The Guardians used to be able to avoid having their draft picks play in the first year. In 2022 this kept us from seeing what we got in picks like Furman, Messick, Lipscomb and even Lampe, although we did get to see Lampe go 0-10 last year in a cameo at Lynchburg that did kind of portend what we have seen out of Lampe after the first month of 2023. This year, because of a change in rules, most 2023 draftees have to be placed on a minor league roster this year and so we get a look at what the 2023 draftees look like. So I thought it would be good to compare how my 2023 draft picks are doing compared to what the Guardians draft picks are doing.
Here are the numbers:
FIRST ROUND
Guardians: Ralphy Velasquez: ROOK: 23 AB, .348/.393/.749/1.132
My mock draft:: Hurston Waldrep: A/A+/AA: 1.80 ERA, 25 IP, 15 H, 13 BB, 36 K
SECOUND ROUND
Guardians: Alex Clemmey - Guardians said they were holding him out until fall instructs.
My mock draft: Jake Gelof - ROOK/A ; .226 BA/.748 OPS, 6 HR, 20 BB, 24 K in 133 AB.
COMP B PICK
Guardians: Andrew Walters - Guardians did not let him pitch
My mock draft: Joe Whitman - ROOK/A - 1.86 ERA, 9.2 IP/4 H/3 BB/13 K
THIRD ROUND
Guardians: CJ Kayfus - A .271/.429/.542/,971, 4 HR in 59 AB
My mock draft: Levi Wells - Did not pitch this season
FOURH ROUND
Guardians: Cooper Ingle - A+ .289/.464/.385/.848 in 52 AB
My mock draft: Michael Carico - Rookie/A 16 AB, .188/.385/.111
FIFTH ROUND
Guardians: Christian Knapczyk - DID NOT PLAY
My mock draft:Jace Bohrofen, Rookie/A 7 HR/77 AB .299/.443/.636/1.080
SIXTH ROUND
Guardians: Tommy Hawke - Rookie 17 AB, .235/.381/.294/.675
My mock draft: Alex Mooney - A 66 AB .152/.263/.212/.475
SEVENTH ROUND
Guardians: Alex Mooney - A 66 AB .152/.263/.212/.475
My mock draft: Ross Dunn - DID NOT PLAY
EIGHTH ROUND
Guardians: Jonah Advincula - Rookie - 16 AB .250/.519/.563/1.081
My mock draft: Blake Dickerson - DID NOT PLAY
NINETH ROUND
Guardians: Jay Driver - 9.2 IP/ 13 H, 2 HE, 11 BB/ 16 K, 9.31 ERA
My mock draft: Matt Etzel - Rookie/A/A+ 96 AB, .323/.455//510/.966
TENTH ROUND
Guardians: Matt Wilkinson - Rookie - 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 3 K
My mock draft: Tanner Witt - DNS - but may have signed in my draft strategy.
SUMMARY
Remember, that my draft would have cost about $100,000 less than the Guardians draft.
Also, first year stats are always suspect because of small sample size.
Even with those provisos the stats show that:
My mock draft won on rounds 1 and 9, the Guardians won on round 4, we tied at round 6 and rounds 2, 2c, 3, 5, 7, 8 and 10 were not comparable as one or both drafts had players who did not play this year.
So, there you have it. Next year will tell how my mock draft compared to the Guardians draft as too many players did not play this year to make such a comparison possible. Initially, my only comments besides what I have made in my draft analysis is that I would rather have a college pitcher in Waldrep who has shown the ability to compete in AA ball already rather than a HSer who has to catch to be worth a first round pick being successful in rookie ball.
Next year will tell the tale, however. I remain both confident in my mock draft ending up superior to the Guardians 2023 draft and disappointed that the Guardians, with all their resources, have blown a second consecutive draft, really hamstringing this organization in terms of its prospect pipeline. You cannot make huge mistakes like this when you are a small market club, especially when your strategy (hit over power, LH over RH) is taken to such an extreme that you are the only franchise in baseball who are trying this...especially after it failed (Lampe, Furman, Lipscomb) in 2022 and at the ML level it has only succeeded with Kwan.
You did not win round 1. Might be a draw at best, but you are a little overeager to pat yourself on the back! LOL
ReplyDeleteWill give you round 9.
You mistake, as you tend to do, me patting myself on the back and my trying identify a serious problem with our amateur draft decisions and strategy. The only way it would be about me is if I wanted a job on their draft group, which I don’t. When your 1st round pick is someone whose best ranking is 37th in the country who is 5 years away from the majors instead of a guy who was rated 19th and might be in the majors next year, when you draft a bunch of slap hitters, when you continually draft hurt pitchers or pitchers who get hurt before making their pro debuts, your process has a problem. That is really all that I am trying to point out so maybe someone will try to fix it instead of waiting 5 years and then saying, 'Man, that 2023 draft really was not good" and then washing that down with 'well, the draft is just a crapshoot anyway', I would like the problems fixed now. When the draft team do things that defy logic...and they don't work, I want it fixed going forward even though the screwed up (overall) 2022 and 2023 drafts already have buried us down the road a piece. That's all this is, not something for bragging rights. Just saying that if walks and talks like a duck it is a duck. Any these draft guys are giving us quackery every draft, at least for the last 2.
ReplyDelete