Besides no fans, what will baseball look like if we play this year?

Thinking about this last night.

First, prayers to all those being impacted by COVID-19.

As far as baseball goes here are some thoughts and questions:

•  How do you handle the injury list? The average length of time to recovery for COVID-19 is 2 weeks for mild  and 3-6 weeks for severe cases.   Adding 72 hours to the end of the disease per CDC and that means that the player would not be able to play baseball for 17-45 days.  The rules would have to allow for a lot more non-baseball injuries and not force all those people to the 60-day DL.  
• There might be wholesale changes in a roster if a hotspot occurred.   As has been postulated, you would need AT LEAST a 37 player roster and maybe up to 60 players assuming that you could have anywhere from 50-100% of your roster having COVID-19 during an outbreak.  That doesn't even injuries and other forms of leave away from baseball.
• Bench personnel might be required to wear masks all the time and what has become a tradition (pitchers and catchers holding their gloves over their mouths so they can't be lipread, might be mandatory.  
• Baseball, itself, has to remain somewhat normal.   For example, are we going to require homeplate umpires and catchers to wear shields over their facemasks?  What about batters using helmets similar to what they use in little league, with a face shield? 
• Will pitchers be able to go to their mouths at all?
•  Will batters, catchers, etc. be able to spit?  Can you spit out the sunflower shells?  Can there be communal pin tar?  Will each pitcher have his own rosin bag?
• Will teams have the handshake/high 5 lines after games?

NOTE: I guess a lot of this will come from the continuous COVID-19 testing that will have to be done so maybe the last three points will be non-issues.  Still tests aren't perfect and there is some thought that you can be infected before the test will show you are infected so who knows.

• How will watch parties be handled if no fans can't go to games?  
• None of this even covers whether baseball-related injuries will be greater this year because of the change to the playing season.

In any case, with or without fans, if the game can be played safely, it would be great to see baseball again.

Stay safe out there

Just a note to wish all of you the best (especially you Indians fans out there).   Please try to stay safe!   Help and pray for each other and do your best to have good personal hygiene and germ control.   If you know someone who is elderly or has underlying respiratory issues, please stay in contact with them as this virus is especially hard on and dangerous for them.

May God bless all of you!

Hey Dodgers, shut the f--k up!

At some point, you have to just tell the other guy to shut up.

The Dodgers want Lindor but don't want to give up Lux.   I cannot believe the fans of some teams, or the teams themselves.   They want to go for the brass ring but overvalue their own prospects and want to get a star like Lindor on the cheap.

Unbelievable.  

Gavin Lux was the #2 prospect in baseball last year.  Yeah, yeah, yeah.   So the f--k what?  Let's take a look at who the #2 prospect in baseball was for each year for the years 2009-2016, cutting it off at that point as we have gotten a good look at what these guys actually developed into.:

2009 - Matt Weiters
2010 - Jason Heyward
2011 - Mike Trout
2012 - Matt Moore
2013 - Jurickson Profar
2014 - Xander Bogaerts
2015 - Byron Buxton
2016 - Byron Buxton

So one guy is actually in the conversation with the talent of Lindor and that is Trout.   Bogaerts is OK but the rest of the #2 prospects in those years are not even close to the value that Lindor has.

So what's my point?  Prospects are just that.   They are prospects.   You can't have it both ways, or at least I hope the Indians don't let you.   You have a great player like Lindor who can potentially give you a WS championship when added to what you have now and all we want is a prospect who may or may ever become great in a few years.  

The arrogance of these people thinking they can cheat the Indians and give us their scraps hoping that because we are stupid we will take it and they can laugh their butts off for years about how they fleeced us.   As I said previously, trading Lindor is essentially throwing in the towel for the Indians UNLESS we get a major league talent back AT THE SAME POSITION.   That is Gavin Lux and Dustin May comes too.   Look, you already have Corey Seager to either trade or move to second base, making that position stronger.   Thus your major league team gets stronger even beyond Lindor since Seager has value beyond the current value of Lux or May.   What we get is to keep the outside change of competing this year AND get some chance to win in the future.

Given the odds above, the Dodgers get the better deal by far.     Maybe down the road the Dodgers, looking at their next two WS trophies, will regret this deal.   However, I don't think they will as prospects are just prospects until they become veterans and, more times than not, things like on the list above happen.

So, Dodgers, fans of the Dodgers, other teams and fans of those teams, put up or shut the F--k up.   I am ready for baseball and tired of teams trying to steal our best player and one of the top 5 PLAYERS in MLB.  Not one of the top 5 prospects but one of the top 5 players in the majors.   If you don't want him then go somewhere else and don't bother the Indians or their fans any more.   And good luck filling that empty spot in your trophy case!

DFAing Haase and other topics

It's past midnight and Dec. 30th and Francisco Lindor is still a Cleveland Indian.  On a northern Ohio sports weekend like we just had, any non-negative news is good news!

A blip on the bad weekend news is that the Indians DFA'd Eric Haase to make room for Cesar Hernandez.   I am sure that there is an analytics guy or team of analytics guys somewhere who are sure this was the best move the Indians could have made.  Not sure if Haase is out of options but, even if he is, this is still not a good move.

•  We have 9 outfielders on our roster.   We may keep 4 or 5.  One, Greg Allen, has become about 4th on the list of CFers, utility outfielders.
•  We have 3 utility infielders.   We probably will keep 1 and be able to send one other to AAA.
•  We have 12 or 15 relievers, depending on how you count Plutko and whether you count Hentges and Mejia of which two of them, Maton and Hoyt, appear to be AAAA lifers.  And that's without the typical January and February minor league free agent reliever signings.

However, at this point, we had only 3 catchers on the roster and exactly zero catching prospects in our system above low class A.   That is ZERO.   

Remember that even if we made a deal with Haase to keep him if he clears waivers he would still need to clear waivers for us to keep him.  Not likely with the perennial state of catching in baseball but I am sure those analytics guys are somewhere smiling, saying it doesn't matter if we don't keep Haase because he is not above replacement level.  I don't buy that because I value prospects and guys brought up in an organization more than the AAAA flavor of the month.  

There is no way that Haase was the fluffiest player on the 40 man, not by a long shot.   But he did have one distinction.   On the roster with 9 outfielders and 15 potential relievers, and 3 utility infielders, Haase was the only guy on the roster who was clearly the "next man up" at his position going into spring training. Doesn't matter that his position was backup to the backup catcher,

there had to be a better guy to DFA.  Had to be.  The roster breakdown shows this.

But, somewhere, analytics guys are giving each other high 5s while watching reruns of Big Bang Theory.   Remember, the word 'analytics' starts with "anal".   Never has that been more clear than this off-season, at least for the Indians in the makeup of the bottom of their 40-man roster.

Time for a football interlude

OK, this is an Indians blog but once in a while we digress into other topics.   Today it is Ohio State football.

Three years ago Ohio State lost to Clemson 31-0.   Ohio State never adjusted to what Clemson was doing against them.   Basically, they could never get anything going.

But this is not that coaching staff.   Unlike essentially every year under Urban Meyer, this coaching staff has made in-game adjustments that have turned the tide in games that we close early.   I love what Urban Meyer did at Ohio State but, in my opinion, the man had an ego that hurt him in these situations.  Apparently Ryan Day's staff doesn't suffer from that from that issue.

That being said, here is what I think needs to happen in this game.   Note that these comments are just from a nervous fan who is just talking to himself, in public, prior to this game.   I am not a football expert by any means.   But, that notwithstanding, here goes:

1. Ohio State needs to move Chase Young around more than it has this year.   Essentially every play.   They have to give Clemson's offense different looks with Young.   He will always have a target on his chest but if the Buckeyes create enough confusion he should get a sack or two and other guys should be free for more sacks.

2. The Buckeyes have to trust their corners in man coverage and blitz more from the safety spot.  Yes this is risky but we have to make Trevor Lawrence uncomfortable.   His recent success is due to his comfort that he is going to have time and not get hit or hurried.

3. We need to adjust our offense to what we have.   We don't want Fields to have to make intricate reads against disguised defenses and hold the ball for a long time as it increases the chance he will get hit and that he will make a bad read or force something.   One way to avoid that is a more Baker Mayfield-like passing game.  Quick throws to slanting receivers and backs isolated against linebackers. There is some question about whether the Buckeye receivers can gain separation from the Clemson cornerbacks.   If we establish the quick passing game that could allow us to gain that separation late in the first half and, occasionally, in the second half.  As funny as it sounds, a quick passing game should open up the run for Fields, too.   If everyone is keyed on the pass he should get a couple of steps before the defense readjusts.

4. If what I think about the coaching staff is accurate we just need to make sure that the game is close at halftime.  I think our coaching staff can adjust better than any coaching staff in the country and I am betting on them to win the second half pretty substantially.

If all these come to pass here is my prediction:

Halftime score: Clemson 21 Ohio State 17

Second half scoring:  Ohio State 21 Clemson 13

Final score: Ohio State 38 Clemson 34

Impact of potential trades

Looking at it logically, I don't see the Indians trading Lindor or Clevinger.  However, if they did trade one of them, let's look at the impact:

The Indians will be competing against the Twins and White Sox for the division this year and maybe next.   Their 'window' is still open.   To keep that window open they, minimally need to keep the lineup and rotation they have now.  Minimally.  Their lineup is not that strong.   Their rotation is not that strong.   Their bullpen is not that certain in terms of performance.  So, even with ALL of the players they have now, they will need some breaks to even make it to the playoffs.

We need to improve to make the playoffs unless a miracle happens.  Without going into details, it doesn't appear any team will trade us players that will allow us to replace Lindor's production while making our team better long term.   For example, a trade to the Dodgers of both of these guys together would have to net Lux, May, Verdugo and Seager to make it worthwhile.  Otherwise, Otherwise, we might as well do a full rebuild.

From what I have seen there isn't a team who has or would be willing to trade as much of their immediate future to help us win this year and be set to keep this window open for another 4-5 years.

40 man roster fluff

As we are in the season of giving (we gave away Corey Kluber) we have to consider the possibility of getting multiple players back in trades, all or most of whom would have to be placed on the 40 man roster.   So let's take a look:

Pitchers

We have 21 pitchers on the roster.  20-22 seems to be common with teams so the number seems right)  Here are the breakdowns:

Major league starters: 7 (Carrasco, Clevinger, Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Plutko, Rodriguez)
Minor league starters: 4  (McKenzie, Moss (L), Allen (L), Hentges(L))
Major league relievers: 9 (Clase, Hand (L), Cimber, Karinchak, Hoyt, Maton, Perez (L), Wittgren, Wood)
Minor league relievers: 1 (Mejia)

Analysis: We are a little heavy on major league right-handed relievers.   At this point I consider Maton just a placeholder and would think the same thing about Hoyt if we hadn't brought him back once this off-season.  If we add a quality reliever or two then I think Hoyt and Wood are at risk.   Of course, this analysis is made very cloudy when you consider that one of the least likely guys to get cut, Nick Goody, has already been cut.  So, really, who knows what these analytics and financial people think as far as who is most expendable.  As far as starters I think we have exactly the right numbers (majors and minors combined) with the possibility of one of the lefties making the new 26-man roster as a long reliever.  Mejia is a guy who can stay on the roster now but, if he stinks in the minors and a roster spot is necessary during the year for a guy like Nick Sandlin, then removing Mejia becomes an easy decision.

Catchers: 3 (Haase, Perez, Leon)

Analysis:  This is where you want to be with three catchers who can play in the majors, the least of the three being an older prospect who still has some upside.   You carry two catchers and keep Haase at AAA in case of injury.

Infielders: 8: This includes Hernandez who isn't rostered yet.  

Firstbasemen: 2 (Santana, Bradley)
Starting infielders: 3 (Lindor, Ramirez, Hernandez)
Utility infielders: 3 (Arroyo, Velazquez and Chang)

Analysis: The starting infielders are solid and Bradley is a good prospect to be stashed at AAA in case of emergency.   Bauers is the emergency backup at first base, too, so we are good there.   Where we are way heavy is utility infielder.   Only one of these 3 should make the team.   My guess is that this would be Arroyo with Velazquez only being on the roster as protection in case Arroyo is not ready by opening day.    Chang is the AAA backup.   Perfect.

Outfielders:  9

Analysis:  We all know this is a disaster.  Even if you count Reyes as the DH and Bauers as the utility firstbaseman/corner outfielder you still have 7 outfielders.    If you count on Mercado in CF and the two headed corner outfielder (Luplow/Naquin) you still have 4 outfielders.   As Deshields is the vetran he makes the team.  That leaves Zimmer, Johnson and Allen.   Assuming Zimmer starts the year in the minors to continue his rehab, there is no way that Allen or Johnson make this team out of spring training.  If we get a quality corner outfielder somehow then we are looking at losing Bauers or Deshields or Naquin.   None of this is a problem for me as, except for Mercado, Luplow and Johnson (only because his development ceiling is still unclear), I don't really see Zimmer, Naquin, Allen, De Shields and Bauers having any more than replacement level value.


Overall summary:  We have replacement level players or prospects with minor league options in the major league bullpen, at utility infielder and in the outfield.  Just the major league replacement level players on the current 40 man roster represent at least 1/4 of that roster!  Lots of depth but not a lot of quality beyond the starters.    This makes 2020 a year in which we could easily fall way behind early like we did in 2019 and not have enough steam to catch up at the end, just like in 2019.