OK, there is a lot of buzz about who the Guardians are rumored to be taking early in the 2026 draft. Like everything else, the Guardians play this stuff close to the vest so its hard to invest much angst at this point. But...
Any post by me about what they have done in the recent past will create strawmen which may or may not be accurate.
I get that.
And plans change if other teams make surprise picks or have the same plan as you do, but with earlier selections in each round. I get that, too.
Nevertheless, when I hear that the Guardians are going to leaning toward a particular demographic, I have to ask myself how that worked for them in the recent past.
I have heard are that the Guardians will be looking at college and HS bats. The former may include power hitters and contact hitters and the latter is leaning more toward power hitters. Still, the consensus is that they could be looking at bats instead of arms.
So, looking back, let's see how targeting a particular demographic has worked for them recently, using just data from the first 5 rounds, which is when a team is most likely to get the players they covet the most, looking at the highest level they have played A LOT at:
2020
1 (23) - Preston Tucker - HS Hitter - released
CBA - Tanner Burnes Collete Pitcher - released
2 - Logan Allen College Pitcher - Majors
3 - Petey Halpin HS Hitter - AAA (ML cup of coffee)
4 - Milan Tolentino HS Hitter - AAA
5 - Mason Hickman College Pitcher - released
2021
1 (23) Gavin Williams College Pitcher - Majors
2 - Doug Nikhazy College Pitcher - AAA (ML cup of coffee)
CBB Tommy Mace - Collet Pitcher - AAA
3 - Jake Fox - HS Hitter = AA
4 - Ryan Webb - Collete Pitcher - AAA
5 - Tanner Bibee - College Pitcher - Majors
2022
1 (18) - Chase DeLauter - College Power Hitter - Majors
CBA - Justin Campbell - College Pitchers - AAA
2 - Parker Messick - College Pitcher - Majors
3 - Joe Lampe - College Slap Hitter - AA
4 - Nate Furman - College Slap Hitter - AA
5 - Guy Lipscomb - College Slap Hitter = AA
2023
1 (23) - Ralph Velazquez HS Hitter - AAA
2 - Alex Clemmey HS Pitcher - High A
CBB - Andrew Walters College Pitcher - AAA (ML cup of coffee)
3 - CJ Kayfus - College slap hitter - AAA (ML cup of coffee)
4 - Cooper Ingle - College slap hitter - AAA (ML cup of coffee)
5 - Christian Knapczyk - College slap hitter - AA
2024
1 (1) - Travis Bazzana - College Power Hitter - Majors
CBA - Braylon Doughty - HS Pitcher - A+ (AA cup of coffee)
2 - Jacob Cozart - College Hitter - AA
3 - Joey Oakie - HS Pitcher - Low A
4 - Rafe Schlesinger - College Pitcher - High A
5 - Aiden Minor - College Pitcher - Low A
2025
1 (20) - Jace Laviolette - College power hitter - High A
2 - Dean Curley = College Hitter - High A
CBB - Aaron Walton - College Hitter - High A
CBB - Will Hynes - HS Pitcher - Rookie
3 - Nolan Schubart - College Power Hitter - High A
4 - Luke Hill - College Hitter - AA
5 - Riley Nelson - College Hitter - Low A
SUMMARY
Here are the demographics for these 6 drafts, with my interpretation of their success which will obviously be based on less data in 2025 than in 2020
1. The Guardians, except for 2024, have normally drafted in the high teens, low 20s, in each round,
2. The Guardians have had the following success with each demographic above:
a. College Pitchers - 13 drafted, 6 'successes' (Allen, Williams, Bibee, Walters, Messick and, yes, Campbell), 3 possibles
b. HS Hitters - 4 drafted, 1 success (Velazquez), 2 possibles (Halpin, Tolentino)
c. College slap hitters - 7 drafted, 2 successes (Kayfus, Ingle)
d. College power/overall hitters - 8 drafted (5 in 2025), 2 successes (DeLauter, Bazzana), 6 possibles
e. HS Pitchers = 4 drafted, 1 trending toward success (Doughty), 2 question marks
Looking back in these 6 drafts the Guardians have had pretty good, albeit not perfect success drafting college pitchers. They have also had decent MINOR LEAGUE success drafting HS pitchers early, but this is a very tough demographic in terms of % chance of success. They have drafted 4 HS hitters and only Velazquez looks to have a decent chance of ML success. Just like HS pitchers, HS hitters are a tough demographic, even more risky than HS pitchers. Finally, they are pretty bad at drafting college contact hitters with only Ingle and, to a lesser extent, Kayfus, having a chance to be any more than organizational players.
CONCLUSIONS
For me, the conclusion is simple. While they have drafted some successes in each of these categories, they have had the most success drafting college pitchers. Aside from anecdotal success, they have been unsuccessful drafting college or HS hitters after the first round. Finally, HS pitchers take so long to develop it is impossible to look at their recently drafted HS pitchers and see which ones will eventually make the majors, let alone have ML success. The point here is that if the Guardians are saying we should draft HS power hitters because we drafted Velazquez and look at how that owrked, it would really be troubline to me because I view Ralphy as more of an outlier, good for our farm system but bad to build a future draft strategy around.
I am also not into looking at what the strength of the draft is and leaning into that. While that sounds good on paper, in reality that just would get you a great prospect at a position where you are stacked. For example, I love Daniel Jackson of Georgia Tech but I would not think of drafting yet another catcher in an organization deep with catching when I could get similar quality of players at positions of need.
Looking at the minors, the Guardians have a good pipeline of hitters but have very few pitching prospects. Given the window for this team, the only thing that makes sense for me is drafting college pitchers early with one HS flyer pitcher and, if the opportunity arises, drafting one power bat, but not in the first round.
I know I have been harping on this all winter but the Guardians are good at drafting and developng college pitchers. They also have a need for pitchers who will get to the majors quickly and that, again, is college pitchers. While the 2026 draft is not strong in college pitching there ARE quality college pitchers out there and I think the above data shows that we should be drafting mostly college pitchers in the 2026 draft. Going away from that demographic could lead to slow developing prospects who will not be ready in this window or who, due to their demographics, have a huge chance of failure. Yes, grabbing for the brass ring is nice, but for an organization like Cleveland that counts on their prospects, it is generally better to not draft high risk players.
No comments:
Post a Comment