The Post-Season Is Nearly Upon Us

 Some early thoughts on the Post-Season

Minor League Free Agents to Sign 

Time to load up.  It is 50/50 whether the ML season will start on time.  But the AAA season will definitely start on time.  The issue is that the Guardians, currently, have 7 prospects on their 40 man who could legitimately start 2027 at AAA. 

Aleman, Peterson, Walters, Ingle, Kayfus, Watson. Yorman Gomez

If the Rule 5-fueled additions to the roster in November are included, the following 3 players who could play at AAA in 2027 would also be ineligible to play in the minors during a lockout.

Kody Huff, Jaison Chourio, Justin Campbell, Ben Lively(?)

Plus there may be 7 additional players already on the 40-man roster who might have been spring training casualties, if they are not cut this winter.  

Schneeman, Halpin, Fry, Yoho, Logan Allen, Manzardo, Perkins

This means there are up to 17 players who could have ended up in Columbus at the beginning of 1017 who now will be ineligible until the lockout is over.

What's my point? 

If you are aggressive you can sign minor league free agents after the World Series and make sure your roster is stacked with good players who DO get to go to spring training and start the AAA season on time, thus having a leg up over 40-man roster players in being ready for the start of the season which is very important if you want to hit the ground running and if you have injured players to start the season.

The list of available players will become more clear over the first couple of weeks after the end of the World Series but with over 15 openings on an approximately 30 man AAA roster (including injuries and developmental list).  I'm not talking Brogdon or even Holderman type free agents.  Maybe a couple of guys who have sustained success or are good comeback risks on a minor league deal (like Lively was),

The upside of being aggressive is we have lots of space.  The downside is that any minor leaguer we add will STILL be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if we add them before that draft.  

We have a couple of guys of our own who we should consider signing (Milan Tolentino, George Valera) and there have to be dozens of guys who we might want to bring in to spring training who could help us out of the gate.  I am thinking mainly relief pitchers here and not the true bargain basement signings we have become used to. 

So, Guardians, be aggressive and persuasive.  

Rule 5 Roster Additions

The annual roster freeze day for Rule 5 draft purposes is November 17th.  As in any year, the team has to weigh protecting prospects who could be lost in the Rule 5 vs leaving spots open on their 40-man for off-season additions.  

By now you should know that I think the ML Rule 5 draft is a waste of time and money and creates unnecessary stress on players and organizations.  Get rid of it.  Now.

But since, like in the lockout of 2021, the Rule 5 might actually happen even if there is a lockout, the Guardians have to go through their normal process.

The Guardians are, IMO, master class in deciding who to protect and, therefore, have not lost anyone of significance in years (a very injured, A ball  OFer Anthony Santander is the last one I recall).  

So, with that in mind, let's expand on what I said above.  Here's my list of guys they should protect and guys that should gamble on leaving unprotected.

Who they should protect:

Jaison Chourio - Chourio is MLB Pipeline's 5th best Guardians prospecdt and played the majority of 2026 in Akron so this is a no-brainer roster addition

Kody Huff - Huff has spent the last 2 years at AAA and in 2026 improved his hitting and added 1B & 3B to his resume as a defender.  While he isn't a top prospect he is a cheap backup and next man up.  I think we protect him as he is an easy selection by a team looking for a prospect who they can stash as a backup C and utility guy.  Plus, he is a RHH.

Justin Campbell - His injury history is a big question mark but his success in the minors, especially at AAA, in 2026 makes him very vulnerable as a guy a team could stash as a bulk reliever, mop-up man.  Given he was picked a round before Parker Messick, I can't see the Guardians risking leaving him. exposed to the R5.

Ben Lively - Lively is on a two year minor league deal but if they don't roster him they risk losing a very viable starting pitcher who should be fully ready for spring training.  He is an obvious Rule 5 pick if a team thinks there will be a long 2027 season.  Balancing that is that on his current contract Lively CAN pitch in the minors in 2027 but if he is rostered by the Guardians or picked up in the Rule 5 he cannot play in the minors during the lockout as he would be on a team's 40-man roster. It would be quite a gamble to leave him unprotected but I trust the Guardians.  Still, I think they protect him as the cost effectiveness of a veteran like Lively combined with how thin the Guardians' pitching depth is AND how expensive free agent pitching is, outweighs everything else.

Who they shouldn't/won't protect

The Guardians have surprised me over the years with who they protect.  One recent example is Tim Herrin. Another more recent example is Austin Peterson.  Cleveland appears to be VERY good at reading the room in terms of who teams might covet and that those guys do have value that warrants a roster spot.  This includes knowing which guys are too far away from the majors and/or have limited upside.  So, with history in mind, here are a few intriguing guys I think they won't protect.

Franklin Gomez - RHP - We got him from the NYM when we gave them $2.5 MM in international pool slot (don't get me started on that!). I am higher on him than most, but he does has some hot dog in him. He does have a little AA time but I'm hoping his lack of polish keeps him from being selected.

Jacob Zibin RHP - Their $1 MM overslot, Zibin has been hurt most of his pro career and, while he has upside, would likely not be able to function in the major leagues yet as he hasn't even pitched above A+ yet.

Jackson Humphries - LHP - A high bonus guy who has previously made appearances on Guardians' top prospect lists.  His repeat of A+ did not go well in 2026.

Michael Kennedy - LHP - A lot like Humphries, Kennedy has obbious talent but his results and stuff don't make him the type of guy a team could find a role for in a ML bullpen.

Tommy Hawke - OF - Of all the guys who are eligible, why would I mention Hawke? It is his defensive versatility (OF/2B) and the fact that he stole 108 bases and walked 128 times in 560 ABs in the last two years.  If a team thinks he has some potential as a Chandler Simpson clone if it appears MLB will force teams to not shift their OFers, he is an easy stash as a 5th outfielder on a rebuilding team.

If they don't protect any of these guys it would be hard to see them protecting any other Rule 5 eligible prospects they have.

FREE AGENTS

The most expensive way (dollars) but least intrusive (no prospects lost in trades) way to add talent to your major league roster is through free agency.  So here is my wish list which, IMO, will ONLY take money, not a lot of persuasion:

Tarik Skubal - 10 years, $350 million - Yeah, pipedream, but in a world where our team salary will have to go up dramatically (like $40-50 MM or more) with even a salary floor of $130 MM, this makes sense.  He loves Cleveland, by his own words, and with Vogt and Willis coming back he is landing in a good spot.  Plus, the core is young and we are looking good through 2030. So he gets stability money and team-wise. it makes perfect sense.

Seiya Suzuki: 5 years, $100 MM.  This one hurts more than most as he getting more than Jose Ramirez did at the same age and over the course of this 5 year period but he makes sense as a RHH who crushes LHP and a GG caliber defender in RF.

Shane Bieber - RHP - 1 year $10 MM, player option for $12 MM in 2028 with a $2 MM buyout - Bieber has been on my radar since this summer and maybe he AND Skubal are not possible but I think Bieber makes sense to give us additional rotation help.  A rotation of Skubal/Williams/Messick/Bibee/Bieber/Cantillo just makes sense as the right level of upside and protection in case of injruy with Cecconi/Allen/Peterson as depth/relief guys.

Shawn Armstrong - 1 yr. $5 MM - Yeah, I don't like this one but he was good in the playoffs so maybe there is something there.  If we can't do some of the things I suggest below, maybe we bring him back.

Colin Holderman - 1 yr $2 MM - If healthy he adds something to the bullpen.  Whether he can repeat his 2026 numbers is the question.  It depends on his health whether we bring him back.

Austin Hedges - 1 yr $3.5 MM - Just makes sense in a whole greater than the sum of its parts fashion. As a prospect geek I don't like it but if we sign these other guys, Hedges as a backup supports going for it in 2027 rather than handing the keys to the backup catcher position to a rookie. Plus, he wants to be here.

These additions would, essentially, double our payroll but we could save money if we trade or non-tender Adell and/or trade Kwan.  I don't like trading Kwan if we think he could handle CF for an entire season.  It all depends on what we could get for him in trade.  As far as Adell, he is expensive as a $9 MM platoon player and he has shown, once again, he can't hit RHP.  So if we sign Suzuki, Adell is expendable to save money.  If we don't sign Suzuki, an Adell/Ingle LF platoon makes sense.   

The X-Factors

 Who is the best available relief pitcher on the FA market?  That answer is simple: Emmanuel Clase.

IF he is exonerated of Federal charges and IF MLB doesn't pull a Black Sox/Pete Rose redo and ban Classe for life, there is a distinct possibility that we have to buy out Clase's 2025 contract for $2 MM, meaning the Guardians get him for only $8 MM more than they would have to pay if they let him go.

Would the Guardians even consider bringing him back? Well, if it could keep them from having to pay Armstrong or even Holderman, I would have to think about it.  I know this is likely considered heresy in these parts but, business-wise, it just makes sense, if everything breaks right.

Add to this mix Luis Ortiz and, again, we are getting a ML pitcher who we could convert to a bullpen arm and use as SP depth who we loved back when we got him.  

Even though Clase and Ortiz screwed our team people deserve a second chance and unless he is unrepentant, he has more to prove than most players going into 2027 and having Clase setting up Smith and as a backup if Smith gets injured or needs a rest, is almost priceless at the price it would cost us.   

You are free to start tossing your avatar rotten tomatoes at my avatar now.