I Was Thinking About Our Roster...

 ...and I have some concerns.

In the past I have posted about dead space on the roster.  This includes two types of players:

• Players who are injured and won't be able to play on opening day
• Players who have zero chance of impacting the major league team this year.

You need 26 players on your opening day roster.  If the total of the above two categories is even close to 26 AND your 40-man roster is full, then any player you add to the 40 man roster requires removing a player from your 40-man unless:

• A player is taken off the 40 man roster and placed on the 60-day IL.
• A player is traded for the player you are adding to the 40 man roster

If you have an open spot on your 40 man roster (the Guardians roster is now full) you can add an additional player to your roster.  

In the recent past the Guardians have used this spot as a revolving door.  That is, they add a guy who they don't care if they lose to the 40-man to fill a role at the end of the 26-man roster.  Then, when they need a roster space (e.g., when they have used a RP/SP who won't be available for a few games) they can just DFA the player they added to fill the hole, populating that spot by another player who would be useful to the team at that time.  

So why is this important? Not counting their top 9 players, top 5 SP and top 8 relievers, the Guardians used 12 other position players and 15 other pitchers.  So, yes, having open spots on your roster to do this revolving door is crucial as injuries happen.

...and, why do dead spots on your roster hurt?  Because the more dead spots you have on your roster the fewer players you have to choose from without dipping into the AAAA player pool like the Guardians tend to do to fill these gaps.

So let's talk about the dead spots on the roster.  These guys are on the 40 but will not make the 26-man roster on opening day due to injury or just not being ready

• Shane Bieber (injury, out 1/2 the season, 60 day DL candidate)
• Daniel Espino (injury, out half the season and likely not ready for the ML yet, anyway, NOT 60 day DL candidate as it would start his service time clock)
• Sam Hentges (injury, likely out for the entire season, 60 day DL candidate)
• Trevor Stephan (injury, likely out for opening day, likely not 60 day DL candidate)
• David Fry (injury, likely 60 day DL candidate)
• Petey Halpin (not ready for big leagues in 2025)

This means that there are 34 'live' spots on the 40 man roster (4 60-day DL, 2 not ready for ML).  

In addition, the following players on the 40 man cannot be sent to the minors without passing through waivers as they are out of minor league options:

• Gabriel Arias
• Triston McKenzie
• Ben Lively
• Sam Hentges (already out for the season)

So, right now we have more than enough position players, except for catcher, where we have only the 2 who will be on the opening roster (Naylor, Hedges).

As far as pitchers the following guys who are available for the 26 man roster:

8 man relief staff - 10 guys (Aleman, Cecconi, Clase, Enright, Gaddis, Herrin, Sabrowski, Sewald, Smith, Walters)

5 man starting staff - 8 (Allen, Bibee, Cantillo, Lively, McKenzie, Nikhazy, Ortiz, Williams)

As I understand it, players can be placed on the 60 day DL once pitchers and catchers report for spring training in a little over a week.  

Thus we should be able to add guys on major league deals by just placing the above guys on the DL, meaning there still is a chance we could add quality players on major league deals. 

Again, if we do this we should just do this in free agency.  Looking at it that way, here is what I see:

Outfielders: There are ZERO free agent outfielders worth signing.  I would rather go with the kids than any of these guys.

Catchers: Luke Maile and Andrew Kizner appeal to me on minor league deals but I don't think we have room for Jason Stallings or James McCann as I don't see us carrying 3 catchers on our 26

Left handed relief pitchers: Andrew Chapin still stands out as the only guy I would add on a ML deal.  Guys like Genesis Cabrera (and every other LH reliever available in free agency) on a minor league deal makes sense to me.

Starting pitchers: Here's where it gets interesting.  I could easily see us going big in this area, even signing Pivetta (costs us a draft choice), Andrew Heaney or Kyle Gibson here.  I don't see anyone else on a major league deal but pretty much any other available FA SP on a minor league deal works for me.  With McKenzie being out of options, however, I just don't see the value of adding an innings eater at the expense of losing McKenzie to a DFA.

So, while it is the Guardians and they usually shop in the bargain basement, maybe they will take some of their salary savings and bring in a quality starting pitcher.

Again, no trades allowed.  We just traded away two of our best position players.  We shouldn't then go and trade prospects for new position players.  Also, no infielders as we are stocked there and trading for guys only means that prospects don't get a chance which is stupid if you are just trying to replace the production you gave away for almost nothing.

On A Wing And A Prayer

According to the Cambridge Dictionary, the functional definition of 'on a wing and prayer is:

"If you do something on a wing and a prayer, you do it hoping that you will succeed, although you are not prepared enough for it...SMART Vocabulary: related words and phrases. Hoping and hopefulness"

That, in my opinion, is how the Guardians have approached this off-season, on a wing and a prayer.

While I could hypothesize why they are doing what they are doing this off-season, there is no way for me to know if it is related to some or all of:

• analytics that they trust over common sense when applied to the players they have traded away
• financial constraints that are causing them to dump large (and even, where possible, small amounts of salary and spending (Guards Fest))
• a desire to create playing time to finally allow determination whether prospects are true major leaguers or just AAAA players

The Guardians have, in recent history, been a very shrewd and successful organization.  But this year, for whatever reason, they have taken it to a new level, doing things that appear, on the surface, to make the 2025 team weaker while putting more money into the pocket of the owner.

Instead of trying to guess the reasons behind them, let's take a look at the moves from this off-season and how they fit into the above functional definition

• Trading Eli Morgan for a prospect who is 3 years away from the major leagues - The Guardians are counting on mostly or completely untested rookies to give the same or better production as Morgan, while saving probably $400,000 in salary.
• Cancelling Guards Fest 2025 - This is the biggest puzzlement of all their off-season moves.  An event that may cost them $200,000 but brings such good will with fans in the time right before tickets go on sale, this is even hard to understand using the wing-and-a-prayer concept.  I guess they are hoping that they win and so things like this will be forgotten.
• Trading Gimenez and Sandlin to Toronto for Horwitz and Mitchell - The Guardians dumped Gimenez's salary and doubled down on their thoughts about the bullpen by throwing in Sandlin.  They plan to play a rookie at 2B, proposing that Juan Brito can replace Gimenez and give you the same or better overall production even though he is a bad defender and has no speed and, as a rookie, we have no idea will hit even as well as Gimenez.  This is a wing-and-a-prayer trade X2.
• Trading Horwitz for Ortiz, Hartle and Kennedy -On paper, this is a great trade, a Guardians' type trade.  Ortiz is a ML pitcher.  Hartle and Kennedy are good pitching prospects.  The only question about this trade is why Pittsburgh would trade even just Ortiz for Horwitz, who is the classic tweener, bad defense at 2B and not enough power for 1B...and he wasn't even a starter full time in Toronto.  So, while I love this trade, the Guardians are hoping, on a wing and a prayer, that Ortiz is the guy who shut them down last year rather than just a flash in the pan.
• Trading Naylor for Cecconi and a CB B pick. - In the biggest shocker of all this off-season, the Guardians traded their cleanup hitter who, legitimately, is the only guy on their roster who offers protection for Jose Ramirez in their batting order.  They are getting back Cecconi, and his 6+ ERA and a draft pick around #70 in the 2025 draft.  Realizing that if Arizona makes Naylor a QO in the 2025 off-season he will net them a pick around #35 in the 2026 draft, they have to be counting on Naylor being so bad that he won't be made a QO AND be worse than his replacement, Santana (See below).  That still doesn't clear up who will help cleanup and protect Ramirez this year, but I guess that will take care of itself...on a wing and a prayer.  They also have to be thinking that, on a wing and a prayer, that Cecconi can be fixed for the 2025 season and offer Cleveland very good pitching value for this and future seasons.  ANother wing and a prayer trade X2, I think.
• Signing Carlos Santana to a 1 year deal - Continuing with the wing and a prayer theme, the Guardians have to be thinking that Santana can approximate his production in 2024 AND that they can find protection for Ramirez in players on their roster.  This requires a big leap of faith as Santana was 38 last year in his career year and, at that, only hit cleanup a few times without great results, meaning he can't step into the lineup and replace Naylor, even though he will be making more than Naylor did.  So this signing is clearly a wing and a prayer.
• Not signing any other significant free agents - The key here is the word 'significant'.  For example, if they sign a LFer like Hayes or Profar, they have to move Kwan, meaning they are hoping, on a wing and a prayer, that he can handle CF or RF w/o weakening the overall defense, that has been weakened by losing Gimenez.  They might choose to double down on SP which would help the rotation but not the lineup, gambling, on a wing and a prayer, that their pitching would win games that their offense can't, similar to the way it happened early in 2024.  Again, expecting that  to happen 2 years in a row is planning for your season on a wing and a prayer.
• The possibility of making a trade - If trade right now for a platoon advantage you are hoping, on a wing a prayer, that your overall team is stronger than it was last year, even though you lost Gimenez and Naylor or only gained back Santana.  If you trade at the deadline, taking on salary from the savings this winter, you are hoping that your deadline deals work out.  In either case, you are giving up prospects for incremental (now) or short term (deadline) gains.  You are hoping, on a wing and prayer, that those deals are worth the prospects you would have to give up to make those deals. 

So, there you have it.  The Guardians whole off-season is built on a wing and a prayer.  These guys are good at putting a competitive team on the field but, sometimes, it just looks like they are making it harder and harder on themselves so they look like geniuses when they do it AGAIN.  That seems like a very hard way to go...a wing and a prayer way to go.

Thoughts For A Saturday: Roki Sasaki, International Signing Day, Guardians Moves: A Full Couple of Days

 OK, it has been an eventful couple of days in baseball.  So let's unpack:

• The Dodgers signed Sasaki - Maybe their most important signing in the last five years, Sasaki doesn't just give them winning now, he gives them affordable winnings for the next 6 years.  Literally, whoever signed Sasaki knew that they had both star power and team financial flexibility without invoking any deferrals of salary.

• The Guardians signed the players they had been linked to but, so far, no additional prospects, leaving slightly over $2 million left in their bonus pool

• They then traded that $2 million to Toronto along with Myles Straw and $3.75 million.  The Guardians will either get a player to be named later or cash.

These 3 events represented the entirety of the Guardians involvement in the international FA process.  Here is what we know in addition to what I suspect about the above events:

• The Guardians underspent their international pool by $2 million.  For a small market team they should never underspend their international budget or their draft budget.  It is the cheapest way to get quality talent into the organization

• The Guardians did a salary dump with Myles Shaw,  Ths saved them over $10 million over the next 3 years.  

• The Guardians spent $0 of the money they saved on dumping the Gimenez and Straw contracts on Toronto.  This is the most significant point here.  With the trades of Gimenez, Straw, Morgan and Sandlin, we lost a lot of talent without bringing much except for Ortiz back into the organization.  Thus, it would be hard to argue that the Guardians are a better team now than they were at the end of the 2024 regular season.

While people may do a victory dance for dumping Straw's salary, realize that even this move hurt our team next year that these moves are just salary-dumping, cost-saving moves if they don't come with signing a quality FA or 2.

When you look back at this off-season, this team is richer, but weaker.  We still have a ways to get back to where we were, offensively, at the end of 2024, let alone do enough to actually improve this team for 2025.

So do your victory dance.  I won't be.     From the canceling of Guardsfest to the dumping of Straw on Toronto, moves appear to be happening to create a war chest.  But if you don't use that war chest to make your club better, you are just saving money to put in the owner's pocket. 

Happy 2025!

 To everyone, especially those who read this blog, I wish you a safe and happy new year.  I hope that you will enjoy the actual baseball more and stress about little things less.

Dennis

Roki Sasaki and the Roki Sasaki Fallout

 OK, free agents are being signed left and right and a lot of the FA SP are off the board already.  So you know what that means?

IT'S ROKI SASAKI TIME

So, where does that leave the Guardians?  Let's talk some background first:

• Sasaki, being only 23, will be treated like the 16 year old international free agents.
• Any loophole, over or under the table, that you might think of that could give more affluent franchises the advantage, MLB has language in its rules that closes that possibility. 
• Chiba, his present team, will receive a posting fee of 25% of his eventual bonus 
• The Guardians' pool for international FAs is $6,908,600.  8 teams have $7,555,500 (A's, Reds, Tigers, Twins, Marlins, Brewers, Mariners, Rays).  All the rest have the same or less than the Guardians.
• Teams can start signing international free agents on Jan. 15th and AFTER THAT DATE can trade for more international bonus pool money, in increments up to $250,000 and can increase their international bonus pool by up to 50% (some sources say 60%).  So, for example, if the Guardians wanted to trade players for international pool money, they could, theoretically, increase their bonus pool to $10,362,900 but that would have to involve 14 trades!  Just to get to equal footing with the top tier of teams who have the $7,555,500 bonus allotment this year, they would have to make 3 trades where they acquired the $250,000 max per trade.
• As a final way to avoid any funny business, MLB will simply not approve any signing that exceeds the bonus pool of a team.
• Sasaki has set January 25th as when he will make his decision, strategically giving teams a chance to increase their bonus pool for him by making trades to acquire money after January 15th.  
• International signings of $10,000 or less do not count against a team's bonus pool.  Those signings above $10,000 all count against a team's pool.  Teams, supposedly, have deals in place with players way ahead of the signing period, including bonus amounts. 
• The information I have read shows that the Guardians, who are linked to 25 players for the upcoming signing period, have committed to the following bonuses.
• Hiverson Lopez - $900,000
• Heins Brito - $800,000
• In the 2024 signing period they used all but roughly $400,000 of their bonus pool and traded most of the rest of it away during the season.  So, even though we only see $1.7 million committed so far, there could be a lot more in bits and pieces that could add up to closer to their current pool of close to $7 million

So, that is where we stand right now.  Let's talk about things that MIGHT happen and signs that we should be watching for as we go over the next 3 weeks:

1. Teams might hold off on signing their other international free agents if they think they have a good chance to sign Sasaki
2. Teams may start trading away players for international bonus pool money.  Any trade made before January 15th can't include 2025 international bonus money.
3. You could see something rarely seen in international signing periods: players could jump from the team they were supposed to sign with to another team if the team they were supposed to sign with is delaying their signing or asking them to take less money so they can save money to sign Sasaki.

This entire process is very rare.  For people who follow these international signings closely they will likely see things they may never have seen.

It will be interesting...more so if the Guardians sign Sasaki.

For me, I am torn.  The Guardians have made promises to these kids about signing them and about the bonus amounts they will be given.  Ethics would say stick to those promises.  However, very few, if any, of these kids will even make the majors.  So sign 24 players who are 16 years old or one player who is a stud pitcher who is ML ready and has ace potential and, either not sign the kids or stiff them on their bonuses.  

2025 Roster - What Makes Sense and What Doesn't

 OK, it's the hot stove.  Fans of the Guardians love to project lineups and rosters.  So let's do the same. Here are some ground rules I will use in mine.

• No free agent signings that only provide likely or possible incremental improvement over internal options. The trades they made so far made this team anywhere from incrementally to somewhat weaker than last year.  You don't get to spend precious dollars just to recoup those losses, especially with the meager returns from those trades.
• No trades to bring in veterans. Same philosophy.  You lost talent and you don't get to trade prospects to get talent back.
• No moves that bring in platoon players.   You're roster has 13 position players.  You have used up 10 with your 9 starters and Hedges.  There is no room to waste a roster spot on a half-time (or less) player.  Utility players are the way to go for those last 3 spots UNLESS you sign one full-time RFer.  
• No relief pitchers on major league deals.  Hey, bring in a few relief pitchers who are as quality if you can get them on minor league deals.  But you just traded away, for very little return, 2 solid middle relievers who weren't going to cost you a lot.  As I said above you just can't double back and spend money on more expensive relievers.  We tried that with Barlow.  How did that work?
• No starting pitcher a major league deal who is worse than your current #2 starter. Look, you always need more pitching.  But this proviso says go big or go home.  You have enough warm bodies already.  Maybe Quantrill or Carrasco or Lorenzen on a minor league deal.
• We need a star - Look, we need someone to hit cleanup who is GOOD at hitting cleanup.  Santana is a #6 hitter at this point of his career.  Lane Thomas is exposed at 4 or 5. Manzardo and Noel are essentially rookies and rookies don't hit 4th because they can't be expected to put fear into the hearts of pitchers.  Therefore, they are no protection for Jose. Santander is a switch hitter, he hit cleanup all last year and he is a RFer.  Everything we need.  And he makes our lineup.  No other FA outfielders are anything more than trying to fit a square peg in a round hole or as a platoon or incremental improvement.  Santander is it.  

So, with those provisos, I have looked at all the prominent and less prominent and less prominent options and here is what I see the lineup and 26-man roster looking like in 2025.

Lineup:

1. Kwan LF

2. Brito 2B

3. Ramirez 3B

4. Santander RF

5. Manzardo DH

6. Santana 1B

7. Thomas CF

8. Naylor C

9. Rocchio SS

Bench:

Hedges - C

Freeman (likely) or Arias - Utility IFer - backup middle infielder and utility player

Noel (likely) or Brennan - Extra OFer - Prioritize power and versatility over experience.  Probably Fry once he is healthy

Angel Martinez (likely) or Schneeman - Utility IF/OF - Switch hitter over LHH.  

Rotation:

1. Bibee

2. Ortiz

3. Williams

4. Lively

5. McKenzie

Bullpen:

1. Clase

2. Smith

3. Gaddis

4. Herrin

5. Sabrowski

6. Walters

7. Avila

8. Aleman (Stephan when he is healthy)

Summary

So there you have it.  One FA signing makes this lineup better.  You are still banking on Brito being better than Gimenez, overall, and Santana being as good as Naylor with both of the replacement (Brito, Santana) maybe fitting in better and accepting lesser roles than Naylor and Gimenez would have been.  

Thoughts For A Snowless Christmas Eve

 When you live where I live, cloudy and below average temperatures are about as close as you get to a white Christmas.  

That being said, the prevailing weather still gives me a chance to look outside and reflect on what has transpired so far in the Guardians' off-season...and to look ahead at what this SHOULD mean for the rest of the off-season.

Guardsfest

The off-season started with the Guardians cancelling the next 2 winter festivals, claiming that it is what fans said they wanted.  That, of course, is not true and it came to light that the move was totally based on them trying to save money.   That was not a good way to start the off-season if you were a Guards fan who realized how much extra money the team made this year from increased attendance and making it to the ALCS.

Trading Eli Morgan

While this wasn't a huge move, it signaled that management thought we had an excess of relievers and, so, they were comfortable with dumping Morgan as they felt we had a lot of depth in the reliever core AND WILL NOT NEED TO TRADE FOR RELIEF PITCHERS.  This was re-emphasized by the fact that our return from this trade was an outfielder who was 3-5 years away from playing in the majors, if he ever makes it at all.  

Rule 5 Draft

I mention this so I can once again say that I will never, ever doubt the FO in who they choose to protect or not protect in the Rule 5.  Frankly, there was no way this could have gone better for Cleveland.

Trading Gimenez and Sandlin to Toronto

The reason for this trade was a salary dump.  Looking at the trade we also had to throw in Nick Sandlin to dump the remaining 5 years of Gimenez's salary, indicating that we were very motivated to dump money and, once again, signaling that the FO thinks we have more than enough RH ML relief pitchers.  The return on this trade was a 27-year old 1B/2B with one real season of ML experience and a minor league OFer likely of the same pedigree and ability as Joe Lampe.   Clearly, the return for Gimenez and Sandlin were not important and the FO, by their own admission, believes that our internal options can provide as much value, or more, than Gimenez.

Trading Horwitz for Ortiz and Two Pitching Prospects

Horwitz, the centerpiece of the trade that cost us Gimenez and Sandlin, was traded to Pittsburgh for a ML SP, Luis Ortiz and two decent pitching prospects.  This, on the surface, looks like an incredibly good deal for Cleveland.  The two pitching prospects they received have lots of control left before they reach Rule 5 eligibility and Ortiz had a really good year in 2024, including a dominant start against Cleveland.  Still, you have to wonder how Horwitz could be worth this much.  When I look at this trade I am waiting for the other shoe to drop.  No way is Pittsburgh that stupid to give up a guy like Ortiz for Horwitz, let alone two pitching prospects.  The peripherals surrounding Ortiz's 2024 season suggest he is set for a downturn in 2025.  This matches the fact that he was included as one of three pieces for Horwitz.  

Trading Josh Naylor and signing Carlos Santana

As I have said previously, trading Josh Naylor is NOT the problem.  Clearly everything poionted to them dumping him.  The issue was, as with the Cubs and Toronto trades, was how the return on those trades was going to help the Guardians in 2025.  As with both the Gimenez and Morgan trades, that return is non-helpful to 2025.  The acquisition of Santana ONLY makes sense if we can fill other needs on our roster.  We needed more starting pitching who could immediately improve our rotation in 2025.  We needed a corner outfielder with power.  We needed a quality LH reliever.  None of those needs were addressed in ANY of these three trades.  Hey, signing Santana as a replacement for Naylor is not the issue.  It is the combination of the return for Naylor PLUS Santana that has to be a win for Cleveland in 2025.  Sadly, it is not even close, leaving the FO supporters on the internet grasping for indications on how Slade Cecconi is really better than his 6.66 ERA in 2024 would indicate.  Well, maybe they can make him better but let's face it.  There is little or no chance that Cecconi was highly valued by Arizona and there is little to no chance that he will be able to fix whatever is mechanically wrong with him by 2025 opening day, meaning that his use in the majors at that moment will likely lead to mostly losses where he buries his team so badly that they will never be able to score enough runs to offset his bad performance.  And our offense is hurt by substituting Santana for Naylor.  How much is a question.  Clearly the FO believes that Santana's overall game is = or > Naylor's in 2025 as the return on this deal actually did nothing to help the team in 2025 IF Santana, at 39 years old, has a downturn in his performance in 2025.

Summary

Hey, this off-season can still be saved if we sign Anthony Santander and Roki Sasaki.  But right now our team is weaker than it was at the end of the 2024 season.  Also, if we thought that it was a good idea to trade away position players with good resumes for essentially nothing, there should be ZERO need to trade valuable prospect assets to backfill positions you just vacated or failed to fill when you traded away the players you have this off-season.  So, to me, the only path left is free agency.  The Guardians have to open their wallets and sign quality hitters and maybe a quality SP.  They need to do this without having to dump other salaries. 

This fanbase and the players on this team deserve the best effort possible by management to make this a competitive team. So far this off-season, that has not happened.

I am waiting for the other shoe to drop and, unlike to this point in the off-season, it should clearly be a good next move instead of a continued series of contradictory, non-sensical movess.  

We deseerve better than that.