As the 2026 draft is about to begin I am doing what has become a yearly tradition for me: a live blog.
Before we start here are some general thoughts:
1. Draft picks should not be traded. If you are a Cleveland fan of all their teams all I have to do is mention two names: Ted Stepien and DeShaun Watson. Teams, especially CB draft choice teams should NEVER be allowed to trade draft picks. Non-CB teams should only be allowed to trade draft picks for the next draft and only draft picks from rounds 11-20.
2. We need to eliminate the ML R5 draft. When you draft a guy, you should get get the entire length of his control, including the time before he can become a minor league free agent.
3. There are two basic draft strategies, quantity and quality. The former relies on cost-saving picks and, recently, even obtaining CB picks to generate a large later round bonus pool for more flyer picks who require overslot bonuses. The quality approach involves drafting the best player available, no matter the bonus demand. It is what you could refer to as grabbing the brass ring.
4. Watch the Guardians, maybe not in the first round, but overall to see if they are going cheap. They have the bonus pool to go for ONE big HS flyer. Whether it is Waechter, Frishkorn or even Thome, they should go for one of these guys.
5. If you see a draft pick delayed, it may have to do with pre-draft decisions. If a guy has dropped and that team didn't anticipate that player being there, they might be on the phone negotiating to make sure they can sign that player. If they can't agree on the bonus, they will go a different direction and that player who has dropped, will be talking to the next team interested in him.
6. I see so many college baseball games being streamed now, don't we think it is possible that AI could be used to d0 3/4 of the scouting?
So, we're off.
Picks 1-4
These were all as predicted for a long time. Nothing to talk about here. Likely quality-based picks althought the top 4 picks almost always save huge amounts of pool, just based on the larger bonus slots of these 4 picks.
Pick 5-6
Curiel and Rose were the first surprises. People love to use 'overdraft'. Heck, I do it, too. These were both quantity approach picks.
Picks 7-8
Booth and Burress are on-slot picks. These are quality over quantity picks
Pick 9
Gracia is another quantity pick.
Pick 10
Colorado picks the safe SS, Tyler Bell. I would have gone George Lombard if I was them so I think this was slightly quantity over quality draft but it shouldn't impact, one way or the other, on their ability to draft aggressively later in the draft. And they DO need to draft aggressively from here on out.
Pick 11
Hacopian is a quanitity pick.
Pick 12
Gridlinger to the Angels is more of a quality, brase ring grab pick. They are looking at a long rebuild and need star=quality prospects, not just good, solid prospects.
Pick 13
Thirteenth player selected, thirteenth-ranked prospect. Solid, long-term play for the Cardinals.
NOTE: Lebron & Helfrick are still on the board. It will be interesting to see if they fall like rocks due to worries about their junior year hitting.
Pick 14
Clearly the most aggressive, quality pick in this draft so far. Miami fans should be excited.
Pick 15
Just like the Miami fans have to be ecstatic, the Diamondback fans have to have mixed emotions right now. He has a floor of Austin Hedges but the question is how much better than Hedges will he be as a hitter. I would have been disappointed if the Guardians drafted him in the firsst round but obviously the D-bakcs think like the Guardians do. Defense at catcher is uber important.
Pick 16
Texas goes for the best HS pitcher in the draft. Again, this is a quality pick but within slot. It is a long-term play as the Rangers do not appear concerned with stuffing the top of their pitcher prospect list with players closer to the majors,,,or they just don't like any of the college pitchers left.
Pick 17
Houston picks the 42nd best player in the draft to get a college bat. Seems like a quanitity over quality pick. He is a solid prospect that should save Houston some money.
NOTE: I see teams mavbe saving money for HS flyers later, maybe a little more than normal.
Pick 18
Wow, Lebron to the Reds. This is a gamble from them. I hope it works out.
Pick 19
There were FIVE pitchers the Guardians could have gone with: Peterson, Flukey, Dietz, Kuhns, Carlon. They picked Peterson. In theory, there were no bad picks here. I have to think that his upside was what they want and they feel they can fix him to reach that upside. Look for the Red Sox to pop Dietz.
Picks 20-28
I am lumping these together as I move on to other things in my day. Here are my thoughts:
Schaffner - Clear quanitity pick, saving money for later
Borthwick - Quantity pick
Flukey - Tigers getting a solid college pitcher with a gamble level about the same, on paper, as Peterson but 3 picks later. Again, no wrong pick in this range for college pitchers, just who you think you can develop in your system
Townsend - What I just said about Flukey
Reese - Good college hitter. Likely undervalued as his position may end up being 1B but a good vlaue.
Ebel - Long term quantity play here. Lowest ranked pick drafted so far. Teams like who they like.
Beck - As in most drafts, at some point, things go off the rail. This is the case with Beck. Clearly an extreme quantity play. Head scratching decisions are made by teams every draft and this is one of them.
Wiggins - Wow, not only an overdraft but a draft OVER his highly ranked college teammate, Dietz. Now I am starting to think something medical is going on with Dietz. Time will tell.
Radel - Interesting. Probably quantity over quality but the back story with Kuhns, Dietz, Rabe, etc. becomes even more interesting.
NOTE: Remember when we traded for Bailey and I didn't like it. Well here we are at 29 and we could have had our choice of Dietz, Rabe, Kuhns, Carlon and Edwards, to say nothing about Daniel Jackson on the position player side. Really wish I had the #29 pick instead of Bailey.
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