In 2021 and 2022 Lynchburg has been a haven for slap hitters and slow developing pitchers. In 2022 the most HRs hit by a Hillcat were 8 and in 2021 Noel had 11 before his promotion and Alexfri Planez had 16 in his almost full season in Lynchburg as the only 2 guys with more than 8 HRs. In 2021 there were 5 guys with 10 or more steals and in 2022 there were 4, 3 of them with 20 or more. In 2022 the pitching was pretty non-descript being buoyed up only by college pitchers from the 2021 draft who were sent to face underage hitters and had some success doing it. In 2021 Daniel Espino was the only pitcher who stood out.
These results mirror Cleveland's emphasis on signing hitters from the DSL who either are slap hitters or who require time to grow into their power and getting college pitchers from the draft, albeit that most of those pitchers skip mostly or completely over Lynchburg and go directly to high A Lake County, leaving Lynchburg with HS pitchers and Latin pitchers who were mostly overage and an afterthought in the Guardians' international scouting.
Besides Cleveland's emphasis on plate discipline (Lynchburg led the league with 625 walks in 2023). Lynchburg's offensive results also mirrored professional baseball's increased emphasis on the stolen base as Lynchburg led the Carolina League with 266 steals in 2023, with 11 different players having 10 or more steals (compared to 4 in 2022). Not so much with power, however, as the team leader in HR had 11 and, as a team, Lynchburg hit only 62 HRs, almost last in the Carolina League. This was not unusual as Cleveland really favors this slap hitting mentality in the low minors (and now in the last two drafts) and Lynchburg was dead last (50 HR) by a good margin in 2022.
The 2023 Lynchburg roster was more of the same for Cleveland as their draft strategy, the results of their previous international signing periods and their assignment strategy mirrored with what had done in the past. As always, there will be ups and downs in terms of talent from a particular international class and draft class and this was the case this year, although in 2023 a change occurred as Cleveland sent some of their college hitters from the 2022 draft to the Carolina League for their first pro experience which, of course, led to inflated stats from guys like Nate Furman who were exposed as being overinflated when he was promoted to Lake County and barely hit over the Mendoza line. The Guardians probably would have sent more college pitchers from the 2022 draft to Lynchburg but so many of them were hurt between the draft and the end of spring training that they had to rely heavily on international signees and, somewhat, on organizational fillers from the end of the 2022 draft.
So let's take a look at who performed well for the Hillcats (67-64) this year.
1. Angel Genao - The most highly touted prospect to play significantly at Lynchburg this year, Genao held his own as a 19 year old. In 278 AB he showed to currently be a slap hitting MIFer with a slash line of .263/.345/.385/.730 but he only registered 6 stolen bases in 9 attempts.
2. Jose Devers - When your 20 year old SS is leading his team with 11 HRs and is also stealing 34 bases (in 45 attempts, however) it is something to sit up and pay attention about. He did most of his HR damage later in the season and did lead his team in strikeouts with 92 and his OPS was only.743 as he didn't hit that many doubles and only hit .252. Still, a lot to dream on with Devers
3. Wuilfredo Antunez - Antunez is old for A ball. He is currently 21 and has been with the organization long enough he is Rule 5 eligible this year. He slashed .275/.354/.420/.774 hitting 17 doubles, 6 triples and 6 HRs. A cautionary stat was that he only stole 11 bases in 17 attempts so an increase in power would be expected with average level speed that his stolen base total would project.
4. Juan Benjamin - Another 20 year old, Benjamin does nothing extraordinary. He is just a solid middle infield who sprays the ball around as evidenced by his .275 BA but only .708 OPS.
5. Robert Lopez - Some may think it is surprising that Lopez appears this high on this list but 19 year old catchers with a little power (6 HRs) and a decent offensive skill set (OPS of .698)
6. CJ Kayfus - As a 2023 draftee who is a polished college hitter you would expect him to have success in A ball, even in his draft year. But Kayfus hit 4 HRs in 59 ABs for Lynchburg and had an OPS of .971. Buried in those stats I think is a guy who may end up with 20 HR power in the ML with, of course, the proviso that he is a very undersized first baseman who would likely be a defensive liability if played in the OF. Still, when you look at his small sample size stats and Lynchburg and compare those to 2022 draftees who played in Lynchburg, IMO Kayfus' stats stand out.
7. Parker Messick -I don't often rate a prospect who has split time between two levels on his performance at the lower level but I am doing it with Messick. In Lynchburg he was unspectacular given his age and the fact he is left-handed (still an oddity at this level for young hitters). He didn't miss as many bats as a college pitcher should have playing against much younger competition at Lynchburg. He pitched mostly at 90-91 in Lynchburg but was touching 93-94 after his promotion which came in the last 1/3 of the season when he should have been tiring from the grind of his first, full pro season. Just like Eli Morgan (and even Shane Bieber) before him, Messick has a chance if can get his average FB velocity to 93 and touch 95 occasionally. It seems like he was trending that way so he gets a spot on this top prospect list for Lynchburg.
8. Alonzo Richardson - Richardson's 2nd year at Lynchburg was a full season. Like Messick, he didn't miss many bats. Like Messick, his FB velocity went up during the season, with Richardson touching 95 by the end of the season which did not lead to an uptick in strikeouts, interestingly. Still, , he gets a spot on this list for his potential being realized during the season.
9. Yorman Gomez - Like Richardson, Gomez has long-term promise without short-term flash. He was 2nd on the team with 100 Ks and is sort of trudging his way up the system without flash.
10. Magnus Ellerts - Another 2-level guy, Ellerts does not show extraordinary FB velocity but just gets guys out. He was old for this leve but it wasn't like he played a high level in college as the Guardians drafted him from junior college.
11. Shawn Rapp - When you talk about Ellera and Rapp you have to remember that the Guardians seem to be great at getting relief prospects at the later stages of the draft. Doug Jones came that way and many followed his lead, pitching themselves into priority relief roles in the minors with a few even making the majors. Rapp had the earliest promotion of any of the college pitchers from the 2022 draft and performed at a high level at both Lynchburg and Lake County. He may not end up in the majors but, for his work this year, he ends up on this list.
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