Signings update and an interesting factoid

I will continue to update the signings information below when new signings occur.    I will also keep updating the draft pool budget information when something occurs of significance there.

Interesting factoid:  Tomorrow the Cavaliers, Indians, Captains, Aeros and Clippers go for 3 wins in a row.   The Cavaliers and Captains get championships with wins (the Captains 'championship' may actually only be a second place finish but it would qualify them for the playoffs) and the Indians, Aeros and Clippers, with wins, try to keep momentum going that had been slowed down by recent loss streaks.  If they all win tomorrow they would likely all (the Clippers would have to also have a loss by Indianapolis), on the same day, be the top teams in their leagues/divisions.

What a day it would be if all these teams won tomorrow.   Maybe the greatest day in Cleveland sports history.  Let's keep our fingers crossed.   It is about time this city has a good run of luck.

Draft pool update

As I had suggested on Saturday, Benson would have to sign for $2.5 million AT THE MOST in order for us to have a chance to sign Jones and Capel.    Well, he apparently did sign for that much but remember, in order for us to have the ability to sign both Capel and Jones, we will need help from everywhere in the first 10 rounds.   Well, we seem to be getting a little help from everyone else in the draft but will it be enough to increase our pool excess to sign Jones, Capel and Cantu?  Here are the numbers:

Benson: Pool: $2.934 million; actual bonus: $2.5 million; $434,000 savings
Nolan Jones: Pool: $1,159,200; actual bonus: $2.25 million; $1,090,800 over budget
Logan Ice Pool: $892,200; actual bonus: $$850,000; $42,200 savings
Aaron Civale Pool: $655,200; actual bonus: $625,000; $30,200 savings
Shane Beiber Pool: $482,500; actual bonus: 420,000; $52,500 savings 
Conner Capel Pool: 361,300; actual bonus:$361,300; $0 savings
Ulysses Cantu Pool: $270,300; actual bonus: $270,300; $0 savings
Michael Tinsley Pool: $202,900; actual bonus: $175,000; $27,300 savings
Andrew Lantrip Pool: $178,700; actual bonus: $125,000; $53,700 savings
Hosea Nelson Pool: $166,700; actual bonus: $125,000; $41,700 savings
Samad Taylor Pool: $156,600; actual bonus: $125,000; $31,600 savings
Total savings (counting $367,100 (4.99%) over budget without a penalty) $1,080,300 extra to spend so far.

NOTE: By this calculation, if we don't sign any guys after the 10th round for more than $100,000, we would still be over our budget by about $10,000.   Must have made a math error somewhere or Jones' bonus is a little high.

Draft signing update

Here is the most recent update I can piece together about draft signings for Indians players:

Will Benson - In Cleveland for physical - Will sign for $2.5 million.
Nolan Jones - No word yet -likely to go down to the wire as this will likely require a WAY over slot bonus and we won't know how much we have for a while
Logan Ice - Signed to underslot bonus
Aaron Civale - Signed to underslot bonus
Shane Bieber - Still in NCAA playoffs with UC Santa Barbara, can't sign yet
Connor Capel - Signed, bonus unknown yet
Ulysses Cantu - Signed, slot bonus
Michael Tinsley - Signed to underslot bonus
Andrew Lantrip - Signed to underslot bonus
Hosea Nelson - Signed to underslot bonus
Samad Taylor - Signed to slightly underslot bonus
Andrew Calica - Senior - still in NCCA playoffs with UC Santa Barbara - can't sign yet
Zac Plesac - Signed to $100,000 contract - currently out with TJ surgery
Gavin Collins - Signed to $100,000 contract
Mitch Longo - signed to $100,000 contract
Zack Smith - No word yet
Ben Krauth - Signed for $1,000 and is heading to MV
Trenton Brooks - Signed for $100,000
Raymond Burgos - signed to $100,000 contract
Dakody Clemmer - signed to $100,000 contract
Ben Baird - No word yet
Wil Crowe - RS sophomore coming of TJ surgery - likely to go back to college next year unless money is left over from first 10 rounds.
Mason Studstill - No word yet
Michael Letkewicz - signed for $1000
Skylar Arias - signed for $50,000
Jonathan Laureno - signed for $50,000
Tanner Tully - Signed for $100,000
Nelson Alvarez - No word yet
Jamal Rutledge - Signed, $50,000
Spencer Steer - No word yet
Ryder Ryan - Signed for $50,000
Chris Farish - No word yet
Kramer Robertson - Reportedly going back to school for senior year
Blake Sabol - No word yet
Auston Shenton - No word yet
Armani Smith - No word yet
Andrew Baker - No word yet
Mike Amditis - No word yet
Jacob DeVries - No word yet
Pedro Alfonseca - No word yet
Danny Sinatro - No word yet

Post Draft Summary

OK, we are getting further away from the end of the draft and signings are starting to come in.   So, let's talk about how this draft looks overall.   This analysis may change if guys don't sign but let's assume right now that all of our main targets sign.

Rounds 1-10 - For the first time in a while the Indians didn't take low cost filler in the top 10 rounds.   I think their haul in these rounds is potentially very solid for a team picking 14th, especially given that their only extra pick was after the 2nd round.  The key will, of course, be to sign Benson, Jones, Capel and Cantu and to sign Jones, Capel and Cantu you will have to be stealing bonus money (collectively) from the slot values of the other 8 guys in the top 10 rounds.  We will see if that is even possible.

Rounds 11-40 - In order to sign any real good prospects here (i.e., guys who are good, solid prospects right now) we need to have money left over from the first 10 rounds.   Given that they drafted a new low (for Cleveland) of THREE college seniors, I could see this draft resulting in the Indians signing the fewest players they have for years.   Why?  There aren't that many sure signings in this group and a number of guys are flyers who we probably won't have money for.  And, of course, there are the ever-present lowly rated HS guys who won't sign for $100,000 and will go to college instead.    Obviously the guys you would like to sign would be Baird and Crowe.   I don't think we will have the extra money for either.

So, let the signing and projecting begin. 

2016 Indians Draft - Day 3 Analysis

OK, here we are at the end of Day 3.   Let's look at some of the near certainties of rounds 11-40.

1. Any guy signed here has to be signed for $100,000 or less.   If they are signed for over 100k that difference has to be applied to our draft budget.  

2. A flyer is someone who has dropped in the draft.   His talent slot is much greater than the slot he was drafted in.   Teams draft flyers in these rounds.

3. Teams draft a lot of organizational players in these rounds.  These are usually college seniors or college juniors who don't want to finish their college careers.

Before we get into the detail I wanted to cut to the chase and give you my summary of our 3rd day draft:  This looks similar to previous years.   I think the way the first two days set up if Nolan Jones or Connor Capel doesn't sign, maybe we will have a little money to sign some of the flyers we drafted in rounds 11-40.   If our first 11 picks sign, I doubt any of the talented players (guys rated in the top 200 by Baseball America) from the last 30 rounds sign with the Indians.   So I hold by my previous analysis: We set up this draft to have extra money to sign Jones, Capel and maybe, to a lesser extent, Cantu.  I think Benson will sign for below slot but I don't think if we sign Jones to an overslot bonus that we will have enough money to sign Capel, let alone Capel and any of the flyers we drafted in rounds 11-40.    If we don't sign Jones, look for us to make serious runs at some of the better prospects we drafted in these later rounds.   The details follow below.

Normally, if you see a flyer drafted in these rounds it is for two connected reasons:

1. The team knows it is likely to have an excess of their draft budget left after the first 10 rounds

AND

2. The team is uncertain if it can sign a guy from the first 10 rounds who will want more than their draft slot.

To be more clear, many of these flyers are drafted just in case this single player (or a couple of players) don't sign.   They then take this excess money (only the money ABOVE what is slotted for that spot in the draft, not the amount allotted for that slot) and spread it around to flyers in these later rounds.   Most of these flyers go unsigned as teams find a way to spend all of their draft budget on top 10 round guys.   Sometimes, though, a flyer or two gets signed as teams have extra money and/or the flyer drops his draft demands.   Luke Wakamatsu from last year's draft was a flyer who signed.  Nick Madrigal from last year's draft was a flyer who did not sign.

Now that we have that in place, let's take a look at rounds 11-40. 

Re-drafts - The Indians drafted a couple of flyers they had draft, as flyers, out of high school.   Wil Crowe and Andrew Calica were projected to go higher in the draft.

Catchers -  The Indians drafted 3 high school catchers in these rounds (Zack Smith, Blake Sabol and Mike Amditis) all flyers.   Likely none of them will sign and I think they were drafted as backups in case Ice and Tinsley from rounds 3 and 7 do not sign.

Other flyers - Besides Crowe, some other flyers the Indians drafted include Ben Baird, Austin Shenton, Andrew Baker.   All these are HS players and none of them have a high likelihood of signing.  However, note that Baird is a SS, the position that Nolan Jones, a difficult sign for the Indians, plays.   I think Baird is our backup if Jones doesn't sign.

High School Players unlikely to sign - Look, as a HS player you have to have confidence that you can get more than $100,000 after being in college for 1-3 years.  I have never understood why the Indians draft these guys as they rarely sign them and, when they do, the kids rarely end up as even long-term minor leaguers in our system.  Some of the lowly rated HS players they drafted this year include: Samad Taylor, Raymond Burgos, Mason Studstill, Nelson Alvarez, Spencer Steer,  Armani Smith, Pedro Alfonseca and Danny Sinatro.  Once in a while they sign one of these guys to an above slot bonus (Shawn Morimando comes to mind) and they blossom into a really good prospect.  So, if they sign one or more of these guys maybe there is some hope. 

Junior College Players - Dakody Clemmer is the standout here.   The Indians have had good luck signing junior college guys who are OK draft prospects (Ryan Perez last year).  I think they sign one of these guys.

College pitchers - It is in these rounds that the Indians have become good at finding middle reliever prospects like Shawn Armstrong, Ben Heller, Austin Adams, etc.   When you think of this year's draftees the guys who seem to fit this profile include Zach Plesac, Ben Krauth, Mike Letkewicz, Tanner Tully, Ryder Ryan, Chris Farish and Jacob DeVries (an Air Force pitcher).  Many times these guys don't even sign, returning to college for another year.  Sometimes they do sign.  If you see one of these guys sign, for me, they instantly become sleeper prospects to keep an eye on down the road.

2016 Draft Analysis - Days 1 and 2

OK, any of you who know me know that I am a draft guy first and foremost, prospect guy second and ML analysis guy 3rd. 

So let's start with an axiom that experts in the draft put out every time a draft pick is questioned by the fans:

"Teams like who they like".

OK, we get that.  So THEY like who they like.   But does that have to mean they should PAY the guys they like a lot more than what the consensus is on that guy's talent? 

 So, from that, here is my draft axiom:  Like who you like but draft who you can sign with the intent of doing two things:

1. Not going over your draft budget so you don't have to pay a penalty and, potentially, use a first round pick in next year's draft.

2. Have enough left over from your draft budget after the first 10 rounds to sign a flyer or two in rounds 11-40.

There are three ways that teams usually handle the first 10 rounds. 

1. Draft guys that you think will all sign at their slot value

2. Draft a few guys in the first 10 rounds (like college seniors) who will sign for peanuts ($1000) and then draft a combination of the best available guys and guys who will sign for slot in the remaining picks.

3. Draft a #1 pick who will sign for way below slot and use that money to sign other picks who will require above slot bonuses to sign.

When I look at these three scenarios, the only one I see that fits with the Indians first 10 rounds this year is #3...and only if their first round pick signs for much less than his slot or some of the better talents they drafted later sign for slot value.

Let's look over the picks and see where the money should be saved and spent.

Will Benson is a great prospect in the old scouting sense.   He is tall, incredibly athletic, and a potential 5-tool guy.  But he is a consensus supplemental first round pick, not a 14.  They should be able to get him to sign for roughly $2.5 million, a savings of over $400,000 which can be used elsewhere but, for this kid, MUCH more than his current talent level and likelihood of making an impact at the ML level would dictate.

On the other hand Nolan Jones will probably require more than the $1.2 million that his draft spot is valued at to sign his pick.  So Benson's extra money (and more) should go to Jones.  

Logan Ice should get money about his draft level.   Let's say they pay this defense-first college junior about $50,000 below slot and give that money to Jones.

Aaron Civale - This guy was drafted at slot 92 and was ranked about 200 in the country.  I think they should be able to sign him for less than his slot, maybe $150,000 less. 

So, if the above works out we have an additional $600,000 to give Jones, meaning his bonus would be about $2 million, which should be enough, I hope, to get him signed.

Civale is a 3rd round pick.  For picks through the 3rd round you get a compensation pick next year if you fail to sign them.   However, you lose their slot bonus from your budget this year.   For rounds 4-10 if you fail to sign a guy you don't get a draft pick next year AND you lose their slot bonus from your budget this year.

Bieber was their 4th round pick.   Like Civale he is a pitchability guy.  He was rated lower than the 122 slot they will sign him at.  In order to make this draft work for the Indians they will have to sign him for at least $100,000 less than what his slot is valued at.  Why?  Let's look at the rest of their class.

Conner Capel - In steps our first sleeper/flyer of the draft.  By that I mean a guy who we got at a much lower slot than his talent would indicate.   This is usually a sign that the guy wants a lot of money so let's figure he wants more than his #60 ranking would indicate.   Maybe say $1.5 million.  You can argue about the actual amount but clearly it appears the Indians will need more than his slot to sign Capel.  I estimate we will likely need close to $750,000 more than slot to sign him.  Normally when you have two guys like Capel and Jones taken this early in the draft, you draft a number of college seniors who sign for $1000 or so and you bank their bonus money.  However, the Indians drafted ZERO college seniors in the first 10 rounds.   So, on paper, they have no guys who they can sign for peanuts like they can college seniors.  So, I think they will be nickel and diming savings on the remaining top 10 round guys.   Let's see where that money is coming from

Ulysses Cantu - Here is a guy who was a top 60 guy this winter and fell to the mid 200s.  So, to sign him we save no money.  In fact, Bieber's $100,000 and more will have to go to sign Cantu, IMHO.  So now we are two picks down from Capel and have saved no money for his bonus, and are actually $100,000 in the red towards more bonus money for him. 

Let's continue:

Michael Tinsley was drafted at slot 212 and was a 294 ranked player. In my opinion this is just a guy who the Indians liked a little more than his slot.  There is no savings here.

Andrew Lantrip - Here is a guy who was a top 140 guy this winter but his ranking fell to 422 and we tapped him at 242.  Maybe we save $100,000 here vs slot, but probably will save less than $50,000.

So now we are down to our last two picks in the top 10 rounds, the only picks left in this draft where you can save money you can spend on other picks.   How much money can we save here?

Well, Hosea Nelson is a second year junior college guy.  He can go to college for his junior year and hope to get drafted higher next year.  He has options so getting him to sign for peanuts will be difficult and, at this point, his draft slot is valued so low (around $200,000) that there is not much savings there.  Let's say we can save $50,000 on him as he does have leverage to go back to school and his slot is not that high.

Samad Taylor is a HS kid who was not ranked in BA's top 500.  High school kids drafted in the top 10 rounds usually require at least slot money to sign.  You just can't get a kid who has a college scholarship to a good college (Arizona) in hand to sign for $150,000 or so unless he REALLY doesn't want to go to college and, in that case, he will likely NOT sign for below slot.

Summary - I think the way this draft breaks down we don't have enough money to sign Jones and Capel unless they both sign for slot.  Ditto for Cantu (over slot a little) and Taylor (at least at slot).    Plus, we won't have any money left in later rounds to pay HS players who fell during the draft any more than $100,000, meaning almost none of them will sign. 

I really hope the Indians know what they are doing.   To the pundits with the axiom "Teams like who they like" I say this.  While that is true you have to be able to sign who you like.  If the Indians can sign Benson, Jones and Capel and not get into draft tax hell, I think this is a good, solid draft for them.  If, in fact, they lose one of the three of these guys and do not have a backup plan in later rounds because they haven't saved enough money because they didn't draft any college seniors early, this draft is going to be lacking in talent. 

One of the most interesting drafts in years for the Indians.   They don't really need another outfielder but Benson is EXACTLY the type of high risk, high reward prospect that, if he hits, will make this draft.  The Indians do need catching depth in the minors but do you spend full slot bonuses on medium prospect college catchers in the top 10 rounds?  The Indians have rarely done this so it is interesting they drafted a college catcher not only once but twice in the top 10 rounds this year.   They have drafted very little top pitching talent this year and, looking at the draft reviews, maybe drafted three future pro middle relievers in their 3 college pitchers drafted in the top 10 rounds?  Historically the Indians have not settled for pitchability college guys in their picks in the first 10 rounds so it is interesting they did it this year.   Plus not drafting a college senior in the top 10 rounds while not being unheard of is a dangerous way to go if you don't know some of your 5-10 round guys will sign for MUCH less than their slot.   We'll see how it all turns out.  We are Indians' fans.  We always hope for the best. 

On to day 3.

The post-Marlon Byrd Cleveland Indians

Of the multitude of minor league free agent signings the Indians made, I like the Marlon Byrd signing the best.  

Why?

Because the guy actually was hitting somewhat at the time of his 162 game suspension. 

It's no secret that I wanted Urshela at 3rd and Naquin in the outfield and Ramirez somewhere on the field.   

Still, here we are in the beginning of June and it looks like the Indians will stay in contention beyond when the Cavaliers/ season ends in about two weeks.  And this as we approach the end of maybe our toughest stretch of the season, considering the records of the teams we have played in the past week or two.

Bringing up Naquin (he had an 8 pitch walk and a 6-pitch HR tonight) should set the modus operandi for the rest of the season.  

Send Uribe to the bench.   Send Rajai Davis to the bench.   These guys are valuable as bench players and in the locker room.  Promote Urshela and have him split time with Ramirez at 3rd with Ramirez also getting play in LF.   If you need IF help bring up Gonzalez.   You still have relief pitching help and some starting pitching depth of that comes into play.   The OF is a little more thin but I still have hope that Bradley Zimmer can help by August at the latest. 

This team is 29-24 and 1/2 game out of first place in the Central but we are the Cleveland Indians.   We should build from within and I think there are resources in the minors that we should try out first. 

BTW, the farm system is now 134-83 which, by my calculator is a .618 winning percentage.   Mike Papi has 'earned' a promotion to AA and there is a lot to wish on in the minors at every level so far.   Not that it is all polished up or anything but there is a lot to like, some of which may make it to Cleveland this year. 

Go Tribe!