First day draft blog

 OK, the draft is on.  I will be updating this post the rest of tonight each time the Guardians make a pick.  The updates will contain thoughts about those picks and the state of the draft after each round (first, supplemental first and second) 

FIRST ROUND

Guardians - Chase DeLauter - Look, I was on Daniel Susac at this position because the Guardians have exactly 1 (Naylor) and 1/2 (Lavastida) catching prospects in their ENTIRE minor league system,  Basically, for me it comes down to this.  I like DeLauter and he fits with what the Indians covet (strikezone control and athleticism) and what they need (power).  However, if you make one assumption: guys rated roughly the same have the same chance of success, then you pick the guy who has the clearest path to the majors.  For the Guardians, that would be Susac, who can impact both sides of the ball at catcher.  DeLauter would have to be much better than Susac given the guys he has to climb over to make the majors and I don't think he is.  In the end it is how this pick will impact the major league roster down the road.  I think Susac fills a hole a catcher, a hole I don't think will exist in our outfield in a few years.  Nevertheless, the DeLauter pick is not horrible and is OK for the spot they were drafting (no overdraft here).  I just think it was the wrong pick, given who was available.  Just my thought.

Rest of the first round - Literally every draft has surprises in the first round.   Big surprises, not just shuffling of deck chairs.  The first round started early with Rocker going to Texas.  The only thing I can think is that they were getting him cheap to save money for other picks.   Cade Horten at 7 is, to me, more of the same.   I think Cubs like Horton and know they can save some money here and get another top prospect later.  When I saw Gabriel Hughes go at 10 to Colorado I felt for the kid.   Here he is waiting his whole life and he goes to a team whose stadium location eats pitchers for dinner.   That being said, I think this is an overdraft but the best of the 3 overdrafts up to that point in the first round.  As we move down to the later parts of the first round, starting at Boston's pick, the pundits draft rankings are becoming meaningless.  From 20-30 only 3 guys with first round credentials were even drafted with the average overdraft number (difference between MLB draft rankings and where the player was drafted) was about 35 spots ABOVE where the guys were ranked.  This is just totally amazing to me.  Could all these teams be trying to save money?  Absolutely.  But I do find it hard to imagine that that Tampa Bay at 29 could have liked Xavier Isaacs (who I liked as the Guardians' FOURTH round pick) enough to draft him there when they were aware that 6 of their competitors (7 counting Texas with the Kumar pick) were already making picks to save money to sign guys who slid.   There just couldn't be that many guys who were first round talents who were going to slide, right?

More to come after the supplemental round is completed.

COMPENSATION AND COMPETITIVE BALANCE A ROUNDS

Guardians - Justin Campbell, P, Oklahoma St. - Campbell is a solid pick at this point and one of my suggested options if Cayden Wallace, 3B from Arkansas wasn't available.   Campbell is a solid pitcher but his stuff doesn't seem to say that he is much better or much more needed than corner infielders with power, something that hardly exists in our farm system.

So Campbell was a solid selection here if he can increase his fastball average to more than 92 mph.  But I still would have rater had Wallace and his power potential, even if we have doubled down on power hitters in college by selecting him after DeLauter.

Rest of these rounds - For those teams who may have been trying to save money in round 1, none of those teams drafting in these rounds seemed to draft guys who have fallen except for Colorado in their drafting of Jordan Beck (36th spot, 23rd ranked player).

SECOND ROUND

Guardians - Patrick Messick - LHP - I don't know if they were counting on Wallace to get to them or if they had other college hitters in mind who they think will be there in round 3 and later, but Messick was a safe pick and one I mentioned.   If we had not drafted 19 pitchers last year, almost all college pitchers, I would have been OK with this pick.  And there is nothing wrong with this pick.  Messick fits the bill of pitchers the Guardians like, albeit that he is a little short for my liking. His fastball velocity only sits at a below ML average 91 right now but if he can add velocity he could be a good one.  It is just, following the selection of Campbell, a really non-sexy pick, Messick represents another non-sexy pick and not one that matches the needs of this organization.

The real upside here is that the Reds took Logan Tanner one pick after we selecdted Messick.  We dodged a bullet there, in my opinion!

Rest of 2nd round - We started to see some of the teams, like TB, SF and Houston who may have overdrafted earlier, start to use some of what will likely be budget excess to  pick up guys who have dropped..  This is the round where you generally start to see wild deviations from what teams value compared to what prospect listings value.   The thing here is that, except for a couple of cases, that didn't happen in the second round at the level it normally happens.  My guess is that since we had so much of that in the first round teams went safe or picked up guys who had dropped into the second round to make up for earlier overdrafting (done likely to save budget).

Pre-draft mock draft - Round 2

 As tonight's draft segment will include the first two rounds, including competitive balance picks and compensation picks, I am going to do the same analysis I did for our first round and Competitive Balance A pick.

To refresh, the last mock draft post contained 'wins' and red flags picks for our first two picks.   The Guardians would be good if they could draft Daniel Susac, Zach Neto, both college hitters, or Dylan Lesko.  Gabriel Hughes, a college pitcher, would be a safe, slight overdraft and guys like Logan Tanner, Kummar Rocker, Justin Crawford would be red flag pickers for me with our opening pick.  'Wins' for our competitive balance pick would by Cayden Wallace, a college infielder, Hughes, if he is still available or other college pitchers Justin Cambell, Cooper Hjerpe or Carson Wisenhut.

Our second round pick is #54 overall.  

Looking at the possible results for our first two picks, we are likely to have either two college hitters or one college hitter one hitter and one pitcher.  So we could go either way, hitter or pitcher, without unbalancing our minor league system.  Handicapping this pick is difficult because, besides the pool of players rated to be in the group considered for this pick, two additional different types of players converge at this point: players who are more highly rated than this slot and players that teams rate much more highly than the media.  

So let's look at who would be good picks, focusing JUST on guys I expect to be available here, not considering the two other groups mentioned above that are not really predictable:

Catcher - Dalton Rushing (good hit tool, #50 overall prospect, MLB.com) and Logan Tanner (good defensive tools, #41 overall rated prospect) are the two best college catching prospects after Susac.  Either would be a good pick here.  If the Guardians think they can improve Rushing's defensive tools then drafting him would be a win and I see some Bryan Lavastida in him.  If they just want a guy likely to at least end up as a major league backup, Tanner is their guy, although, as said before, he reminds me of Austin Hedges in terms of his ability to hit.  If somehow Daniel Susac is selected at #16, it is unlikely we would double-down by using this pick to select another college catcher.

Infield - Cade Doughty, a college infielder, would be a 'win' here.   The available college infielders here who slot at this level is limited.  I like Luke Gold but he slots more like a 3rd round pick.

Outfield - There are a number of good college outfielders here.  I expect the Guardians to go the college route here as their development of HS hitters drafted early is really, really suspect.  Spencer Jones and Jud Fabian (my favorite), would be 'win' at this slot.  

Pitcher - Looking at the picks available at this slot, college pitching and some HS pitchers look to be the strength here.   If the Guardians see the draft playing out as I see it, and they have already selected a couple of college hitters, I could see them going for a college pitcher here.   Parker Messick, Adam Mazur, Jonathon Cooper (who reminds me of Gavin Williams or Cody Morris or Peyton Battenfield) or Drew Thorpe would be good fits here.   If the Guardians want to start more slowly and back up their development of pitchers a year or two, any HS pitcher who dropped or guys like Jackson Cox or Walter Ford would be a 'win' at this point.

That should be it for the first night of the draft.  More tomorrow morning to recap tonight and handicap the second day of the draft.

Deadline deal proposal: St. Louis Cardinals

 With or without a Juan Soto trade, would you make this trade with the Cardinals?

Guardians get: Tyler O'Neill and Zack Thompson

Cardinals get: Amed Rosario

As O'Neill is still a possible flash-in-the-pan candidate Thompson softens that blow a little bit.

One point.  This would create an issue for the Cardinals in that now they have Edman, Gorman and Rosario for two positions (SS,2B).  So maybe we expand the deal to:

Guardians get: Tyler O'Neill and Nolan Gorman 

Cardinals get: Amed Rosario, Richie Palacios, Bryan Shaw and Peyton Battenfield

May seem a little light for the Cardinals but Palacios fits their system, they need bullpen help and Shaw is solid and they are a little light at starting pitching depth which they likely will need down the stretch.

What would you trade for Juan Soto?

 OK, market is open for Juan Soto.  

What would you trade to get him?

Looking at Washington's minor league system it is bleak.  Looking at their major league roster it is even more bleak.  

These guys are looking at a long rebuild.  Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz will be free agents.  Stephen Strasburg is just a aalary drain.  

This team needs ML-ready prospects and lots of them.   

When you look at the farm systems of contenders who might trade for Soto only the Dodgers and Mariners have farm systems as good or better than the Guardians and, truth be told, only the Mariners have a deeper farm system than the Indians.

So, while Soto will likely end up in LA or NY after the 2024 season, I don't think it is a given that he will end up there now.

Soto is making $17.1 million this year and he has two arbitration years left, meaning he is likely to make Jose Ramirez money for the next two years.

So, what would a deal for Soto look like and what should we/would we trade?  Here is a proposed trade

Indians get: Soto, Bell, Paulo Espino, Srasburg, Carl Edwards, Jr.. and Matt Cronin

Nationals get: Nolan Jones, Owen Miller, Gabriel Arias, Stephen Kwan, George Valera, Jose Tena, Konnor Pilkington, Tommy Mace, Nick Mikolajchak and Luis Durango.

Basically we are eating Strasburg's remaining salary as he will likely never pitch again.

Final pre-draft mock draft - Warning or celebration signs?

 Ok, about 60 hours from the start of the 2022 first year player draft.   

So, I thought I would do this one a little bit different.  Drafts are so fluid that it is hard to decide whether a particular pick was a win or a loss, depending on who was available at the time.  We won't truly know for years but, at least at the time of the draft, we will have an idea.   

To give some historical context, when the Indians drafted Beau Mills (13th overall, 2007) I knew instantly they did not maximize the value of that pick.  First round selections right after Mills in that draft came guys like Jason Heyward, JP Arencibia, Devin Mesoraco and Rick Porcello.  

In 2019 the then Indians took Christian Cairo and Yordy Valdes, both light-hitting, slick-fielding middle infielders in the 4th and 2nd rounds of the draft, respectively.   Neither has really panned out at all at this point, clearly matching the floor predicted for them at the time they signed.

Yes, lots of guys bloom late (Nolan Jones, Will Benson), guys are astute picks among several available players of about the same skill level (Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams, Logan T. Allen) and reach towards their ceilings predicted at draft time and some guys picked in the first few rounds overachieve (Shan Bieber, Aaron Civale).  We can never tell on draft night which they will be.

But we can look for warning signs like the ones seen for Mills, Valdes and Cairo.  We can also look for areas where we have potentially made huge misses recently (e.g., high school hitters) and areas where we have drafted overachievers (college pitchers).   We can also look for areas of need (catching, left-handed pitching, power hitting corner infielders) and see if the Guardians have considered those areas when making a pick.

With all that said, let's jump into my final pre-draft mock draft.

First round (16th overall)

Catching - Kevin Parada will be gone, but if Daniel Susac falls to the Guardians they need to draft him.  He is an offense-first college catcher and a good value at this pick so he would be a 'win' at this spot.  Not drafting him would be a real question mark, especially depending on who they actually would draft.  However, if the Guardians pick Logan Tanner, a defense-first catcher at this point, that is an extreme negative for me. 

Infield - Zach Neto is a win with this pick.   Jett Williams, given how bad the Guardians are with developing HS hitters and the fact that he is 5'8', 

Outfield - Justin Crawford raises red flags for me given that we don't do a good job of developing HS bats.  Only Chase DeLauter moves the needle for me here but I think there is too much risk of total failure compared to the reward of his high ceiling for me.  Any other college outfielder will either be gone or would be an overdraft (big negative) for me here.

Pitching - Dylan Lesko, despite his TJ surgery would be a win for me. However, picking Kumar Rocker would be a big negative.  We tried that with Brady Aiken and look how that worked out.  Kumar is a sucker bet and picking him would raise big red flags for m. Picking a college pitcher like Gabriel Hughes at this point is a 'safe' pick and I feel the Guardians would be leaving talent on the table unless they sign Hughes to an underslot deal to save money for later picks.

Supplemental First Round Pick

Catching - Again, Logan Tanner is a huge reach for me here.   There will be plenty of talented players available at other positions that we don't need to draft for need here because, to me, Tanner screams Austin Hedges.  You don't draft a college guy without a bat this early and expect that he will magically develop one, especially as your minor league system isn't know for developing bats where they weren't before.

Infield - Cayden Wallace is a good solid pick here.  I might gamble with Tucker Toman here except that our system is so bat at developing guys like Toman.  

Outfield - I am not enamored with a college outfield bat here, given who will be left.  I think drafting the best available college OFer here would signal drafting for need instead of drafting the best available player.  I think our true second round pick would be a good place to go for a college outfielder.

Pitching - Assuming we don't go for pitching at 16, there are lots of good college pitching here.   Justin Campbell, Cooper Hjerpe or even Carson Whenhut, if available, would all be solid picks here.

As I think these are the only picks the Guardians will have the first night of the draft, I would double back after the picks of July 17th and see who is left before I do my second day mock draft.

The Killer B's - When can we expect to see them in Cleveland?

 Looking at the Columbus Clippers lineup today it took me back a few years.   In my youth, at this point in the season we would be about where Kansas City is now'

As a fan at the time I would have been looking to the future.   Excited about the draft that had just happened and looking to our AAA team for any hope in the last 70 or so games in the season.

Which is why it got me to reminisce about what mighta/shoulda/coulda been to the guys whose last names begin with B in the lineup in today's 7-0 win against Indianapolis (Pirates' AAA team).

So, in remembrance of my youthful years, let's look to the Columbus roster and think who would have been a candidate in the 70s to be called up at or around the all-star break.  

Will Benson - In those olden years, a relatively young first-round pick tearing it up at AAA would have elicited all sorts of calls from fans to be called up.  I mean, the guy is showing signs of being a 4-tool guy with the hit tool being the only one in question and, if we use 2022 statistical logic, his walk rate plus BA makes his hit tool look pretty good.  His current line of 16 HRs, 16 doubles and 16 stolen bases PLUS his mnor league-leading 68 walks for a still relatively young guy would have had the fan in me salivating to get him to the majors...NOW.  The only issues with calling Benson up right now are (a) he hits left-handed and (b) he is not on the 40-man roster.   Who would you send down, who would he replace in the lineup and who would you DFA to add Benson to the 40 man when you are looking at having to add Carlos Vargas and Cody Morris back to the 40-man roster very soon when their 30 day rehab periods expire?

Will Brennan - You gotta feel for guys like Brennan.   I have long said that Antonnetti and Chernoff are not very adept at turning our minor league depth into minor league or major league controllable quality.  The one and only time I can recall them doing that was with Oscar Mercado and look how that turned out eventually.   Brennan deserves a chance and at maybe a third of the franchises in baseball he would have had that chance already.   Unfortunately the Indians are backed up with left-handed hitting outfielders currently or in the recent past raking at AAA (and continuing to rake in the majors).  Brennan should be getting his chance but, like Benson, needs some of the ML logjam to clear off the 40-man to get his chance.

Peyton Battenfield - Potentially the most likely on this list to get a callup if Civale's injury is serious or lingers, Battenfield is probably as or more ML ready than Konnor Pilkington.  I don't want to make too much of his start against Indianapolis today as it was a day game after a night game (generally favoring pitchers) but the thing I am focused on here is look how good he did with his stuff plus a major league quality catcher (Sandy Leon) to maximize his effectiveness.  Don't discount the possibility that Leon was targeted to catch Battenfield today to get a first-hand, spikes-on-the-ground scouting report on Battenfield today just in case Civale has to go on the DL.   Like everyone else listed in this post, Battenfield would have to be added to the roster with someone else DFA'd or put on the 60 day DL. 

 Trenton Brooks - Like Alex Call, a callup of Brooks would be a feel-good story for a career minor leaguer but as a left-handed hitter and mainly a first baseman, he doesn't have an obvious path to being called up.  I would like to see him get his cup of coffee but unless Josh Naylor goes on the 60-day DL (let's hope not!) I don't see that happening.

So there you have it.  This is not your father's Cleveland baseball team.   Guys like the ones mentioned abov just don't get called up because we are competitive in the season, competitive at the positions they play and we have such a young, stacked 40-man roster that DFAing someone is not like DFAing Kirk McCarty, Tanner Tully or Justin Garza.   Aside from a couple of career minor league relievers whose roster spots are already spoken for with guys coming off the 60-man, without a trade we literally don't have room for anyone but Battenfield and only in the case where Civale would be out for a long time.

When you have to call up Alex Call just because he hits right-handed you know that left-handed hitting outfielder and first baseman will have trouble getting called up.   Effective starting pitchers?  Well, regardless of their handedness, you can never have enough pitching!

Random thoughts about the draft

 Reading through draft-related articles on the net brought up a couple of things:

1) Competitive Balance A picks are more valuable than I thought or are they?!  The recent trade between the Braves and the Royals.  The Braves got the Royals Comp Balance A pick (#35 overall) for three prospects.  One was Drew Waters listed as the Braves #1 prospect on MLB pipeline although MLB Trade Rumors was not too flattering about his potential.  The next was a the Braves #16 prospect, a low upsdie righty Andrew Hoffman and the 3rd appears to be a throw-in, 3B/1B CJ Alexander.  

I don't know what to make of this.  On the surface the Braves got another pick and increased financial flexibility in the 2022 draft and only gave up suspects in return.  On the surface of the other side the Royals got a top (albeit tarnished) prospect, a middling pitching prospect (you can never have too much pitching) and an older suspect from the Braves, saving the bonus they would have had to pay for a guy who might not have been on their ML roster for 3-5 years and who wouldn't have been THAT great of a pick, as far as upside or current value (being #35 overall in the draft).  Basically they got a guy in Waters who is close to ML ready who likely would have the same downside and maybe more upside of whoever the Braves pick at 35.   

It appears the Braves have given up on Waters and want to reset their timeclock on prospect development with this trade as whoever they draft won't have to be protected on the 40 man for a number of years.   Plus they could lowball the bonus for this spot in the draft with the dollars they save giving them flexibility to sign other guys with above-slot bonus demands. 

The Royals rolled the dice assuming Waters could use a change of scenery.  

Still, this is an interesting trade as it makes you think about how much these picks are worth.

THOUGHT: Could the Guardians reset their prospect clock by trading some of their excess for a competitive balance pick or two?  It is an interesting concept if they have excess although it is hard to believe that trading a clost-to-the-majors guy like George Valera for a draft pick makes sense.   Maybe if you trade Jose Tena and Bryan Lavastida for such a pick it makes sense.

2) NIL could change the face of this draft - Look, bonuses are locked in.   Teams are not likely to go overslot, at least not dramatically, to keep a kid from going to college or even, returning to college in the face of that kid being able to make significant NIL money.    Could a kid's NIL money be worth $500,000 during his 3 years in college?  I doubt it for baseball but it is worth considering.  If a kid can even make $250,000 in college would it be worth it for him to sign for 3rd round draft money?   I don't think so.  But what do I know?  And HS players with good scholarships signing for $125,000 as a pick after the 10th round?   I think that would be much less likely in the era of NIL than it was before.

My gut tells me that less high school players will be drafted and almost none after the 10th round.   I think teams will go for the sure thing college players although some teams may use the strategy of going all in on their first round HS pick and then sign cheap college seniors to fill out their first 10 rounds.  

3) Hurt pitchers - The Guardians have done a good job signing hurt college pitchers (e.g., Zach Plesac) and then rehabbing and developing them.  At the same time for guys like Ethan Hankins and Lenny Torres this has shown to be a slow process if they get hurt once you draft them.   Could they select one or more of these hurt pitchers getting them at a high, but discounted cost.   Maybe double-down witht his kind of guy at 16 and 37?  This might make more sense given the influx of pitching they got in the 2021 draft.   I don't know if the Guards will go that direction but it is something to keep an eye on if you could get someone a little cheaper at 16 due to injury and then use that excess bonus money to overpay for slot but still underpay for pre-injury ranking by taking another hurt pitcher at 37.

4) Possible elimination of the ML Rule 5 - This didn't make it into the collective bargaining agreement this time around but I would not count it out as being added soon.  I think a lot of teams will see this year how unfair it was during 2020 as prospects lost a year of development although their Rule 5 and 6-year minor league free agent clocks kept moving.  While this may be more obvious with Latin players who are signed at 16, I think teams will see the advantages that elimination of at least the ML portion of the Rule 5 could have on their draft.    I think that the needs of the many (prospects) will outweigh the needs of the few (prospects who get drafted in the ML Rule 5 and can actually stick and have a career).  I think the ML Rule 5 will disappear soon.

Now, if a team thinks the ML Rule 5 draft will disappear, they might be more likely to take a chance on a guy that might be slow developing due to injury, conversion full-time to one position (e.g., guys being converted to catcher or two-way college players being converted to pitchers) or guys who they just think are very raw.  If they don't think the ML Rule 5 will disappear maybe those guys don't get selected or at least not before the 10th round where the loss of their player down the road due to slow development won't exactly kill a team's draft.