Let's start off by saying what every 'expert' says about a draft. It's impossible to determine whether a draft is a good one for 5 years. The problem with that axiom is that if you get to the end of that 5 year period, and you are a limited-resource team AND that draft stunk, you are probably struggling to put a good team on the field.
So, while you can't FULLY tell how a draft will turn out for 5 years, you can make some pretty clear statements about how the draft will impact your team in the future.
People also will tell you that teams should draft the best available player and not worry about need. While that is true, there needs to be context there. Drafting a good college pitcher who should get to and be impactful in the majors in a couple of years has to be compared to drafting a better HS pitching prospect who will take 5 years to establish themselves in the majors and whose group (HS pitchers) have a historically greater chance of failure.
With that being said, the Guardians started the draft with a number of realities
1. Their ML starting pitching is razor thin
2. Their starting pitching depth in the minors is almost non-existent with one real SP prospect, Braylon Doughty, and he is barely starting AA. There's no one else who even can be considered a real prospect right now, based on the combination of age and minor league performance.
3. The areas of strength and depth in their minor league system are:
a. Catchers
b. Outfielders (both contact and power)
c. Middle Infielders
d. HS pitching prospects in the low minors
So entering the draft there were clear areas of need and areas of strength where any prospect added would have to leapfrog to the top the prospect strength for that position.
So let's see what they did in the draft:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Guardians had a chance to fill the pipeline with what they needed, starting pitching close to the majors. Instead, the top 3 talents they selected were one college pitcher who needs fixing and two HS pitchers, one of whom is a lottery ticket. To pay for that lottery ticket they had to spend 3 draft picks in the top 10 on low talent, cheap college seniors, meaning that lottery ticket actually will cost them a lot of money and cost them FOUR picks, instead of one. Besides those 2 picks, the Guardians drafted 2 college slap hitting OFers, a college catcher who doesn't leapfrog really anyone on their catcher depth chart, a college firstbaseman without power (after drafting 2 of those in the top 10 rounds last year. and, including the college seniors drafted to save money in rounds 8-10, 12 low level college pitchers with little to no chance of ever playing in the majors, if you compare those picks to similar picks from the last 2 drafts.
Draft grade: B- if they are able to maximize Peterson and Schmidt and Sims make the majors; If they can't get those 3 to their potential, this draft is a D-, as there is very little of substance left after those 3 unless some amazing development occurs in players where that wasn't expected. NOTE: this is not what you wanted to hear with the bad draft of 2025 and the lack of starting pitcher depth in this system. Resource-limited teams like the Guardians need good drafts that keep the line moving in terms of getting prospects to the majors who are impactful.
ROUND-BY-ROUND ANALYSIS
#19 - The Guardians drafted a college pitcher, Liam Peterson. Peterson has lots of talent but hasn't translated that to performance in 2026. They are counting on their pitching development group to make the changes necessary to turn talent into performance. To me, he is the 2026 version of Jace Laviolette, a gamble on making changes that will bring the college player to the majors very quickly if they are successful. If they were going for a college pitcher, they had a chance to draft Hunter Dietz or Taylor Rabe for current performance and future projectability and Cameron Flukey if they wanted a college pitcher who was more highly rated over the winter but had injury and performance issues in 2026
#59 - The Guardians went with a HS pitching prospect, Logan Schmidt. Schmidt was a small bargain (45th ranked player) vs his draft slot (59) but, as a HSer, will cost much more than the slot assigned for that draft slot and will be further away from the majors than a college pitcher. Ryan Peterson (#86) who was actually seleccted at #71. The upside AND risk for Schmidt is great but this Peterson has good upside and a much quicker path to the majors. Schmidt is not a bad pick by the Guardians but, given that Peterson would make the majors at least 2 years earlier and have a great chance of making it at all, I would have gone with the greater need, SP closer to the majors.
#95 - The Guardians selected slap hitting Tre Broussard, a guy with great speed, a good defensive centerfielder but with little power. They basically drafted Petey Halpin part deux.
#123 - The Guardians selected Kade Lewis, a college thirdbaseman who will likely end up at first base. He has very little power. Think of CJ Kayfus but without the athleticism to play in the OF.
#155 - The Guardians selected Lucas Moore, another Petey Halpin clone.
#184 - The Guardians selected Deiten LaChance, a college catcher who doesn't surpass another on the current catching depth chart, falling just below Jacob Cozart. Possibly they feel this increase in depth will allow them to trade Cozart or, more likely, Cooper Ingle.
#213 - Savion Sims - The Guardians selected an expensive unicorn lottery ticket. By that I mean he has a huge fastball with good extension but little control or quality secondary pitches. Whatever length of time it takes to get Schmidt to the majors add 1.5 years to that for Sims. Basically, he may not make the majors until Jose's contract expires, if then, as he is the classic HS RHP who flares out so often in the minors.
Picks 243 -603 - People may try to point to some redeeming value for these last 13 picks but Guardians' draft history tells me these guys are just organizational filler with maybe one even sniffing the big leagues. Basically, a waste of 13 picks. Any player here a match for a similar, recently drafted player. For exzmple, Ben Cleary is just Tyrese Turner. Who, you say? Exactly.
I can't tell you how disappointed I am in this draft. I will have my shadow draft later tonight but it looks a lot like my last mock draft. that I posted on Friday.
Look, if you are Cleveland and if this draft goes south you just don't recover from it since you can't go out and buy players to offset your draft and international signing mistakes in both selection and strategy..
Hey, at least the ML teams is in first place. Maybe they can keep this going in future years with more AAAA signings and bargain basement free agents to augment their current, young core.
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