May I start by saying that every time I hear Rubber Ducks I start singing the rubber ducky song from Sesame Street. Ah, flashbacks to when I watched that show with my kids.
But I digress.
The 2023 season for Akron was a poor one, record-wise, at 65-73. Much of this was due to a lack of priority prospects and injuries to the ML club which caused a trickle effect, further limiting the talent on the roster. Until this year, under the nickname Rubber Ducks, Akron had 17 out of 25 winning seasons with one season and .500 and two of those seasons being only 2 games under .500. So suffice it to say that the fans of the Rubber Ducks weren't really used to this level of failure, at least in terms of games won vs lost.
But the minor leagues are not about W-L record, they are about player development, so let's take a look at the top prospects that spent all or a great deal of time in Akron this year. For reference, the average age of players in the Eastern League in 2023 was 24+ years old. I have excluded Gavin Williams from this list but included Joey Cantillo since the former spent most of the year in the majors but Cantillo spent the entire year in the minors, albeit only a small percentage with Aktron.
1. Juan Brito (21 years old while in Akron) - Brito was Baseball America's minor league POY for the Guardians. He was as advertised, and then some, with a great performance that earned him a 1 week promotion to AAA (similar to Jhonkensy Noel last year) once the AA season ended. Brito showed his typical plate discipline, improved defense at second base, bordeline power and lack of speed that he had shown in previous years and at each stop along the way (Lake County, Akron, Columbus) this year. If he focuses on talking his walks and doesn't get sucked into BA/SLUG discussions he could be in Cleveland by August 2024 IF there was a need. More likely, he would be in the conversation for a starting role in 2025 if the MIFer logjam in front of him is cleared or if he learns another position.
2. Jonathon Rodriguez (23) - Continuing his breakout year of 2022, Rodriguez split the year between Akron and Columbus, slugging 28 HRs with an .897 OPS across these levels. He shows a strong arm and passable defense in RF although no one will ever confuse him with being a Gold Glover. He is not fast but good enough once he gets underway and his fly ball approach, along with his hustle, limited him to hitting into only 11 DPs this season. As a result of his stats in Akron and Columbus, his young age and his impending minor legue free agency, he should have been added to the 40-man roster and called up in September to the parent club as he will be a 6-year minor league free agent if they don't put him on the 40-man roster. If they do what they did with Oscar Gonzalez (let him become a minor league free agent, sign him to a minor league deal to keep him from being lost but expose him to the Rule 5) he will likely be lost, just as Gonzalez would have had there been a Rule 5 draft after the 2021 season.
3. Joey Cantillo (23) - The best non-injured (I hope) pitching prospect in the Guardians system made only 6 starts at AA (after spending most of 2022 there) before being promoted to AAA. His numbers did not look perfect at AA and were less perfect at AAA but he clearly showed enough that he should be in play to be called up in 2024 in the event we need a starting pitcher. He should probably be ready by June if he stays healthy this off-season and into next year. He won't be perfect when he is called up and may end up going back to the minors at least one more time after he is called up but the talent is undeniable.
4. Jose Tena (22) - In hindsight, his slow start could easily have been attributed to his personal, family health issues. But he had played a full year at AA already heading into 2023 so his repeat assignment to that level was surprising and it didn't go well at the beginning. He picked it up later in the year and had a surprise promotion to Cleveland which, in hindsight, appears to be more about a best next man up thought process in an attempt to maintain Rocchio's rookie status looking forward to him being a PPI candidate in 2024 yet add MIF depth to the ML roster after Rosario was traded. Note that the Guardians have already used 2 of Tena's option years. Thus, if he goes to the minors in 2024 they wouldn't be able to ever send him to the minors in future years without exposing him to waivers.
5. Angel Martinez (21) - Martinez had only mediocre offensive stats in 2023 at AA/AAA. But considering that he is a middle infielder who plays a great 3B, a good 2B and a decent SS, AND he played this season at 21 years old, his offensive stats play up significantly. Of our MIF prospects, Martinez, to me, shows the most power potential, especially if he can bulk up a little. Big potential here and only has used up one of his option years so they can send him to the minors in 2024 and 2025 without having him pass through waivers.
6. Petey Halpin (20/21) - Halpin has started each of his 3 minor league seasons being at least 2 years younger thatn the average age in his league. Thus his stats would naturally be expected to lag behind and they have. He has shown increasing HR power each year but his OBP and SLUG have decreased each season. Halpin has been, at times, a highlight reel in CF bringing what will be inevitable comparisons to Myles Straw. But the lack of offensive production is an issue. Given the frustration with Straw's offense, I can't see the Guardians prioritizing Halpin next year and aggressively pushing him to AAA. Like they did with Tena in 2023, I can see them having Halpin repeat AA in 2024 to improve his offense since, as a HS draftee, he won't even be eligible for the Rule 5 until next winter so there will be no need to roster him this winter so there is no rush to get him to the majors fast.
7. Will Dion (23) - Before any analytics experts determine that I have lost my mind, hear me out. Dion does not throw hard nor is he tall, meaning that his projection is, naturally, limited. That being said, the guy produces. He started at Lake County and did incredibly well but, in his first start in Akron got ripped for 7 runs in just 3.1 innings. First thought from an analytics geek: He is regressing to the mean of his limited arsenal. But after that rocky start his ERA was 2.00 in Akron and he struck out more than a guy per inning. He did not have any jump in velocity, he just pitched. So, while Dion may end up like Battenfield and Logan Allen the former and just be a fringe major leaguer, he is just as likely to end up as a quality #4 or #5 starter or multi-inning reliever like Curry is this year. If he upticks his FB velocity to where he sits at 93 with movement, he would EASILY project as the good version of Aaron Civale and being a quality #3 on a playoff contending team or, with experience, GASP! as a #2 starter on a second division team. He should be promoted to Columbus next spring and since he wouldn't even have to be rostered until next winter, might turn into an important trade chip at next year's deadline or next winter.
8. Doug Nikhazy (23) - The best thing I can say about his 2023 season is that Nikhazy appears to have made it through healthy. But an experienced college pitcher should not be walking 73 batters in 102 innings at AA. Some of his starts were brutal to watch as he would either not have any control at all from the beginning or lose it in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th innings. Still, though, the potential of being a supplemental first round pick is still there. Whether it is better coaching from the Cleveland Finishing School for College Pitchers (previously called The Pitching Factory) or a change in role to the bullpen to allow him to focus on commanding/controlling less types of pitches, I think he still has significant major league potential. While his FB velocity is not that great right now, a move to the bullpen should, as it has for many other former college starters, should cause it to tick up 2-3 mph, which would be more than enough for him to be a quality reliever in the majors...if he gets his command/control, well, under control.
9. Franco Aleman (22/23) - People are currently rehashing the Will Benson trade and talking about how the light went on for him sometime this season. Well, if you back on Benson's stats the light went on for him in 2023 in the minors. It just took it a little time to come back on in the majors. The same can be said for Aleman who was not a priority prospect for the Guardians coming into 2023. He was just a multi-inning reliever who threw very hard but with pretty much bad results. Then he got promoted to Akron and, well, the SPOTLIGHT went on. After having a combined 5.8 ERA at A/A+, Aleman ripped off 19 relief outings, many multiple inning games, without allowing an earned run. Until he gave up 5 unearned runs in his last two outings he wasn't even scored upon in those first 17. He only gave up 9 hits, 5 walks while striking out 38 in 24 innings in Akron. In short, he was untouchable. His FB sat at 96/97 and touched triple digits in at least one outing. His breaking stuff looked sharp which, combined, is the EXACT recipe for being an untouchable reliever. Another key: as a 2021 college draftee he doesn't even have to be rostered until after 2024, meaning, to me, he immediately becomes a priority prospect for Cleveland and a guy they will likely push to Columbus either to start 2024 or a month or so into the season if he comes close to repeating 2023 if he is asked to start 2024 in Akron to polish him up more before he is thrown to the dogs in Columbus. In any case, like Will Dion, Aleman looks like another success story from our 2021 draft of essentially all college pitchers.
10. Tommy Mace (24) - Like Nikhazy, this placement for Mace is 100% based on pedigree and what the Finishing School has been shown they can do to get the best out of college pitcher draftees, especially from the 2021 class, it appears. Mace is older but still have a year until he has to be rostered so starting 2024 at AA is no problem for the Guardians' player development group. They have all of 2024 to see what they have in Mace. Mace doesn't throw hard and, unlike Nikhazy doesn't miss many bats. He still walked too many at AA but it was his lack of ANY overpowering stuff and his lack of pitchability that caused him to get eaten alive after his promotion to AA. Likely, unless The Finishing School can mke miraculous transformation in Mace, he is likely destined for the bullpen. However, with his moxy and the increase in FB velocity likely with that move, he still has some potential with his projection now being a mediocre #5 starter at the low side to a Eli Morgan-like reliever in the middle and a Trevor Stephan-like reliever at his ceiling.
11. Aaron Bracho (22) - Bracho, after two poor seasons at Lake County where he hit UNDER .200 without much power, had a breakout year in Akron in 2023 hitting 18 HRs with an OPS of .781. He is still very young (2 years below average for AA) but, as it is with so many international amateur free agents who signed in 2017 at age 16, the lost year has really put him and his team behind the 8 ball due to the loss of a development year due to the pandemic in 2020. Like all other 2017 signees, he is eligible to be a 6 year minor league free agent this winter. There is no path that I see to him making the 40 man roster so the best I can see for the Guardians is if they are able to re-sign him as a MiLB free agent and assign him to the AAA protected list this winter and if he can pass through the ML portion of the Rule 5 draft.
12. Ross Carver (23) - He came over in a minor trade for Carlos Vargas this past off-season. While his upside was limited even at the time, his 2023 performance, clouded by an early-season injury, was one of the most disappointing for a Cleveland pitching prospect, at least IMO. Carver has a lot of work to do to be any more than a Thomas Ponticelli organizational innings eater at this point but the fact that the Guardians are sending him to the AFL this fall tells me they are still interested in whether he can develop into a priority prospect for them. Heck, it worked for Cade Smith and Lenny Torres, to some extent, last year so what the heck. It's worth a shot with a guy with Carver's breaking stuff.
There are other guys who deserve attention here. Connor Kokx, Milan Tolentino, Tyler Thornton, Jack Leftwich and Cade Smith will likely be ranked in to the top 50 of Guardians prospects this off-season. Some or all of them may develop into fringe major leaguers in the future with just continued improvement and, if any of them have light-year level improvement, maybe more than that.
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