At this time of year there are two types of teams:
(1) Those trying to make the playoffs
(2) Those trying to get a good draft slot for next July's amateur draft.
You think I am kidding? Read the fan sites of the other teams that are out of the playoffs. Fans everywhere are thinking about tanking games just to get in a better draft slot.
MLB has addressed tanking in the latest CBA. Here is a summary of the current rules:
(1) The first 6 slots in the first round will be determined by a lottery involving all 18 teams that did not qualify for the playoffs. In that lottery the 3 teams with the worst record at the end of the previous year will have a 16.5% chance of winning the lottery to get the #1 overall pick. The remaining 15 non-playoff teams will have the following percentage chance of getting the #1 overall pick
#4 worst record: 13.25%
#5: 10% more t
#6: 7.5%
#7: 5.5%
#8: 3.9%
#9: 2.7%
#10: 1.8%
#11: 1.4%
#12: 1.1%
#13-18: <1% chance of getting the #1 overall pick
(2) Teams that get revenue sharing can't get a top 6 pick for more than 2 years in a row and teams that don't get revenue sharing can't get a lottery pick 2 years in a row.
(3) Teams that are ineligible to receive a lottery pick can't get a first round pick higher than #10 overall.
(4) After the first 6 picks in the first round have been determined, the remaining order will be determined by the the worst-to-best record of the remaining non-playoff teams and then the reverse-to-best order of the playoff teams.
(5) After the 1st round teams will pick in regular rounds in the reverse order of their regular season record (non-playoff teams) followed by the playoff teams in reverse order of the round of the playoffs in which they were eliminated.
There are other rules involving the Prospect Promotion Incentive but those are for a different time.
So, in summary, the lottery only works for the 1st round and it really only impacts the teams that finish 1st-6th in the lottery drawing. After that, it is business as usual.
With all that information, here is the list of teams with their record from worst to best with playoff teams down at the bottom of the list. Obviously, this list will change in the final week of the season but here is the draft order if the season were to end right now and not considering penalties (e.g., being over the salary cap, having been in the bottom 6 too many years in a row), incentives (PPI) or loss of draft picks for signing qualifying free agents this winter.
1. Oakland 48-108
2. Kansas City 54-102
3. Chicago White Sox 60-96
4. Colorado 56-99
5. St Louis 68-88
6. Washington 69-88
7. Los Angeles Angels 70-87
8. New York Mets 71-85
9. Detroit 73-83
10. Pittsburgh 74-82
11. Cleveland 74-83
12. Boston 76-80
13. San Diego 77-79
14. San Francisco 78-79
15. New York Yankees 79-77
16. Cincinnati 80-77
17. Miami 81-75
18. Seattle 84-72
19-30 - Depends on where people finish in the playoffs with teams eliminated in the same round being determined by their regular season record and, if still tied, by the regular season record from the previous year.
As far as the Guardians are concerned they likely could finish as high as 8th and maybe even fall to 12th, although it looks like they will finish somewhere between 9th and 11th, where they are now. This means they would have between a 2.7% and 1.4% chance of getting the first overall pick. If they don't get the first overall pick I don't think they are eligible for picks 2-6 which will be determined by the lottery for teams 1-6 on the list above, assuming none of them get the top pick.
In subsequent rounds, the Guardians would draft based in the slot based on their record. I don't believe that the competitive balance picks have been determined for the 2024 draft yet.
So there you have it. I am all for getting the highest draft pick so I would like to win 1 of 2 against Cincinnati to retain the Ohio Cup and then I wouldn't be disappointed if we lost all three to Detroit to end the season in 3rd in the AL Central.
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