My screaming into the wind about the CBA

 So, we are approaching the end of the current CBA with the prospective of the lockout if a new CBA is not finalized by Wednesday at 11:59 pm.

So I am going to put my two cents in even you I may be the only one who hears my screaming.

1. Luxury tax ceiling - I am in agreement with the rumors that this should be higher.  I would say a 10% bump would be reasonable.  

2. Increase of teams in the playoffs to 14.  Agan, a great idea as it keeps more teams in contention longer.

3. Lottery for top draft picks - Again, I like this.  Teams shouldn't be incentivized to tank.  It works for the NBA and it would work here.

4. Institution of a universal DH.  Great idea.  

So far so good, right?  OK, let's look at some of the things I don't agree with and how we could fix them.

A. The MLBPA has long wanted a salary floor.   This would mean that teams would be expected to spend a certain amount (say $100 million) on salaries each year.   The result would generally be that teams would have to sign enough free agents and/or pay their existng players enough money to reach this threshold.  My counter proposal is this:

    1. Institute a 'soft' salary floor.  That is, teams must COMMIT $100 million in salary each year.  That would include offers made to players under their control (not free agent offers).   Thus if the Indians offered Shane Bieber $100 million for 5 years that $20 million for 2022 would count towards that $100 million floor.  Beiber does not have to accept that offer but, nevertheless, the Indians have made a good faith offer that, if accepted, would lock them into paying him long-term and lock Bieber into being an Indian for a long time.

    2. Along with #1, I would move the trigger to arbitration to 2 years, eliminating the super 2 category and making arbitration more uniform.  I have long believed that good players like Bieber should be paid early.  I would also eliminate arbitration hearings and replace that whole process with a performance-based salary system for these players that would kick in after their first 2 years.

    3, I would increase the starting salary in the majors to $750,000 a year.  Teams that want to stack their roster with players with less service time would be disincentivized to do so as it would cost them almost $200,000 more per player on their roster to use rookies.   This would also benefit the rookies.

Let me be clear about one thing: the idea of a hard floor is a non-starter.  As I have seen it expressed by agents and the MLBPA, this is just a ploy to get teams to overspend on mediocre free agents who are being left out of the lucrative free agent market.  These players are being left out because they are not good enough for the money they are asking for.   Also, the soft floor might, indeed, cost the best free agents money as they would likely not hit the open market as soon.   But I don't give a crap about that.  This floor should be an incentive for teams to pay their homegrown players earlier and more than they do now.  Making arbitration sooner would prompt that to happen, as well.

Small market teams should use the soft floor to invest in their own players, not to fill the pockets of mediocre free agents or create bidding wars to make the best free agents more highly paid.  

B. As mentioned before on this blog, the Rule 5 draft should be eliminated.  It should be replaced by the following:

    1. Players signed before their 19th birthday would become minor league free agents if not placed on the 40 man roster by the December 1st before their 24th birthday.

    2. Players signed before their 23rd birthday would become minor league free agents if not placed on a 40-man roster before the December 1st before their 25th birthday.

Latino kids would get the full benefit of up to 8 years of development and US college kids would get 3-4 years of development time, appropriate as they are more physically mature and more highly trained.

C. There would no longer be a 4th option year granted for any player.   Eliminating this would allow players to reach minor league free agency sooner (27 for younger players, 28 for older players) even if they were placed on the 40 man roster at the end of the periods described above.

D. Teams losing top free agents should be granted a supplemental pick after the 5th round of the draft plus an addition of $250,000 to their bonus pool above what it should be based on all their draft slots in the first 10 rounds, even if they did not make a qualifying offer.   If they made a qualifying offer they should get both the supplemental pick in the existing agreement AND the supplemental 5th round pick plus the bonus pool bump.  This proposal would not seriously impact the nature of the draft but would give the teams losing quality players to free agency something more to help them work with to rebuild more quickly.    Plus it would be more money in the pool to give to younger players.

E. As part of the lottery process.   All teams that failed to make the playoffs would be allowed to sign draftees in rounds 11-20 for up to $200,000 with it not counting against their bonus pool cap.  This, again, allows the poorer teams compete better by spending more on the draft which, as we all know, if the poor man's way of developing big league talent.  

F. I am for NOT for an international draft.  The international draft cap works fine right now and I would even strengthen the penalties for violating this cap.  

These are just some of my comments.   I honestly feel that the agents and the highly paid players should set the framework for these changes but that the have-not teams should fill in the details.  The goal should still be to level the playing field as much as we can without true tanking going on.

Handicapping the chances of our Rule 5-eligible prospects actually being selected in the Rule 5

 Two things to say before we start this discussion:

1. My ability to predict which Indians' prospects will be selected in the Rule 5 draft, excluding a few, rare no-brainer exceptions), ranges between poor and pathetic so take what you read below with a grain of salt.

2. If the collective bargaining agreement is not agreed upon the word is that all transactions (and the Rule 5 draft would likely qualify as a transaction) would be frozen so the conversation below may become moot at that point.

Here goes:

Oscar Gonzalez - A guy who, at 23, hit 31 HRs between AA and AAA after not having a minor league season in 2020 is way too hard to resist.  Yes he has warts: bad defense, very bad plate discipline.   But he hits and he hits HRs.   Gven that maybe all the teams in baseball this coming year, if there is a baseball season in 2022, could have the DH, I think there is close to 100% chance he gets selected.  Not as the first pick overall because pitching is more valuable than hitting.  But he will at least be a second round pick for a team making two picks (see Pirates, for example, or maybe even the Nationals)

Aaron Bracho - In the face of guys in his international class excelling, he struggled.  I don't know if it was by design to hide him or because that's where he fits, but he played a lot of first base and third base and no shortstop and Bracho will not hit like a first baseman or third baseman if he even makes the majors.  While he is the top prospect by ranking available among Guardian prospects, he is one of the least likely to get selected (10%) and, if he gets selected, one of the least likely to stick with the drafting team.  He is also one of my picks to have a breakout MINOR LEAGUE season in 2022.

Joey Cantillo - He is an interesting case because he is a relatively highly ranked prospect but not really, before his injury this year, even a top 10 prospect in the Indians system.  He doesn't have any high minors experience and missed the whole year this year, essentially.  He might be able to be stashed a couple of months on a 60-day DL based on his recovery from this year's injury but here is a classc example of the team drafting him looking more at his prospect status than his true ability to stick in the majors this year.   20% chance he gets drafted.  As far as sticking, TJ McFarland comes to mind as a comp but that was when LOOGYs were a thing which went away with the 3 batter minimum.

Juan Mota - I would say 50% chance he gets drafted.   Although he is the real-life wild thing he pitched extensively in AAA and can get it up there at 100 mph.  He is the perfect Rule 5 lottery ticket and I can see any number of rebuilding teams taking a shot at him.  If Luis Oviedo can last a whole year I am thinking Mota can.

Jerson Ramirez - 10% chance.  He is still too far down in the minors to see if his stuff will even play in the majors.

Aaron Pinto - Based on his AFL numbers, no chance he gets drafted.

Adam Scott - 50%.  Being left-handed and given that so many teams are using openers, some for most of their rotation,  I see him as a great opener or innings-eating garbage time reliever for a rebuilding team.  He pitched just enough in 2021 to make teams forget he was injured most of the year and to keep teams from finding warts in his game that might cause them to avoid him come Rule 5 draft tme.

Matt Turner - Too young, very bad in the AFL.  0% chance he gets drafted.

Andres Melendez - 5% chance he gets drafted.   He is an intriguing prospect but too far down the minors for a team to keep him even as a 3rd catcher.

Jose Fermin - In a vacuum I might say that this versatile, hustling infielder with a ridiculoowly low strikeout rate might get selected.  But you have to realize, as good as he looks to us, there a likely to be dozens of more intriguing middle infielders with better power, better speed, etc. than Fermin has.   While he looks good to us I don't see him standing out to other teams.  25% chance of getting drafted.

Marcos Gonzalez - Hidden away at AA the same way Bracho was hidden away at high A, I don't think Gonzalez gets drafted but, along with Bracho, he is one of my breakout prospects in the minor leagues for the Indians next year.  15% chance he gets drafted,

Will Benson - 5% chance he gets drafted.   He has too many holes in his game and the projection on him is still 2 more solid minor league seasons until he can contribute in the majors.   I don't see any team drafting him as they know he will be a 5th wheel next year and they might have to run out of options on him before he is ready to stick in the majors.  

Alexfri Planez - In a normal Rule 5 some team might take a chance on him.  However, every team was in the same boat as the Guardians with prospects whose development was stunted due to the lack of the 2020 minor league season.   So, instead of becoming an intrguing prospect some team takes a lottery-ticket try with, he is just another intriguing prospect too far away from the majors to waste $100,000 on..  15% chance of getting drafted but another of my picks to break out (maybe a Valera-like breakout) in 2022.

Jonathon Rodriguez - He was young for his draft class and teams will pass on him because he is so young and so far away from the majors, even if he lasts the season with his drafting team.  Anthony Santander was a better prospect and look how long it REALLY took him to settle in.   15% chance gets drafted.

Justin Garza - Yes, he will be eligible.   But why would a team select him when they could have had him for essentially nothing on the waiver wire?

Daniel Johnson - Ditto to Garza.

There are always guys who are drafted who are head scratchers at the time (TJ McFarland comes to mind.  Who would have ever thought he was going to stick that year with the Orioles or have the career that he has had.  So someone else on our list might get drafted.   Even Sandy Leon is eligible, for what that's worth.  

It will be interesting but, if we lost two who didn't come back last year (Tom and Oviedo), expect to lose at least 2 (100% chance) and maybe 3 (50% chance), 4 (25% chance) or 5(10% chance) this year.

Recapping the DFA'd players and the impact and implications going forward

 The Indians added 10 prospects to their roster this month and also DFA'd 10 players who were on the roster before these additions.  Let's talk about the loss of those players, the impact on the roster and the implications for the upcoming Rule 5 draft if, indeed, that really happens.  

1. Players DFA'd

Nick Wittgren - This was not Wittgren's best season and, in anticipation of having to pay him in arbitration, the Indians decided to DFA him.   He became a free agent and is currently looking for employment.   Clearly Wittgren's innings will have to be replaced.   While he didn't always perform well this year, the innings he pitched were important and not just garbage, mop-up innings so they have to be replaced by someone who is effective.   That would imply a veteran.  

Francisco Perez - He did not impact this year's team at all.  His innings, the few he had, were garbage innings for the most part.  The hope is that he would have had a larger role in 2022 but that won't happen, at least not with the Guardians.  Being a former starter he could have given us multiple innings both as an opener and as a bridge reliever.   We will need to find a person to fill that role.  As it would not be a high leverage role we could fill it with someone from the minors but I don't see that person presenting himself right now.  We'll see, but I hope we don't try to fill this role with a veteran from outside the organization.  It won't be worth the dollars or the roster spot. 

J.C. Mejia - I saw him as a 5th-8th inning guy this year.  Clearly his 2021 season wasn't what it could have been and I think the Indians lost faith that he could finetune things to be effective.  I disagree but the bottom line is that his role will have to be filled, likely from outside the organization.  The only silver lining here is that his trade may bring back a low level prospect if he performs well for his new team.

Cam Hill - Hill's injury and really his ceiling as a 6th inning, garbage time reliever is easily replaced.  This is not a bg loss as it stands right now.

Scott Moss - Like Mejia, you always hate to lose guys who have not reached their potential or exposed themselves as being easily replaceable assets.   You would like those guys to be stashed at AAA so if their performance or health has an epiphany, your team is the one that will collect on that.  Since he didn't provide anything n 2021 his loss, on paper, should not impact 2022.  On paper!

Harold Ramirez - Like Wittgren, he had his moments.   The issue is we have a number of prospects who likely can take his playing time and be at least as effective.   If his loss is really a probblem, this team is in bigger trouble in the outfield than I think.

Justin Garza - What happened to Garza (no waiver claim, being outrighted to the minors) is what I hoped would happen to Moss and Mejia...and Perez.  In that light, I think Garza may be able to pick up the multiple, bridge/garbage innings next year.   However, if he does he will bump someone else off the roster and I would rather see a veteran upgrade with Garza being at AAA as insurance.

Alex Young - A midseason pickup I did not understand, Young was outrighted to the minors.   If he chooses to stay with the Guardians he will add just what he added this year, an emergency presence who can be DFA'd again without having to lose a higher value prospect.

Kyle Nelson - Interesting that he was actually claimed on waivers.   His 2021 was forgettable in the majors and the minors and he never seemed like a dominant prospect.   Rather, he seemed to be an overachiever whose overachievement seemed to run out this year.   He is a lefty and has had some minor league success but is exactly the kind of guy you take off your roster when you have a need.

Daniel Johnson - Johnson has gotten plenty of chances and hasn't improved.   He is exactly the kind of guy you want at AAA, someone who still has the chance to have an epiphany and is young enough for that to vault him into a starter-level player.   Unless he does, however, there will always be an up-and-coming tweener (cough! Steven Kwan.  cough!) who will be the nice, new, shiny, piece who will get the first crack.   Even at that, excellent performance at AAA might not be enough to get him another major league shot as AAAA players look good at AAA as they get older.  

Analysis - All-in-all, the Indians lost some valuable AAA, homegrown depth and a couple of guys, Wittgren and Ramirez, who are easily replaceable.  If we can get it done, guys like Bryan Shaw and Blake Parker can be had on minor league deals.   Knowing that our bullpen is, on paper, really short right now, I would like to see us sign about four more guys that caliber instead of the other minor league vetrerans we signed last year. 

Impact on the Rule 5 draft - The main guy impacted by all this is Joey Cantillo.  If Kyle Nelson gets a major league deal it likely means Cantillo could be at much higher risk of getting selected in the Rule 5 as teams obviously have roster space for guys like Nelson and Moss and even Perez.  Cantillo is, in my opinion, a better prospect with more long-term upside so teams may choose to take a chance on him if major league roster space exists for guys who are much more like fringe prospects.

Random thoughts for a Tuesday

 Do you realize that Yainer Diaz, whose stock actually went UP significantly after he was traded, was not protected by the Astros and is eligible for the Rule 5 draft?  He wouldn't have made the cut here, either, but according to mlb.com he is the Astros #13 prospect.   More on this stuff later when I do a complete analysis of all the players eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

From Baker Mayfield:  'Hey, you people in the stands.   Could you shut up, please.   I am trying to work here!"

I saw a retweet of a Myles Straw tweet saying he now on Cameo and inviting fans to connect with him for "shoutouts, birthdays, holidays, even some baseball advice if you want.  Hit me up and let's have some fun with this"  Cameo is a subscription service where, for a fee, you can connect with celebrities.   Now I like to give people the benefit of the doubt but I hope that Mr. Straw is not trying to make a little extra coin by getting fans to pay for the right to interact with him.   

Clint Frazier was placed on release waivers today by the Yankees. Remember that we traded Frazier, Justus Sheffeld, JP Feyereisen and Ben Heller for Andrew Miller.   I was pretty confident we would rue that trade down the road after Miller was gone.   Not so much.   Probably the best player out of that trade so far was JP Feyereisen and he is a middle reliever/setup man.  Go figure!

Early betting lines for the Browns-Raven game on Sunday:

Over: Ravens

Under: Browns

Spread: The difference between how good Baker Mayfield's wife thinks he is and how good he really is.

Stefanski's first statement in the post-game press conference after a 56-7 pounding - "I know this looked bad but we will fix this."

The Cavs had just enough to make noise in the NBA this year.  But the loss of Sexson shows that how teams without experienced superstar rosters are just one injury away from not having enough horses to compete.   Don't get me wrong.  I love the direction the Cavs are going.   If they had LeBron I think they could compete for the East this year.   I think they are that close to being an elite team.   It's just a shame that the loss of one player on a team that is very young and needs to stay that way is actually as impactful as it is, especially since Sexson is not a superstar but just a very good player.

  

What's The Future For This Roster?

 Now that we have this roster let's look at the future of this roster, both this year and in the future.

Starting Pitchers:

Shane Beiber

Aaron Civale

Zach Plesac

Cal Quantrill

Triston McKenzie

Eli Morgan

Cody Morris

Logan Allen

Konnor Pilkington

Tobias Myers 

Peyton Battenfield (minors)

Logan T. Allen (minors)

Adam Scott (minors, if not taken in Rule 5)

Carlos Vargas (dead roster spot)

Thoughts: The Guardians are a little short in terms of experienced starting pitcher depth.  Morgan and Logan Allen have not shown they can be starters on a championship caliber team but do offer experience in an emergency.   Frankly, I don't know if the Guardians think Myers will fit better as a starter or a bullpen option but he s, on paper, along with Morris, the first options in the minors if the Indians would need an 8th starter.  Realistically, Pilkington,  Morris, Logan T. Allen and Battenfield need a little more seasoning with Morris maybe ending up this year n the bullpen.  A possible addition to the starting depth could be Trevor Stephan but his stuff seems to play better for short stints in the bullpen/arms barn.  While Vargas is on the 40-man roster he is clearly not an option as he missed the last two seasons and has never pitched above rookie ball.

Bullpen

Emmanuel Clase

James Karinchak

Trevo Stephan

Sam Hentges

Anthony Gose

Nick Sandlin

Logan Allen (if not a starter)

Tobias Myers (if not a starter)

Cody Morris (if not a starter)

Thoughts: This unit was very short even before the loss of Francisco Perez and J.C. Mejia (presumably).  Unlike in past years, I don't see any real minor league options for 2022, although some (like Justin Garza did this year) generally put themselves in the major league picture during the year.  The bullpen also lacks ANY veteran presence at all.  NONE.  With all the relievers on the free agent market I think the Guardian will be in the market for at least two and maybe three veteran relievers with some closing experience.  

Catching

Austin Hedges

Bryan Lavastida

Bo Naylor (minors)

Thoughts: This position is even thinner than the bullpen.   Lavastida is not ready and Naylor is a little further behind with the bat although he is probably closer to major league ready defenisvely.  Obvioulsy the Indians will need to sign 2 backup catchers, one for the major league roster and one for insurance on the AAA roster.  My guess is that they will go to spring training with a couple of non-roster invitees or only one if they re-sign Roberto Perez if he will agree to a $2 million dollar deal or so with significant games played incentives.  There are really no minor league options after Naylor as most of our minor league catchers are organizatonal guys.   The one other catching prospect we had, Yainer Diaz, was traded to Houston in the Myles Straw deal.  However, his skill is hitting and I don't know that he would have cracked our top 20 prospects had he not been traded. 

Infield:

First base:  

Bobby Bradley, 

Josh Naylor

Middle infielders: 

Amed Rosario, 

Andres Gimenez, 

Yu Chang, 

Owen Miller, 

Ernie Clement, 

Gabriel Arias, 

Richie Palacios 

Brayan Rocchio (minors), 

Tyler Freeman (minors), 

Jose Tena (dead roster spot)

Jose Fermin (minors, if he survives the Rule 5 draft)

Third basemen

Jose Ramirez

Nolan Jones

Johnkensy Noel (dead roster spot)

Thoughts:  The Guardians are both set up with and plagued with depth here.  They have an unsettled second base situation as well as too much ML ready depth to be supported on the 40-man roster.  In looking for bullpen help some or all of Yu Chang, Owen Miller and Ernie Clement will likely lose their roster spots and have to be DFA'd, if they are not traded.   The middle infielders who were just added to the roster probably all need more minor league seasoning.   The Guardians are set at first base where Bradley will be starting but Naylor's spot on the roster is not set as he is not a good outfielder and s only a passable first baseman.   The best scenario for the Indians is to open the season with Naylor on the 60 day DL to see if he can work himself into playing form that can help the Guardians.   Even before his injury last year he was starting to look like a last guy on the bench sort of player.  Valuable but replaceable.  For third basemen we have Ramirez, any of the middle infielders and Nolan Jones, even though Jones probably still needs half a year at AAA to finish off his development and determine, finally, what his upside is.  Noel and Tena are both dead roster space as they are so far from the majors they won't be helping the Guardians this year or even the first half of 2023.  I still would like to see what it would cost us to get Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez from Kansas City.  

Outfielders:

Myles Straw

Franmil Reyes (also the primary DH)

Bradley Zimmer

Oscar Mercado

Steven Kwan

George Valera (minors)

Oscar Gonzalez (minors, if he is not picked in the Rule 5 draft, backup DH)

Alexfri Planez (minors, if he is not picked in the Rule 5 draft)

Thoughts: The Indians need help in the outfield.   No way Zimmer and Mercado make it to spring training.  We will need one or both of their roster spots.   We will likely have to trade for or sign a veteran outfielder or two. 

OVERALL SUMMARY:

What the Indians did in adding all these guys to the roster s appropriate.   The problem with this is that we have 13 guys who have never played in the majors meaning we only have 27 guys on our roster who are likely to have a make the opening day 26-man roster meaning the front office has lots of work to do in making trades and/or signing free agents with simultaneously DFAing veterans from the end of the roster.  

Instant Analysis of Cleveland's 40-man roster moves

 Top line analysis:  The Indians did what I felt they had to do: put prospects first.  They protected 10 of their own prospects and one they acquired in a trade (Tobias Myers)

That is historic.  I mean, historic, and I commend the Indians for that.  Historic events call for historic actions.

You can nitpick the details (and I will below) but the overall impact is huge and, in my opinion, the absolute right thing to do.  These guys all have traits of future major league starters and potental all-stars.  This was not the typical Rule 5 class who project as low level major leaguers.

One nit I want to pick.  They traded Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers.   In essence, they DFA'd JC Mejia to make room for Myers.   I hate this deal.   Don't understand how Myers could be worth anything when he hasn't ever even played in the majors.   Let's look at whether Johnson, Garza, Mejia, etc. who they DFA'd today, all of whom look better on paper to me than Myers, brings back ANYTHING, let along a non-Rule 5 eligible talent like Caminero.

More later but this is the best result I could have imagined.

Championship Rosters Are Not Built In November

 I repeat: championship rosters are not built in November, at least not for major league baseball teams.

Here's another quote to think about: historic events sometimes require historic actions.

Taken together, here's what these quotes mean for the Cleveland Guardians management team as it  prepares for the 40 man roster ahead of this year's Rule 5 draft.  

I have been following the Indians/Guardians for my whole life and, as has been documented here and other places, the Guardians NEVER have had this many high quality prospects who are performing very well and are Rule 5 eligible.   NEVER.    Tyler Freeman, George Valera, Brayan Rocchio, Jose Tena, Johnkensy Noel, Richie Palacios, Bryan Lavastida (because he's a catcher who can hit), Oscar Gonzalez, Cody Morris, Konnor Pilkington and Joey Cantillo all need to be protected.   And they all deserve it...in November.  

The Guardians should truly consider, in this historic year, that they should prepare their 40 man roster to protect their best prospects NOT to prepare for the 2022 season.   There is a lot of time between now and February 1st to make deals to clear roster spots for guys who aren't on the roster right now who will be needed on the 26-man roster. in April  Now it NOT that time.   

So, I beg the Guardians management.  It's time to make historic decisions in response to this historic situation.

Protect your prospects this week.   The rest of the winter will take care of itself as you position yourself to fill your 26 man roster for next April.