Monday, June 27, 2016

Ben Baird - maybe this will help signing him!

Maybe we have LeBron James talk to our 20th round draft choice about signing with the Indians.  Maybe we can throw in him getting to spend a day with and go one-on-one with LeBron if he'll sign with the Indians :-)

https://twitter.com/benbaird21




Sunday, June 26, 2016

Updated predictions (includes short season teams)

Indians 90-72 - Wild card winner, division series winner, league championship winner, world series winner.

Minor league records:
Columbus: 70-74
Akron: 80-64
Lynchburg: 76-68
Lake County: 76-68

I posted the above back at the end of March in the 25-man roster post.   Now that we have the draft results in and we know who we are going to sign, here are my short season team predictions

Mahoning Valley 32-44
AZL Indians - 33-23

It is really hard to project results for the Dominican team but let's say they will finish 2 games over .500 just to have a prediction in. 

2016 Draft - the currently unsigned guys

OK, the Indians are busily signing guys, more guys than I thought they would.  With the July 15th deadline not that far off, let's look at the guys who haven't signed and find out what our chances are of signing them and, frankly, what guys we should sign.

First, let's look at the Indians farm system.   Last year we drafted a number of HS pitchers.  That followed getting Justus Sheffield and Justin Mayweather the year before that.    So, in the low minors we are pretty well set with high end prospect pitchers.   In the upper minors we are a little thinner and aside from Mike Clevinger, we are looking at mostly #4-5 starters and relievers...but the cup is far from empty in terms of AA/AAA pitching prospects.      We are weak at catching prospects, strong at first base and a little thin in the outfield except for our high end guys, Zimmer and Frazier.  Most of our other OF prospects are slap and run guys.   Middle infield is solid.  Third base, beyond Urshela, is questionable but if Urshela comes on we are set there and clearly at utility INF.

Our ML team is set at starting pitching and is a little weak in most of other positions.   Assuming we can pull off an opportunisitc trade for a starting OFer and a quality LOOGY we might lose most of our quality OF prospects and perhaps a middle infielder and a pitcher. For me the target would be Ryan Braun and that would probably cost us at least Clevinger, Erik Gonzalez and Clint Frazier and we might have to throw in Chisenhall, too.  Maybe we could get a LOOGY from them, too.

So, with that in mind, let's look at the guys who we haven't signed:

Nolan Jones - He gives us a potentially impactful third base prospect.  I don't know if he will be in the same category but I look at him like Matt Whitney when we drafted him.  We all know he is the key signing but he is not the only one we need to sign.

Shane Bieber - He, along with Civale, gives us more #4-5 guys and if the Indians have scouted well, maybe one of these guys turns into a closer with a bump in MPH when they go to the bullpen.  We have a number of these guys at the upper levels of the minors but are missing these types from last year's draft so signing Bieber would be good.   Signing him for under slot would be better as we look to sign flyers. 

Andrew Calica - I don't see the reason for signing him.   Greg Allen is looking great, Gabriel Mejia has some upside and Connor Marabell and Nathan Lukes also have some promise.  If he will sign for $100,000 or maybe $125,000 then I say maybe.   However, how many non-power OFers does an organization need if those guys hardly ever make an impact at the ML level now.    Twenty-five years ago, maybe, but Michael Brantley is more the prototypical non-40 HR outfielder now and I don't see Calica (or Allen) putting up numbers like Brantley's.   Maybe Almonte numbers but those are AAA numbers, really.

Zack Smith, Blake Sabol, Mike Amditis - I think the chances of signing all these HS catchers went out the window when we signed Ice and Tinsley.  I think these three guys were contingency guys if we didn't sign Ice or Tinsley.  Since we have signed those college catchers and with the presence of Daniel Salters, spending money on HS catchers is pretty much a waste and given the quality of these guys, I think they all will and, frankly, probably should go to college.  I would love to sign all of them for $500,000 total but I really think that would be unneeded by us and unfair to them. 

Ben Baird - I think that signing him makes the most sense.   He is highly rated and Jones will probably end up at third base so having another MIF prospect a year behind Wakamatsu and two years behind Krieger and Mathias makes sense.

Wil Crowe - I LOVE this guy but I think signing him will be a waste of money.   I think he will ask for too much and would rather get two HS guys instead of him.

Chris Farish and Kramer Robertson -  Every year we draft some college players who decide to go back to college to play another year.  These two guys (and maybe Crowe) are likely to be this year's versions.

Auston Shenton, Spencer Steer, Armani Smith - One of these guys would be nice but, again, I don't know if we have the money and I think maybe they were just contingencies if we didn't sign Jones.  I originally thought they might be contingencies if we didn't sign Cantu and had budgeted $500,000 for him but since Cantu signed for slot, my guess is that these three guys were contingencies just for Jones not signing.

Nelson Alvarez, Mason Studstill, Andrew Baker - I love these HS pitcher types and some of them work out (See Shawn Morimando).  Others end up being first or second round picks 3 years down the road leaving me to always ask myself 'What if we would have signed this guy?'  So, if you can sign one or two and not break the bank, I say go for it.   This is a classic example of the more depth you have the better chances you have of getting a guy to the majors.   Frankly, though, if we signed all three the likelihood is that only one of them would make a major impact.

Alfonseca and Sinatro - I wonder if these two guys were just recognition signings.  That is, they have no chance to sign but we are doing them a favor by drafting them so they have on their resume that they were drafted in the ML draft.  Maybe like Wakamatsu we have a chance but, more often than not, these types of picks

DeVries and Burgos - I think both will/have signed. 

So, that's it.   If we get Jones, Bieber and Baird I will be very happy with this draft.   If we get Crowe or one of the HS pitchers, as well, I am over the top happy.


Saturday, June 25, 2016

Julio Franco - Mr. 3028?

First, I have long thought the Indians never did enough to keep (and especially to bring back) their best players of the 80s/90s.   Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez and Oscar Vizquel.   Two them are definitely HOFers if no PED involvement is discovered.   The question has raged as to whether we did enough to keep them originally and whether we did enough to bring them back later in their careers.    I have ALWAYS been about how HOFers make your franchise.   Living in St. Louis and seeing the monuments around there I can imagine my grandkids at Progressive Field climbing around on statues of Thome and Vizquel and, had things broken differently for their careers, statues of Ramirez, Albert Belle and Carlos Baerga.  I still hold hope that Vizquel and Thome go in as Indians although that is far from a sure thing.   Still, they made their name and fame in Cleveland so I can hope that common sense wins out and they go in as Indians.

But what does all this have to do with Julio Franco?   Well, the recent discussion about Ichiro and the Pete Rose hit record brings something up that I have written about before:  Does Julio Franco beling in the HOF?   Well 3000 hits is still a good indicator of HOF status and if you count Franco's two years in Japan and one year in Korea he as 3028 hits.   That doesn't even count his one season in the Mexican League.    So if we are going to have a discussion about Ichiro being the all-time hits leader then I think the veterans committee, when the time is right,  should have a serious discussion about putting Julio Franco in the Hall of Fame.   Hey, I don't know if he would even go in as an Indian and the Indians could have secured that if they would have signed and played him those three years.   I know a lot of this is on Franco as he followed the money (and the guaranteed playing time) outside of the US.   Instead of taking a minor league deal or having to wait and hope he got a late contract (see Marlon Byrd this year) he took good money and went to play overseas.   Nonetheless, I think these stats count.  His history shows that had he been in the majors those four years he played outside the country he could have probably gotten to 3000 hits.   Just wish the Indians, in his case and others, would have done more to secure these guys getting into the HOF with the Indian "C" on their bronze non-talking heads!

In my book Julio Franco is a HOFer.   Maybe the Ichiro hit record discussion will bring light to Julio Franco's status, as well.   Let's hope so and let's hope he goes in as an Indian.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Reporting Draft Bonuses

Announcing draft signings is quite the art.   Leaking SELECTED draft bonuses is part of that art.  

That is why I am not surprised we have so much information so early on the bonuses of MOST of the guys we have signed in the first 10 rounds.

It is also why I am not surprised that we know NOTHING about Connor Capel's bonus and, for that matter, Michael Tinsley's bonus. 

My guess is that the Indians are in hot and heavy negotiations with Nolan Jones.   If his 'advisor' knew how much the Indians had spent on their picks it would give Jones a good idea of what they had to sign him.  

So, let's run a couple of scenarios.

(1) The Indians signed Capel for significantly over his slot.   Well, Jones could use that as leverage to get, say, a very high percentage over his slot.   It might also make him aware how much pool is left to sign him with the end result being that he would likely ask for all of it, leaving the Indians with nothing for flyers.  

(2) The Indians signed Capel to close to slot..   In this case Jones would realize that he could ask the Indians for a lot more money as they would have much more to spend.

But what if the Indians had some guys to sign way over slot from rounds 11-40?  In that case they would want to be coy about their draft pool excess so they would have to hold back a couple of signing bonuses until Jones signed at which point he would realize that the Indians had more excess than what they gave him.

This is all conjecture but, in some ways, this is how the game is played.  What kid would want to give up ANY money so his future team could sign another prospect.  I can see the conversation:  "Hey, Nolan, we have an extra million that we can add to your bonus but, instead, we only want to give you $600,000 over slot so we can give the other $400,000 to Ben Baird.   Don't mind that he is a HS shortstop like you.   We still love you best.".   So they work Jones with a number that is based on what was leaked to the media about the other bonuses and letting him know that Tinsley and Capel signed for over slot, but not how much over slot.   Jones doesn't even have to do the math.  It is being done for them by maybe every Tribe chatgroup in the US. 

This only works if they know Jones really wants to sign and just have to manage his bonus or if they don't give a crap if he signs because they have contingency signings in place from the later rounds to offset the loss of Jones.  In this case they offer Jones what they can afford to give him over slot and, if he doesn't sign, give that money to one or two extra guys besides the ones they already have targeted in rounds 11-40.

So, I think the Indians have played this perfectly so far.   The key will be getting Jones at the INDIANS' number, not at Jones' number.

I imagine that if I had told each of you before the draft we could have gotten the following guys at the slots below and NOT gone over our bonus pool plus 5% you all would have been ecstatic. [ Note that I am using the player's rank, not the slot they were actually drafted at].

14th selection: 19th best player (Jones)
55th selection: 30th best player (Benson)
72nd selection: 62nd best player (Capel)
92nd selection: 65the best player (Ice)
122nd selection: 141st best player (Baird)
152nd selection: 148th best player (Crowe(
182nd pick: 184th best player (Beiber)
212th pick: 204th best player (Civale)
242nd pick: 235th best player (Calica)
272nd pick: 236th best player (Clemmer)
302nd pick: 254th best player (Cantu)
332nd pick: 294th best player (Tinsley)

Obviously this is only one publication's (Baseball America) ranking.   But using these rankings they would have gone AT LEAST 12 rounds into the draft and gotten a more highly ranked player for each of their draft slots (except Jones, who was just a couple of places below his slot).   Maybe not drafted in that order, but, nonetheless, more value than what they should have gotten for the slot AND didn't have to go over their bonus pool to do it.

If they got all of the above done it would be a very good draft.   Any more than that (read: other flyers left in rounds 11-40) and it would be their best overall draft in my memory.

Let the dreaming begin.


Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Draft pool update

I have updated the signings and bonus information below.

We still don't have signing information on Cantu and Capel.   However, by my calculations we have over $1,000,000 excess at this point.  Let's assume that Cantu signed for $50,000 over slot and Capel signed for $250,000 over slot.

If these numbers are correct we have about $750,000 left to sign Jones.   Now, remember included in that is the 4.99% excess.   If we don't sign Jones we lose about $50,000 of that excess (5% of his 1.2 million bonus). 

So, if we don't sign Jones we get his draft selection back next year and we have a huge excess to spend on picks after the top 10 rounds.   

So, the question is, would I rather have Jones or Baird, Wil Crowe and one of Studstill or Alvarez.

Right now, if those were my choices I would take Baird, Crowe and one of the two HS pitchers.

Time will tell.

Monday, June 20, 2016

I know this is an Indians' blog but....

...let's have a timeout to applaud the Cavaliers.   Besides the obvious excess that we don't want to teach our kids to expect out of life, for those of us who are raising student/athletes this has to be one of the best examples I have ever seen in sports of the old axiom, there is no "I" in T-E-A-M.   Yeah, LeBron James was at the center, and ever the first two layers away from the center, of it all.  However, if you look beyond that, here is what you have:

Ty Lue -  We will likely never know (well, at least until the inevitable book/movie combo come out) what really went on.  Was it that Lue did his best Phil Jackson impersonation and cajoled his players into doing what needed to be done to win or was it the players scripting what needed to be done and then buying into it.   I would think more of the latter with a touch of the former.   We will never know if David Blatt could have pulled this off but my guess is that he couldn't, especially if the latter scenario was what turned the tide.

Timofey Mosgov - Here is a guy who was at the center of the finals last year, literally.   However, this year everyone learned that you can't beat the Warriors with old school center Mosgov on the floor.  He is still a very good player, just not in today's ultra-quick NBA.   He took his demotion/benching like a man and didn't blow it all up by being a baby.   He did what was for the greater good.

Matthew Dellavadova - See Mosgov, but in the finals.   Delly just couldn't hang with Warriors Splash brothers.   Not a knock against him as few players can.   And he didn't pout.  He supported his team.

Mo Williams -  Here is a guy who started at the beginning of the year and eventually had to morph into being the point guard of garbage time.   Yet he didn't mess up the chemistry and got some meaningful (albeit rust-laden and less than fully productive) minutes in the finals. 

Channing Frye - He stepped up when needed in the early rounds and then, finding he wasn't productive in the finals, sat with dignity and cheered his teammates.

Dantay Jones - Nothing new for him, but he led by attitude in how to be a bench player who is seldom called on but, in the one moment he is, be productive.   You can't teach that, you have to learn it by experience and Jones, although you can't quantify it, taught his teammates above how to act.

Kyrie Irving - Here you have a superstar who learned when to take charge and when to stand around and let LeBron do it.  This was CRUCIAL to coming back from that 3-1 deficit, not just in the last 3 pointer.   A big shoutout to his teammates, including LeBron, for letting Kyrie cook when he had it going. 

Tristan Thompson - It has been said over and over but how many centers can guard the MVP shooting guard of the league?   I think the answer is "one" and maybe, in all-time NBA playoff history, the answer is that same number.   He changed his role as needed for this team, even hitting a couple of mid-range jumpers.   In the last game he was more noticeable for his defense and getting loose ball fouls than in his offensive rebounding.   But, overall, he was a force on the boards, on court defense, on blocking shots and on helping his team as needed.

Kevin Love - Here is my teamwork MVP of the series.   He TOTALLY morphed his game.   Once he found that he was having trouble scoring outside he went inside and scored.   When Thompson was pulled away from the basket he upped his rebounding, doing a generally good job but being a beast at the end, especially in the last game.   For kids who want to know how to play the game, just look at Love.   While his 3-pointers weren't going in, he found another way, rebounding, to impact the game...and his defense was always pedal to the metal, at least for him.

J R Smith - Here is my #2 in voting in the teamwork MVP.   Known as a scorer and as a hot head, he scored early in the playoffs and, for the most part, controlled his emotions for the good of the team.   In the finals, when his shot deserted him due to the change in team approach and the team he was playing against,  he defended like a fiend and when the outside shot wasn't working, he took it to the hole and dished off for some dunks to change it up.    But most of all it was his defense and his ability to control his temper that made him my #2.   He showed that putting yourself aside and doing what the team needs, even if it means a total makeover in your game overnight, is possible if THAT is what your team needs. 

Iman Shumpert - While he underperformed in the finals in my estimation, he still knew his role and made as many plays as he could.    If one player was going to be replaced next year my guess is that the most expendable would be Shumpert.   Still, if they keep him he knows what he has to become great at to give the Cavs a chance to repeat next year.   If he focuses on those things and learns from his first finals experience and dedicates himself, he should be stellar next year.   Heaven knows, he has enough role models on this team to show him what can happen if you put the team first.

Notice that this long blog post has said nothing so far about LeBron.   Because there is nothing that a pure basketball mortal like me can say.   He simply did what needed to be done, including having his beat up body make free throws when they really mattered.  When he needed to block shots he did.  When he needed to rebound, he did.  When he needed a 3, he got it.  Actually, the one spot that he didn't perform in was when he drove.  He dished off too much.  But he was trying to keep his team involved and negate the 3-man collapses on him when he drove.   I don't know that he had to deal with that type of pressure all year.  Next year that won't be a problem.  He now knows how to deal with that!   While others on this team were great role players and teammates, LeBron was a great leader and doer.   When people step out of the way to allow the leader to get it done, that leader has to get it done.   Steph Curry didn't do that.   LeBron has done it again and again and again...and again.  Curry, from this experience, needs to learn that it is not all about your shooting or your driving and making acrobatic shots.  The true leading scorers, the Oscar Robertsons, the Jerry Wests, the John Havliceks, the Magic Johnsons, the Michael Jordans, those guys do it all and do different things at different times when that one particular thing is needed the most by their team.  Curry needs to learn that...hopefully he learns it right after the Cavaliers compete their 3-peat.    Interestingly on the Warriors, the guy who knows that the best is Damond Green.   He was my teamwork MVP for the Warriors. 

Can this team repeat, or 3-peat?  Who knows.   But they have given us two great finals in a row and our first major professional sports championship in 52 years.   For a Cleveander that is enough.  We'll soak it in and let the future take care of itself.  

Now back to baseball.   Did I mention that the Indians were still in first place?  Go Tribe.