The winter meetings have started and here are some thoughts:
1. I hate the new roster rules. While I am sure minor baseball players would love to make money and have a long career in the majors, a lot of these kids started off by just wanting to make it to the majors. September is a great chance to get your feet wet in the majors and, for a good number of players, it may represent the only time they play in the majors. Major league teams also occasionally give promotions to career minor leaguers who have been good organizational soldiers but have not gotten to spend much, if any, time in the big leagues. The new rule changes all that. The Indians signed catcher Beau Taylor to a minor league deal last week. His first exposure to the majors was as a September callup after 8 years in the minors. He was 28 years old. He would likely not have gotten called up that year had the current rules been in effect. This rule sucks. It saves teams money, that is all. It kills the little guy in this business who may never be talented enough to stick in the majors but at least deserves that cup of coffee.
2. Have I mentioned that the Indians should sign Lindor to a 10 year deal that he can opt out of after 4 years? His salaries would be:
2020 - $18 million
2021 - $20 million
2022 - $22 million
2023 - $25 million (opt out if he wants to after this season)
2024 - $28 million
2025 - $29 million
2026 - $30 million
2027 - $30 million
2028 - $30 million
2029 - $30 million
2030 - $30 million (club option or $1 million buyout)
2031 - $30 million (club option or $1 million buyout)
That averages out to $26.4 million a year guaranteed. We don't do a non-trade clause and the contract, including club options, follows him if we do trade him.
3. This will be the most interesting Rule 5 draft in years, including for the Indians. You heard it here first.
4. Moving to football, the playoff committee got it right. If Justin Fields was in perfect health then I think Ohio State deserved the #1 seed. But he isn't and so there are, therefore, questions about the competitiveness of the Buckeyes against the best competition. While we would all like to play the weakest competition until the finals in any sport we are involved in, if Ohio State deserves the national championship, going through Clemson and the LSU-Oklahoma winner would certainly prove that.
5. Ohio State Men's Basketball - I have seen them play almost every game this year and, frankly, I am amazed. They are so much better than the sum of their parts and, frankly, look like they are getting better and better every week. Yeah, the stars aligned against North Carolina and Penn State but they DEMOLISHED those two teams when they weren't supposed to. Aside from getting cocky, bored, or just losing motivation, if their goal is and they are dedicated to making it to the final 4, for the first time in my life I can say that is a very likely outcome.
4. Ohio State Women's Basketball - They are not hitting on all cylinders yet but their victory over Louisville shows that the talent is there. You just don't beat a highly ranked team like that if you don't have talent.
Monday, December 9, 2019
Thursday, November 21, 2019
Post 40 man roster analysis
First, if anyone is reading this raise your hand.
OK. Let's continue.
The obvious Indians prospects to be added to the 40 man roster were added. I haven't found an analysis and don't have time to do one but let's postulate that the Indians were not the worst or not the best at protecting prospects from the Rule 5.
The Indians left a lot of dead weight on their 40-man roster. I used to get bent out of shape about this but many times those guys are just placeholders in case of a free agent signing or a trade where more guys come back then go out. So, this is a great wait and see time.
Looking at the Nick Goody DFA, you likely have to disconnect the dead weight from what happened to Goody. Letting Goody go meant that keeping him as a placeholder didn't make sense to the Indians and, rather, was something else. We will see what his DFA meant as time goes on.
I have to be honest, the prospects who DIDN'T get protected are not that great of prospects. The best of the bunch, Ka'ai Tom, is, at this point, a one year wonder. The rest of the guys are either too early in their career or are not high draft picks or guys with big tools. I can't be too mad at the Indians as they generally know what they are doing in these situations.
That DOES NOT mean the unprotected guys will still be with the Indians after the Rule 5 draft. Anyone who says they really can predict who will be picked in the Rule 5 is likely blowing smoke up your butt. No one really knows who will be drafted. If someone asked me to guess, I guess the Indians will lose 1 player in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft and there will be at least one surprise loss in the AAA phase. That surprise, of course, would be that whoever we lost was not able to be protected on the 38-man Columbus reserve list.
I will end this post by talking about Mark Mathias. Very interesting trade as one would guess the Indians suspected they would lose him in the Rule 5 and so got a rookie league catching prospect as a consolation prize instead of just the $100,000 if some team drafted Mathias. The reason it is interesting is this sort of trade is not normal in my experience at this time of year. My only thought here is that the Brewers told the Indians they were going to draft Mathias but that it would be to the Indians advantage to trade him now as compared to maybe getting only cash if Mathias was drafted. Given that I rated Mathias and Tom roughly the same in terms of susceptibility to being drafted, it will be interesting to see if Tom is drafted.
Time will tell and we should get a much better look about the time spring training starts.
OK. Let's continue.
The obvious Indians prospects to be added to the 40 man roster were added. I haven't found an analysis and don't have time to do one but let's postulate that the Indians were not the worst or not the best at protecting prospects from the Rule 5.
The Indians left a lot of dead weight on their 40-man roster. I used to get bent out of shape about this but many times those guys are just placeholders in case of a free agent signing or a trade where more guys come back then go out. So, this is a great wait and see time.
Looking at the Nick Goody DFA, you likely have to disconnect the dead weight from what happened to Goody. Letting Goody go meant that keeping him as a placeholder didn't make sense to the Indians and, rather, was something else. We will see what his DFA meant as time goes on.
I have to be honest, the prospects who DIDN'T get protected are not that great of prospects. The best of the bunch, Ka'ai Tom, is, at this point, a one year wonder. The rest of the guys are either too early in their career or are not high draft picks or guys with big tools. I can't be too mad at the Indians as they generally know what they are doing in these situations.
That DOES NOT mean the unprotected guys will still be with the Indians after the Rule 5 draft. Anyone who says they really can predict who will be picked in the Rule 5 is likely blowing smoke up your butt. No one really knows who will be drafted. If someone asked me to guess, I guess the Indians will lose 1 player in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft and there will be at least one surprise loss in the AAA phase. That surprise, of course, would be that whoever we lost was not able to be protected on the 38-man Columbus reserve list.
I will end this post by talking about Mark Mathias. Very interesting trade as one would guess the Indians suspected they would lose him in the Rule 5 and so got a rookie league catching prospect as a consolation prize instead of just the $100,000 if some team drafted Mathias. The reason it is interesting is this sort of trade is not normal in my experience at this time of year. My only thought here is that the Brewers told the Indians they were going to draft Mathias but that it would be to the Indians advantage to trade him now as compared to maybe getting only cash if Mathias was drafted. Given that I rated Mathias and Tom roughly the same in terms of susceptibility to being drafted, it will be interesting to see if Tom is drafted.
Time will tell and we should get a much better look about the time spring training starts.
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
It's 40 man roster AND AAA Reserve list day. What do we do?
OK, let's do this quickly.
.Here is our goal today: create a roster that has 39 players on it. That way we have one player spot open if we want to dip our toe into the Rule 5 ML draft coming up next month
Let's talk about the prospects we want to protect
Daniel Johnson - Definitely will protect
Triston McKenzie - Definitely protect. This is ESPECIALLY because he was injured all last year. Being injured would allow a team to stash him probably for the whole year as he 'recovered'.
Scott Moss - Definitely protect. He has potential and is ML ready and cheap in case we need a starter this coming year. So, he is good for the present AND the future.
Oscar Gonzalez - Tough call - So, you have a 21 year old Latin outfielder who had a great year at Lynchburg. Do you protect him? The last time the Indians were in this situation, 2016, they did not protect that guy, who was Anthony Santander. It took a while because Santander was injured and missed almost all of 2017 which played into Baltimore's hand as they stashed him on the DL almost all year and activated him in September when the rosters expanded. They then carried him over the winter and kept him on the 25 man roster in 2018 until he acquired the appropriate ML time that allowed the Orioles to send him to the minors without exposing him to waivers or returning him to the Indians. In 2019 Santander hit 20 HRs in 380 ABs for the Orioles while hitting .261. It did take 3 years before Santander was even a functional MLer, not even a full-time starter yet. If the Indians protect him and he has a hiccup in his development they might burn all their options on him before he makes it to the majors.
Ka'ai Tom - Tough call - Here is a guy who was mediocre most of his professional career and broke out last year. He is a little guy and, to me, does not stand out compared to all the other outfielders we have on the ML roster. This is a player development issue for the Indians. Does Tom project to be significantly better than anyone currently on our ML outfield roster and, if he does, will he get here quickly and can we live without an outfielder currently on the roster until Tom is ready?
Shoa-Ching Chiang - Don't protect - Unless a team thinks they can make him into a reliever I don't see him having the stuff or peripherals to be taken by another team. There is no upside to him, just present, albeit limited value.
Felix Fermin - Don't protect - His upside is limited and he is too far from the majors.
Dalbert Siri - Tough call - Only protect if we have dead wood on our ML pitching roster and we think Siri has more potential than those guys.
Argenis Angulo - Don't protect. I just don't see the present stuff in him that would get him selected.
Cam Hill - Tough call - See Siri above for situation in which he would be protected.
Juan Hillman - Tough call - His performance has been mediocre but he is young and has upside. I could easily see a team taking him and stashing him at the end of their bullpen until he acquires his 90 days of ML service that would allow the drafting team to keep him and send him to the minors.
Luis Oviedo - Tough call. Like Mejia last year he has intriguing enough stuff that some team might think they could use him as a reliever to get him his 90 day service time. Still, he is a long way off as he had a mediocre season at Lake County
OK, so we need to find room for 3 players (Johnson, McKenzie and Moss) and explore the available options to remove dead wood from the roster to add other players (Gonzalez, Tom, Siri and Hill)
So, here we go. Out current 40 man roster stands at 38. So we already have the spot for one prospect. Let's look at the rest of the roster and see who we can dump:
Pitchers on the bubble: Maton, Hoyt, Mejia, Wood. I think Hentges and Rodriguez are safe as are all the other 14 pitchers currently on the 40 man roster
Catchers - I think all three of Haase, Plawicki and Perez are safe as I think Haase has one option left.
Infielders on the bubble: Arroyo, Freeman, Valazquez and Chang. I think you keep only 3 of these guys and maybe 2. If it is 2 you keep Chang and Freeman. If it is 3 you add Arroyo.
Outfielders on the bubble: Greg Allen
Here is what I think we should do:
Maton - get rid of him and add Moss to the roster
Hoyt - Get rid of him and add Hillman to the roster
Allen - get rid of him and add Johnson to the roster
Wood - get rid of him and add Gonzalez to the roster
Mejia - get rid of him and add Hill to the roster
Valazquez - Get rid of him and add Tom to the roster
I see Arroyo having more current and potential value compared to Siri.
Now, when I say 'get rid of' I mean designate for assignment. You might lose all those guys above if we DFA them but, frankly, I don't them being above replacement value. Plus, we can stash them on the Columbus reserve list if they clear waivers. In that case they would only be available for the Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft. We also have room to stash Brady Aiken there as Fermin and Chiang. It's not like we have a lot of guys who are eligible for the Rule 5 who we would NOT be able to protect on the Columbus roster.
Here are the guys I think you protect at Columbus: Oviedo, Siri, Allen, Angulo, Hoyt, Mejia, Chiang, Fermin, Aiken, Jared Robinson, Tanner Tully, Michael Peoples, Moroff, Krauth, Mathias, Papi, Trenton Brooks, Connor Marabell, Gavin Collins, Mitch Longo, Francisco Perez, Kaminsky, Krieger, Lien Chen-Chu, Justin Garza, Henry Martinez. Plus, if they clear waivers you can always add Hoyt, Maton Wood, and Valazquez back.
So that is 30 and represents most of the guys who I think might be Rule 5 targets. That still gives the Indians room to add other guys who they think might be vulnerable to the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft where, if you lose a guy, you can't get him back.
Thursday, November 14, 2019
Non-baseball, Browns post
I am a baseball fan first and foremost but as a Clevelander I follow the Browns and Cavs, too.
Tonight I am ashamed to say that I am a fan of the Cleveland Browns.
Tonight I am ashamed to say that I am a fan of the Cleveland Browns.
Tuesday, October 8, 2019
Indians top 50 prospects
As the season ends it is time to give my two cents as to who the top Indians prospects are. For the first time I can remember this is a really hard assignment. There is no prospect that I think, at this point, is without significant question marks, including consensus top overall prospect Nolan Jones. Still, it's time to make my best guesses and let the prospects end up where they may.
1. Nolan Jones - Clearly he shows flashes but is not a finished product at all. I would like to see him get to the majors by mid-2020 but it is more likely, unless things change, for him to get here for a cup of coffee in 2021.
2. Tyler Freeman - Here is a guy without significant upside as players are constructed in the majors today. That is, he shows little power. Still, he is the best hitter for average in the system and, frankly, it isn't even close. Plus he is a middle infielder. He has lots of double power now and hopefully that will turn into HR power as he matures.
3. George Valera - I have seen this guy several times in MV games this year and he has incredibly easy power. It is really hard to put so green of a prospect this high in a ranking but this guy is special, in my opinion. Without jinxing him here is a guy who is on the same development path and potential that Matt Whitney was when he suffered that catastrophic injury. Whitney was on a path to be one the top, if not THE top prospect in the game and I think Valera could get there in a few years
4. James Karinchak - This guy is just filthy. His K/ip numbers are sick. He has work to do on his command but when the Indian ML catchers get to know him and if he gets the command that he should have, this guy could be an incredible and durable late inning reliever. It could happen as early as the start of 2020 and I think the Indians will give him that chance.
5. Triston McKenzie - Missed the whole 2019 season and has an injury history so it is really a stretch to even having him this highly ranked. But we all hold out hope he will quickly get back to his 2018 form.
6. Daniel Johnson - Pretty much a present value placement by me. He has good skills but they may or may not be more than 4th outfielder skills the way hitters are constructed in the major leagues these days. Still, I like him as much as I do Naquin and Luplow and more than I like Greg Allen so that's why he is here.
7. Bobby Bradley - The fact that the Indians sent him home after the minor league season is interesting. I think the Indians have him much lower ranked than I do and I doubt he makes their top 10. This is especially interesting as Bradley in the next Jesus Aguilar and Yandy Diaz and look how giving up on those prospects has worked for the Tribe! Bradley, in my opinion, needs to put his head down and just work. He had a bad ML debut and seemed to take that with him to the minors after his demotion. Long term the Indians need him so both he and the Indians better count on him and all involved need to work to get him to the majors and to the point where he can consistently show his power and plate discipline to be an above-average ML player.
8. Daniel Espino - He is guy with a big arm who could move quickly if he becomes a reliever. However, I think he will be developed as a starter and, like Juan Hillman, may struggle a little to find his footing. Plus I think he will be pushed to Lake County next year which may actually SLOW his development if he scuffles against more advanced hitters.
9. Scott Moss - As a lefty, here's another Cleveland pitcher like Beiber and Civale who may overachieve in the majors
10. Logan Allen - More upside than Moss but much more work to be done as his struggles in Columbus show. Like Moss, he has the potential to really help the Tribe in 2020 if everything smooths out for him.
11. Bo Naylor - Great season by a young guy playing up at Lake County. But the low BA still concerns me. The triple double of 2B/3B and HR is exciting, though.
12. Ethan Hankins - Most others will have him higher than this but he hasn't shown performance yet. 2020 will be an important year for him as, likely, he will spend the whole season at Lake County. If he starts in extended spring training or struggles at Lake County then he will be in the grind for a while. If he thrives at LC and earns a promotion to Lynchburg, he may be on the past track, shooting up to the top 3 Indians prospects by next fall.
13. Ka'ai Tom - An unlikely guy on this list, he just hit and hit and hit and hit with some power and, did I mention, hit at AA and AAA. He could get some PT in the majors in 2020, especially if we sign no outfielders (likely).
14. Ernie Clement - The Indians love this guy and he has done nothing in the minors this year to change that. His placement on the AZL roster shows he has good status with the ML team.
15. Kyle Nelson - A lefty reliever with filthy stuff, Nelson could easily play in the majors in 2020.
16. Bryan Lavastida - This guy is a catcher who rakes and projects to get better at all phases of the game, pretty dramatically, in 2020. He is a guy to keep an eye on.
17. Nick Sandlin - He would be up closer to Karinchak but his injury makes it questionable if he can even get to the majors in 2020 and if he requires surgery, it may not be until 2021, at best.
18. Luis Oviedo - Talk about a guy in the grind. Oviedo had the prototypical hot/cold season which, to me, means that he is just slowly learning his craft against older competition. Nothing to worry about but nothing to write home about, either.
19. Oscar Gonzalez - A guy with potential but a long way off unless something changes
20. Robert Broom - A college reliever with sick numbers in the Indians' minor league system. Go figure!?!?!
21. Adam Scott - Another college starter who came on this season. For these guys AAA seems to be the great separator. We will see what he does next year.
22. Sam Hentges - Recorded the worst year of Indians' minor league pitcher this year. He is in the grind. Hentges is my surprise prospect for 2020 and all the Indians have to do with him to make it happen is one thing: Move him to the bullpen. If they do that and he stays healthy and keeps his head on straight, he will be in Cleveland by the middle of July 2020 and could be here from then on if he doesn't get overwhelmed early. He and Karinchak could make a great 1-2 punch as setup men or form a 3-headed monster at closer with Brad Hand.
23. Juan Hillman - In the grind. I don't know if he will ever make it but at least he is still moving up levels. If he can start 2020 in Akron and succeed there, he could be on a near-vertical trajectory.
24. Joe Naranjo - First 2019 hitter on this list. None of the 2019 hitter draftees impressed me but Naranjo at least had intriguing stats.
25. Will Benson - His LC year is beginning to look like a veteran of the league loading up against greener prospects. 2020 is a big year for him. We are all waiting for him to break out.
26. Brayan Rocchio - Did not show the same flash as in 2018. Just looks like another decent prospect now. A move up to Lake County in 2020 and a full season at LC will tell us more.
27. Aaron Bracho - I will give him this year as he missed all of last year but, like Rocchio, he has a lot to prove in 2020.
28. Jose Fermin
29. Marcos Gonzalez
30. Gabriel Rodriguez
31. Junior Sanquintin
32. Mark Mathias
33. Yu Chang
34. Raynel Delgado
35. Yordys Valdes
35. Victor Nova
36. Eric Haase
37. Jonathon Rodrigez
38. Christian Cairo
38. Aaron PInto
39. Jean Carlos Mejia
40. Jean Mota
41. Steven Kwan
42, Dalbert Siri
43. Shao Ching Chiang
44. Cam Hill
45. Yainer Diaz
45. Richard Palacios
46. Lenny Torres
47. Carlos Vargas
48. Will Bartlett
49. Skyler Arias
50. Kirk McCarthy
1. Nolan Jones - Clearly he shows flashes but is not a finished product at all. I would like to see him get to the majors by mid-2020 but it is more likely, unless things change, for him to get here for a cup of coffee in 2021.
2. Tyler Freeman - Here is a guy without significant upside as players are constructed in the majors today. That is, he shows little power. Still, he is the best hitter for average in the system and, frankly, it isn't even close. Plus he is a middle infielder. He has lots of double power now and hopefully that will turn into HR power as he matures.
3. George Valera - I have seen this guy several times in MV games this year and he has incredibly easy power. It is really hard to put so green of a prospect this high in a ranking but this guy is special, in my opinion. Without jinxing him here is a guy who is on the same development path and potential that Matt Whitney was when he suffered that catastrophic injury. Whitney was on a path to be one the top, if not THE top prospect in the game and I think Valera could get there in a few years
4. James Karinchak - This guy is just filthy. His K/ip numbers are sick. He has work to do on his command but when the Indian ML catchers get to know him and if he gets the command that he should have, this guy could be an incredible and durable late inning reliever. It could happen as early as the start of 2020 and I think the Indians will give him that chance.
5. Triston McKenzie - Missed the whole 2019 season and has an injury history so it is really a stretch to even having him this highly ranked. But we all hold out hope he will quickly get back to his 2018 form.
6. Daniel Johnson - Pretty much a present value placement by me. He has good skills but they may or may not be more than 4th outfielder skills the way hitters are constructed in the major leagues these days. Still, I like him as much as I do Naquin and Luplow and more than I like Greg Allen so that's why he is here.
7. Bobby Bradley - The fact that the Indians sent him home after the minor league season is interesting. I think the Indians have him much lower ranked than I do and I doubt he makes their top 10. This is especially interesting as Bradley in the next Jesus Aguilar and Yandy Diaz and look how giving up on those prospects has worked for the Tribe! Bradley, in my opinion, needs to put his head down and just work. He had a bad ML debut and seemed to take that with him to the minors after his demotion. Long term the Indians need him so both he and the Indians better count on him and all involved need to work to get him to the majors and to the point where he can consistently show his power and plate discipline to be an above-average ML player.
8. Daniel Espino - He is guy with a big arm who could move quickly if he becomes a reliever. However, I think he will be developed as a starter and, like Juan Hillman, may struggle a little to find his footing. Plus I think he will be pushed to Lake County next year which may actually SLOW his development if he scuffles against more advanced hitters.
9. Scott Moss - As a lefty, here's another Cleveland pitcher like Beiber and Civale who may overachieve in the majors
10. Logan Allen - More upside than Moss but much more work to be done as his struggles in Columbus show. Like Moss, he has the potential to really help the Tribe in 2020 if everything smooths out for him.
11. Bo Naylor - Great season by a young guy playing up at Lake County. But the low BA still concerns me. The triple double of 2B/3B and HR is exciting, though.
12. Ethan Hankins - Most others will have him higher than this but he hasn't shown performance yet. 2020 will be an important year for him as, likely, he will spend the whole season at Lake County. If he starts in extended spring training or struggles at Lake County then he will be in the grind for a while. If he thrives at LC and earns a promotion to Lynchburg, he may be on the past track, shooting up to the top 3 Indians prospects by next fall.
13. Ka'ai Tom - An unlikely guy on this list, he just hit and hit and hit and hit with some power and, did I mention, hit at AA and AAA. He could get some PT in the majors in 2020, especially if we sign no outfielders (likely).
14. Ernie Clement - The Indians love this guy and he has done nothing in the minors this year to change that. His placement on the AZL roster shows he has good status with the ML team.
15. Kyle Nelson - A lefty reliever with filthy stuff, Nelson could easily play in the majors in 2020.
16. Bryan Lavastida - This guy is a catcher who rakes and projects to get better at all phases of the game, pretty dramatically, in 2020. He is a guy to keep an eye on.
17. Nick Sandlin - He would be up closer to Karinchak but his injury makes it questionable if he can even get to the majors in 2020 and if he requires surgery, it may not be until 2021, at best.
18. Luis Oviedo - Talk about a guy in the grind. Oviedo had the prototypical hot/cold season which, to me, means that he is just slowly learning his craft against older competition. Nothing to worry about but nothing to write home about, either.
19. Oscar Gonzalez - A guy with potential but a long way off unless something changes
20. Robert Broom - A college reliever with sick numbers in the Indians' minor league system. Go figure!?!?!
21. Adam Scott - Another college starter who came on this season. For these guys AAA seems to be the great separator. We will see what he does next year.
22. Sam Hentges - Recorded the worst year of Indians' minor league pitcher this year. He is in the grind. Hentges is my surprise prospect for 2020 and all the Indians have to do with him to make it happen is one thing: Move him to the bullpen. If they do that and he stays healthy and keeps his head on straight, he will be in Cleveland by the middle of July 2020 and could be here from then on if he doesn't get overwhelmed early. He and Karinchak could make a great 1-2 punch as setup men or form a 3-headed monster at closer with Brad Hand.
23. Juan Hillman - In the grind. I don't know if he will ever make it but at least he is still moving up levels. If he can start 2020 in Akron and succeed there, he could be on a near-vertical trajectory.
24. Joe Naranjo - First 2019 hitter on this list. None of the 2019 hitter draftees impressed me but Naranjo at least had intriguing stats.
25. Will Benson - His LC year is beginning to look like a veteran of the league loading up against greener prospects. 2020 is a big year for him. We are all waiting for him to break out.
26. Brayan Rocchio - Did not show the same flash as in 2018. Just looks like another decent prospect now. A move up to Lake County in 2020 and a full season at LC will tell us more.
27. Aaron Bracho - I will give him this year as he missed all of last year but, like Rocchio, he has a lot to prove in 2020.
28. Jose Fermin
29. Marcos Gonzalez
30. Gabriel Rodriguez
31. Junior Sanquintin
32. Mark Mathias
33. Yu Chang
34. Raynel Delgado
35. Yordys Valdes
35. Victor Nova
36. Eric Haase
37. Jonathon Rodrigez
38. Christian Cairo
38. Aaron PInto
39. Jean Carlos Mejia
40. Jean Mota
41. Steven Kwan
42, Dalbert Siri
43. Shao Ching Chiang
44. Cam Hill
45. Yainer Diaz
45. Richard Palacios
46. Lenny Torres
47. Carlos Vargas
48. Will Bartlett
49. Skyler Arias
50. Kirk McCarthy
Monday, October 7, 2019
Quick non-baseball thoughts
I honestly think Ohio State's football coaching staff is better this year, overall, than in any year under Urban Meyer. They may not get to the final 4 if they have a hiccup along the way but I think they are better prepared and react better to in-game situations/trends than in the past. If that latter thing was a point of emphasis this year, well, consider it improved dramatically...so far.
When I was a little younger the expression was "Well that is (fill in time spent) I will never get back". It usually applied to situations that turned out not to be satisfying and, as the impression implies, were a total waste of time. That is what I said after watching the Browns game tonight. Total waste of time and, worse, players looking like they (a) were totally confused and frustrated that things were going so badly, (b) totally mad that Baker Mayfield couldn't make the plays necessary to get them back in the game, (c) as the game wore on, totally looking like they were going through the motions trying not to get hurt so the they could continue getting a paycheck and, finally (d) Fred Kitchens looking forlorn and dazed on the sidelines, telling me that he has totally lost control of this team and that he is probably in over his head as a head coach of THIS team at THIS point in his experience as a coach. The comical thing: That is the way I remember Belichik looking when he coached the Browns. Wouldn't that be hilarious....
College football recruiting and the subsequent transfer portal are interesting to study. What your recruiting class in any given year looks like on October of the year of a kid's high school senior year and what that recruiting class looks like after the December early signing period and after the transfer portal shuffle over the following two years is amazing. When talent evaluators have to wait until the summer after that player's sophomore year to evaluate the recruiting class from two years prior AND NONE OF IT HAS TO DO WITH PERFORMANCE BUT, RATHER, ON PERSONNEL SHUFFLING speaks volumes. Ah, for the old days of no early commitments and no transfer portal when your recruiting class could be judged early and only changed due to injuries or overachieving. Those were the days.
When I was a little younger the expression was "Well that is (fill in time spent) I will never get back". It usually applied to situations that turned out not to be satisfying and, as the impression implies, were a total waste of time. That is what I said after watching the Browns game tonight. Total waste of time and, worse, players looking like they (a) were totally confused and frustrated that things were going so badly, (b) totally mad that Baker Mayfield couldn't make the plays necessary to get them back in the game, (c) as the game wore on, totally looking like they were going through the motions trying not to get hurt so the they could continue getting a paycheck and, finally (d) Fred Kitchens looking forlorn and dazed on the sidelines, telling me that he has totally lost control of this team and that he is probably in over his head as a head coach of THIS team at THIS point in his experience as a coach. The comical thing: That is the way I remember Belichik looking when he coached the Browns. Wouldn't that be hilarious....
College football recruiting and the subsequent transfer portal are interesting to study. What your recruiting class in any given year looks like on October of the year of a kid's high school senior year and what that recruiting class looks like after the December early signing period and after the transfer portal shuffle over the following two years is amazing. When talent evaluators have to wait until the summer after that player's sophomore year to evaluate the recruiting class from two years prior AND NONE OF IT HAS TO DO WITH PERFORMANCE BUT, RATHER, ON PERSONNEL SHUFFLING speaks volumes. Ah, for the old days of no early commitments and no transfer portal when your recruiting class could be judged early and only changed due to injuries or overachieving. Those were the days.
Of Yandy Diaz, Gio Urshela,Asdrubal Cabrera, the Indians FO/Management team and Francisco Lindor
As I saw Yandy Diaz blast his two HRs in the wildcard game I thought to myself "Wow, baby, here it comes". The "it" is of course the internet reaction to letting Yandy and Gio go.
As a person who has blogged repeatedly over the years about the bonehead moves the Indians have and have not made, let me weigh in on this one and other things.
Yandy - Let's get this out there once and for all: the Indians failed with Yandy Diaz. That being said, other teams have failed with other players. It sometimes take being traded to get the player to wake up and smell the coffee. It also sometimes takes a change of scenery and a different person saying EXACTLY the same thing in a slightly different way for a player to respond.
So Yandy is likely to become the Yandy we all wished he would have become here. Unfortunately for the Rays he will do it at first base or, more likely, at DH.
Still, just like Jesus Aguilar, if they would have stuck with Yandy a little more and given him more extended playing time, he could have, in an average world, ended up like he is today.
I was really pissed about them letting Aguilar go for nothing. That was a boneheaded move, IMHO, and they paid a lot more for Encarnacion. Paying for Encarnacion is not the issue as all good, playoff-likely teams pay for players instead of gambling on internal options. It is that we are the Cleveland Indians and when you play in the AL Central maybe you gamble on internal options. Maybe one. Not an entire outfield but maybe one.
So the story of Yandy and Jesus is done. Water under the bridge. Lesson learned. Right?
Well, there is a guy at AAA, Bobby Bradley, that is on the road to become the next Yandy and Jesus if the Indians don't get their heads out of their butts.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. What happens if you get fooled 3 imtes?
One last point on this. The Indians gave Jake Bauers extended playing time this year after his failed second half with Tampa last year. And he failed again. So what did the Indians do? They had a long exit interview with him essentially telling BAUERS to get his head out of butt. Now ain't that the pot calling the kettle black?!?!
Urshela is another story. Again, the Indians gave this guy playing time and he didn't hit. He was a great fielder but he didn't hit. They could have groomed him as a utility infielder but, instead, we ended the year with Flaherty, Freeman and Valesquez on the team and Arroyo on the DH. I would have rather just kept Urshela. By all accounts he was a good clubhouse guy. But you know what he wasn't? He wasn't a AAAA veteran who would take what he was given and then ask "Can I have some more please?" Trust me, even without the hitting he has shown this year, I would have taken Urshela for his defense. But not the Indians. They let him go for nothing because they had other options (read: Erik Gonzalez) and then traded that other option away this past winter, leaving them with AAAA guys and an under-ready Yu Chang to fill in when needed.
You have to groom your own guys and give them a chance to flourish. If they don't you make them utility guys or keep working with them in the minors until they develop or leave as 6-year free agents.
Now on to Asdrubal Cabrera.. It takes two to tango and I don't know if he wanted to come back here this year. However, had he come here he would have only cost us a few dollars and, frankly, he might have been the difference we needed down the stretch, especially when Ramirez and then Kipnis went down with injuries. I asked for the Indians to get him and they didn't. He has certainly helped the Nationals, hasn't he...even against the Indians, if you remember.
Finally, our FO is rock solid. They Puig/Reyes/Allen/Moss deal was a classic. The management group gave the GM unreasonable requirements and the Indians stuck to those. Yeah, I didn't like losing Brantley and you can easily make the case that having him cost us the AL Central and the Wild Card. However, the Twins and Rays are both down 2-0. Would he have made any difference in the playoffs? I don't think so, especially as his signing may have impacted that result? Maybe, but I don't see Brantley moving the needle in the playoffs and given that we made it down to the last weekend before being eliminated, I think it was a gamble worth taking. I mean, even the Astros would only go for two years with Brantley and he sucked up that deal almost instantaneously so you know he didn't leave much, if any, money on the table. The Astros wanted him and I suspect they way outbid other teams for him to sign him early. They got their man who is clearly a help to a team with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. In hindsight, a team without Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco would not have benefitted so much from Brantley and had he been here, we still don't make it to the WS, and maybe not to the AL championship series.
So, the management team IS to blame for being cheap. But I don't know if their cheapness is Major League cheapness. I think it is more fiscal responsibility.
One last thought: Now that we are talking about cheap management, let's talk about Lindor. Right now the Indians should lock him up with a Mike Trout-level contract. I mean right now. He is a once in a lifetime ballplayer. I live in St. Louis and I can tell you that having HOF players and great current players bring in fans. That is part of tradition. The Indians drew fans in the 90s as much because of the fans getting to see star players as they did because of the winning. The Cardinals do this all the time. I am telling you as I have said for a long time now, you cannot beat the bronze statues outside of Busch Stadium. To say that statuses bring fans to the game is really crazy. But it is the tradition and those statues represent tradition. Lindor is the latest tradition for the Indians. If he will sign here then sign him NOW. One warning for Indians fans, however. It may just be that the size of the contract that would be necessary to keep Lindor in Cleveland might be EXACTLY what causes him not to sign here. He would have to see that a $25-30 million a year contract would seriously hamstring the Indians from bringing in other veteran pieces, or keeping current stars, thus making our long-term competitiveness in question. Mike Trout is facing the same thing in LA and don't think that Lindor doesn't see that. He may just decide that he wants to play in NY or in LA where he can make his money AND have a realistic chance to be on a perennial winning team as there will be dollars for other guys. But you make him the 10 year contract offer. And you do it now AND you do it in addition to the current payroll. You don't have to spend more money and can even cut the budget for the rest of the team a little to make up for the large contract for Lindor. But you sign Lindor now. THAT will bring fans to the park.
As a person who has blogged repeatedly over the years about the bonehead moves the Indians have and have not made, let me weigh in on this one and other things.
Yandy - Let's get this out there once and for all: the Indians failed with Yandy Diaz. That being said, other teams have failed with other players. It sometimes take being traded to get the player to wake up and smell the coffee. It also sometimes takes a change of scenery and a different person saying EXACTLY the same thing in a slightly different way for a player to respond.
So Yandy is likely to become the Yandy we all wished he would have become here. Unfortunately for the Rays he will do it at first base or, more likely, at DH.
Still, just like Jesus Aguilar, if they would have stuck with Yandy a little more and given him more extended playing time, he could have, in an average world, ended up like he is today.
I was really pissed about them letting Aguilar go for nothing. That was a boneheaded move, IMHO, and they paid a lot more for Encarnacion. Paying for Encarnacion is not the issue as all good, playoff-likely teams pay for players instead of gambling on internal options. It is that we are the Cleveland Indians and when you play in the AL Central maybe you gamble on internal options. Maybe one. Not an entire outfield but maybe one.
So the story of Yandy and Jesus is done. Water under the bridge. Lesson learned. Right?
Well, there is a guy at AAA, Bobby Bradley, that is on the road to become the next Yandy and Jesus if the Indians don't get their heads out of their butts.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. What happens if you get fooled 3 imtes?
One last point on this. The Indians gave Jake Bauers extended playing time this year after his failed second half with Tampa last year. And he failed again. So what did the Indians do? They had a long exit interview with him essentially telling BAUERS to get his head out of butt. Now ain't that the pot calling the kettle black?!?!
Urshela is another story. Again, the Indians gave this guy playing time and he didn't hit. He was a great fielder but he didn't hit. They could have groomed him as a utility infielder but, instead, we ended the year with Flaherty, Freeman and Valesquez on the team and Arroyo on the DH. I would have rather just kept Urshela. By all accounts he was a good clubhouse guy. But you know what he wasn't? He wasn't a AAAA veteran who would take what he was given and then ask "Can I have some more please?" Trust me, even without the hitting he has shown this year, I would have taken Urshela for his defense. But not the Indians. They let him go for nothing because they had other options (read: Erik Gonzalez) and then traded that other option away this past winter, leaving them with AAAA guys and an under-ready Yu Chang to fill in when needed.
You have to groom your own guys and give them a chance to flourish. If they don't you make them utility guys or keep working with them in the minors until they develop or leave as 6-year free agents.
Now on to Asdrubal Cabrera.. It takes two to tango and I don't know if he wanted to come back here this year. However, had he come here he would have only cost us a few dollars and, frankly, he might have been the difference we needed down the stretch, especially when Ramirez and then Kipnis went down with injuries. I asked for the Indians to get him and they didn't. He has certainly helped the Nationals, hasn't he...even against the Indians, if you remember.
Finally, our FO is rock solid. They Puig/Reyes/Allen/Moss deal was a classic. The management group gave the GM unreasonable requirements and the Indians stuck to those. Yeah, I didn't like losing Brantley and you can easily make the case that having him cost us the AL Central and the Wild Card. However, the Twins and Rays are both down 2-0. Would he have made any difference in the playoffs? I don't think so, especially as his signing may have impacted that result? Maybe, but I don't see Brantley moving the needle in the playoffs and given that we made it down to the last weekend before being eliminated, I think it was a gamble worth taking. I mean, even the Astros would only go for two years with Brantley and he sucked up that deal almost instantaneously so you know he didn't leave much, if any, money on the table. The Astros wanted him and I suspect they way outbid other teams for him to sign him early. They got their man who is clearly a help to a team with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. In hindsight, a team without Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco would not have benefitted so much from Brantley and had he been here, we still don't make it to the WS, and maybe not to the AL championship series.
So, the management team IS to blame for being cheap. But I don't know if their cheapness is Major League cheapness. I think it is more fiscal responsibility.
One last thought: Now that we are talking about cheap management, let's talk about Lindor. Right now the Indians should lock him up with a Mike Trout-level contract. I mean right now. He is a once in a lifetime ballplayer. I live in St. Louis and I can tell you that having HOF players and great current players bring in fans. That is part of tradition. The Indians drew fans in the 90s as much because of the fans getting to see star players as they did because of the winning. The Cardinals do this all the time. I am telling you as I have said for a long time now, you cannot beat the bronze statues outside of Busch Stadium. To say that statuses bring fans to the game is really crazy. But it is the tradition and those statues represent tradition. Lindor is the latest tradition for the Indians. If he will sign here then sign him NOW. One warning for Indians fans, however. It may just be that the size of the contract that would be necessary to keep Lindor in Cleveland might be EXACTLY what causes him not to sign here. He would have to see that a $25-30 million a year contract would seriously hamstring the Indians from bringing in other veteran pieces, or keeping current stars, thus making our long-term competitiveness in question. Mike Trout is facing the same thing in LA and don't think that Lindor doesn't see that. He may just decide that he wants to play in NY or in LA where he can make his money AND have a realistic chance to be on a perennial winning team as there will be dollars for other guys. But you make him the 10 year contract offer. And you do it now AND you do it in addition to the current payroll. You don't have to spend more money and can even cut the budget for the rest of the team a little to make up for the large contract for Lindor. But you sign Lindor now. THAT will bring fans to the park.
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