Prospect Evaluation: The Pitchers

 Normally, your 40-man roster in the winter includes 22-25 pitchers, depending on the state of your farm system, your major league team and who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

Right now, based on the projected returnees from our current roster, I estimate that we have 15 pitchers who I think we should keep.   

That leaves room for us to add, in some way, pitchers to the roster.   Let's take a look at the Rule 5-eligible pitchers who might warrant being added to the roster to protect them this winter.

CODY MORRIS

SUMMARY -  Morris spent more than half the season on the DL.  When he came back he looked like a major league pitcher.   He was throwing mid 90s with a great breaking ball.   He looked dominant in AA and then, surprisingly, moved up to AAA and looked even more dominant.  

PROS:  He looks like he can help in 2022 and then even more so in future years.   Starting pitchers with his credentials don't make it through the Rule 5

CONS: He has an injury history and not a very long track record, at all, in the upper minors.  

DECISION: PUT ON THE ROSTER.  As I said, he won't make it through the Rule 5 and, as a guy with success in AAA, he appears almost major-league ready.

JUAN HILLMAN

SUMMARY: Hillman has had a slow but steady development in the Indians farm system.  He has appeared on Indians' prospect lists for years.  He has rarely flashed lights out stuff but he has alwasy shown the ability to string good stretches together.   He is currently 24 years old and has not really pitched significantly in AAA.   Also, given that his first year was in 2015, if he is not rostered he becomes a minor league free agent this winter and can sign with any club.

PROS:  He has a good prospect pedigree and his advance is steady.  He should be ready for his first ML work in 2022.   He can walk as a minor league free agent.

CONS: He is active on social media which the Indians are not fans of.  He has not shown lights out tools so his upsdie currently looks like 5th starter, mop-up guy and, if they roster him, they might want to look at him in the bullpen. 

DECISION: ROSTER HIM.   This is not the ideal decision but we are out of time.  Not rostering him means we don't think he is a prospect any more.  This decision will play out long before the Rule 5 draft as he will have to be rostered right after the WS is done, long before the ML rosters are frozen (against adding more of your own prospects) before the Rule 5 draft.   

JOEY CANTILLO

SUMMARY: Cantillo was an important part of the Clevinger trade to San Diego.  HE missed essentially all of this season and was listed in the teens in recent Indians prospect rankings.  So he is not an incredibly good prospect and hasn't really pitched in 2 years due to COVID and his arm injury.  He has never pitched in AA.

PROS: Highly ranked prospect, left handed.

CONS: Injured all year which might give teams pause in drafting him, along with not pitching above A ball.  The A ball thing and his injury this year means rostering him may create a dead roster space (not helping the ML team until 2024 while using all his options up before he is ML ready. 

DECISION: ROSTER HIM.   Another tough call but just think of Luis Oviedo who now belongs to the Pirates.  Cantillo fits that same mold and we can't really afford to lose a big part of the Clevinger trade to the Rule 5.   Remember, it is NOT a performance issue, it is an injury issue.   If we don't protect him it is very likely that we will lose him.

KONNOR PILKINGTON

SUMMARY: The only player received in the Cesar Hernandez trade, Pilkington is a pitchability guy who is solidly through with AA ball.   This means that he could be projected to be a starting pitching option for Cleveland in the last half of 2022 or the beginning of 2023.

PROS:  His conquering of AA means there is something good there, despite the fact that he is not a highly ranked prospect.  

CONS: Not a highly ranked prospect.

DECISION: ROSTER HIM - This is a tough call for me but I don't think for the Indians front office staff.   When you trade a year and a half of the defending AL doubles champion and gold glove second baseman to a division rival AND that division rival thinks so much of that guy that they use their stud rookie secondbaseman as trade bait for a setup guy, you can bet the FO guys will roster him.   If they trade Hernandez and lose Pilkington to the Rule 5 it would be major egg on their face and this FO doesn't like egg on their face.

ADAM SCOTT

SUMMARY: He looked like he was going to be the lefty version of Cody Morris as, like Morris, he was hurt most of the year and burned through AA on his return.   The difference is that Scott stalled at AAA a little more than Morris and, unfortunately, there wasn't enough time to evaluate his worth as a close to the majors option.  

PROS; Scott was a relatively high draft pick who appeared on the end of some prospect rankings for the Indians.  He is left-handed and, if the results this year are to be trusted, relatively close to the majors in terms of his readiness.

CONS: There just isn't enough data that would compel the Indians to protect him.  

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER HIM - Unless he is placed in the Arizona Fall League and just dominates, teams may not see his potential.   That being said, he is a relatively low risk Rule 5 pick as he could easily be hiddent for a year as a lefty long reliever.   On paper, he looks like a safer gamble than Luis Oviedo and we know how that ended.

JUAN MOTA

SUMMMARY: Huge fastball, not much control

PROS: His fastball means that, one day, he could project as a major league reliever and a team could dream on him putting it together this year.

CONS: He has the one loud tool but not the performance to say that tool is anymore close the ML ready..  

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER.   There are just too many question marks here.   That being said, he fits the profile of a Rule 5 pick but I think we should let that happen.   I think Mota comes back by the end of spring training if he is drafted.  Just too much work left to be done on this project to keep around.  That being said, a

JERSON RAMIREZ

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER - He is still too young and inexperienced.   We won't have the roster space and we can't have any more dead roster space than we will already.

There may be other guys like Tim Herrin and Nic Enright who might be interesting but, with their stuff, they look like, at best, the next coming of Cam Hill.

OTHER PITCHING PROSPECTS

There will be several other minor league pitchers under scrutiny for the Rule 5 draft.   If we DFA guys like Anthony Gose, Cam Hill, Kyle Nelson, Scott Moss and Justin Garza and they make it through waivers and re-sign with us they will be targets.  

Guys like Aaron Pinto, Nic Enright, Kirk McCarty, Robert Broom, Tanner Tully, Ben Krauth, Skylar Arias, Dakody Clemmer and a number of others have an outside chance of getting drafted in the Rule 5, either in the major or minor league portions, depending if they are on the Columbus list.

Prospect Evaluation: the outfielders

 OK, it's time to kick off the discussion of the pros and cons of which prospects we want to roster this winter.  As I have said, this is a tricky proposition as for each guy we put on the roster in November it is likely that a current player will either be removed by DFA or trade or release.  

So let's start with our outfield prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 this year:

WILL BENSON 

SUMMARY:Benson has been on Indians' prospect lists since he was drafted in 2016.  He has struggled with his BA (.212) although is power and OBP numbers remain strong, the latter due to a strong walk rate.  He has decent speed and a good arm.  He has 5 1/2 years in to his minor league career so the Indians will control his rights for one more year if they don't lose him in the Rule 5.

PROS TO ROSTERING HIM:  With his work this year at AA and AAA it appears that Benson may be on the cusp of a breakthrough.  He has power, speed and good OB skills, making him a relatively perfect 4th/5th outfielder for a rebuilding team if they take him in the Rule 5.

CONS:  Benson has a historically low BA and strikes out at a high rate.  He only hit .155 at AAA since his promotion, making him less attractive to a team fishing to find quality Rule 5 eligible prospects.

DECISION:  DON'T ROSTER - I see it as a low likelihood he will be drafted and very little chance he would last with his new team even if they did draft him.

GEORGE VALERA

SUMMARY: Valera was the #5 prospect coming into this season for the Indians.  He rose up to AA this year after starting the year at High A.  His numbers have remained solid as he moved up the ladder.

PROS: He is a top prospect with very good power which will likely only get better.  He has a chance to be a 5-tool player.

CONS: Likely he won't get to the majors until 2023 at the earliest meaning he will be dead weight on the 40 man for maybe 2 years.

DECISION: ROSTER

OSCAR GONZALEZ

SUMMARY: Gonzalez has always shown flashes of becoming a power-hitting outfielder.  He has little speed and is only an acceptable OFer, probably limited to LF in the long run and his walk rates are dismal, although they have improved this year along with his power.   If he isn't rostered he will likely be lost as a 6-year minor league free agent.

PROS:  He is close to major league ready.   He hits for power and he hits for average.   If we don't roster him we will likely lose him for nothing.   We don't have a lot of outfielders who could play in Cleveland next year and Gonzalez is one of those so adding him to the roster adds depth for 2022.  He is still young at 23 so could be approaching his prime as a player.

CONS: Gonzalez has never appeared high on Indians' prospect lists.  His breakout year might be a mirage.  His low walk rate may be exposed in the majors.

DECISION: ROSTER.  The Indians would be gambling on Gonzalez continuing to progress on his hit and power tools as well as his plate discipline.   Given his young age it would likely be a mistake to allow him to escape as a 6-year free agent, especially considering the dearth of outfield prospects who could impact the ML team in 2022.

STEVEN KWAN

SUMMARY:  Kwan has steadily worked his way up the Indians' system.  He profiles very similarly to Ka'ai Tom as he doesn't have great power speed or OB skills and his defense is only average.  Basically he is solid across the board with his hit tool being above average.   His most compelling stat is that he is 23 and at AAA.

PROS: He is young and dominating, hit-tool-wise, in the high minors.   He is an on-base machine and has shown a little power this year.  He is almost major-league ready, which makes him a rarity in the Indians' organization.  Plus his swing-and-miss percentage is sick, easily being the best in the minors.

CONS: He isn't a true centerfielder.  His hit tool is good but he doesn't have a lot of speed.   While he is a good player his tools don't flash as being any more than a 4th outfielder.   We saw how Ka'ai Tom was exposed this year and I don't see Kwan being any different.  

SUMMARY: DON'T ROSTER - This is a tough one but the Indians didn't even want to bring back Tom when the Pirates offered him back recently.   I see value in Kwan but I just don't see us spending a roster spot on him.  He profiles as a likely Rule 5 selection based on his AAA experience and his ability to function as a 4th outfielder but  I think it is worth the gamble to not roster him.

ALEXFRI PLAMEZ

SUMMARY:   This is Planez's first full season in professional baseball and his season was clearly breakout as he oozes power, speed and defense potential, including an above-average arm.   He is on the upswing and likely will breakthrough to the Indians' top 30 prospects this winter.

PROS: A guy that is being screwed by the pandemic and the ridiculous Rule 5 rules regarding Latin signees, his tools just ooze superstar potential if he puts it all together.   Although he has only played at low A he could easily be hidden on the roster of a team like Baltimore or Arizona next year with the goal of getting a stud player for peanuts.   

CONS: He is so far away from the majors that rostering him now means another dead roster spot for a couple of years and blowing through option years without a realistic chance of impacting the major league club before 2024, at the earliest.  

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER.   I love this guy's tools and how he obviously is about to go to a steeper part of his improvement curve.  I think he currently projects as an average to slightly above average major league outfielder but a team that drafted him would be foolish, given how far away from the majors he is.

NEXT TIME; Middle infield prospects eligible for the Rule 5.  Which ones should we roster.

Roster Debate: The Starting Pitchers and the Catchers

 As we make our way to the last two groups, starting pitchers and catchers on the 40-man roster, here is what we have.

STARTING PITCHERS

Shane Beiber - KEEP 

Aaron Civale - KEEP

Zach Plesac - KEEP

Cal Quantrill - KEEP

Triston McKenzie - KEEP

Eli Morgan - KEEP - This is an important roster spot but, if everyone is healthy and effective, Morgan will be depth at AAA.   He can hone his stuff down there knowing how he hast to attack batters based on his stuff and just learn to attack them that way.

Carlos Vargas - KEEP (maybe) - Most difficult decision we have yet encountered in these blog posts.   We may have forgotten but the last time Vargas played was in 2019 and that was at Mahoning Valley.   He has never played one inning of full-season minor league baseball as the 2020 season was cancelled.   This is a good example of a team shooting themselves in the foot.   They loved Vargas enough as a long-term prospect to place him on the 40 man at a very early stage in his development.   Then the pandemic hit, then Tommy John surgery.   So they have a player who likely is 3 years away from the majors with maybe only 2 minor league options left, unless through appeal or through a change in the collective bargaining agreement he gets that extra option year.   However, even if that is true, he will still likely create a "dead" roster spot for the next two years, at least, meaning the ML team won't get anything out of the player AND will have reduced roster flexibility as a result of rostering a guy not prepared to help the major league team in the near future.  So, most difficult decision but I guess you have made your bed with him and now you have to sleep in it and see if he healthy and how he advances next spring.

CATCHERS

Austin Hedges - KEEP -  Look, when he comes up I think "Chicken Little" and I am yelling at the screeen "Don't Swing" and "No".  But he is the most reliable catcher on the team right now.

Roberto Perez - DON'T BRING BACK ...unless he is willing to play for $3 million on a 1 year deal.   Look, I love Roberto but not for his option price.  $3 million is generous based on how much he has been hurt and how bad his offensive production has been.  He would only get that salary out of loyalty.

SUMMARY

Regarding the starting pitchers, we will be looking at 7, maybe 8 starters going into spring training on the 40-man roster, if we don't make trades or sign free agents to major league deals.  That is tight but we do have guys like Hentges and even Trevos Stephan who could step up if needed.   Still, the guys we have may give us the best starting 5 pitchers in baseball if they are healthy and continue to perform at a high level.  

As far as catchers go we will need at least one of our spots on the 40-man to be held for catcher #2 (behind or along with Hedges) as Bryan Lavistida won't be ready for the major leagues at the beginning of the season.  It would be nice, after the Rule 5 draft, to make a move or two to clear a spot for Roberto coming back a significantly reduced salary.  That would be ideal.   But, either way, we need to hold that spot open for SOMEONE.   

So, now we are done with the current 40 man roster player-by-player discussions.  Next we will look at the number of prospects we need to roster and compare that to the open roster spots I say we should create.   Finally I will see if there is room for any of the guys I said to remove from the roster and, if so, which ones we should add back in.   

Roster Debate: The Outfielders

 As we start talking about outfielders we have to look at how this team will be constructed next year.   Key questions include (1) will we sign any significant free agents and (2) If so, will we look at outfielder/DH types.   So let's dive into the outfielders and see what we have/need.

Myles Straw - KEEP - He is a grinder and plays the game hard...something we said about Zimmer when he came up.  He is the key piece to this outfield puzzle because he addresses things (strong defense in CF, leadoff hitter, capable of playing against both righthanders and lefthanders AND a righthanded bat) that we might have to address with two different players.

Franmil Reyes - KEEP - Yes, I am counting the Franimal as an outfielder because I see a scenario (sign a DH or firstbaseman (pushing Bradley to DH) this off-season) that pushes Reyes to the OF almost full-time. 

Bradley Zimmer - KEEP - Zimmer is the perfect 4th outfielder.   Good defense in CF, OK arm in RF, pleny of speed on the bases, stolen bases, ability to take a walk and a HBP and occasional power.  Yes he Ks too often for his production and his boneheaded running plays in the doubleheader were maddening.   That being said, in almost every category he is  better than his competitors for a roster spot and we are talking about a 4th outfielder, right?   He's on.

Josh Naylor - KEEP - Assuming his medicals are telling us he will be ready for spring training, you have to keep him.   I talk a lot about replacement level players.   Naylor is barely above replacement-level but if he can play LF and bring that same energy that he brought this year, he is on.   One warning: If he looks like he will not be ready until June, I would think about DFAing him as roster spots are precious.

Oscar Mercado - REMOVE - He is just replacement-level.   He has had plenty of opportunities and has regressed to a mean that is, well, substandard and not worthy of a roster spot in a winter where we have a roster crunch.

Daniel Johnson - REMOVE - DItto for what I said for Mercado.   Yes, he has less ML ABs and yes, there is a good potential that DFAing him or trading him for magic beans could easily come back to haunt us.   But I doubt that he is making the 26 next spring and, given that, I would rather have Steve Kwan and Oscar Gonzalez in the minors when we need to make a callup.  

Harole Ramirez - REMOVE - For the people who read this blog and a lot of Cleveland fans, this would be a head-scratcher.   But what I say to those people is to keep your eye on the ball.   Harold is barely replacement level and his defense just sucks.   I mean, I think Franmil is a better outfielder.   Harold just looked good this year because his replacement level performance was so much better than our below replacement level outfielders that he APPEARED to be valuable.   Taking a step back, unless he suddenly develops 20 HR power with good defense and speed (cough! Tyler Naquin.  cough!) Ramirez's roster spot is needed elsewhere.

SUMMARY 

The Indians have a lot of mediocre in the OF in the majors.   You just have to take a step back and see that guys like Gonzalez and Kwan, overall, are the future and the guys above who I say to remove from the roster have not shown they are the present, let alone the future.   Yeah, could we be burned by letting these guys go?  Sure, but that is what replacement-level players are all about.  They can easily be replaced by a minor league free agent (see Ramirez, Harold).    You have to go out on a limb sometimes to protect your prospects.   Keeping Harold Ramirez, Daniel Johnson and Oscar Mercado is taking the safe major league team way and NOT considering the future closely enough.

Roster Debate: Bullpen

Bullpens always fluctuate from year to year and guys are signed on minor league deals all the time.  So how this bullpen looks in November when the rosters are frozen is not the full story about what the bullpen will look like in April of 2022.   

One thing to consider, however.  There likely won't be much play in the roster next April as a 40-man roster spots likely will be occupied by guys who are not ready for the majors.   So what you see here might make up the relievers who will be counted on next year.

So let's look at who should keep and who we will let go:

Emmanuel Clase - Keep

James Karinchak - No choice but to keep him.

Logan Allen - Keep. They should keep him on the roster as a reliever.   I think he finds his niche there.

JC Mejia - Keep. As a sinker/slider guy and being young, he becomes a full-time reliever and claims a 40-man roster spot this winter.

Sam Hentges - Keep

Francisco Perez - KEEP - I saw enough in the majors to trust him next year.

Nick Sandlin - Keep

Trevor Stephan - Keep

Nick Wittgren -  Remove.  He has had an off-year.   Relief pitchers do that but Wittgren may and probably SHOULD be a casualty of the roster crunch this winter.   He's gone, most likely in a trade.

Bryan Shaw:  Remove, maybe re-sign to a minor league deal.  Great signing by the Indians but he should be another casualty of the roster crunch.  Bring him back on a minor league deal again but he can't take up a roster spot this winter

Blake Parker - Remove.  Re-sign to a minor leagu deal.  Ditto as with Shaw in all aspects

Justin Garza - Remove.  He was a great find this year but at 28 with a decent chance he is a one-year wonder we either have to trade or DFA him as I doubt he would be dependable as one of the top 8 next year.

Anthony Gose - Remove. Again, this is not Jim Morris time.  His minor league numbers suck and all he has is that 100 mph fastball.   He stays on the roster if this is a 1970s/1980s roster.   But not this winter.   DFA him and hope he makes it through waivers and you can re-sign him.''

Cam Hill - Remove.  He was hurt all year and his stuff is very marginal even when he is healthy. 

Scott Moss - Remove.  The one most likely to come back and bite us but he needs to be healthy.  

Kyle Nelson - Remove,  He has fallen out of favor with the Indians.  

Alex Young - Remove.  The only way he stays on the 40-man roster is as a space filler for a free agent signing.  Still, to the average fan, if we lose someone in the Rule 5 and Young is still on the roster, it will look really bad.

Summary - I am suggesting that we only keep 8 relievers on our 40-man roster.  Crazy, right?  But we need roster spots for this winter.   I am suggesting, one way or another, not bringing these 9 back.   There are arguments that you should keep all these guys but, in a roster crunch, 

Nest: On to the outfielders

Roster Debate - Middle Infielders

This is the first in a series of discussions about our roster and how it will shake out this fall.  

So let's talk about the middle infielders on the current roster:

Amed Rosario - Not much to say here.  The only way you move this guy off of shortstop is if you have someone who replaces him such that Amed at new position + new SS > Amed at SS but someone else at the other position.  For me, Rosario is the SS and is on the team (Duh!)

Andres Gimenez - Here is where it gets dicey.   Gimenez should likely be your secondbaseman next year. But his performance and body language makes me wonder if that would be acceptable to him.   I don't think there is any way we DFA him but I could see us trading him after the season if we think he is going to be a problem on the field or in the locker room if he doesn't start at SS. 

Yu Chang - Does he make this team next year?  That question is easily answered if Gimenez is the second baseman.  Chang makes an offensive infielder who can play all the IF positions and have some offense while not killing us on defense.  He has learned to be an infield role player and is finding success at it. It would also be great if he could play a little LF, too.  

Ernie Clement - His game on Tuesday was great.   Great defense, another HR.   But when you look at his resume, his whole body of work, the guy is just a gamer...and no more.  He is homegrown and I would rather have him on the team than grizzled veteran A, B or C who is signed to a minor league deal.  However, if Gimenez plays second and is successful we don't need Clement, his loss IS impactful but not as impactful as losing Jose Fermin or Johnkensy Noel or, frankly, even Konnor Pilkington.   He is a utility infielder and we have more middle infielders banging on the door to Progressive Field.  He is a guy for the 80s when our team sucked and we were grasping at straws.   He is NOT the player the contending Cleveland Indians need on their roster.  So Clement likely is traded or DFA'd.

Owen Miller - Whereas Clement is giving you all that you have and more than you thought you would get, Miller is giving you NOTHING of what you thought you would get and doing so in a frustratingly, I-am-lost-as-hell-and-I-don't-know-how-to-fix-it kinda way.  My gut says that we should keep Miller on the roster because he CAN'T be that bad.   Unfortunately, I have to keep him over Clement.   If I cut Miller after spring training or send him to Columbus to rot for the season, DFAing him when I need a roster  spot, so be it.   But, right now, he CAN'T be this bad, can he?

So, in summary, if we do the right thing for a contending team we are forced to keep Gimenez, Chang and Miller.   All can be traded later if they don't perform but, right now, the potential for each of them is much more than Clement and we need the roster space.  

Next the bullpen!

Interesting Fall Instructs List

 Looking through one of my favorite sites, Indians Prospective, and I found a list on invites for the fall instructional league.

Normally the Indians' roster for this league is made up of the following 4 types of players:

1. Players drafted in the most recent amateur draft
2. Prospects who have been injured most or all of the season trying to play catchup.  
3. Latin prospects from the Dominican and AZL teams who they want to be ready to be assigned to a full-season team the next year.
4. Guys they intend to send to the Arizona Fall League and they just want them ready for whatever they will be doing in that league (e.g., a position change)

The list had the usual guys like Gavin Williams and all his fellow 2021 draftees except for 2021 college pitching draftees who pitched extensively in the minors in2021.  Guys like Matt Turner who essentially missed all the season.

But then the surprises:  Brayan Rocchio, Johnkensy Noel, Angel Martinez, Steve Kwan, George Valera, Bryan Lavastida

None of them need extra at bats as they each played a lot of games this year (only Noel missed any significant time).  Most of them have already been trained at multiple positions so I doubt that any of them are playing learning new positions this fall.   

Could some or all of them be transitioning to the Arizona Fall League after the instructs?   Maybe, but they just don't fit the profile of guys the Indians have historically sent to that league.   The Indians also have to send 1-2 pitchers to the AFL and I don't see any other pitchers on this list who I thought might be there like Cody Morris, Adam Scott and Joey Cantillo.

My guess is that, since every one of these guys has to be rostered or exposed to the Rule 5 draft that one of two things is happening.

1. We want our larger minor league staff to get a look at them to see if they are deserving of a 30-man roster spot or
2. We are auditioning these players to trade them before the rosters are frozen in November for a ML-ready prospect or young major leaguer who can help us in 2022 and going forward.

The two guys who are missing, both of whom I think are on the Rule 5 bubble, are Jose Fermin and Alexfri Planaz.  

I don't really know what is going on but this is unusual so it begs conjecture.   

One caution I will make to the Indians.  The year Hector Rondon was lost in the Rule 5 he missed almost the who year.  He then played in one of the Latin winter leagues after the 40-man rosters were set and lit up that league, leading to his Rule 5 stock going through the roof and him being drafted by the Cubs.  

So, if the Indians are going to further expose the talents of these guys and they don't trade them before the roster setting or don't roster them, all they will be doing will be making the job of opposing scouts and GMs easier as to whether they want to pick these guys in the Rule 5 draft.  Just like with Rondon.