What do we have in Alexfri Planez and Johnkensy Noel?

 From a pure logistical perspective one of the biggest gambles in setting the 40-man roster last winter was the inclusion of Johnkensy Noel.  Here was a guy who, due to the pandemic had never played above low A ball heading into last winter.  Just projecting one year of development per level, Noel could easily run out of option years before he hit the majors for the first time.  

Why would a team protect someone like that from the Rule 5 major league draft?  Well, all you had to do was to see him hit, both for power and average, and see his potential as a major league bat, including his prodigious home runs and his AB/HR ratio to see why the Guardians did not want to lose him.  

Yes, it was a big gamble to roster him last winter and created a 'dead' roster spot for the next 2 years at least, maybe 3, meaning that we had a guy on the 40-man who had no legitimate chance of helping the Guardians n 2022 and 2023 and only a small chance of helping them in 2024.  His arrival was likely in 2025 and that is if everything went well in his development AND if he didn't have to return to the minors.

But that bat!  

And then it got more complicated.   He is still hitting prodigious blasts but his batting average has remained low most of this year and his approach at the plate has become a two true outcome approach as he is going all Dave Kingman on us.  True he is a ridiculously low BABIP in the first half of the season and does have 19 HRs but I think his approach at the plate is starting to eat away at the overall value of his bat.  

So now it looks like we protected him too early.   Time will tell.

Then we have Alexfri Planez.    He started late this year because of an injury but when he came back he started going off and how has 8 HRs and 8 doubles in not that many ABs (I would say plate appearances but he has drawn only one walk meaning, for him, ABs = PA).  Last fall I said that we couldn't protect everyone and Planez was someone we had to leave unprotected.

But what about this coming winter?  

Well, having learned from Noel and knowing that (a) our 40 man roster is stacked and (b) we can't have any more dead roster spots with all the near-ML ready guys we have to protect, there is still no way to protect Planez this winter.   He could go off for 30 HRs for the rest of the year at Lake County and it wouldn't change a thing.  Planez will still take 2-3 years of development and we simply can't afford to protect him and run him out of option years not knowing if his development will even be linear (see Noel's nosedive this year).  

In hindsight protecting Noel last winter was most likely a mistake as his development has stalled at High A this year and he likely won't be ML ready before he is out of minor league options.   We just can't make the same mistake with Planez.  We have to put him on the Columbus reserve list this fall and hope he isn't drafted or, if he is, that he doesn't stick with the team that drafts him.  Although comparisons to Anthony Santander and Albert Pujols keep bouncing around in my brain and even Akil Badoo comps represent, to me, Planez's floor,  the pandemic and the ridiculous Rule 5 rules that make you protect 20 year old Latin prospects who have never played above A ball or risk losing them, we just simply canot protect A ball Latin prospects on our 40-man.

Trade deadline - Who are our trade chips?

 OK, time to start musing about who we can trade for and who would be prime trade chips.  

Assumpton: We are not trading for rentals and if

Trade Chips - 

To understand who would be trade assets we need to look at our lineup going forward.  Projecting, here is the best lineup I can imagine, given the current players we have:

C - Bo Naylor 

1B - Josh Naylor
2B - Freeman
SS - Gimenez
3B - Ramirez
LF - Gonzalez
CF - Straw
RF - Valera

DH - Reyes

Extra OF - Kwan/Palacios

Extra Catcher - Lavastida

Extra INF - Arias

SP1 - Beiber

SP2 - McKenzie

SP3 - Quantrill

SP4 - Plesas

SP5 - Civale

Closer - Clase

Bullpen - Hentges, Stephan, Morgan, Karinchak, OPEN, OPEN, OPEN

As far as the open positions in the bullpen I can see Daniel Espino, Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis filling those roles or we bring in some veterans.   Still, these guys represent my untouchables.

Who does that leave as trade chips.  Here they are, in order of the value I project for them:

Major Leaguers

1. Amed Rosaro

2. Ernie Clement

3. Anthony Gose

4. Nick Sanlin

Prospects

1. Gavin Willaims

2. Logan T. Allen

3. Johnkensy Noel

4. Peyton Battenfield

5. Konnor Pilkington

6. Brayan Rocchio

7. Nolan Jones

8. Angel Martinez

9. Jose Tena

10. Gabriel Rodriquez

11. Will Brennan

12. Milan Tolentino

13. Ethan Hankins

14. Joey Cantillo

15. Alexfri Planez

There are a number of other players who could be dealt for rentals.  This includes guys like Jose Fermin, Aaron Bracho, Junior Sanquintin.   These are guys who are likely not part of our future but still could have value in bringing in a reliever for a couple of months. 

Next we will examine the areas of need on this team and then who we might target and what I would be willing to pay for that player.  

Early mock draft for the Guardians

 OK, teams like who they like and draft who they like.   MLB, Baseball America, etc. don't generally have a handle on who teams like, just projecting the talent.

Common wisdom would have it that the Guardians would draft some hitters this year.   Looking at our history, I don't really think that they will draft a HS hitter early.   

So let's look at who they mght draft:

Round 1 (16 overall) - Gabriel Hughes RHP Gonzaga -  I know, I know, another college pitcher.  Still, looking at his scouting report and the warts of the college hitters who will be there when our turn comes around, I take the bird in the hand here.

Supplemental Round 1 (37 overall) - Jud Fabian - OF - Florida - I like his overall game and he is a college hitter worth our selection at this point.  

Second Round (54 overall) - Jacob Melton - OF - Oregon State - I like his speed/power combination.  Still, the Indians could very well use this selection on a HS pitcher who will have to be paid over slot for this selection.

Third Round (92 overall) - Luke Gold - 2B - Boston College - This is a reach as I don't think he will be available when we get to this pick but, if he is, he would be a good value here.  If not, they could pool savings from earlier rounds and draft a HS hitter who has dropped due to high bonus demands for his talent or poor spring performance.

Fourth Round (121 overall) - Xavier Isaac - 1B - North Carolina HS - Just like Bobby Bradley, I like this kid's game and he is clearly worth a selection here.

Fifth Round (151 overall) - I can't crystal ball this one but my thought is that they will save a little money on Hughes that they can apply to this pick and draft a HS pitcher who has dropped for some reason.

After the 5th round I see them following their usual script drafting some college senior pitchers and maybe throwing in a few college hitters.  I do think, however, they may focus on college pitching in the later rounds because the loss of the Mahoning Valley team really showed that they don't need to draft college positions players to fill out a roster.

Way too early look at this winter's 40-man roster

 Just musing on a Sunday night.   Thanks to Guardians Prospective for providing the list of Rule 5eligiblees for this winter's draft.   (NOtE: The text below edited to account for my math error n the number of infielders I counted.)

Looking at the list most of the eligible players are not even worth consdering.   They are either too low in the minors or not worth considering based on current levels of performance, or both.  Going through the list here are the guys we have to protect, in order, and the guys who will probably be prime targets for the Rule 5 ML draft.

Guys who, in a perfect world, should be protected:

1. Bo Naylor 

2. Hunter Gaddis

3. Peyton Battenfield

4. Xzavion Curry

5. Joey Cantillo

SUMMARY

Naylor is a lock with the tools he is showing this year.   Admittedly, this is his second season at AA so you would expect a bump in his stat line but good catching prospects are hard to find and his tools scream "Protect Me". The other three guys on this list are pitchers.  Battenfield will have a full year at AAA under his belt by this winter.  Young, successful AAA pitchers get protected..  If you consider Gaddis and Curry starting pitchers I am not sure you would protect them.  However, when you see them  pitch you could envision them pitching in Cleveland's bullpen as early as this September.   They could both be impact relievers next year with the stuff they have.  Very few scenarios where these guys would not be protected.  Cantillo has not pitched much since we got him in the Clevinger trade but he is coming on now.  His stuff isn't overpowering but he is having success in AA as a 22 year old.  There is an outside chance he won't be protected but if he keeps pitching like he is now, he will force his way onto the roster this winter.

Guys who are likely to not be protected

1. Angel Martinez

2. Will Brennan

3. Ethan Hankins

4. Nick Mikoajchak

5. Gabriel Rodriguez

6. Andrew Misiaszek

7. Nic Enright

8. Lenny Torres

9. Dayan Frias

10. Micah Pries

11. Ray Delgado

11. Junior Sanquintin

SUMMARY

There are some surprises this list, the type that gives ulcers to prospect buffs like me.  Martinez has been a highly ranked prospect the last couple of years but, frankly, he pales in comparison to the likes of Gimenez, Arias and Tyler Freeman to say nothing about proven hitters like Owen Miller and Palacios, who can both play the infield.  Brennan, eveyone's pet favorite this year, is essentially Kwan and Palacios and Straw.   I didn't like them protecting Kwan last winter and I don't see, given that Brennan doesn't project any better than Kwan, that they would spend a roster spot on him this winter. Hankins and Torres have been highly-ranked prospects for a couple of years with the guardians but they are too low in the minors and too early in their recovery from injuries to give them roster spots.   Some teams may take a flyer on them but I hope the their lack of experience and injury history will keep teams from taking a chance.  The minor league relievers, Mickoajchak, Misisazek and Enright just don't compare, to me, with the potential of Curry and Gaddis.  Generally minor league relievers who aren't throwing 98+ don't attract much interest in the Rule 5.   Guys like Rodriguez and Sanquintin have been highly ranked in the past but teams generally don't take a chance in the Rule 5 on guys who are mediocre performers at A ball.   I think the Guardians are also managing Rodriguez's ABs and batting him low in the lineup, maybe trying to hide him a little bit.

Guys not on this list who are eligible are not even close enough to the majors to even discuss at this point.  

40 man roster this winter

OK, so we know that in a perfect world we need to add 4 guys to the roster this year.  Given our roster crunch these would likely only be guys who could break camp with the Guardians or be first callups.  I think the four guys above fit that description.  But how does that impact the 40-man roster this winter?

Pitchers (20)

Peyton Battenfield

Shane Bieber

Joey Cantillo

Aaron Civale

Emmanuel Clase

Xzavion Curry

Enyel De Los Santos

Hunter Gaddis

Anthony Gose

Sam Hentges

James Karinchak

Triston McKenzie

Eli Morgan

Cody Morris

Konnor Pilkington

Zac Plesac

Cal Quantrill

Nick Sanlin

Trevor Stephan

Carlos Vargas

Catchers (3)

Hedges

Lavastida

Naylor

Infielders (11)

Arias

Clement

Tyler Freeman

Gimenez

Nolan Jones

Owen Miller

Jonkensy Noel

Jose Ramirez

Brayan Rocchio

Amed Rosario

Jose Tena

Outfielders (7)

Oscar Gonzalez

Steven Kwan

Josh Naylor

Richie Palacios

Franmil Reyes

Miles Straw

George Valera

That gives us 41 guys.   We currently also have Anthony Castro, Kirk McCarty, Tobias Myers, Yohan Ramirez on the current roster but I think any and all of those guys are expendable given our roster crunch.  Someone will have to go and I can't see who that will be without making a trade or two.  All of the above guys have value and most, including Carlos Vargas (given he is rehabbing at Akron and not at a lower level and can throw triple digits), have value to the ML team in 2023 with Noel being the only one who would be questionably ready next year and that is only because of his low BA this year.

So the bottom line here is that, using this year as a training ground,  we will have a good mix of young players with some experience and some guys at AAA who can impact the roster next year.   However, without trades, we don't have room to add veterans either as free agents or by making trades.   Thus, this winter like last winter the Guardians should use some of their young player capital to make a trade to bring in an impact OF bat.   

Still, even with the guys on the 40-man roster above, it is a solid group of pitchers and some potential in our hitters...and all of them controllable for a lot of years.  As a small market team, that is exactly where you want to be.

Early season top prospects list

 The Guardians are struggling at the major league level right now so let's do what us older fans have been trained to do during the bad years of the 70s, 80s and early 90s...look at our prospects and dream.

So, after watching MiLB games every day, looking over box scores and reading about the progress of our prospects I have compiled a list.   This list only includes players who will likely retain their prospect status during the year (thus the omission of Steven Kwan but not Richie Palacios) and are currently on a full-season minor league team or in the majors likely to return to the minors without losing their prospect status.   Thus players currently in extended spring training or on the Dominican summer league team roster for the Guardians are not included.

So, here goes:

1. Daniel Espino - Here is a guy that has to be pushing the top 20 prospects in all of baseball at this point.  The only knock on him and the only reason I see him maintaining his prospect eligibility this season is that does seem to have the penchant to give up hard contact.  He needs to develop another off-speed pitch to eliminae that and, until he does, he could get hit around pretty good in the majors as we would be burning hiis pre-arbitration years without a lot of return in performance.

2. George Valera -  Breaking out of his early season slump has helped my confidence that he belongs this high.   Still, I have concerns when I watch how his swing seems to break down at times.   Lots to like about this guy but he could go all the way from all-star to bust in terms of his future development.  Now I know every prospect has that possibility but not generally one that is rated this highly.

3. Gabriel Arias - There is a long way between Espino and Arias in terms of projection.   Now, is it possible that Arias becomes Jose Ramirez Part deux?  Maybe.  However, right now, he just looks like Amed Rosario with better fielding.   Not bad but not really perennial all-star level.

4. Tyler Freeman - Looks like he is shaking off the rust a little bit and I really like him but he is a second baseman in this system.   While he will hit, will he hit to the tune of .300 BA, .370 OBP, 30 2B, 17 HR 15 SB level we would like to see from an offensive-first second baseman?  Time will tell.

5. Brayan Rocchio - His numbers don't show it but he seems to be a very polished young player.  If he can pump up the steepness of his improvement curve a little bit he could be a great addition, or trade chip, down the road.  Right now he is scuffling but I don't see it as a long-term thing.

6. Gavin Williams - OK, I am on the bandwagon.   I know he is only facing A ball hitters but he is dominating as you would expect from a guy who deserves a promotion.  When, hopefully, he gets promoted if he continues with any semblance of a 3.00 1.2 K/IP guy at AA, then we can start dreaming on his potential as a front of rotation starter.

7. Milan Tolentino - He just looks so damn good for having been drafted as a HS hitter.   He is supposed to be a defense first guy whose bat is questionable but so far, maybe it is just the opposite.  

8  Logan T. Allen - I would have had him at #4 after the first few weeks but his performance has started to level out and I think this is a good place for him.  He is in line with the stuff that Biever, Plesac and Civale have and he becomes a little more like McKenzie and Quantrill we may have another solide mid-rotation starter for years to come.

9. Jonkensey Noel - I have always liked this guy more than the scouts.  I see him as a power-hitting outfielder with some control of the strikezone.  His early season performance has been uneven but I see him picking it up in the second half of the season to put up huge numbers.

10.  Bo Naylor - He is repeating AA and so you would expect his numbers to get noticeably better than last year but he looks good at the plate.  Plus, his defense appears to be very good, at least to my eyes.

11. Oscar Gonzalez - I get that it looks like I am jumping on the bandwagon here but the guy is 24 years old.  In his first ML game he showed a plus arm, plus speed, good use of the entire field as a hitter, obviously excellent power and decent defense.  The only thing he doesn't have is the ability to take a walk and, up to this year, a too-high strikeout rate.  Three plus tools and too average tools.   This doesn't look like an after-thought prospect.  He looks really good AND he looks like he has jumped on to the steep part of his learning vs time curve and has done it with hard work.  At least that is my impression.  

12. Hunter Gaddis - Look, he shouldn't stand out from higher rated. higher drafted prospects like Nikhazy, Mace, Battenfield, Pilkington, Burns, but the guy is putting up numbers at AA and he was throwing 96-97 mph late in the game of a recent start in which he also dominated.   His height with his stuff throwing 97 mph late into a game gives him a lot of street cred with me.  

13.  Nolan Jones - We don't really know what we have with him but he could be done really soon if he doesn't start to pick it up.   Looking at his numbers he doesn't stand out.  Let's hope this is his turnaround year.  

14. Will Brennan - He gets a lot of credit from me just based on his production.  If you can hit with some gap power and play good CF defense you have a spot.

From here on out it is a crapshoot.   We have lots of good prospects but none of them stand out to me.  So the next set of guys could be ranked anywhere from 15-30 in my mind.  

Jose Tena, Angel Martinez, Tanner Burns, Bryan Lavastida, Petey Halpin, Cody Morris, Carson Tucker, Peyton Battenfield, Xzavion Curry, Ethan Hankins, Jake Fox, Isaiah Greene, Tanner Bibee, Carlos Vargas, Joey Cantillo, Tommy Mace

After that we have a number of guys who can probably have a bump in production but have yet to break out to the point where they can be considered real prospects:

Doug Nikhazy, Xzvaion Curry, Gabriel Rodriguez, Nik Mikolajchak, Will Benson, Kirk McCarty, Konor Pilkington, Josh Wolf, Lenny Torres, Dayan Frias, Jose Ferman, Luis Durango, Joe Naranjo

Plus a number of minor league relievers with good stats:

Nick Mikolajchak, Andrew Mislaszek, Nic Enright, Kevin Kelly, Ben Krauth, Tim Herrin, Will Dion, Jerson Ramirez.

Oscar Gonzalez

 Over the past couple of years I have watched Gonzalez play.   I knew we was not a highly rated prospect and I understood the reasons why.

Still, watching him this year I saw a real difference in him.   Yeah, there was the usual power and the strong arm in right field.

But some of the things that kept him from being considered an elite prospect seemed to be disappearing.

• He never, to me, showed good speed but this year I saw him leg out some hits for Columbus that reminded me of the speed I see from Amed Rosario and Myles Straw.   But that couldn't be, right?  Well tonight they timed him going to first base in what was defined as close to elite speed.
• He never took many walks but at least this year at Columbus he was seeing more pitches than he had in the past.   This was borne out tonight as he worked pretty deep into counts, at least a lot deeper than earlier years.  Plus, in his major league debut he didn't strike out.  
• In Columbus he seemed to be trying to use the whole field as a hitter this year, maybe too much.  But tonight he got a hit to center and one to right.  When power hitters use the whole field they make themselves more of a weapon, not becoming an all or nothing guy.  
• He showed elite bat speed with his first ML hit leaving his bat at 113 mph.  In fact, in the game he hit 3 of the top 5 hardest hit balls.  That is impressive for a rookie who was not highly touted as a prospect AND in his first major league game.
• His OF defense was always suspect but in Columbus this year he looked better and he made a good running catch with the bases loaded early in the game.

There are 5 tools for a position player in baseball.  Tonight Gonzalez showed all of them to some degree.  That, to me, is a true elite prospect.  And you know what?  From this observer's vantage point, he is much improved all year in 2022, not just in this game.  The improvement, to me, is in some cases amazing, especially his apparent increase in foot speed.  The fact that he is using the whole field more as a hitter in addition to his improved defense and increase in foot speed shows to me that he is taking coaching very well and is doing what he needs to do to improve as a player.  

I think this guy could, given his current upward trajectory, become a lot more than the after thought prospect that a lot of these prospect 'experts' think he could be.   I wasn't sure before but I am now.  As scouts say, if you see it once it is in there.  What we saw tonight should show all the prospect experts that Gonzalez can be an elite prospect.   He already had the power and t appears he has done a lot of work to fill in the question marks in his game.  Tonight reinforced for me that he is working hard to fill in the holes in his game.  Will he ever be a great ML player?  Not until he learns to take more walks.   But given the other progresses he has made in his game in the past two seasons, I can clearly see how the lack of walks thing could disappear in another year or so.  

Wouldn't that be amazing if it did!

Tobias Myers: Have we seen this trade before

 More than a few of us were rolling our eyes and scratching our heads when the Guardians added a guy to their 40-man over the winter who had been DFA'd by Tampa Bay.  With the 40 man roster crunch (we didn't have a space for Oscar Gonzalez and we probably needed a veteran reliever or two) it seemed odd to add a guy like Myers but, you know, the Indians are great at developing pitchers.

Well, spring training went by and I wasn't impressed.

Early into the season, given the results at Columbus, I am not impressed.  The guy just looks bad.  Like minor league free agent bad.  

Which brings us to the other part the trade, the player the Indians gave up.   I admit I didn't know anything about Caminero before he signed with the Indians/Guardians.   But looking at his stats last year was eye-opening.   Look, guys just don't hit 9 HRs in the DSL.   These guys are young, not physically mature yet and need to learn to play.   As has been said, power develops later in a career.  They don't hit 9 HRs at 17 years old.

Then it occurred to me.  Was this deja vu all over again?  The following line from Baseball Reference should be burned in the brains of all long-time, die-hard Indians/Guardians fans:

April 3, 1974: [Bruce Ellingsen] traded by the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Cleveland Indians for Pedro Guerrero.

Yes, in one the absolutely worst trades in Indians' history, Bruce Ellingsen came to the Indians for a future all-star.   Ellingsen appeared in 16 games for the Indians that season and then never pitched in the majors again.  

Guerrero, who only hit 2 HR and ..255 in his DSL debut at 17, didn't here as many as 9 until 1975, didn't make a big impact in the majors until 1981.  Still, the similarities are very striking.   

Let's hope I am wrong but let's hope history doesn't repeat itself.  Or if we make another trade with the Rays, let's make sure we ask for Caminero back as a throw-in.   Heck, we'll even give them Myers back!