Tuesday, November 14, 2023

Bibee ROY Fallout and Roster Protection Day

Bibee

Good fans, some among the very knowledgeable, getting on Twitter yesterday and then saying "Wait, we don't get a draft pick and Bibee gets a full year of service time if he finishes 1st or 2nd in the ROY voting?"  Like Zach Meisel informs the world.  Problem is I have been saying this for 2 months.  Knowledgeable fans should have known this.  Wouldn't have changed anything but this is what makes guys like Meisel look like experts...when they just state the obvious because no one else is paying attention.

And to clarify some things::

  • the Guardians were not trying to be cheap by not rostering Bibee at the beginning of 2023.  We had 5 solid starters and he didn't really have to be rostered until after 2024.  So why start his option clock by rostering him if he wasn't going to stick?
  • This 'revelation' about the PPI is no reason to roster Manzardo next opening day.  The odds of him winning the ROY are slim with the competition he has.  At least 3 of the top 10 prospects in baseball could be on AL opening day rosters and if a guy like Yamamoto is in the AL, while he won't be eligible for PPI, he could throw a monkey wrench into the works by being named ROY, screwing every other team who has a qualified ROY candidate.
  • Simply, as I have been saying for two months now, this rule needs to be changed.
Rule 5 Protection Day

This day used to scare the crap out of me as I feared we would not protect enough guys.  The last two years have made more comfortable the Guardians have this under control.  Now I am scared that the Guardians will do something stupid (see Tobias Myers, see Juan Brito for Nolan Jones) on this day.  Let's look at some stupid things they might do, given that the 40 man is completely filled:
  • DFA or trade Karinchak to clear a roster spot.  James is the whipping boy for fans' frustrations.  Still, look at his stats.  He is not someone you DFA and get, essentially, nothing for him or trade him for peanuts because MLB GMs know he is in the dog house in Cleveland.
  • Trade for yet another guy who will not be rostered by one of their competitors.  This includes trading Karinchak
  • DFA or trade for little value prospects on the 40 like Noel, Gonzalez, Jonathon Rodriguez to clear roster space for prospect additions while leaving flotsam like Rivas, Kelly and Laureano on the roster
  • Make a multiplayer trade where we give up more than we get driven by the need to clear roster space.
Look, the guys we need to protect are Espino, Hankins and Frias.  These are the guys with huge upsides who could be in the majors by opening day 2025.  Relievers like Cade Smith, Misiaszek and Mikolajchake have upsides only as fungible middle relievers in the majors, just like Kelly and Enright last year.  You simply don't protect them when guys like De Los Santos pop up all the time.  The issue is that we never sign any of those guys choosing, isntead, to sign bad MLB free agents in the beginning of March.

So what SHOULD happen today is that we DFA or trade Kelly, Rivas and Laureano and roster Espino, Hankins and Frias.  Then we can approach the off-season by using our prospects on the 40 to get veteran players in here...assuming you think the Manzardo trade signals that our FO have gotten their heads out of their butts and are now making good trades for a change.
If they avoid doing either of those things

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