Friday Musings - Post- Draft Lottery Hangover and Rule 5 Results/Possible Insights Into Guardians' Thinking

THE HISTORIC LOTTERY

 Ahh, the essence of a lottery.  Long odds against you, prize at the end is (relatively) huge, no real expectations but an understanding up front that if you win it is a historic event and, potentially, franchise-altering, in a positive way.

The Guardians had such a historic windfall in winning the #1 overall selection in the 2024 draft, as I alluded to before, a Lebron year type windfall, that it has to be a positive.  Here are some of the positives:

• Our draft budget for 2024 just went up about $5 million. 
• The amount that we could go over our budget and not lose our 2025 1st round pick went up by $250,000 (5% of $5 million), which adds even more cash.
• Most teams go under the slot value significantly with these top picks.  It is not out of the question that the Guardians could sign their 1st rd. pick for under slot and save $500,000 for picks later in the draft AND sign the best available player at #1.  
• Having the 1st overall pick improves our ability to draft for need as there shouldn't be that much difference in ability of the first few players.  Normally a team should draft the best available player instead of the best available player that fills a gap in their system.  At #1 overall those two goals coalesce.  
• We shouldn't forget that having a competitive balance A pick and drafting 10th overall  in the rest of the draft ALSO add to the quality of our draft.  Last year we drafted 24th.  Imagine, in each round, having 14 more of the best available players in that round that you can choose from.   If you want an example, in 2023 if we had just picked ONE slot better we would have gotten a much better prospect in Colt Emerson.  If Atlanta, who picked one spot after us, had been one spot lower they might not have gotten Hurston Waldrep, who immediately turned into one of the top 100 prospects in baseball.  

Here are my other thoughts on this windfall:

• People who say Dolan is cheap and won't spend the money associated with this draft and having the #1 overall pick are likely way wrong.  History (the last 2 drafts, at least) tell me that the Guardians go OVER their draft budget, almost all the way to the last dollar over before they would lose a 1st round pick the following year.  So, folks, stop worrying.
• The Dolan haters who say that Dolan will just trade the pick to save money are wrong because this pick cannot be sold or traded.
• No one has suggested this but, for me, this draft windfall DOES raise the possibility that the Guardians may trade their Competitive Balance "A" pick, which is the 35th pick in the 2024 draft.  That WOULD be a cheap move unless it was used to get a great player in lieu of losing a good prospect in that same trade (bird in the hand worth more than ONE in the bush, so to speak)
• The other obvious negative outcome that might occur is that the Guardians could go way under slot with the 1st round pick to save money.  That might make some sense as this is supposed to be a weak draft.  They could then use the savings to draft and sign tough-to-sign top talents in later rounds who they normally couldn't afford.   Or, most negatively, they could just pocket some of all of that under slot savings.
• So, if you know me, you know there is one final elephant in my room.  In my opinion the last two drafts, outside of the apparently successful gamble on an injured, same-side-challenged, DeLauter, have been unmitigated disasters.  While injuries have hurt initial returns from these drafts, the problem with both is the concept: draft LH slap hitters with good strike zone control.  In almost every case they drafted for that desire, eschewing the best available players at that point.  And the results have simply been disastrous.  The prime example is drafting Ralphy Velasquez instead of the more obvious choice of Hurston Waldrep.  The latter is already a top 100 prospect and could well be in the majors with ATL in 2024. But there are many other examples: slap hitters Joe Lampe, Nate Furman, Guy Lipscomb in 2022 whose failures were likely not considered when doubling down with CJ Kayfus, Cooper Ingle, Christian Knapczyk, Tommy Hawke and Alex Mooney in 2023.  This, to me, is spitting in the face of baseball wisdom and of the struggles of the parent team as far as how lack of power hurt this team in 2023, to take a path no one else is taking.  This is a sign of the hubris of the FO and, especially, the amateur scouting department.

RULE 5 RESULTS

The Rule 5 came and went and here are my general observations and specific ones about the Guardians

General Thoughts

• The ML phase looked a little light this year, even though, in the days before the draft, there was only 1 team (Tampa Bay) who had a full 40-man roster and there were 13 teams with 3 or more openings on their 40-man roster.
• As usual, the draft focused heavily on pitchers as, of the 10 players selected, 8 were pitchers, with one SS/Util INF and one 1B/3B (Dreyvison De Los Santos) selected.  Pitchers, of course, have more flexibility as they can act as relievers or starters.  
• 4 of the 10 players selected were ranked in their team's top 30 prospects at the time of the Rule 5 with De Los Santos being the highest as Arizona's #5. 
• Four of the 8 pitchers selected were among the top ones available for this draft, according to the list provided by MLB.

Thoughts Related to the Guardians

• Although many informed prospect geeks among Guardians fans (me included) were hoping the Guardians went for a pitcher they did not.
• Instead, the Guardians drafted into a position of excess, 1B/3B where we already have Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Manzardo and the overflow from the MIF prospects, not to mention prospect Jhonkensy Noel and even the infamous AAAA player, Alfonso Rivas.  In addition, if the thought is to play De Los Santos at DH, that has been a position where the starters rest instead of taking a whole day off in addition to it being held for Manzardo when he is ready.  As far as his potential as a hitter, however, De Los Santos is top shelf in terms of his potential if we can find a way to keep him on the roster this year. More about him and how his presence would impact the 26 man roster this year in a later blog post.
• The Guardians did not lose anyone in the ML portion of the Rule 5 which is a good thing.  I think this was partially due to the lack of activity, in general, in the ML portion. Looking at who was selected, there was no way that any of the available Guardians prospects stacked up against the players who were selected in terms of current ability and the ability to stick on a 26-man roster next spring.  For example, Dayan Frias is a good prospect but Nazim Nunez is a much more polished version of Frias.  Ditto for Ethan Hankns & Lenny Torres, Jr. compared to the pitchers selected.  As I said before the draft, there was a wealth of available pitchers which helped the Guardians not lose anyone in the major league phase.  Catchers were not targeted which also aided the Guardians in keeping Bryan Lavastida.  
• Let's take a look at the players the Guardians gained and lost in the minor league phase:
• Gained:
• Tyler Brown - RHP - Relief pitcher who succeeded at AA and tasted a little AAA this year.  There is a lot to like in this kid and he stands an excellent chance to start the year in AAA, giving us another fringe relief prospect who could blossom and provide us injury replacement depth on the ML roster.  It sounds like his FB velocity took a bump up when he moved to the bullpen.  If our pitching gurus can help keep him on the step part of his learning curve, we might have a hidden gem in Brown.
• Connor Gillispie - RHP - Gillispie, like Brown, has completed his necessary work in dominating AA in 2023 so should have a place on the Columbus pitching staff in 2024.  He worked both as a starter and reliever in 2023.  I love his pitching line as, in 2023 he made 14 starts, 11 relief appearances, had 2 complete games, 1 shutout and 2 saves.  That is a pretty versatile stat line at a high level for a guy available in the minor league Rule 5.  I am really excited to see Gillispie pitch in 2024.
• John Doxaxis - LHP - Doxaxis is the typical minor league portion Rule 5 pickup. For example, Bradley Hanner, our MiLB R5 pick from last year was only mediocre in A+ ball in 2022 but blossomed in AA ball and held his own in the AFL in 2023.  Hanner is not a priority prospect for the Guardians but should move up to AAA in 2024, putting himself only 1 step from the majors.  Doxaxis will likely start 2024 in Akron and we will see if the Guardians' pitching doctors can fix what is wrong with his delivery and get the kind of result improvement they got from Hanner.  You can never have too many pitching prospects, especially LH pitching prospects.
• Lost
• Bryce Ball 1B - Ball looks like a professional baseball first baseman.   He is big, hits for some power and is good around the first base bag.  But he was picked up as a MiLB free agent during the season by Akron.  He might turn into a good MLB player given his physical and hitting tools but, as this point, he just seems like a career minor leaguer.
• Samuel Vazquez - RHP - Vazquez pitched in Lynchburg as a 23 year old in 2023.  He possesses a huge fastball, topping 100 mph.  He is the typical hard-throwing lottery ticket that a team hopes their pitching instructors can get consistency, control and command out of a guy who possesses a plus plus fastball like Vazquez does.  We may look back at this in years to come and kick ourselves over this loss but I am pretty confident that that won't be the case.  If it is, more power to the Nationals pitching development people.
• Thomas Ponticelli - RHP - Ponticelli was the typical innings eating Swiss army knife during his career with the Guardians.  He was like the minor league version of Josh Tomlin but his stuff just never put him over the top.  As an organizational guy at the top of a team's minor league chain he fills an important role and may, if things click, get some ML time in the future.  Still, looking at both Brown and Gillispie, I like their chances more than I like Ponticelli's so I am willing to accept the risk of a team unlocking Ponticelli's potential.
• Rule 5 Summary: I think the Guardians did well in the Rule 5.  They didn't lose anyone in the ML phase and gained a very interesting prospect with power potential, albeit at a position where we don't have a need.  In the minor league portion I think we got back more potential than we lost which is a good thing.

Columbus Reserve List

Something that is rarely mentioned is that the Rule 5 draft revolves around the players protected and not protected on a teams AAA reserve list.  The Guardians started the Rule 5 with 35 players on their AAA reserve list, as indicated by the announcer at the beginning of the minor league portion.  Although that list is not public, knowing which Rule 5 eligible players are on that list would be insightful to see who the organization thinks is their top Rule 5-eligible prospects are who they couldn't protect on their ML roster.  So here is my best guess.  Note that I have included all their minor league FA signings (all are eligible for the ML Rule 5) and the guys they actually picked in the minor league Rule 5 who all have to be added to the Columbus reserve list (thus the reason we only drafted 3 players).  Note that none of the 3 players we lost in the minor league phase were on the Columbus reserve list, obviously.  In the list below are guys that I guess are on this list but that I have no evidence for.

Pitchers (19): Barria, Bilious,Tyler Brown, Doxaxis, Enright, Connor Gillispie, Gose, Mikolajchak, Misiaszek, Oller, Scott, Burns,Torres, Jr., Hankins, Hanner, Jerson Ramirez, Wolf, LaBaut, Sabrowski, 

Catchers (4): Lavastida, Eric Rodriguez, Micael Ramirez, Nelson Aranguren

Infielders (10): Raynel Delgado, Pries, Schneeman, Bracho, Juan Benjamin, Christian Cairo, Maick Collado, Jose Devers, Dayan Frias

Outfielders (5):  Antunez, Burgos, Esteban Gonzalez, Alexfri Planez, Lexer Saduy

Again, a lot of this is speculation.  Some of these players are on the Columbus roster right now, some of them appear here because they were in the AFL (guess you wouldn't be sending someone to the AFL if they weren't at least going to be on your AAA reserve list) and some are just my guesses.