Wow, as I was working on this Guardians Twitter blew up with a widget/app/whatever that allows you to predict the roster for your team in 2027. So I finished this in a hurry. Here is how it goes.
OK, the 2026-7 off-season has officially begun. I wanted to start this off-season looking at our 40-man roster and see where the Guardians are and where I think they will be going. so, let's dive in. [NOTE: Thanks to MLB Trade Rumors for the arbitration estimates and Fangraphs Guardians 2027 roster resource page for everything else]
Locks for 40-man roster spots
1. Jose Ramirez
2. Gavin Williams
3. Chase DeLauter
4. Cade Smith
5. Parker Messick
6. Travis Bazzana
7. Patrick Bailey
8. Angel Genao
9. Brayan Rocchio
10. Angel Martinez
11. Daniel Espino
12. Erik Sabrowski
13. Joey Cantillo
Locks if they don't get traded or non-tendered
14. Steven Kwan (arb. estimate $11.3 MM, 1 year of control left)
15. Jo Adell (arb. estimate $9.6 MM, 1 year of control left)
16. Tanner Bibee (long term deal through 2029 wth club option for 2030, 3 options remaining)
17. Hunter Gaddis (arb. estimate $2,2 MM, 1 option remaining, 3 years of control)
18. Slade Cecconi (arb. estimate $2 MM, 1 option remaining, 4 years of control)
19. Matt Festa (arb. estimate $1.5 MM, 0 options remaining, 3 years of control)
20. Tim Herrin (arb. estimate $1.3 MM, years of control left, 3 years of control)
Fringe Rookies (likely to be rostered but not likely to have big impact in 2027, all with 5+ years of control left)
21. Petey Halpin
22. Andrew Walters
23. Cooper Ingle
24. Khalil Watson
25. Franco Aleman (DFA/Trade possibility)
Non-rostered players (likely to be rostered to protect them against the Rule 5 draft)
26. Jaison Chourio
27. Justin Campbell
28. Kody Huff
29. Ben Lively
Fringe Players (may be rostered, non-tendered or DFA'd as needed (all with 3+ years of control))
30. Craig Yoho (1 options left)
31. Logan Allen (no options left)
32. David Fry (2 option left)
33. Kyle Manzardo (1 option left)
34. CJ Kayfus (2 options left)
35. Daniel Schneeman (2 options left)
36. Austin Peterson (rookie, 2 options left)
37. Yorman Gomez (rookie, 2 options left)
38. Colin Holderman (arb. estimate $2 MM, 1 option left)
Likely to be Non-tendered
39. Blake Perkins (1 options left)
THOUGTS ON WHERE WE GO THIS OFF-SEASON
1. Unless we sign a FA that has to be rostered before the lockout, the Guardians will probably do nothing. We will have at least a 39=man roster at that point and I really don't see the Guardians giving up on any of these guys except for maybe Perkins (first) or Yoho.
2. If we have to DFA guys to clear roster space I see us doing it, in order:
a. Perkins
b. Yoho
c. Fry
d. Allen (because he is out of options)
e. Festa
f. Aleman
3. I would like to see us do the following
a. Sign Skubal (10 years, $350 MM)
b. Sign Seya Suzuki (5 years, $100 MM)
4. If we get these two guys we sign:
a. Austin Hedges, 1 yr, $3.5 MM
b. Colin Holderman 1 yr, $1.5 MM
5. Promote Ralphy Velasquez and Ben Lively on opening day
Assuming no injuries (LOL) my opening day roster would look like this:
Starting Pitchers (5): Skubal, Williams Messick, Bibee, Lively
Bullpen (8): Smith, Gaddis, Sabrowski, Herrin, Holderman, Espino, Cantillo, Cecconi
Catchers (2): Bailey, Hedges
Infielders (5): Ramirez, Velasquez, Bazzana, Rocchio. Genao
Outfielders (5): Suzuki, Kwan, DeLauter, Adell, Schneeman
Utility (1) - Fry
Starting Lineup:
1. Kwan LF/CF
2. DeLauter LF/DH
3. Ramirez 3B
4. Suzuki RF
5. Velasquez 1B
6. Bazzana 2B
7. Schneeman CF/Adell LF/DH
8. Bailey C
9. Rocchio SS
Rest of 40-man roster:
1. Campbell
2. Chourio
3. Huff
4. Ingle
5. Aleman
6. Kayfus
7. Peterson
8. Gomez
9. Manzardo (1 option left)
10. Halpin
11. Watson
12. Walters
13. Angel Martinez (1 option left)
14. Tolentino (if we don't sign him as a minor league free agent rostering him allows us to keep him and, if needed, trade him without losing him for nothing)
Non-tender: Perkins, Festa
DFA/Trade: Allen, Yoho
WILD CARDS
Emmanuel Clase
Luis Ortiz
I know this is a long shot but...
IF they are acquitted and...
IF MLB doesn't suspend them...
the Guardians will have to decide what to do with these two assets. That's right, I used the word ASSETS because these guys have value as major league pitchers even if their reputations are soiled, maybe beyond repair. Teams like Cleveland can't just walk away from valuable assets just on principal.
So, what are the options:
Clase:
Keep: for $8 MM ($10 MM salary - the $2 MM buyout they would have to pay him anyway) they get another quality relief arm
Trade: A number of teams would want a quality relief arm. Packing him with prospects or Kwan might net a quality player (e.g., Ketel Marte).
Release: Again, they still owe him $2 MM
Ortiz:
Keep: With the Guardians' current team, he would simply provide minor league depth. He would be cheap (didn't make the super 2 cut) and he has 2 minor league options left
Trade: Given the salary and minor league options and his tools and limited previous success, he could be an attractive trade chip.
Release: If they release Ortiz, it likely would not impact the team's success as he is just a depth option.
However, this is the limited-resource Guardians and just releasing him seems like a waste. Very similar, in my mind, to the Plesac/Clevinger situation where they kept Plesac and traded Clevinger after the COVID curfiew thing.
If we roster them:
1. Clase replaces Holderman who we try to re-sign to a minor league deal
2. Ortiz replaces Kayfus who we DFA and/or trade.
So, there you have it. If you believe that Clase would hurt this team I think you sign him and trade him. If you believe that Ortiz will be a distraction you trade him. But under no circumstances do you just release either of them. If you don't want them, get something out of them. Their absence has likely cost this team some success over the past two years. Let's not compound that by releasing them just because some people think it is the right moral thing to do.
No comments:
Post a Comment