Wrestling with the 40 man roster and other things

 Other things first:

Eddie Rosario trade: We saved about $2,200,000 and gave away Rosario.   Salary dump

Myles Straw trade: You have to ask yourself why the Astros would trade a quality ML centerfielder for Phil Maton and a low A catcher (Yainer Diaz) that the Astros would have to roster this year.   Aside from that elephant in the room question, this looks like a good trade.   We were going to need to find a home for Diaz as no way can you roster a 22 year old catcher in low A ball.  That's assuming you think he would have been drafted in the Rule 5.  I have my doubts but even if we did keep him, it is tough to roster a guy who might run out of options before he gets to the majors the first time.  This will cost us to lose one of Johnson, Mercado or Zimmer to waivers this off-season., I guess.  Still, a win for the Indians.

Luplow and DJ Johnson for Peyton Battenfield - This is a win for Tampa.   They give up a AA pitcher who is not even on their top 50 prospects and get a guy back in Luplow who might win them a game or two down the stretch, hitting against tough lefthanders.  The Indians get another college starter, albeit this one, unlike Pilkington, doesn't have to be rostered after this season.  I think if you did a study of guys ranked from 20-30 in an organization's top prospects very few make the majors.   What happens if they are not even ranked.  Battenfield is a suspect, a filler, until proven otherwise.

The Hernandez trade keeps getting better.   Do you realize that now that the White Sox got Hernandez for nothing, they turned around and traded Nick Madrigal as the centerpiece for Kimbrell.   So the Hernandez trade netted them not only Hernandez but allowed them to get Kimbrell, as well.   And we got Konnor Pinkington.  Yeah, in the best interested of the team.   BTW, another $1.8 million saved.  

Still waiting to here how we spent the other $150,000 of our draft budget.

40-man roster issues

I made two lists.  Players who should be on the 40-man roster this winter and players who will be competing for the remaining few spots on the 40-man roster this winter.

Locks - guys currently on the 40-man roster

1. Shane Bieber

2. Aaron Civale

3. Emmanuel Clase

4. Sam Hentges

5. James Karinchak

6. Triston McKenzie

7. JC Mejia

8. Zach Plesac

9. Cal Quantrill

10. Nick Sandlin

11. Roberto Perez

12.Gabe Arias

13. Bobby Bradley

14. Andres Gimenez

15. Nolan Jones

16. Jose Ramirez

17. Amed Rosario

18. Josh Naylor

19. Franmil Reyes

20. Myles Straw

Guys not on the 40 man now but virtual locks

21. Joey Cantillo - Even though he was hurt this year he was a valuable part of the Clevinger trade.   They won't expose him to the Rule 5

22. Konnor Pinkington - Can you imagine losing this guy in the Rule 5 after trading Hernandez

23. Bryan Lavastida

24. Tyler Freeman

25. Johnkensy Noel - In low minors but power and athleticism are so compelling you can't leave him unprotected.  Think Anthony Santander. 

26. Richie Palacios

27. Brayan Rocchio

28. George Valera - He is so low in the minors that he might not even get his first cup of coffee until 2023, after we burned his second option. More likely it would be sometime in 2024, when we would have burned all three of his options.  That's for his first taste, not getting to the majors for good

29/ Oscar Gonzalez - He looks too good to not roster.  Maybe that changes after the rest of the AAA season but I doubt it.

So, we need to fill 11 spots.   

Virtual Locks 

30. Carlos Vargas - Currently on the roster so almost a lock

31. Eli Morgan - ditto

32. Trevor Stephen

33. Harold Ramirez

That's 33.  So we have 7 left to place on the 40.   If we don't remove any other young player from the current 40-man we have this.

34. Owen Miller

35. Yu Chang

36. Bradley Zimmer

37. Oscar Mercado

38. Daniel Johnson

39. Ernie Clement

40. Logan Allen

41. Scott Moss

42. Austin Hedges

43. Cam Hill

44. Justin Garza

45. Nick Wittgren

So, we would have to lose 5 players on this list to get down to 40.   All of those 5 would have to be DFA'd, I think.  I mean, we didn't even want to give up on Jake Bauers.   How much do you think the FO wants to give up on 5 (or more, see below) of these guys and get nothing for them?

Guys still on the outside looking in:

Cody Morris

Will Benson

Jose Tena

Franciso Perez

Jose Fermin

Alexfri Planez

Juan Mota

Jerson Ramirez

Shane McCarthy

Adam Scott

Steve Kwan 

Trenton Brooks

Jonathon Rodriguez

Aaron Pinto

Connor Marabell

Steve Kwan

Dakody Clemmer

These guys would have to be rostered or risk being taken in the Rule 5.  Of these you would like to protect the first 4 although Mota and Jerson Ramirez are risks to be taken.

BOTTOM LINE:

So this is our dilemma.  If it was me our 40-man would look like this:

1. Shane Bieber

2. Aaron Civale

3. Emmanuel Clase

4. Sam Hentges

5. James Karinchak

6. Triston McKenzie

7. JC Mejia

8. Zach Plesac

9. Cal Quantrill

10. Nick Sandlin

11. Roberto Perez

12.Gabe Arias

13. Bobby Bradley

14. Andres Gimenez

15. Nolan Jones

16. Jose Ramirez

17. Amed Rosario

18. Josh Naylor

19. Franmil Reyes

20. Myles Straw

21. Joey Cantillo 

22. Konnor Pinkington

23. Bryan Lavastida

24. Tyler Freeman

25. Johnkensy Noel - 

26. Richie Palacios

27. Brayan Rocchio

28. George Valera 

29/ Oscar Gonzalez 

30. Carlos Vargas 

31. Eli Morgan

32. Trevor Stephen

33. Harold Ramirez

34. Owen Miller

35. Francisco Perez

36. Jose Tena

37. Will Benson

38. Jose Fermin

39. Cody Morris

40. Austin Hedges

The following guys would lose their roster spot and have to be DFA'd.  Some have enough service time that they wouldn't have to accept the demotion to the minors and are able to become free agents.  If any of these guys make it through waivers and are sent to the minor leagues they would all have to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

Ernie Clement 

Logan Allen

Scott Moss

Cam Hill

Justin Garza

Nick Wittgren

Yu Chang

Bradley Zimmer

Oscar Mercado

Daniel Johnson

Yu Chang

Bradley Zimmer

Oscar Mercado

Daniel Johnson

The following guys would have to be exposed to the Rule 5.

Alexfri Planez

Juan Mota

Jerson Ramirez

Shane McCarthy

Adam Scott

Steve Kwan 

Trenton Brooks

Jonathon Rodriguez

Aaron Pinto

Connor Marabell

Steve Kwan

Dakody Clemmer

You see the dilemma.   I could see 10 of these guys picked in the Rule 5.   Easily.    And some others like Wittgren and Zimmer might have enough service time to become free agents rather than go to the minors.

Plus our 40 msn then has an extreme number of guys  (10)who will not likely impact the ML team in 2022 as they will not have enough experience and/or will still be rehabbing from injury:

Joey Cantillo 

Konnor Pinkington

Bryan Lavastida

Tyler Freeman

Johnkensy Noel  

Richie Palacios

Brayan Rocchio

George Valera 

Oscar Gonzalez 

Carlos Vargas 

Plus, if that isn't enough pressure, our roster will be packed with prospects and we won't be able to add anyone in free agency without DFAing a true prospect.

This is a mess and it would require some nifty trading to get us out of this mess, turning 3 prospects into one ML-readyprospect.  

I have no faith our FO can pull this off.

But what do I know.

Liar or idiot or both

 It's simple.   Chris Antonetti is either an idiot or a liar.

1. I am making an assumption here.   The article in the PD says there wasn't a market for second baseman among contenders.  Well, the Giants have 33 year old journeyman Donovan Solano with his .672 OPS and two stolen bases playing second base.   I am pretty sure that the Giants could use an upgrade at second base.

2. "....we're happy to make a decision that is in our best interest."  This one could go either way.  The idiot or liar part, that is.  Two things here:

(a) The Indians are in deep trouble with their 40-man roster this year.   They will likely have to put guys on the 40-man this winter who won't help them next year but are likely candidates to get selected in the Rule 5 draft (and not returned) if the Indians don't roster them.  Frankly, they have no extra roster spots.

(b) Konnor Pilkington, who they got in the trade for Hernandez and who looks like Logan Allen part deux, has to be rostered this winter or we could lose him in the Rule 5, too.

(c) The Indians just drafted 18 college pitchers in this draft and so they are not in need of another college pitcher, especially one that isn't even good enough to be in the White Sox top 30 prospects.

The big question here is whether the Indians even knew that Pilkington has to be rostered this winter.   Given what we saw when the Indians gave Jake Bauers WAY too many chances to try to justify the really bad Yandy Diaz trade, Pilkington will be rostered this winter even though he may not deserve it, given who else the Indians have to roster.   No way will Antonetti allow himself to lose face by losing Pilkington in the Rule 5 draft after trading Hernandez for him.   Count on some guy who we really want to keep end up being lost in the Rule 5 due to rostering Pilkington.

 So, Antonetti lied about teams not needing second basemen.   He is a liar or an idiot for saying this trade was in the Indians best interest and he is an idiot for taking a pitcher who has to be rostered this winter into an organization that doesn't have any roster spots to waste and doesn't need any more college pitchers.  On top of that he is an idiot for trading Hernandez to the best team in the division.

We saved $1.8 million by trading Hernandez.   That is what this is really about.  That is on Dolan.  Not getting anything worth anything back for Hernandez is on Antonetti and Chernof.  This following the low return we got for Lindor/Carrasco tells me these guys are not doing their job when we are trading guys to cut budget.

Oh, BTW, any writer ask Antonetti why we over $150,000 left on our draft budget and what the plans were to spend the money to improve the organization which, of course, would be in the organization's "best interest".  Or what about the rumor that Toronto offered the Indians more than the Mets for Lindor?

Look, this is my team.   I have rooted for them for over 60 years.   These guys are not doing their jobs.  Nor is Dolan.   Anyone think that Tito jumped ship because he saw that?  You gotta ask yourself, right?

Another terrible trade made by the Indians

 The White Sox were struggling without Nick Madrigal.   They needed a second baseman.   A veteran.   Someone who could help them in the playoffs because that is where they are heading.

I get it.   That's what they need.  

The Indians weren't making the playoffs.   They needed to make room for Andres Gimenez.  

I get it.  That's what the Indians wanted to do.

But I will say this and I'd be willing to say it to Antonneti's  and Chernof's faces.

This was a TERRIBLE baseball trade.   They  traded a veteran second baseman, Gold Glove last year.   Career high in HR this year.  A guy that had a very reasonable option for next year, one without any buyout.  

Basically, if the White Sox wanted it, 1 1/2 seasons of veteran, good production.

We got back a guy who isn't even among the White Sox top 30 prospects.   Nowhere near it.  He is Mason Hickman.  No outstanding stuff.   Nothing to hang your hat on.  

This is the kind of guy who is a throw-in to a trade like this.  Not the trade package in and of himself.

At a time when freaking 7th inning relievers who are rentals are bringing back top 30 prospects and starting players are bringing back THREE top 30 prospects (Joey Gallo), we get a suspect, not a prospect but a suspect 

This is, by far, the worst trade these guys have ever made.   They needed to get something useful back and they got nothing.   They got robbed by a team in their division and they did not make their team better for next year or likely the year after that or maybe ever as the guy they got back is NOT a prospect.  

All they did was save a little money.   

This is the freaking trade deadline.  Teams pay dearly in prospects for guys who they want and even more dearly if those guys are controllable and reasonably priced for more than just this year.   That was Hernandez.

The problem with sports writers is that none of them wants to bite the hand that feeds them so they won't ask the tough questions.

But if one of them had the balls they should ask these losers why, in the face of what other teams are getting for lesser players and less controllable players why they got so little for Hernandez when they traded him to a division rival and one with a need.   And don't give me this crap of that is all the market would bring.   If that is the case you just hold onto Hernandez or trade him outside the division.

And while that sportswriter is at it, why not ask him about the widely accepted rumor that they could have gotten more for Lindor/Carrasco from Toronto than what they got from the Mets.   

So much for threading the needle.   These guys are idiots.  They are killing this team.   They need to do better than this.   WAY better.

Wednesday afternoon thoughts: Today's win, trade deadline stock changes, draft signing update, general thoughts

 Today's win!

Fun win today.   You don't have to have dominant starting pitching.   Just OK starting pitching, a little luck (Molina's drive) and a good bullpen.   Reyes leaving the building in the 2nd was fun..  Four HRs was fun.  Last 16 batters going down for the Cardinals was fun.   Splitting this series with St. Louis was perfect, having to face Wainwright and Kim.

What was not fun was watching Yu Chang swing at two different 3-0 pitches.   When you are hitting .180 your job is to take one for the team (see Bradley Zimmer's approach) not try to fatten your average against struggling pitchers.   See Ernie Clement for how baseball is supposed to be played.  On top of that, Chang always appears to be laughing.   Most of the time it is when he is not going well.   Hey, I don't want guys to be tight but, crap, man, break a bat over your thigh once in a while to let us know you really do care about hitting .180.  Oh, and stop hitting .180!

Trade Deadline Stock

To level set, we are one game over .500.   Look at our lineup and we are weak.   Look at the Cardinals lineup and they are not weak.   The Cardinals are likely to get Mikolas and Flaherty back before we get Beiber and Civale back.   The Cardinals should not be in sell mode.   The Indians should be in sell mode.  With that in mind, let's take a look at which way each guy's tradability stock is moving.

Moving up

Cesar Hernandez.   Not only is he historically solid his stats are trending up right now and he looks comfortable at the plate.

Staying Flat

Eddie Rosario.   He is still on the DL so no change there.

Austin Hedges.   He is solid but he is a backup catcher.   They are simply fungible assets that might get a trade partner make a deal if you pay the remainder of his salary this year.   But he isn't worth more than that.

Going Down

Bryan Shaw.   Exactly what his trade value didn't need was his Tuesday meltdown.   I am pretty sure he will be traded but his value is not what it was a week ago (maybe 75%).  Considering that the Cubs got a ML-ready outfielder in Greg Dsichmann and a mnor league throw-in pitcher for Andrew Chafin.   That is about the value (and probably the trade) I would have liked to see the Indians make for the two week ago version of Shaw.   Now it is questionable if we even get that much for him.

Nick Wittgren.  After his 9th inning meltdown over the weekend I just don't see how he has any value.   Pity.   About two weeks ago I thought he had some decent value in a trade, especially if included with one or more of the above guys.  One more thing.   Sorry Mr. Wittgren about the haters on the internet.  Even those of us mad or disappointed with you for your performance should never make it personal.  

Draft signing update

Still waiting to find out whether Jake Miller will sign.  A little movement on the draft budget as what was thought to be a slot signing in the later rounds turned out to be $25,000 over slot.   This still gives us a $154,800 surplus from our bonus pool.   We need to spend that money (hopefully in an effective way) by August 1st or it will go back into the general budget and probably be used to buy paper clicks and pay for the company Christmas party (tongue firmly place in cheek here, but you know what I mean).  C'mon guys, impress the fans and your bosses by finding a way to make our farm system better with that money before it evaporates from the draft budget.

General Thoughts

Should I be more excited about 21 year old Gabriel Arias performing well at AAA or 22 year old Jamie Arias Bautista performing well at low A Lynchburg?  How about 21 year old Bo Naylor struggling to keep his head above water at AA or 22 year old Yainer Diaz raking at low A?  The point here is that age matters and the Indians have agressively moved some guys up the organization this year, much to the detriment of their statistics.  So I am taking this year's statistics with a grain of salt and trying to factor in age and level into my thinking.   Thus I am not disappointed with Raynel Delgado and guys like that.   They struggle but they show flashes.   

I can't wait to see what Johnkensy Noel does every night.

Hope Owen Miller figures it out.   I think there is about to be an opening at second base on the Indians.

Oh well, time for some minor league baseball tonight

Indians raise white flag - how is the stock of our tradeable pieces changing?

 So, the Indians today put Aaron Civale on the 60-day DL, meaning he can't pitch for another month.   By then the season will be, essentially, over.   By that I mean that with the current rotation and schedule the Indians will not be able to win enough to stay in contention.   By the time Civale comes back they may be 10 games under .500.   

This is the final move that says to me that the Indians are giving up on this season as this move was 100% about Civale not being ready and 0% about the guy (Young) who we added to the roster.  

Thus, you can expect the Indians to be a big seller before the trade deadline.  That being said, let's take a look at how the value of our available trip chips has changed in the past week or so.  Note that any guy who I think could be (a) a part of next year's team (e.g., no Jose Ramirez trade) or (b) has zero trade value (e.g., Oscar Mercado and Daniel Johnson) or (c) isn't currently on the 26-man roster, isn't included below, except for Austin Hedges who we might be able to give away if we eat a decent percentage of his remaining salary.  

Cesar Hernandez - STOCK GOING UP - signed through this season with an option for next year.   I am not sure that the option is transferable to another team.   Hernandez's stock is going up with his performance against the Rays.   Teams in need of a second baseman can see how he can help them in the playoffs and, along with his performance last year (offensively and defensively)

Jordan Luplow - STOCK GOING UP - This is weird to say but Luplow does have minimal value in a trade.  His history against LHP could be value to a contender in a pennant race if for no other reason just the incremental advantage he has against lefties.   The fact that he is looking good on his rehab means he could be back up to the majors in a day or two and traded a day or two later, if his instant performance looks solid.

Harold Ramirez - STOCK GOING UP - Hey, I get it.  HRam has looked good in our outfield this year.   But that isn't hard to do given how bad our OF is.  Still, to a contender, his performance this year gives him significant value as he gets clutch hits and is a high energy guy.   Just the type of guy who could be responsible for your team winning a couple of crucial games down the stretch.  But as an Indians' OFer for next year and in the future?  He is a 4th outfielder on a contending team.   Maybe he improves but I don't think that he can change who he is at this point.   So turning him into a prospect in a trade is actually a great idea as this is the only time of year that teams will take a serious look at a guy like this.

Bryan Shaw -  - STOCK STAYING THE SAME -  He has pitched a lot, mostly effectively, but his percentage of failures have gone up recently so teams could be wary that he is not as effective as he appeared earlier in the year.   Still, looking at his body of work, he is a solid reliever for a contending team in need of relief help (and which contending team isn't in need of veteran relief help?

Eddie Rosario - STOCK STAYING THE SAME - Until Rosario gets back on the field he is damaged goods.   Still, to me he has a lot of worth   Solid offensive clutch hitter, Power potential still there.   Good clubhouse guy on a contender.

Nick Wittgren - STOCK GOING DOWN - Wittgren needed a solid performance this weekend and he didn't get it, giving up 5 in the 9th in a loss.  His value is almost non-existent now but maybe a contender will take a flyer on him and we could, as I have proposed, trade him for a little international bonus money.

Austin Hedges - LITTLE IF ANY TRADE VALUE - Hedges' salary and lack of offense makes his trade value zero.  I doubt if any contender wants to add him at this point so he will be here for the rest of the season, unfortunately,  Still, a team in need of a solid veteran backup catcher might be willing to take him off our hands if we eat 75% of his remaining salary.   Doing a deal like this might even be able to get us $50,000 in international bonus money.  

I have said this before but I will say it again here.   The best value the Indians can get for these guys is to package them together, eat some salary, and include receiving international bonus money in any deal they make.   My proposed trade to the Giants does that.   Hopefully the Indians will be able to make a trade like this and bring in some close to ML-ready talent into the majors.   

Thoughts for a Saturday night

 Just a few more pitches

Francona has, since he started managing the Indians, had this annoying habit of leaving his starters in too long.  However, in the last week it has really gotten bad.

Twice he left his starter in into the 5th inning even though these guys had struggled with traffic on the bases and pitch counts to get through the 4th.   Once it was into the 6th, pulling his starter after one batter only to have that runner score and today, leaving Mejia in into the 7th, even though he was decent through the 6th.   Again, one batter, Mejia is pulled, reliever comes in to give up that run. In all of these cases he had to go to the bullpen to finish the inning.

The question is, why is he burying these kids.   He claims he doesn't want to put players in a position that will harm their development.  Yet he does this with his pitchers.  AND IT NEVER WORKS OUT. 

I just don't get it.  It is one of his few Achilles heels as a manager.  He needs to clean that up.   When I can watch a game and see this is going to happen, he should, too.

Excess draft pool money and what to do with it

Right now we have, on paper, almost $104,000 unspent draft bonus money.   Assuming that we don't use it all to sign Jake Miller or haven't already used it to sign a few of the 11-20 round guys we don't have bonus numbers for, here are a couple of guys who went undrafted that we might want to think about signing:

Jonathon Cooper, RHP, Georgia - probably out of our price range but wanted to lead with him.

Will Frisch RHP Oregon State - Again, I don't know if $225,000 would do it but you never know

There are probably a number of JUCO guys or guys playing in Cape Cod or other summer leagues who may be interested in signing for 9th round money.   Too tired to look for them but, if we have excess, they may be out there.

The Jake Bauers effect

Guys gettting on our nerves who keep hanging on with a good performance or two.   This applies to both Oscar Mercado and Daniel Johnson.  They just keeping doing just enough to make you think they are about to bust out.  You don't want those guys doing good things after you release them, so you give them too many chances.   Really hits home when you are playing Tampa and Joey Wendle and Yandy Diaz and Louis Head are beating your brains out.  I get it.   But, damn, can't those guys just perform here so we don't have to play bad players or watch our bad players get good somewhere else?

Indians draft signings so far - 7/26 Update

We now know all the guys the Indians have signed and what they signed for, thanks to MLB.com.

If I do my math right we currently have a $187,500 surplus if you subtract what we paid these guys from their draft slot values.

There have been no reports that we signed Jake Miller (20th)

Analysis so far:  We have $187,500 left from our bonus pool.   The Indians, since the inception of the bonus slotting system, have never had more than $10,000 left from a bonus pool.   So, what will happen with the rest of this bonus pool?

Three scenarios about what the Indians will do with this leftover money:

• They may use a little of it to sign our 20th round pick, Jake Miller, although only the part of his bonus OVER $125,000 would count against our draft pool total.  My guess is, at the most, you are looking at a $175,000 bonus meaning, worst case, we would STILL have a $137,500 surplus.
• They can still sign guys who weren't drafted.   They still get $125,000 to sign each one and anything over that goes against their draft pool.  If you anticipate that they have the entire $187,500 left over, they will have over $300,000 left to spend without going over their pool budget.   This is beginning of 6th round money, meaning they might still be able to get a pretty good prospect.  Looking at the undrafted players left after the draft here are guys who they might be able to entice with that amount of money
• Troy Melton, RHP San Diego St.
• Dylan Ross, RHP, juco pitcher
• Nick Maldanado, RHP Vanderbilt
• Seth Stephenson, juco SS
• Jaelen Battle, Arkansas SS

...and, of course, a whole slew of highly rated HS players who likely already have solid college commitments that this kind of money won't move the needle for them to sign.

• They could just keep the money and not use it on the draft.  Remember, it can't be carried over to next year or added to our international spending budget.

One word about not spending the money.  Baseball's player development system is a lot like the R&D budget at a company.  Most of that budget ends up being wasted on projects that don't work out.  Still, R&D is the lifeblood for new products at many companies, especially small companies...and the player development systems of many (especially small budget) major league teams.   Not spending part of your draft budget is like a company taking a portion of their R&D budget and putting it in their general budget.  It just doesn't allow you company to grow effectively.   If the Indians don't spend close to their draft budget it is a bad sign.   So, somehow, some combination of the first and second bullets above is what SHOULD happen.   Let's hope it does.   

Stay tuned.  I will update this post as I learn more about where the missing surplus has been spent or if it is going to go unspent.