2026 Draft - Part 7 - Final Pre-Draft Thoughts and Final Mock Draft

 FINAL PRE-DRAFT THOUGHTS

This is the time of the draft cycle where I get the most nervous.  The Guardians, ever since the 2021 draft, have, in my opinion, acted like they are the smartest guys in the draft.  The 2022 and 2023 slap hitter drafts were very ill conceived.  The 2025 draft of college hitters in a college pitcher heavy draft felt the same way and still does, despite those guys feasting on inexperienced pitchers in the Midwest League.  The Guardians have been tied to HS hitters, college contact hitters and even some college power hitters in the first round of the 2026 draft.  People have claimed that they are looking into the power hitter demographic in college and in high school.  The phrase, you can never have too much pitching, should be on a big banner in their draft room.  Since 2022 with Campbell and Messick, they have not drafted a quality college starting pitcher and it shows in their minor league depth and pitcher prospect pipeline close to the majors. Their minor league rotations are full of lower level college pitchers, none of whom is having much, if any, success.  

Given that the 2025 draft has the potential to be one of the worst in Guardians history (IMO, the hitters success from that draft comes against lower level competition and, even then, comes with red flags like too many Ks and bad defense).  We need to be following up that draft with a safer one that fills needs in our system, not a brass ring grab of HS players who have a high failure rate and clearly take a longer time to develop than college players.  We just can't afford to have the Guardians act like they are the smartest guys in the room or not have a solid plan to fall back on if they get punched in the mouth by not getting their guy or their backup plan to that guy, in the first 5 rounds of the draft like I am convinced happened in 2025.

Guardians: pitching and defense wins.  Draft to the part of that philosophy that involves pitching and your developmental strengths.  So, that leads me to my final mock draft before the action starts tomorrow.  As you will see, mine is a strange draft that has two parts: college pitching and lower ranked college power hitters.  That latter group is likely to littered with organizational guys but if even one or two of those picks click to produce a ML power hitter, it will be wildly successful.

FINAL MOCK DRAFT

I have described my draft philosophy which is, simply put, college pitching x9 and a HS pitching flyer in the first 10 rounds. So, drum roll please, here is my 2026 final pre-draft Guardians mock draft:

#19 - Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas (Baseball America: 35, ESPN: 15, MLB: 17,  Over-Slot: 24)

        - Alternate Selection: Taylor Rabe, RHP, Ole Miss (BA: 26, ESPN: 48, MLB: 40 , O-S: 26)

#59 - Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston State (BA: 84, ESPN: 154, MLB: 86, O-S: 151)

#95 - Maxx Yehl LHP, West Virginia (BA: 124, ESPN: 161, MLB: 217; O-S: 104)

#123 - Nathan Taylor RHP, Cincinnati (BA: 144, ESPN: 242, MLB: 215, O-S: 167)

#155 - Josh McDevitt, RHP, Missouri (BA: 197, MLB: 236, ESPN: NR, O-S: 278)

#184 - Cam Johnson, LHP, Oklahoma (BA: 184, ESPN: NR, MLB: 250, O-S: 425)

            Alternate Selection: Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA

    

#213 - Zane Adams, LHP, Alabama (BA: 221, ESPN: NR, MLB:NR , O-S: 291)

#243 - Jensen Hirschkorn, RHP, HS (BA: 43, ESPN: 58, MLB: 56, O-S: 71) - HS RHP overslot $2.5 MM flyer

#273 - Gavin Van Kempen, RHP, East Carolina (BA: 274, MLB: NR, ESPN: NR, O-S: NR)

#303 - J.P. Robertson, RHP, Ole Miss (BA: NR, ESPN: NR , MLB: NR , O-S: 387)

Seeing the BA rankings, this is an aggressive mock as some of these guys (like Yehl, for example) may be gone at the slots I picked them.  I am so locked into the first 6 pitchers that, except for the first round where we would likely have guys like Rabe, Kuhn, Townsend, Carlon, Edwards and maybe even Liam Peterson, in that order, if Dietz is gone,  if one of my picks in rounds 2-6 weren't available, I just would insert Cal Randall, RHP UCLA or move everyone up one slot and then backfill. Then I would backfill with a college pitcher or an overslot HS hitter.  

My rounds 11-20 will likely be almost all college power hitters, many of them senior signs. I am done with the HS flyer pitchers (except for one) and gimmick college pitchers (e.g., Schuelke).  If even one or two of these college power hitters pan out, this would be wildly successful.  Remember, last year I predicted Boston Smith & John Day as my late round college power hitters and both are doing very well in the minors in their first full year.  So, that's my plan.

Here is an example of what I would do, should these guys be available.:

333 - Mark Quatrani, C, Notre Dame (Note: I saw him hit a 462 foot HR)

363 - Judd Utemark, UTIL, Ole Miss

393 - Michael Anderson - 1B - Penn St.

423 - Michael O'Shaunesy - INF - Georgia

453 - Grayson Fitzwater, 1B/OF, VMI

483 - Chris Katz, LF/RF/C, Mercer

513 - Alec Welshans, UTIL - La Salle

543 - Dagen Brewer, OF, Pittsburgh St.

573 - Joe Whitaker, INF, Belmont Abbey

603 - David Hinojosa, RHP, NY HS

This group has 1 college junior (Quatrani), 8 college senior power hitters and the usual late round HS flyer (Hinojosa).  I know this is incredibly unusual but as picks 11-29 rarely pan out, these picks at least pay homage to the Guardians desire to infuse more power bats into their system.

Now the waiting starts.  Hopefully, whoever the Guardians draft, will be well thought out, balancing floor and ceiling and, in 3 years or so, we will see a lot of these guys in Cleveland helping the ML team win a WS!