lampe go 0-10 last year in a cameo at Lynchburg that did kind of portend what we have seen out of Lampe after the first month of 2023.  This year, because of a change in rules, most 2023 draftees have to be placed on a minor league roster this year and so we get a look at what the 2023 draftees look like.  So I thought it would be good to compare how my 2023 draft picks are doing compared to what the Guardians draft picks are doing.

Here are the numbers:

FIRST ROUND

Guardians: Ralphy Velasquez:  ROOK: 23 AB, .348/.393/.749/1.132

My mock draft:: Hurston Waldrep: A/A+/AA: 1.80 ERA, 25 IP, 15 H, 13 BB, 36 K

SECOUND ROUND

Guardians: Alex Clemmey - Guardians said they were holding him out until fall instructs.

My mock draft: Jake Gelof - ROOK/A ; .226 BA/.748 OPS, 6 HR, 20 BB, 24 K in 133 AB.

COMP B PICK

Guardians: Andrew Walters - Guardians did not let him pitch

My mock draft: Joe Whitman - ROOK/A - 1.86 ERA, 9.2 IP/4 H/3 BB/13 K

THIRD ROUND

Guardians: CJ Kayfus - A  .271/.429/.542/,971, 4 HR in 59 AB

My mock draft: Levi Wells - Did not pitch this season

FOURH ROUND

Guardians: Cooper Ingle - A+ .289/.464/.385/.848 in 52 AB 

My mock draft: Michael Carico - Rookie/A  16 AB, .188/.385/.111

FIFTH ROUND

Guardians: Christian Knapczyk - DID NOT PLAY

My mock draft:Jace Bohrofen, Rookie/A 7 HR/77 AB .299/.443/.636/1.080

 

SIXTH ROUND

Guardians: Tommy Hawke - Rookie 17 AB, .235/.381/.294/.675

My mock draft: Alex Mooney - A  66 AB .152/.263/.212/.475

SEVENTH ROUND

Guardians: Alex Mooney - A  66 AB .152/.263/.212/.475

My mock draft: Ross Dunn - DID NOT PLAY

 

EIGHTH ROUND

Guardians: Jonah Advincula - Rookie - 16 AB .250/.519/.563/1.081

My mock draft: Blake Dickerson - DID NOT PLAY

NINETH ROUND

Guardians: Jay Driver - 9.2 IP/ 13 H, 2 HE, 11 BB/ 16 K, 9.31 ERA

My mock draft: Matt Etzel - Rookie/A/A+ 96 AB, .323/.455//510/.966

TENTH ROUND

Guardians: Matt Wilkinson - Rookie - 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 3 K

My mock draft: Tanner Witt - DNS - but may have signed in my draft strategy.

SUMMARY

Remember, that my draft would have cost about $100,000 less than the Guardians draft.

Also, first year stats are always suspect because of small sample size.

Even with those provisos the stats show that:

My mock draft won on rounds 1 and 9, the Guardians won on round 4, we tied at round 6 and rounds 2, 2c, 3, 5, 7, 8 and 10 were not comparable as one or both drafts had players who did not play this year.

So, there you have it.  Next year will tell how my mock draft compared to the Guardians draft as too many players did not play this year to make such a comparison possible.  Initially, my only comments besides what I have made in my draft analysis is that I would rather have a college pitcher in Waldrep who has shown the ability to compete in AA ball already rather than a HSer who has to catch to be worth a first round pick being successful in rookie ball.  

Next year will tell the tale, however.  I remain both confident in my mock draft ending up superior to the Guardians 2023 draft and disappointed that the Guardians, with all their resources, have blown a second consecutive draft, really hamstringing this organization in terms of its prospect pipeline.  You cannot make huge mistakes like this when you are a small market club, especially when your strategy (hit over power, LH over RH) is taken to such an extreme that you are the only franchise in baseball who are trying this...especially after it failed (Lampe, Furman, Lipscomb) in 2022 and at the ML level it has only succeeded with Kwan.

Thoughts For A Sunday - Down To A Couple of Weeks Edition

 Make A Run

It's never over until it's over!  So, with a magic number of 7 it looks bleak.  So what?  It is going to take us going 11-2 the rest of the way to have an above .500 record.  So what?  Remember what Blutarsky said in 'Animal House': Bluto's Big Speech - Animal House (9/10) Movie CLIP (1978) HD - YouTube.  

We just keep playing hard and maybe something amazing will happen.  In the end, when the dust settles on 2023, it would be great to remember a huge sprint to the finish line.  Just let's not get anyone else hurt, OK?

Rehab Guys

Speaking of not getting hurt, WTF are we doing with Bieber and McKenzie?  I don't think it takes a ML start to determine whether these two need arm surgery in the off-season.  That is what MRIs and expert doctors are there for.  It is not about 'But, can he pitch with that injury?'.  It is about do can he rehab the injury and be as good as he was BEFORE he got hurt by next ST or does he need to have surgery now to get him back ASAP. 

It is also not about building trade value for the off-season.  Shane Bieber's trade value is cooked.  Well, it would be for most of us but for a team that just traded 2+ years of Aaron Civale, when he was hot, in the middle of a pennant race, for Kyle Manzardo, maybe if Bieber is breathing he can bring the pathetic return I think the Guardians will accept for him.  I mean, Antonetti should just have this as his answering machine message: "Hi, it's Chris.  What did you expect me to get?  No one will trade fairly with us.  Please leave a message after the tone, especially if you want to rob us in a trade.  Beep.'

So, while it may be some symbolic victory for these guys to get into a ML game and have success before the end of the season, remember what happened with McKenzie when he came back from his first injury this year: one great start, one bad (probably injured) start and then back on the IL.  If he gets one good start in before the end of the season recent history doesn't support that he isn't injured or won't get injured trying to make it all go away with an end-of-season revival.

So, I vote to shut both of them down...but I don't think my opinion matters.

Callups and DFAs Coming?

OK, let's use reverse psychology.  There is no freaking way the Guardians will bring up any rookies or Karinchak before the end of the season.  Let's just go with guys who are not likely to be here next year.  That makes more sense.

AFL and Instructs

Waiting on the AFL assignments for the Guardians.  Hopefully it will be exciting and not something like we are sending Joe Donovan and Josh Wolf to the AFL because we had to provide a catcher and a relief pitcher.

Also waiting on word from the instructs.  I want to know if Clemmey and Walters are healthy and how guys like Rivera Jr., DeLucia, Campbell, Zibin, Espino and other injured pitchers are progressing in their rehab.  

I mean, would it hurt to throw us prospect geeks a bone with an update from instructs

Free Agent Winter

Looking over the potential free agents this winter, think of what the 2022/2023 free agent market looked like at the beginning of February this year after it had been picked over already.   I'll have more on this later but just to get you 'pumped' here are the top FAs available (by MLB Trade Rumors, top options listed first):

CF - Cody Bellinger, Harrison Bader (a Straw clone), Kevin Kiermaier, Michael Taylor

Corner OF - Teoscar Hernandez, Michael Brantley, Adam Duvall, Lourdes Gurriel

SS - Amed Rosario, Gio Urshela, Enrique Hernandez

Catcher: Mitch Garver, Gary Sanchez, Tom Murphy

First Base: Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario, Carlos Santana

Second Base: Amed Rosario, Adam Frazier, Elvis Andrus

I doubt that we have a chance with Teoscar Hernandez or Cody Bellinger who are both, in my mind, question marks for a long-term contract as I am skeptical they can continue production over the next 4 to 5 years.  Even if we would buck up for these guys, it is unlikely, unless we way outbid other teams, that we could land them, given our bad season this year, the uncertainty regarding our new manager and how unlikely it would be that we keep spending money after we sign one of them.

Well, that leave trades with our far-less-than-astute FO who gives away prospects like it is candy at a Thanksgiving Day parade.

This is just a bad FA year, folks and there is nothing we can do about that.