Minor League Rule 5 Draft Day Post

 OK, baseball fans.   Today's the big day>  It's...drum roll please...the Minor League Rule 5 Draft (crowd goes wild).  The first draft for the Cleveland Guardians!!!

UPDATE: 2021 RULE 5 MINOR LEAGUE DRAFT RESULTS AND ANALYSIS:

Total players selected: 50 (most in at least the last 10 years)

Guardians players lost: RHP Dakody Clemmer, AA Reliever (Nationals)

Guardians players gained:  Erik Sabrowski, LHP (taken from Padres); Brett Daniels, RHP (Astros)

Instant Analysis:  The Indians lost an intriguing RHP in Dakody Clemmer who was developing slowly into a ML relief prospect.   They got back 2 pitchers.  Erk Sabrowski and Brett Daniels.   Clemmer was drafted in 2016 and so this was his 3rd Rule 5 draft and after 2022, will be able to be a 6-year free agent.  Sabrowski and Daniels, on the other hand, were both drafted in 2018, meaning this was their first Rule 5 draft and won't be eligible for minor league free agency until after the 2024 season.  While I love Clemmer we have a lot of minor league relievers like him.   Looking back over the years I would rate Clemmer as one of the best players we have lost in the minor league Rule 5 in the last 10 years.

Both Sabrowski and Daniels strike out more than a batter an inning and each have, in their own way, some upside which can more adequately be developed if they stay in the organization through their entire first 6+ years.  

The drafting of 50 players in this draft is not surprising to me as, just like in the ML Rule 5 draft, there was a surplus of prospects whose advancement was hindered by no 2020 season.   I am not exactly sure how the reduction in teams in the minors this year impacted this draft but my kneejerk feeling is that it had no impact as teams only would have cut players who would not have been drafted in this draft.  One way the reduction in teams may have helped there be more players drafted this year is that the reduction in teams forced organizations (including the Indians) to push their prospects up to higher levels which may have given other organizations a better idea of how players projected.

The good news for the Indians is that guys like Marcos Gonzalez who might have been on the bubble for making the Columbus protected list, must have been protected.  The Indians had a lot of exposure here with the backup of prospects in their system so I think it is a really good thing they only lost one player, especially since they left two spots open on their Columbus reserve list instead of protecting 2 more prospects.  The fact that the draft went to the 5th round also could have resulted in more Indians prospects being rafted but that didn't happen.  

BACKGROUND

As the draft gets started lets look at some stats.  In the last 10 minor league Rule 5 draft we have:

2020 - 43 players drafted  = Indians lost 0, Indians picked up 1

2019 - 42 players selected - Indians lost 3, Indians picked up 2 

2018 - 42 players selected - Indians lost 3, Indians picked up 2

2017 - 43 players selected - Indians lost 2, Indians picked up 1

2016 - 39 players selected - Indians lost 3, Indians picked up 0

2015 - 49 players selected (AAA & AA phases) - Indians lost 2 - Indians picked up 1

2014 - 30 players selected (AAA&AA phases) - Indians lost 0, Indians picked up 1

2013 - 36 players selected (AAA&AA phases) - Indians lost 0, Indians picked up 0

2012 - 27 players selected (AAA&AA phases) - Indians lost 0, Indians picked up 0

2011 - 25 players selected (AAA&AA phases) - Intins lost 2, Indians picked up 0

Over the 10 years here are the players gained and lost by the Indians:

GAINED:  Chris Roller, Daniel Young, Jhon Peluffo, Wilson Garcia, Yapson Gomez, Robert Orlan, Rian Moran, Delvy Francisco

LOST: Wilbis Santiago, Jose Colina, Christopher Cespedes, Matt Esparza, Hector Figueroa, Anthony Miller, Junior Soto, Ivan Castillo, Josh Fitzgerald, Trevor Frank, Grant Sides, Nick Maronde, Marty Popham, Donnie Webb

As you can see, the guys we picked had essentially no impact on our ML team and the guys we lost, many of who are stll n the majors, have had minor impacts, at best, in the majors so far.  

Yet, in summary, it looks like we gave up more than we got back which is, frankly, a sign of minor league depth more than "missing" on some guy who went on to be a star.

OK,  will update this post at completion of the draft.

Minor League Rule 5 Draft

Work stoppages really make it hard to find anything to write about.  The one advantage that MLB has given us is that all things minor league will continue.   Thus, although there will not be a major league rule 5 draft tomorrow, the AAA phase wlll go on as scheduled.  Here is a quick reference guide to this draft:

• Teams can protect up to 38 players on their AAA roster that are not already on their major league 40-man roster  
• All other minor leaguers who are Rule 5 eligible in a team's minor league system can be drafted away from a team.   
• Drafted players are lost for good and, I think, at a cost of about $15,000.
• Very few major leaguers come out of the minor league portion.  These are normally just organizational players.  

So, the key to this draft is to use your 38 players wisely.  Looking at the Guardians minor leaguers who would be eligible for this draft, here is a list of guys I would protect:

1. Robert Broom

2. Justin Garza

3. Shane McCarthy

4. Sergio Morillo

5. Juan Mota

6. Aaron Pinto

7. Thomas Ponticelli

8. Jerson Ramirez

9. Joey Cantillo

10. Kirk McCarty

11. Adam Scott

12. Tanner Tully

13. Matt Turner

14. Gavin Collins

15. Jonathon Lopez

16. Sandy Leon

17. Andres Melendez

18. Micael Ramirez

19. Mike Rivera

20. Aaron Bracho

21. Jose Fermin

22. Marcos Gonzalez

23.Daniel Aguilar

24. Will Benson

25. Oscar Gonzalez

26. Quentin Holmes

27. Daniel Johnson

28. Alexfri Planez

29. Jonathon Rodriguez

That's 29 guys and doesn't begin to address my ignorance about the prospect status of the 48 remaining prospects eligible for the AAA rule 5 draft, many of whom are Latin minor leaguers in the lower minors.

So, tomorrow will be interesting.   I predict we will have more action in this draft than usual and it may focus more on guys near the top of the minors.

One last point: just like the major league portion of the Rule 5 the rosters are set before all information is in.   Sometimes guys show out right before the draft on their winter league team.   Maybe their organization didn't think much of the guy but then he puts himself on the radar with his wnter league perfromance.   Keep an eye on Daniel Aguilar who is tearing up the Columbian winter league and who the Indians may have overlooked when they put together their 38-man AAA protected list.   If he isn't on that list, there is a large chance he could be drafted tomorrow.

Random Thoughts for a Sunday

(1)  I think the Guardians should be signing more minor league free agents and gathering our minor leaguers not on the 40-man for some off-season work.  I don't know how much money we are saving by this work stoppage but anything we are saving we should be putting back into getting our minor leaguers ready for the 2022 season.  I think the team that does their minor league signings right now and works with their best minor leaguers right now under controlled conditions is the team that will get the biggest bump once the season starts.

As an example I saw a video of Daniel Espino, our stud pitching prospectd,  working out this off-season in Puerto Rico.  He was doing some really stupid-looking box jumps to a really high height.   It looked like a season-ending leg injury waiting to happen.   In looking at this I questioned why our best prospects were doing stupid crap at home when they could have been working out in Arizona under our best strength and conditioning personnel.  

Get after it, Guardians!  Use your time and resources wisely.

(2) Defectons at Ohio State football are becoming worrisome.  You just can't over-recruit like the Buckeyes are.   They have lost two stud quarterbacks.   They have lost one of the best receivers in the country in Jameson Williams.   A team with this many defensive problems should not be focusing one second on training other teams' stud players of the future.   Craig Young and guys like him...I get it.  But don't lose top prospects in the country after they come to your school because you over-recruit the position and guys don't think that have a legitimate path to become starters. 

(Speaking Buckeyes football,  doubt that Olave and Wilson will play in the bowl game.   With what's going on at Ohio State right now I wonder how many other seniors or juniors who think they might go to the draft this year will opt out of this year's bowl game for the Buckeyes.

(4) Isn't it crazy that a young team like the Cavs can be doing this well without their best, coming in to this season, player?  I think they would need Sexton to make a deep run in the playoffs but even without him they could still make the playoffs.  Think they would get a low seed and get bounced early but getting there is the goal for this group in their first year together.

(5) Baker Mayfield is a mess.  The Browns are a mess.   Instead of worrying about how the rest of this season plays out we should be worrying about next season and locking up guys who we want here next year.  

(6) You gotta love Cleveland State basketball but they have Oklahoma State and Duke, both away, the next two games.   I am thinking they go into the Kent State game 6-4 and on a 2-game losing streak.  -One other point about the Vikings and the Mid- Continent.   Experts said at the beginning of the year that Wright State was their competition.   A close look at the teams in their league shows that the team the Vikings should fear the most right now is Oakland.  They have lots of good non-conference wins and close losses so far.   I love watching the Vikings on ESPN+ but in a conference like theirs it only takes one conference tournament loss and, no matter how good your regular season, you could be sitting at home very easily.   It looks like Oakland  is the kind of team that do that to the Vikings.  So beware!

(7) Don't bet against Chris Holtmann turning the OSU basketball team into a national contender this year.   They looked very thin at the beginning of the year but they are looking deeper and deeper each game.  They will have to find much more scoring behind Liddell but more guys are stepping forward who I think can do that.  Holtmann always seems to take teams and get much more out of them then  think he should.   I think, barrring injuries, he should be able to do that this year, too.

Were the Guardians Idiots?

 OK, a lot of the people who follow this stuff were begging for the Indians to protect their top prospects from the Rule 5 draft.   This was a historic year n that the Guardians had so many prospects that needed to be protected.   Some were good prospects who likely will play extensively in the majors in 2022 (Kwan, Morris, Pilkington, Myers).   Some were high level, maybe top 100 in baseball prospects who project to be above average ML starters and are not that far away from the majors but not likely ready by opening day 2022, maybe not even opening day 2023 (Freeman, Valera, Rocchio, Tena, Lavastida).   Some were such good prospects that they had to be protected even though they were YEARS away from being ML-ready (Noel).

In the background was always the looming end of the CBA and the proposed lockout and stoppage of transactions.

Every team had to know this could mean that the Rule 5 draft could be postponed and that postponement might become a cancellaton if the work stoppage dragged on into spring training.

I am pretty safe in predicting that someone, somewhere, will call into question the Guardans thought process on this.

Should they have assumed the Rule 5 draft would be cancelled and not protected these prospects?

Maybe they should have protected less prospects and not had to give away fringe guys like Harold Ramirez, JC Mejia and Scott Moss for nothing?

Monday morning quarterbacks will likely bring up these questions and, for what it's worth, here are my answers:

1. Should the Guardians, knowing the work stoppage was a possibility, protected fewer of these prospects?

Look, your prospects are your prospects.   Most teams have multiple prospects on their roster and even multiple veterans on their roster who would not even make our roster.  Multiple guys.  

Right now the Rule 5 draft is postponed indefnitely.  It might still happen.   The Indians did the exact right thing.  They protected the best players in their system, major and minor leaguers, who needed to be protected.    If it never happens it never happens.   Hopefully under the new CBA they retire this dinosaur instead of keeping it and talking about the handful of players over the years who benefitted from this draft, forgetting totally about the players whose career it almost killed.   Even one of the stars of the 2020 Rule 5 draft, Akil Badoo, was thinking about quitting baseball when, after tanking, he was sent to the minors.  

But the Guardians were right in keeping the prospects on the 40 man roster because this is about protecting the players you would least like to lose and who have the highest likelihood of being picked and never coming back.  

2. Should the Guardians have jumped into the free agent frenzy like so many of their competitors did?

There may be a reason most of the rest of baseball was transaction happy in the weeks leading up to the work stoppage but it escapes me.  The Guardians did exactly what they should have.  Playng the waiting game.  

Look, they will likely have to make trades to clear out some roster space.  I mean, right now they don't have enough pitching or quality outfielders to start next season.  I mean, Mercado in left, Straw in center and Zimmer in right just won't cut it.   A bullpen without replacements for Shaw and Parket just won't cut it.  We don't have a lot of roster fluff to DFA.  The only way to clear spots on this roster is to trade some prospects.  Yes, you could DFA Logan Allen and one or both of Zimmer and Mercado but, after that, the roster is stacked.    Maybe Carlos Vargas as he will run out of options before making it to the majors.  

This may actually work in their favor.   I am thinking that guys like Juan Soto, who the Nationals want to sign long-term, might be more available after the stoppage than they are now since they will move closer to free agency (albeit only slightly) and further away from the time when extensions are normally hammered out.  Plus, maybe the Nationals want to go into a rebuild and they are just waiting to see if there will be a salary floor.   Trading an $8.5 million a year player won't help them get to $100 million in salary, will it?  

3.  Will this lockout mean the Rule 5 will be cancelled altogether?  

Highly unlikely.   The players like the Rule 5 and so my guess is that it stays.  But, it might not happen this year as part of the compromise towards a new CBA.   The players might be able to throw a one year hiatus onto the altar.  Time will tell.

Calling out Max Scherzer

 I know, I know.   Don't kll the messenger.  

But I had to respond to his comments:

"Specifically, frst and foremost, we see a competion problem and how teams are behaving because of certain rules....Adjustments have to be made to bring up the competition.  As players, that's critical to us to have a highly competitive league, and when we don't have that, we have issues."

Let's unravel Mr. Scherzer's words for their true meaning.  We have been down this road with the MLBPA before. Basically they see the problem as this:

While the best players are getting paid, the middle-of-the-road players are not getting paid and, in many cases (See Bryan Shaw) are having to accept low-end free agent contracts or even minor league deals.

Why is this happening? Well, the teams that are not going to be competitive don't feel compelled to sign these lesser free agents.  Why, they are not going to be competitive any way.  Why not save the money for the draft or for international free agents and just go with ML mnimum rookies?  You might even be bad enough to get the first overall pick in the next draft (cough. tank. cough).  

In Mr. Scherzer's mind one of the worst words in the baseball lexicon is R-E-B-U-I-L-D.  My guess is that two of the teams he would like disbanded are the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland A's, followed closely thereafter by the Cleveland Indians.  Basically those teams are being successful without going all New York Mets on the free agent market.  

What to do? We MAKE the teams be competitive.  What does that do for the teams?  Nothing.  But what does that do for the players?

1. Competition is created for the upper level free agents (if you are forced to be 'competitive' why not go big?).  The more competition, the more those players get paid.

2. Failing signing the top free agents (as the Marlins and Pirates wlll likely to be) they will be forced to sign, and likely overpay, for players in the next two levels of free agents.   Those players won't make those teams competitive but it will make those middling free agents richer.

How to we force teams into competing:

1. Put in a salary floor that teams have to meet.

2. Disincentivize teams from tanking by putting in a lottery system for the top draft choices

There are probably other measures they want, as well, but you get the point.   Mr. Owner, we are going to make you spend more money so our players get paid.   The Robbie Rays of the world will get paid even if they never have a Cy Young season.  Maybe not as much but they will still get paid.  

The problem is that owners are already paying mediocre talent too much money (see Steve Matz's 4 year $44 million contract with the Cardinals).  But at least Matz had SOME level of performance.   

What the upshot of his proposal is will be that teams like the Guardians will have to pay Bryan Shaw and Blake Parker MILLIONS just so they can say, on paper, that they are "competitive".

That is why I am calling bullshit on Mr. Scherzer.  You don't give a crap about players actually earning their pay.   You want them to get paid even if they are mediocre.  You don't want teams to look at their minor league system and say 'Crap, if that is all I can get for $5 million a year in year in free agency I will just give that job to a rookie who has more potential and is much cheaper.'  

But Mr. Scherzer doesn't want to allow teams to be competitive by doing more with less.   He wants them to pay more and not do any better in the standings, in essence just taking any profits the owners make and giving it back to the players, whether or not they deserve it.

Now,  I can pretty much guarantee you that this isn't the worst union in the world.  But I can say, without a doubt, that this is the most unscrupulous union of millionaires that has ever existed in the world.  In fact if a person's position in the world was based on their worth nstead of their stature within an organization, the members of the MLBPA would have already been indicted for collusion and price fixing.   But since they are 'employees' they can call themselves a union and get away with extorting money.

Mr. Scherzer, you and the consummate ass in this situation.  Take your millions and go, sit down and shut up.  Or, more benificially, find out how to raise the salary of minor leaguers, raise the salary of ML rookies and second year players and remove the awful Rule 5 draft.   Those are worthy causes.  Much more worthy than finding ways to get mediocre and broken down veterans more money than they have been shown over the last 6 years to be worth.

The end.

My screaming into the wind about the CBA

 So, we are approaching the end of the current CBA with the prospective of the lockout if a new CBA is not finalized by Wednesday at 11:59 pm.

So I am going to put my two cents in even you I may be the only one who hears my screaming.

1. Luxury tax ceiling - I am in agreement with the rumors that this should be higher.  I would say a 10% bump would be reasonable.  

2. Increase of teams in the playoffs to 14.  Agan, a great idea as it keeps more teams in contention longer.

3. Lottery for top draft picks - Again, I like this.  Teams shouldn't be incentivized to tank.  It works for the NBA and it would work here.

4. Institution of a universal DH.  Great idea.  

So far so good, right?  OK, let's look at some of the things I don't agree with and how we could fix them.

A. The MLBPA has long wanted a salary floor.   This would mean that teams would be expected to spend a certain amount (say $100 million) on salaries each year.   The result would generally be that teams would have to sign enough free agents and/or pay their existng players enough money to reach this threshold.  My counter proposal is this:

    1. Institute a 'soft' salary floor.  That is, teams must COMMIT $100 million in salary each year.  That would include offers made to players under their control (not free agent offers).   Thus if the Indians offered Shane Bieber $100 million for 5 years that $20 million for 2022 would count towards that $100 million floor.  Beiber does not have to accept that offer but, nevertheless, the Indians have made a good faith offer that, if accepted, would lock them into paying him long-term and lock Bieber into being an Indian for a long time.

    2. Along with #1, I would move the trigger to arbitration to 2 years, eliminating the super 2 category and making arbitration more uniform.  I have long believed that good players like Bieber should be paid early.  I would also eliminate arbitration hearings and replace that whole process with a performance-based salary system for these players that would kick in after their first 2 years.

    3, I would increase the starting salary in the majors to $750,000 a year.  Teams that want to stack their roster with players with less service time would be disincentivized to do so as it would cost them almost $200,000 more per player on their roster to use rookies.   This would also benefit the rookies.

Let me be clear about one thing: the idea of a hard floor is a non-starter.  As I have seen it expressed by agents and the MLBPA, this is just a ploy to get teams to overspend on mediocre free agents who are being left out of the lucrative free agent market.  These players are being left out because they are not good enough for the money they are asking for.   Also, the soft floor might, indeed, cost the best free agents money as they would likely not hit the open market as soon.   But I don't give a crap about that.  This floor should be an incentive for teams to pay their homegrown players earlier and more than they do now.  Making arbitration sooner would prompt that to happen, as well.

Small market teams should use the soft floor to invest in their own players, not to fill the pockets of mediocre free agents or create bidding wars to make the best free agents more highly paid.  

B. As mentioned before on this blog, the Rule 5 draft should be eliminated.  It should be replaced by the following:

    1. Players signed before their 19th birthday would become minor league free agents if not placed on the 40 man roster by the December 1st before their 24th birthday.

    2. Players signed before their 23rd birthday would become minor league free agents if not placed on a 40-man roster before the December 1st before their 25th birthday.

Latino kids would get the full benefit of up to 8 years of development and US college kids would get 3-4 years of development time, appropriate as they are more physically mature and more highly trained.

C. There would no longer be a 4th option year granted for any player.   Eliminating this would allow players to reach minor league free agency sooner (27 for younger players, 28 for older players) even if they were placed on the 40 man roster at the end of the periods described above.

D. Teams losing top free agents should be granted a supplemental pick after the 5th round of the draft plus an addition of $250,000 to their bonus pool above what it should be based on all their draft slots in the first 10 rounds, even if they did not make a qualifying offer.   If they made a qualifying offer they should get both the supplemental pick in the existing agreement AND the supplemental 5th round pick plus the bonus pool bump.  This proposal would not seriously impact the nature of the draft but would give the teams losing quality players to free agency something more to help them work with to rebuild more quickly.    Plus it would be more money in the pool to give to younger players.

E. As part of the lottery process.   All teams that failed to make the playoffs would be allowed to sign draftees in rounds 11-20 for up to $200,000 with it not counting against their bonus pool cap.  This, again, allows the poorer teams compete better by spending more on the draft which, as we all know, if the poor man's way of developing big league talent.  

F. I am for NOT for an international draft.  The international draft cap works fine right now and I would even strengthen the penalties for violating this cap.  

These are just some of my comments.   I honestly feel that the agents and the highly paid players should set the framework for these changes but that the have-not teams should fill in the details.  The goal should still be to level the playing field as much as we can without true tanking going on.

Handicapping the chances of our Rule 5-eligible prospects actually being selected in the Rule 5

 Two things to say before we start this discussion:

1. My ability to predict which Indians' prospects will be selected in the Rule 5 draft, excluding a few, rare no-brainer exceptions), ranges between poor and pathetic so take what you read below with a grain of salt.

2. If the collective bargaining agreement is not agreed upon the word is that all transactions (and the Rule 5 draft would likely qualify as a transaction) would be frozen so the conversation below may become moot at that point.

Here goes:

Oscar Gonzalez - A guy who, at 23, hit 31 HRs between AA and AAA after not having a minor league season in 2020 is way too hard to resist.  Yes he has warts: bad defense, very bad plate discipline.   But he hits and he hits HRs.   Gven that maybe all the teams in baseball this coming year, if there is a baseball season in 2022, could have the DH, I think there is close to 100% chance he gets selected.  Not as the first pick overall because pitching is more valuable than hitting.  But he will at least be a second round pick for a team making two picks (see Pirates, for example, or maybe even the Nationals)

Aaron Bracho - In the face of guys in his international class excelling, he struggled.  I don't know if it was by design to hide him or because that's where he fits, but he played a lot of first base and third base and no shortstop and Bracho will not hit like a first baseman or third baseman if he even makes the majors.  While he is the top prospect by ranking available among Guardian prospects, he is one of the least likely to get selected (10%) and, if he gets selected, one of the least likely to stick with the drafting team.  He is also one of my picks to have a breakout MINOR LEAGUE season in 2022.

Joey Cantillo - He is an interesting case because he is a relatively highly ranked prospect but not really, before his injury this year, even a top 10 prospect in the Indians system.  He doesn't have any high minors experience and missed the whole year this year, essentially.  He might be able to be stashed a couple of months on a 60-day DL based on his recovery from this year's injury but here is a classc example of the team drafting him looking more at his prospect status than his true ability to stick in the majors this year.   20% chance he gets drafted.  As far as sticking, TJ McFarland comes to mind as a comp but that was when LOOGYs were a thing which went away with the 3 batter minimum.

Juan Mota - I would say 50% chance he gets drafted.   Although he is the real-life wild thing he pitched extensively in AAA and can get it up there at 100 mph.  He is the perfect Rule 5 lottery ticket and I can see any number of rebuilding teams taking a shot at him.  If Luis Oviedo can last a whole year I am thinking Mota can.

Jerson Ramirez - 10% chance.  He is still too far down in the minors to see if his stuff will even play in the majors.

Aaron Pinto - Based on his AFL numbers, no chance he gets drafted.

Adam Scott - 50%.  Being left-handed and given that so many teams are using openers, some for most of their rotation,  I see him as a great opener or innings-eating garbage time reliever for a rebuilding team.  He pitched just enough in 2021 to make teams forget he was injured most of the year and to keep teams from finding warts in his game that might cause them to avoid him come Rule 5 draft tme.

Matt Turner - Too young, very bad in the AFL.  0% chance he gets drafted.

Andres Melendez - 5% chance he gets drafted.   He is an intriguing prospect but too far down the minors for a team to keep him even as a 3rd catcher.

Jose Fermin - In a vacuum I might say that this versatile, hustling infielder with a ridiculoowly low strikeout rate might get selected.  But you have to realize, as good as he looks to us, there a likely to be dozens of more intriguing middle infielders with better power, better speed, etc. than Fermin has.   While he looks good to us I don't see him standing out to other teams.  25% chance of getting drafted.

Marcos Gonzalez - Hidden away at AA the same way Bracho was hidden away at high A, I don't think Gonzalez gets drafted but, along with Bracho, he is one of my breakout prospects in the minor leagues for the Indians next year.  15% chance he gets drafted,

Will Benson - 5% chance he gets drafted.   He has too many holes in his game and the projection on him is still 2 more solid minor league seasons until he can contribute in the majors.   I don't see any team drafting him as they know he will be a 5th wheel next year and they might have to run out of options on him before he is ready to stick in the majors.  

Alexfri Planez - In a normal Rule 5 some team might take a chance on him.  However, every team was in the same boat as the Guardians with prospects whose development was stunted due to the lack of the 2020 minor league season.   So, instead of becoming an intrguing prospect some team takes a lottery-ticket try with, he is just another intriguing prospect too far away from the majors to waste $100,000 on..  15% chance of getting drafted but another of my picks to break out (maybe a Valera-like breakout) in 2022.

Jonathon Rodriguez - He was young for his draft class and teams will pass on him because he is so young and so far away from the majors, even if he lasts the season with his drafting team.  Anthony Santander was a better prospect and look how long it REALLY took him to settle in.   15% chance gets drafted.

Justin Garza - Yes, he will be eligible.   But why would a team select him when they could have had him for essentially nothing on the waiver wire?

Daniel Johnson - Ditto to Garza.

There are always guys who are drafted who are head scratchers at the time (TJ McFarland comes to mind.  Who would have ever thought he was going to stick that year with the Orioles or have the career that he has had.  So someone else on our list might get drafted.   Even Sandy Leon is eligible, for what that's worth.  

It will be interesting but, if we lost two who didn't come back last year (Tom and Oviedo), expect to lose at least 2 (100% chance) and maybe 3 (50% chance), 4 (25% chance) or 5(10% chance) this year.