The 2024 Assessment Season Has Begun

 Some teams rebuild...for a long time.

Some teams re-tool

Some teams desperately do whatever they can, within their resources, to compete

Few, if any teams, have the resources internally that they need to sort through before they can compete.

The Guardians shocked their fans and much of the baseball world yesterday when they DFA'd Cal Quantrill.  While fans were searching for answers as to why the best case scenario was they had a trade in place that they just couldn't complete and the DFA bought them time beyond the approaching non-tender date to complete a trade.  

Then reality struck and that reality was the worst case scenario.  Chris Antonetti, in his press conference today, said that they would not pay Quantrill's expected arbitration salary as they didn't feel it was worth what their projected performance for him in 2024.  Pretty much that means that the Guardians made the determination that Quantrill was not expected to provide even 1.0 WAR value this year.   Given his 2022 season being great but much maligned by analytics people as not being sustainable and the last 6 starts when he came back from injuries in 2023 being better, these are not the words of a baseball guy thinking he is going all in on winning in 2024, especially when a look at the Guardians' farm system shows anyone that there isn't a single pitcher who will likely have a positive impact on the ML team until at least the all-star break.  Simply, they all have issues with their pitching that need to be sorted out or, minimally, refined to get them to be able to consistently get big league hitters out.

So, where does that leave us?

My opinion is that, knowing what we know now, we make the determination that we will NOT go for it in 2024.  

We should use that year as an assessment year.  We have too many prospect who have been blocked and so we don't know what we have in them, especially our MIFers and OF prospects.  They all need extended play to see what we have in them.  We need to determine who we keep and who we trade as, right now, the way they have been used, not used or misused has made them all worth MUCH less than I think they be.

Not a rebuild.  Not, for gosh sakes, a re-tool.  An asssessment year where we look at our internal options.  And here is how I would do it:

• Sign Josh Naylor to a long extension.  Very few times have I said that this is a good idea but look at the fire in his eyes, look at the improvements he made on both sides of the ball and you see a guy you want in Cleveland for the entire time that Jose Ramirez is here, and maybe one year beyond.    As this is a long-term play that can be backloaded, it should not impact our financial situation.  This extension is CRUCIAL and I repeat CRUCIAL to the long-term health of this team.
• Non-tender Ramon Laureano.  He has an expected $4.3 million arbitration salary.  No way should we keep him if we dumped Quantrill.  While his WAR might theoretically justify this salary, this team's current state cannot.  We have too many OF prospects we have to sort through this year.
• The only FAs we sign are starting pitchers who make $1.5 million or less.  We want guys who are emergency options in case our current, internal emergency options fall through.
• Set up the season so we play Rocchio, Freeman, Tena, JRod, Gonzo and even, after the all-star break, Noel and, if he is ready, DeLauter.
• Start the season with Manzardo as our DH.  Look, I was against this until yesterday but since we went for assessment instead of competing, it is worth a look at him in light of him being a possible ROY player, even though I think that is a long shot, at best.
• Keep James Karinchak.  Most of the impetus to get rid of him is frustration that he can't take that next step and, to an extent, is even regressing somewhat.  Still, 165 IP, 98 H, 253 Ks look above average to me and that is corroborated by hie ERA+ numbers each season.  At $1.9 million estimated arbitration salary he is a bargain and worth another year to see if he finally puts ALL of it together, or if he will just continue to regress.
• Remove Alfonso Rivas from the roster.  As I have said on Twitter, if Rivas is on this roster next spring this FO has their heads up their butts and will seal the deal that they have no idea what they are doing and this franchise is screwed.  You have so many internal options to sort through you don't need ultimate AAAA players like Rivas, Oller and other minor league signees (like Ben Gamel) taking playing time from these guys.  
• Develop Cody Morris, Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis as starting pitchers only.  In a normal season you want to give the team flexibilty to use these guys as relievers and I truly believe their future is better in the bullpen than as starters.  But, right now, in an assessment year, we have to determine is they are truly never going to be starters in the majors.
• Start the season with Myles Straw as our CFer.  I know everyone hates on Straw right now but you have to give him at least 2 months to see if what they told him at the end of the season has lit a fire under him or if he is just not good enough to play CF in the majors, offesnively that is.  I mean, his bunting went from non-existent to passable this year.  Maybe he now has the message that his hitting needs to get way better, too.  

A rebuild means you get rid of most of your veterans.  Besides Laureano, we don't have any veterans besides Beiber and Bethancourt, both of whom are needed now.  So we aren't rebuilding.

A re-tool means that you are going to spend financial or trade capital to bring in veterans to shore up areas you are weak in.  However, you have to have all your other pieces in place and be solid.  Right now we are missing CF, RF and are unsure about SS, DH and in the bullpen. Both of the above paths are not minimalistic and both require having a solid foundation to build upon.  You can't go cheap, signing lifer AAAA players like Gamel, Rivas and Oller who you hope will suddenly, in their late 20s or 30s, become above-average starters.  You have to spend big bucks to sign FAs (something that the DFA of Quantrill SHOULD signal is not happening) or trade lots of prospect capital to find really good veterans to make the re-tool happen.  Given that we have screwed the pooch by not using, misusing or improperly using our ML-ready prospects, they won't have enough value to trade and, even if we had enough capital, we do not have a complete infrastructure that would allow us to assume that re-tooling additions will make us good enough to compete.

So we are left with an assessment year.  We have oodles of prospects to sort out and positions to lock down.  We need to limit our holes to as few as possible so we can apply resources next winter to filling those FEW holes.   We are not there yet.  We need to assess this year.

Let the assessment year begin.  We should know what the first steps are.  That is, the first two bullet points above.  Let's get those done and go from there.  

The future can be bright if we just follow this plan and don't try to be cute and think we know more than the rest of baseball on how to build a champion on a small budget.  

Let the assessment year begin.

Bibee ROY Fallout and Roster Protection Day

Bibee

Good fans, some among the very knowledgeable, getting on Twitter yesterday and then saying "Wait, we don't get a draft pick and Bibee gets a full year of service time if he finishes 1st or 2nd in the ROY voting?"  Like Zach Meisel informs the world.  Problem is I have been saying this for 2 months.  Knowledgeable fans should have known this.  Wouldn't have changed anything but this is what makes guys like Meisel look like experts...when they just state the obvious because no one else is paying attention.

And to clarify some things::

• the Guardians were not trying to be cheap by not rostering Bibee at the beginning of 2023.  We had 5 solid starters and he didn't really have to be rostered until after 2024.  So why start his option clock by rostering him if he wasn't going to stick?
• This 'revelation' about the PPI is no reason to roster Manzardo next opening day.  The odds of him winning the ROY are slim with the competition he has.  At least 3 of the top 10 prospects in baseball could be on AL opening day rosters and if a guy like Yamamoto is in the AL, while he won't be eligible for PPI, he could throw a monkey wrench into the works by being named ROY, screwing every other team who has a qualified ROY candidate.
• Simply, as I have been saying for two months now, this rule needs to be changed.

Rule 5 Protection Day

This day used to scare the crap out of me as I feared we would not protect enough guys.  The last two years have made more comfortable the Guardians have this under control.  Now I am scared that the Guardians will do something stupid (see Tobias Myers, see Juan Brito for Nolan Jones) on this day.  Let's look at some stupid things they might do, given that the 40 man is completely filled:

• DFA or trade Karinchak to clear a roster spot.  James is the whipping boy for fans' frustrations.  Still, look at his stats.  He is not someone you DFA and get, essentially, nothing for him or trade him for peanuts because MLB GMs know he is in the dog house in Cleveland.
• Trade for yet another guy who will not be rostered by one of their competitors.  This includes trading Karinchak
• DFA or trade for little value prospects on the 40 like Noel, Gonzalez, Jonathon Rodriguez to clear roster space for prospect additions while leaving flotsam like Rivas, Kelly and Laureano on the roster
• Make a multiplayer trade where we give up more than we get driven by the need to clear roster space.

Look, the guys we need to protect are Espino, Hankins and Frias.  These are the guys with huge upsides who could be in the majors by opening day 2025.  Relievers like Cade Smith, Misiaszek and Mikolajchake have upsides only as fungible middle relievers in the majors, just like Kelly and Enright last year.  You simply don't protect them when guys like De Los Santos pop up all the time.  The issue is that we never sign any of those guys choosing, isntead, to sign bad MLB free agents in the beginning of March.

So what SHOULD happen today is that we DFA or trade Kelly, Rivas and Laureano and roster Espino, Hankins and Frias.  Then we can approach the off-season by using our prospects on the 40 to get veteran players in here...assuming you think the Manzardo trade signals that our FO have gotten their heads out of their butts and are now making good trades for a change.

If they avoid doing either of those things

Thoughts for the Monday: Changing of the Guard, Decisions Week, ROY Vote Implications, AFL Aftermath, Help in the Outfield, Potpourri

Back in the swing for a Monday morning after a weekend of fun. 

Stephan Vogt

In all the excitement about our new manager here are some things people should not forget:

• The Guardians could not get the experienced manager of the type they wanted.
• They had their pick of guys with no ML managerial experience and picked who they wanted.  It was their plan to begin with and they followed through.
• It is very likely that he will lose some games for us from inexperience.  He is going to have to grow into the position.  Francona did it so effortlessly although he said how much effort it really took.  Fans need to prepare for this being a bumpy road and to give the guy a chance to grow into the job.  Realize that with a rookie manager like Vogt at the helm in the last 11 years we might had only had 4 winning seasons out of 11 instead of 9.  That stark reality it what we may face at the beginning of his tenure.  Maybe not but it is possible, to be sure.
• Vogt will need strong coaches to help him.  He has to know where to find them and he has to embrace not just bringing in his buddies or people he will be comfortable with.  That is the knee jerk situation, not bringing in the best but, rather, bringing in people you know.  It looks like he will have to find
• Third base/infield coach
• Bullpen coach
• Bench coach
• Hitting coach (my bias is showing through here.
• There are areas that he can be a positive influence right away
• He can bring the energy - Francona was beat up both mentally and physically.  
• He can more fully embrace analytics.  Not saying he will or that he fully knows how to use them but at least he is young enough to.
• He, along with his next replay coordinator, can improve over the last couple of years.

Steven Voght - Old Cronies Edition

So far the Guardians have made 3 off-season acquisitions

• Picked up Christian Bethancourt on waivers
• Signed Adam Oller to a minor league contract
• Picked up Alfonso Rivas on waivers

You could speculate that Bethancourt and Oller were pickups suggested or approved by Vogt as he had overap with each of them.  It is harder to find the direct connection between Rivas and Vogt, especially when Rivas was picked up before Vogt was officially offered the job.  

Still, it would be great if Vogt could have a positve impact on obtaining guys who really made a difference.  While Bethancourt is, on paper, a good pickup (but we thought the same thing about Zunino, right?) he was DFA'd by Tampa Bay when it wasn't necessary, likely because they felt that his arbitration salary was not equal to his value.  Oller being signed now if ominous because you are generally not signing free agents to minor league contracts this early unless the guy is someone who is likely to pitch on your team next year (guys with lifetime 10+ ERAs don't fall in that category).

So, Steven, use your former relationships to help this team build its roster next year and to trade for appropriate ML players and prospects.   So far the results have been OK to poor.  We are the Guardians with a questionable FO.  We need better than that.

Rookie of the Year Vote Implications

This will be a short section.  The truth about this year is:

• The Guardians will receive nothing if Tanner Bibee wins ROY this week.  He won't as that award will go to Gunnar Henderson.  The reason is that the Guardians did not bring him up in time to qualify for the Prospect Promotion Incentive.  He needed to be on the the roster by April 14th.  He wasn't added to the roster until April 28th.  I don't believe even if he was on the roster by the 14th if we would have qualified for the PPI as he wasn't ranked in the top 100 prospects.
• As I have previously posted, if, as expected, he finishes 2nd in the voting then Bibee will earn a full year of service time meaning, if he is not demoted to the minors any time in the future.  This is a negative for the Guardians as it means he would be a FA one year earlier than if he finished 3rd or lower in the voting.  

So, for the Guardians, the only good outcome this week is for Bibee to finish 3rd.  For Bibee, finishing 1st or 2nd helps him immensely.

This is one thing about the PPI that I hate.  Why does a player have to be in the top 100 to qualify for the PPI?  Bibee would have been eliminated before he even through a pitch even if he had been on the opening day roster.  For lower rated prospects there is the stick (loss of one year of control) and no carrot (draft choice compensation).  That is totally unfair to small market teams who likely will have better prospects due to worse records, especially if their strength is prospect development.  

So, look for Bibee to finish 2nd and for the Guardians to be screwed by the new PPI system.

Decisions Week

On Wednesday (roster freeze ahead of Rule 5 draft) and Friday (non-tender of ML players, especially arbitration-eligible players) decisions will have to be made.  

These decisions can be short-sighted (DFAing guys like Kyle Nelson to clear a roster spot) or long-term (adding all those prospects to the 40-man in 2021).  BTW, both of these decisions were in the same 2021 roster freeze.

So I am approaching these two dates with trepidation for the following reasons:

• We have a currently full 40 man roster
• We have guys (Kelly, Rivas) who should be expendable but I am not sure that the FO considers them that way
• We have guys like Gaddis who should be solid end of your 40-man roster guys but may be considered fungible and, therefore, given away for nothing.  Not that I think that highly of Gaddis' ability to be a ML pitcher, but he is a cheap depth guy who we have experience with so, as a AAA option as a reliever or starter, he is perfect for a small market team's end of the 40-man roster..
• We have guys like Gonzalez and Noel who, like Nolan Jones last year, might be undervalued by our FO and given away for less than what they are worth with the same disastrous consequences as what happened with Jones this year.
• We have Laureano who should be DFA'd as he is overpriced and Karinchak who, under no circumstances, be DFA'd or traded for little value to avoid going to arbitration with him.  The former is expendable while the latter is likely an important part of our bullpen who cannot be replaced for the cost of his arbitration settlement.
• We have multiple prospects who need to be rostered, starting with Daniel Espino, Ethan Hankins, Dayan Frias and others.  However, each of these prospects has significant warts that I could see the FO not protecting ANY of them or maybe just protecting Espino due to his prospect status while gambling that all the other guys will not be LOST FOR GOOD in the ML Rule 5 draft system.

After the roster freezes of 2021 and 2022 I thought I had a good feeling about how the FO handles these things but now I am really worried as there is no way Kelly or Rivas should be on the roster after Wednesday and, frankly, we have so many OF prospects with higher upsides than Laureano I can't see him being here past Wednesday as I think we need his roster spot.   

And this is just the beginning.  You still have the roster changes that occur after the Rule 5 where guys like Benson are given away for nothing just to clear roster spots for FA signings or trades where we obtain ML players for non-rostered prospects.

AFL Aftermath

Team Finish

Second only to having the best spring training record in baseball for being a meaningless team accomplishment is winning the AFL championship.  Look, all these guys, I am sure, have been trained that winning (in terms of team over individual) is the goal.  It builds selflessness and teamwork over me-first selfishness.  

I get that.

Still, you put a bunch of guys from different organizations for a month and celebrate because your all-star team beat someone else's.  Just really not important...as written by a guy whose team lost in the finals, LOL.

But let's look at the individual performances, including the playoffs.

Webb 

Completed his AFL season going 4 scoreless innings on Tuesday.  He looked poised and got it done without striking out everybody.  He gave up two hits (one line drive, one seeing eye ground ball) and walked 3 (all on 3-2 counts).  He looks like a keeper and might even make it the majors by the beginning of 2025.

Manzardo and DeLauter

The playoffs were cool for each of them and built on their AFL regular season stats but truth be told, they both need more seasoning before theyare ready to be important contributors in the majors.  Whether that is 2 months or 2 years is not know yet.  Still, they both look like bona fide major leaguers in the future.  Whether they will just be solid regulars or more is to be seen.  But I think we have turned the page on them being Joe Charboneau-type flash-in-the-pans, IMHO.

Hanner, Carver, Cairo, Sabrowski

As I said two weeks ago, these guys have played well enough to be guaranteed a spot in the Guardians farm system next year.  None of them really enhanced their status to be considered for a 40-man roster spot but, still, they have shown that there might be something there, especially with Carver and Hanner.  Truth be told, I wouldn't put Hanner, Cairo or Sabrowski on the Columbus Reserve list (Carver isn't Rule 5-eligible yet), so each of those 3 might be lost in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft.  I just see too many other prospects, inlcuding A ball prospects like Antunez, who aren't good enough to be rostered yet but who you want ont he Columbus reserve list so they would have to be selected in the ML Rule 5 where they have to be kept on the ML roster next season.  If they are NOT on the Columbus reserve list they can be selected in the minor league Rule 5 (like Hanner was last year), and not have to be returned if drafted in that phase.

Help in the Outfield

At the moment, the Guardians' X, blog and website gurus are proposing all kinds of FA signings and trades to help us gett more OF production in the majors.  The issues I see are

• Guys are being suggested who are only short term (1-2 year) rentals
• Guys are being suggested are not positional fits (mostly LFers (Arozerena, for example) or sub-par (defensively) RFers or, and this is the worst, firstbaseman or DHs who are trying to be sold as outfielders (Hoskins, Soler)
• Most people are not addressing replacing Straw EXCEPT by moving 2-time Gold Glover Steven Kwan from LF to CF, likely really making the whole outfield defense worse.

The names that make the most sense to me are:

• Fernando Tatis, Jr.  The problems with him are his huge contract, his maturity issues and the fact that his stature is superhero-like in San Diego.  And that doesn't even include the cost of acquiring him.
• Luis Robert Jr.  The main problem with him is would the White Sox trade him and, if so, would they trade him in the division?  

Both these guys instantly make our offense better while not hurting our defense and Robert replaces Straw, immediately making the need for a veteran RF power hitter less necessary, allowing us to maybe give a LH/RH platoon with Brennan and one of Gonzo/JRod/Noel.

The next tier would be controllable guys who have ML or significant AAA experience in RF, like Jordan Walker.

I think the key here is do not try to fit a square peg in a round hole.  If you do you will just be creating one or, in the worst case, multiple problems just to try to address our RF problem.

I don't know what the answer is but I, like many others, would like they to get Robert or Tatis and would be OK with a guy like Walker (albeit not for a HUGE price).  Many of the other guys are analytics moves and, after last year (or even the last 3 years), I don't trust the Guardians to spend money or trade assets on veterans.  

Potpourri

• Not sure I like the Albernaz signing.  Words spoken so far make it sound like he will be a FO spy which might undermine Vogt's ability or mean the FO is hedging their bets that Vogt can be more than a game/locker room manager.  And, even at that, can he handle the complex issues that come with dealing with drama like what happened to Francona after the deadline purge.  On the plus side, maybe having Albernaz in this job will obviate the need for brining in overvalued veterans players who cost us too much in prospects/money.
• Reading about Jose Tena and seeing how he is doing in winter ball I like him more and more.  He seems, unlike Rocchio, Freeman, Martinez or Arias, to be on the steep portion of his learning curve.  To me, however, that means that he should be our primary trading chip if we have to give up a MIF prospect in a trade this winter.   The other 4 really have been devalued by how they were used in 2023.  Trading your prospects when they are at their highest value (which Tena is right now) is better than trading prospects when they are devalued.  Besides, in the end, I don't see Tena having upside greater than the other 4, assuming all 5 were given a long-term chance by a rebuilding franchise.

Thoughts For A Saturday

 1. Jonathon Rodriguez Rostering

Thank you!  The only burning question is why can't the Guardians develop power hitters to shore up their weaknesses (generally high K rates, not using the whole field) while enhancing their strengths.  Reyes, Bradley and now, Gonzalez, Noel and Rodriguez, not to mention Jones, Benson, Yandy Diaz, Yainer Diaz, the list goes on.  The organization needs to do better as, because of their lack of development of power hitters, they will now be trading prospects this winter or paying a lot in free agency to get what they need.

2. Alfonso Rivas...WTF?

So, the first move of the off-season was to pick up Rivas on waivers.  The issue with this guy are:

• He was waived by the Pirates, which generally means he is not a very good player, especially when waived at this time of the year.  
• He is 27 years old and has never had success in the majors
• He hits LF and is primarily a first baseman
• As he is a waiver claim, he cost us $50,000
• We need roster space to add prospects by Nov. 15th to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.
• This was their first move of the off-season, essentially setting the tone for their off-season making this a really bad PR move
• No one, and I repeat, NO ONE, understands this move and essentially EVERY serious Cleveland baseball fan is rolling their eyes at this acquisition and I can tell you that essentially NONE of those fans even realized that the waiver claim cost us $50,000.  

This is not a good first move of the off-season.  It smacks as if someone in the organization in power wanted this guy.  It has been suggested that maybe the new manager has been identified and he said he wanted this guy.  If so, you really have to question that managerial choice.  Rivas is the kind of AAAA player who gets a minor league deal at the beginning of March as an organizational filler.

3. Lack of Catching Prospects in the Organization

A recent listing of the players in the Guardians' organization who are Rule 5-eligible showed included 11 catchers.  Only one of those, Bryan Lavastida, is as this point even a borderline prospect.  A futher look through the farm system shows that the only catching prospects are international signings who were at Lynchburg, ACL and DSL teams.  

There is literally a lack of catching prospects in this organization and much of that comes from not prioritizing catching prospects in the draft.  We have umpteen MIF prospects and umpteen OF prospects and umpteen pitching prospects but no catching prospects.

Note that in my mock draft for 2022 I prioritized college catchers and would have selected Daniel Susac over Chase DeLauter and Dominic Keegan over Joe Lampe.   In each case we would have gotten a quality prospect.

Susac, known as an excellent defender, hit .300 between A+ and AA this year with an OPS of .793

Keegan, more of an offensive catcher, profiles a lot like David Fry as he has a background as a position player.  He played overage in A ball and at league-average age in A+ ball this year and had on OPS of .852.  He is currently tearing up the Arizona Fall League with an OPS of 1.079 which ranks 5th in the league.  Note that unlike 2023 overdraft Cooper Ingle, Keegan was actually a very highly rated prospect at draft time and drafting him in the 3rd round would have been at the time and continues to appear to be really good value at that slot, not just as a catcher but as an excellent available and signable player in the draft at that point.

In hindsight if they had drafted Susac and Keegan and kept Nolan Jones, this organization would be in better shape, catching-wise and actually OF-wise then it is now.

4. AFL Homerun Derby and All-Star Game

Tonight is the HR Derby in the AFL and tomorrow is the annual AFL all-star game.  It is good that the Guardians have 3 of their representatves (Manzardo, DeLauter and Webb).  None of them are having great statistical AFL seasons.  Each has had their moments.  Webb leads the AFL in strikeouts.  Manzardo has had essentially 5 tape measure HRs and DeLauter is tied for the lead league in RBIs and has almost as many XBH as he has Ks and a 13/9 BB/K ratio.  Stats in the desert don't mean a lot but these are stats that given some hope for the future that each of these guys could be a bright piece of the Guardians' feature for the next 6-7 years.

5. More AFL

Christian Cario, Bradley Hanner, Ross Carver and Eric Sabrowski are all putting in the work in the AFL although they are not really priority prospects.  They have given themselves a chance to have priority positions in the Guardians' minor leagues next year.  

Ryan Webb - A Cautionary Tale

 All us prospect geeks are pumped over Webb's performance in the AFl this year.  He leads the league in strikeouts and has had two outings where he gave up only 1 hit in 4.1 innings.  In his outing yesterday he threw 4 shutout, hitless innings before he gave up an infield hit and a walk in the 5th, both runners being allowed to score by the pitcher who replaced him.  

My guess is that he has one more start this fall and, given that, let's look at how his strikeout totals compare with past participants in the AFL looking back to 2005.

49 - Tommy Hansen - 2008

40 - Miguel De Los Santos - 2011

39 - Glenn Perkins - 2005

38 - Phil Hughes - 2008

36 - Forrest Whitley - 2018

36 - Scott Mathieson - 2005

35 - Jerad Weaver - 2005

34 - Connor Thomas - 2022

33 - Boone Whiting -2012

33 - Sean Manea - 2015

33 - Wilie Eyres - 2008

33 - Alex Hinshaw - 2008

33 - Austin Gomber - 2016

33 - Ryan Webb - 2023

The cautionary tale here is that high strikeout totals in the AFL have very little to do with future success.  Just look at Connor Thomas from St. Louis, last year's K leader in the AFL.  He also had only 5 walks.  On the strength of his pedigree (5th round college pick) and his AFL showing he started the year as the Cardinals 19th ranked prospect.  He has now fallen out of their top 30 entirely after having a mediocre year in his 3rd season in AAA.   His stuff seems to be similar to that of Webb and his draft pedigree was similar, as well.  In addition you could look at Evan Reifert who had 25 Ks in the 2022 AFL season in 11.2 innings with only 4 BB but, like Thomas, is not one of the top 30 prospects in his organization in 2023.   Looking at the rest of list some of the guys became good ML pitchers and others did not.   Time will tell with Webb but the Guardians are good at developing pitchers and if his 91-92 FB average could get bumped up to 93 mph touching 94, I think we could be looking at the next Aaron Civale.

Wednesday Odds and Ends

1. The 2022 Draft A Year Later

Everyone should know by now that I think the 2022 draft stunk and that the Guardians left the best talent on the board with almost all of the picks they made in the firs 5 rounds, at least.  Here is a link      ( http://ciperspective.blogspot.com/2022/07/day-2-summary-and-overall-thoughts-of.html ) to the July 18, 2022 post I made with the my first 5 picks in that draft compared to what the Guardians did:  A year later after the first full season for each of those draft picks here is a side-by-side comparison of those selections.

Round 1:

Guardians: Chase DeLauter (currently  #85 prospect in all of baseball)

My mock draft: Daniel Susac (currently the #4 prospect in the Oakland As system)

Round 1C

Guardians: Justin Campbell (currently the #23 prospect in Cleveland's system; out with an injury all year)

My mock draft: Cayden Wallace (currently the #2 prospect in the Royals system)

Round 2

Guardians: Parker Messick (currently the #17 prospect in the Guardians system)

My mock draft: Carson Whisenhut (#70 overall prospect in baseball, #3 in Giants system)

Round 3

Guardians: Joe Lampe (not listed in the Guardians top 30 prospects, spent all year in A+ ball)

My mock draft: Dominic Keegan (#9 prospect for Tampa Bay.  Currently hitting .410 with an OPS of 1.200 in the AFL playing for the same team as Manzardo and DeLauter are playing for).  And Keegan is a catcher.

Round 4

Guardians: Nate Furman (not listed in Guardians top 30 prospects, spent most of the year in A ball)

My mock draft: Luke Gold (currently #27 prospect for Detroit, split time between A and A+)

Round 5

Guardians: Guy Lipscomb (not listed in Guardians top 30 prospects, spent all year in A ball)

My mock draft: Noah Dean (not listed in Boston's top 30 prospects, hurt most of the year)

This is not to point out how I am better than the Guardians.  It is only to point out what I considered our needs were: power hitters, top catching prospects, pitching prospects compared to what the Guardians thought our needs were: LH hitting slap hitters with good batting eyes and pitchability college pitchers.  My draft selections focused on what I thought our needs were at the same time not sacrificing quality.  Cleveland's picks focused on what they thought was important while sacrificing quality on our 2nd through 5th round picks, at least, and the jury is still out on DeLauter and on Campbell due to injury.

We could have done so much better in the 2022 draft and we will be paying for the clear mistakes we made in these two drafts for the next 5-10 years.

2. The Managerial Search Continues with a Caution from Me

I don't believe Craig Counsell will end up as Cleveland's manager.

I think the Guardians were just interviewing Counsell and he accepted the interview just as due diligence.

I also think the Cleveland interview and offer will just serve to drive up the value of Counsell's eventual salary.

His choices are the best available managerial position in baseball (Houston), his hometown team (Milwaukee), an opportunity where the owner spends like crazy to have a winner (NYM) and Cleveland.  

Counsell isn't coming here and the longer we wait and string along our #2 choice the more likely we lose that guy to another club or risk alienating him coming in the door.

This is a game of musical chairs and injecting Counsell into this mix just muddied the waters considerably.

That being said, I don't trust that the Guardians will pick the right guy.  Francona fell into their laps before but the experienced managers who would fit here (Lovullo, Cash and Counsell) aren't coming.  So now, for the first time in 11 years, they have to actually take a chance on a guy that nobody knows.  Will they do a good job?  Just look at their player decisions over the past 3+ years and tell me what you think their odds are of doing a good job hiring the right manager.

3. Jonathon Rodriguez Being Rostered Instead of Lost to MiLB Free Agency

Tick.  Tick.  Tick.

4. Ryan Webb

I am pretty sure if he starts on schedule that his next start (Nov. 2nd) will be live streamed by MLB on MLB.com.  This is must see TV if you are a Guardians' prospect geek.

5. Off-season Acquistions the Guardians Need to Make

guys who are on the 40 man roster or would have to be added as they would be Rule 5 eligible are underlined

a. Luis Robert Jr. for Kyle Manzardo, Juan Brito, Joey Cantillo and Ryan Webb

b. Jordan Walker, Tyler O'Neill, Gorden Graceffo and Ivan Herrera for Bieber, Quantrill, Sandlin, Lavastida and Straw.

c. Trade Jose Tena to Arizona for Jorge Barrosa and Brycen Jarvis

d. Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 10 yr, $200 million deal

e. Sign Reynaldo Lopez to a 3 yr, $13 million deal

f. Sign Francisco Mejia to a minor league deal

g. Sign Carlos Carrasco to a minor league deal

h. DFA Laureano and Michael Kelly

i. Add to the roster Jonathon Rodriguez, Ethan Hankins, Daniel Espino 

These moves would immediately add one more player to our 40 man roster than we would lose, essentially making all of them a break even.  This is my ideal off-season although Rodriguez might cost us a draft pick.  The only duplicates we would still have on the roster at that point would be the following:

Starting Pitcher Options (8): Allen, Bibee, Williams, McKenzie, Yamamoto, Graceffo, Carrasco, Gaddis

Outfield Options (10): Kwan, Roberts Jr, Brennan, Walker, O'Neill, Barrosa, Valera, Gonzalez, JRod, Noel

MIF options (5): Gimenez, Freeman, Arias, Martinez, Rocchio

Catching Options (4): Bo Naylor, Herrera, Fry, Mejia

Bullpen Options (14): Clase, Curry, De Los Santos, Hentges, Herrin, Karinchak, Lopez, Morgan, Morris, Stephan, Cade Smith, Jarvis, Hunter Gaddis

So we would have some other trade chips like Brennan, Morgan, Karinchak, Gonzalez, Valera, JRod, Noel and one of Gimenez/Freeman/Arias/Martinez/Rocchio if we need to make a July trade.

Our statting lineup would look something like this:

1. Kwan LF

2. Ramirez 3B

3. Robert CF

4. Josh Naylor 1B

5. O'Neill DH

6. Gimenez 2B

7. Walker RF

8. Bo Naylor C

9. Rocchio or Arias SS (I prefer Rocchio with this lineup setup as he represents a 2nd leadoff man)

The Clock Is Ticking on Jonathon Rodriguez

 Unless there is something that I don't understand, one day after the World Series ends Jonathon Rodriguez becomes a 6 year minor league free agent.  Drafted in 2017 and counting the 2020 season when minor leaguers did not play, Rodriguez has played for the Guardians for 6+ years even though he is only 23 years old (he will turn 24 this week).  

With the World Series now 3-1 in favor of Texas the whole thing could be over on Wednesday night, meaning JRod could be a free agent as early as this Thursday.  

However, for 5 days he can only negotiate with the team he played for this year, so there is that window.

Now, like with Oscar Gonzalez in the winter of 2021-22, the Guardians could sign Rodriguez to a minor league deal during that 5 day period.  They could even sign him after that but risk that he could get an offer from another team to be on their 40-man roster.  

So the Guardians are on the clock.  The game they played with Gonzalez would not have worked if there had been a Rule 5 draft in the winter of 2021.  There will be one this winter so Rodriguez would likely be snapped up in that draft.

So the Guardians are on the clock.  As I see it they have 3 paths:

• They put JRod on the 40 man roster before the end of the WS
• They sign him to a minor league deal and add him to the roster before the roster freeze on Nov. 15th.
• They sign him to a minor league deal but don't add him to the 40 man and hope he makes it through the Rule 5
• They trade him to another team to avoid having to roster him.
• They simply let him become a 6 year free agent and he signs with another team.

The only course that makes sense for me is putting him on the 40-man roster right now.

We are talking about an organizational all-star here, a guy who has is young and at AAA with great power, a great arm and developing plate discipline.  Plus he hits right handed and can play RF.  

He is a legitimate prospect who is probably still underrated by ranking   He is currently rated 24th in our system my MLB Pipeline.  

There is room on the 40-man roster once guys hit free agency after the WS.  Rostering him is a no-brainer but we have seen what our no brain FO has done in the last few years with Junior Caminero, Nolan Jones, Will Benson and others, giving them away for nothing.  Even Oscar Gonzalez could have been lost before his breakout season in 2022 because the Guardians did not roster him.  The only thing that saved him was that there wasn't a Rule 5 draft in 2021.  

So, c'mon Guardians.  Roster this kid.  It is the only choice that makes sense in an organization that has to build from within given its budget.  What's it going to be?  Another stupid move or, like the rostering of prospects in the off-season of 2021, do the right thing.