Thoughts for a Friday Morning - End of an Era, End of a Season.; 3 games for the Draft Pick

End of an Era

Well, this weekend ends the season for the Guardians.   It also marks the end of Terry Francona's tenure as Cleveland's manager.  Like Antonetti wanted, Francona got to choose when he couldn't continue so it all ended the way it was supposed to.  Also ending this weekend is the storied career of HOF-bound Miguel Cabrera of Detroit, who actually has a negative WAR this year for $30 million but that is what you get when you sign a big-name player to a contract that takes them into their 40s.  Miggy and Tito, congratulations on your careers.  You have been a credit to the game of baseball and we appreciate you.

Individually here are some stat levels that certain Guardians can reach:

• Ramirez needs 2 stolen bases to get to 30,
• Josh Naylor needs 3 RBI to get to 100, 1 double to get to 30, 3 HR to get to 20.
• Myles Straw needs 2 SB and 2 doubles to get to 20 in each category
• Steven Kwan needs 7 runs scored to get to 100
• Cal Quantrill needs 5.1 innings to get to 100.

There are probably individual season and career milestones such as career high, career total, players passed on all-time Cleveland list, etc. but I have not captured those, although I am pretty sure that the Guardians' PR department should be all over stuff like that.

Three Games for the Draft Pick

I would like to say that I look forward this weekend to seeing Jonathon Rodriguez make his ML debut and playing all of the next 3 games but I probably will be stuck watching Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano, instead.   Even worse than that, unless we sweep the Tigers we will finish in 3rd in our division.  But wait, it is not the end of the world to finish a meaningless 3rd because, if we do...

We get a better draft pick in 2024, by at least one place, in every round and a slightly increased pct. chance of getting the first overall pick in the draft.  [NOTE: Last year the Twins, with only a 0.9% chance of getting the top pick and who normally would have picked 13th based on their winning pct., ended up picking 5th in the first round so good things could happen!].   

For those of you who don't think that one space higher in the draft means anything, consider this: My pick for the first round for the Guardians this year was HS SS Colten Emerson.  Unfortunately, Seattle grabbed him up in the pick right before ours. Here is how Emerson did in his first year, splitting the season between rookie ball and A ball

Emerson: Rookie/A : .374/.496/.550/1.045 in 114 PA with 20 Ks

Not that I am sure we would have drafted Emerson.  However, he would have been my choice and looking at those numbers over a good number of ABs including time in A ball, I think he would have been a great choice.  Had we picked one pick higher we would have been able to make that choice.

Even excluding the first round lottery, getting the higher draft pick in every round is important.  You just have more options and, long-term, that may really impact the quality of your farm system.

So, here are the standings we need to worry about.  The best that Cleveland could finish is 7th worst record.  The worst they could finish is 12th worst record.  No team with a worse record is in danger of losing their draft slot due to going over the salary cap by greater than $40 million (NY Mets sneak in just under that figure).  Every team with a worse record is either impossible for Cleveland to catch or Cleveland would lose the tiebreaker to.

5.  Washington (cannot pick in top 10 as they are revenue payees and received a lottery pick last year)

8. New York Mets (pick drops 10 spots (thus below Cleveland) unless they win one of 6 picks in the lottery due to going over the salary cap by more than $40 million for 2023).

9. Pittsburgh 75-84 (Pittsburgh holds tiebreaker over Cleveland due to 2022 records)

10. Cleveland 75-84

11. Detroit 76-83 (Detroit holds tiebreaker over Cleveland due to 2022 records)

12. Boston 76-83 (Boston holds tiebreaker over Cleveland due to 2022 records)

13. San Francisco 78-81 (San Francisco holds tiebreaker over Cleveland due to 2022 records)

So, for one of the few times ever, let's root for the Tigers to sweep the Guardians and for Pittsburgh to win at least one game.