Thoughts For A Sunday Night - The Trade - Version 4

 We are now 20-26.  I don't know if it is worse to be outscored 30-5 in a 3-game series or to lose 3 games in the other team's last AB, twice with all our closer has to do is, well, close.

Looking at this series and the season so far, it still appears to me that we need to do something bold.  I see two ways of thinking about it:

• Trade some our excess prospect capital, especially middle infield prospects, and get a power hitting outfielder in here.

• Make a much bolder move and move on from some of our veterans to restock the upper levels of our minors while adding enough in ML ready guys that they don't throw this season away..

As far as the first one, I still see 3 issues

1. Cleveland is not the type of organization that trades for an expensive player from another organization.  They are built to keep their prospects and develop them into affordable major leaguers.

2. Cleveland is not good at trading prospects and getting veterans back.  Look at the players who have played for them this year.  They were either developed by Cleveland, obtained in minor moves (Rule 5, minor league free agents) or obtained when Cleveland traded a veteran to another team getting young players or prospects back.  I can't remember the last time the Guardians made a good prospect-for-major leaguer trade and, even worse, they tend to give their prospects away for very little or nothing when they do trade them.  For example, the more-infamous-every-day trade of Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers trade.

3. They actually have very few prospects to trade right now as, besides Gavin Williams and, MAYBE, Joey Cantillo, they have very few prospects in their system at the moment who look like quality major league regulars.  I know this is kind of harsh and I will cover it in a later post but, right now, it is the way it appears to me.

THE TRADE

There are a number of teams the Guardians can trade with but I have been, and continue to be, focused on one team, the Dodgers.  LA was pretty much trashed in their last series against the Cardinals.  They need help in a number of areas.  

When you make a veteran-for-prospect trade you want to give up veteran(s) who have little or no future with your club but represent quality for the team you are trading with.  We have a number of those:

1. Shane Beiber - He is a quality ML starter with 1.75 years of control who will never sign with the Guardians.  He rightly wants to get paid in his next contract but he wants to get paid as a Cy Young award winner and he is not that right now.  

2. Zach Plesac - The Guardians are done with him, I am sure, because they have so many other pitchers at or close to major league level.  Plesac represents the perfect change-of-scenery project for a team who feels they can fix what ails him AND who is in need of veteran starting pitching now.

3. Amed Rosario - Whether any of us like it or not, Rosario is gone after this year.  He likely will be the, by some distance, the best free agent SS on the market this winter and a contender who needs a SS now and who has the money/right situation could see him as a real value.

4. Myles Straw - Straw is showing who he is this year.  Last year was an offensive aberration but this year is passable offensively at the bottom or the lineup and is still a Gold Glover, even though defensive metrics seem to be frowning on him this year.  Still, for a contender in need of quality defense in center field who can live with his limited offensive production in CF and wants some continutiy from a very reasonable long-term contract, Straw is a great fit.

5. Eli Morgan - Why Morgan, you may ask?  Morgan, to me, is the kind of guy who does it with smoke and mirrors.  He is a quality version of Adam Cimber and guys like that.  He is a gimmick pitcher who is surviving because his fastball has become ML average or a tad below, making his changeup and other off-speed pitches play WAY up.  In the long-term, however, guys like him will generally be 6th/7th inning pitchers who may be able to go multiple innings.  Very valuable to teams like Tampa Bay but easily replaceable given the Guardians' farm system.

6. Juan Brito - Every trade of prospects by a team needs at least one prospect in return so that the team TRADING prospects has at least one coming back that can have potential even when all the veterans have left the team.  Brito fits that bill and, of course, frees up a space on the 40-man roster for us.

So, which team needs all these players?  The answer is, unequivocally, the Dodgers.  Here is what I see:

a. They are using a 34 year old journeyman at SS, Miguel Rojas.  Rojas's offensive production is so bad they have used veteran, 32 year old supersub Chris Taylor at SS in about half their games this year.  They could use Rosario's hitting and steady, but mediocre defense at SS right now and I think they would think they have a good chance of signing him to a reasonable deal that would keep their luxury tax within reason and help keep them from losing draft picks and pay crazy penalties in the future.

b. They have a lot of starting pitchers out right now and need some veteran starters, especially at least one quality, playoff-tested starter.  Beiber, with Plesac as a throw-in, would help them out.  

c. Their centerfield situation is a mess.  It was so bad that at the beginning of the season they started a guy who I thought was more of a middling prospect, James Outman, in CF. To the surprise of most people, Outman started very hot.  He hit .292 with 7 HR in April with an OPS of .991 but has hit .200 in May with 2 HR and 23 K in 60 AB in May with an OPS of .657 and has shown no real signs of pulling out of it.  Plus, his defense in CF is only passable and, in the minors, he has played a lot of RF and LF.  They have played veteran Jayson Heyward , a career RF and AAA outfielder Trayce Thomspon in CF in about half their games.  Clearly, Straw would be an upgrade defensively and, given Outman's declining prduction, Straw's limited offensive upside (speed, good baserunning, better hitting than last year).

d. Their bullpen is being taxed based on how bad their starting pitching is now and they could use a fresh arm who is very different in stuff from who they have now.

So, the Dodgers would benefit hugely from obtaining these players.  Even though they are comfortably in first place, leading by 7.5 games over San Diego, the team in their division who can realistically challenge them over a full season, the Dodgers are NEVER playing for the regular season.  With their talent and payroll they are ALWAYS playing to be solid in the post-season.

So I think the Dodgers are the perfect trading partner.  But wouldn't trading Beiber, Straw, Rosario and Plesac destroy the Guardians chances of winning the AL Central title this year?  It is more likely than not going to have that impact but looking at the AL Central there is still an outside chance that they could, with young starting pitching, more consistency from their bullpen and upgrades on offense still be competitive this year and in the future.  

So who do we need to get back from the Dodgers in this trade that would likely go down as the biggest blockbuster trade in Guardians history?  The answer is simple: MULTIPLE ML ready or almost ML ready top prospects as well as a couple of long-term plays who have years before they are Rule 5-eligible and who migh actually make the majors close to their first Rule 5 winter.  

The Dodgers have all those players and I think would be willing to part with all of them.  Here they are and the reasons why I think the Dodgers would be willing to part with.  Here is the list:

1. Bobby Miller  RH SP- Miller missed the first month of the season and has only pitched 4 games this season, totaling just 14 innings as they build him back up.  He throws hard but still needs some finishing off, something the Guardians are good at doing.  Interestingly, the Dodgers are going to bring him up to start on Tuesday, starting his FA and arbitration clocks when they don't have to as he won't be Rule 5-eligible until next winter and he isn't really stretched out this year.  This sounds, to me, like they are showcasng him for a possible trade.

2. Michael Busch -2B/1B/OF - Busch is a bat-first guy with great power who had his first cup of coffee in the bigs this year.  His power is down this year which is likely concerning to the Dodgers and, as they are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole by trying to play a college !B man at 2B in the pros, they could see him as expendable.

3. Gavin Stone - RH SP - Stone has already been up for a start this year, starting his FA and arbitration clock early and rostering him when they didn't have to do that until after the season (similar to Gaddis and Curry last year and Logan Allen this year).

4. Dalton Rushing - C - A 2022 draftee, Rushing is dominating high A this year with his power and OB skills.  He is looking like a steal in the second round.  His defense is likely below average, explaining him dropping to the second round.  

5. James Outman - OF - Outman's struggles have been described above but he still is a power-speed-walk guy who is an intriguing prospect, albeit, slightly less valuable to me than a healthy George Valera.  Nevertheless, the Guardians could buy low on this guy given his cratering offensive production and the fact that is probably best served as a corner OFer.  Let's be clear, though.  Outman is a required throw-in to this trade but NOT one of the major pieces to it.  The Guardians would be taking a gamble that he can get back to his early April form either this year in Cleveland or with more seasoning this year in Columbus.

These are the first 5 players I would ask for.  All of them are top 100 prospects in baseball with the exception of Outman, who was a top 100 prospect until he exceeded his rookie status this year.  Rushing, at 67, is the lowest-rated of the 5.   Four of them are either in the majors or ML ready as they have been or will all be in the majors by this Tuesday.  Note that this list allows the Dodgers to keep their #1 overall prospect in C Diego Cartaya and their #5 prospect, Ryan Pepiot who is a RH SP who is major league ready but currently on the 60-day DL as well as their #6, 8 and 9 prospects

Two more players I would require to make this trade would be a couple of guys who were recent international free agent signings, one who has yet to play a professional game and one who 

6. Josue De Paula - OF -  He was signed for $400,000 in the Jan 2022 signing period and dominated the DSL least year to the tune of ..349/.448/.522/.970 last year as a 16-year old.

7.  Joendry Vargas - SS = The Dodgers #1 signing in the Jan. 2023 international free agent signing period, his bonus was near $3 million as he was the #3 ranked international free agent in the Jan. 2023 class.   To put this in perspective, our top signee, Welbyn Francisca, was rated #28 in this class.

There is one final player I would want to offset Morgan going to LA.  

8. Emmitt Sheehan RHP - While Sheehan is at AA and won't see the majors until sometime in 2024, he has late inning reliever written all over his stuff as he throws in the high 90s and has enough stuff to have struck out 58 in 34 innings at AA this year. He is mostly a fastball/changeup guy like Morgan but obviously has a much better fastball, although he is still a year or so away so the Dodgers are getting present value and we are getting future value with upside over Morgan's upside.  Sheehan as a short, 5'10" RHP, is being developed as a starter but I don't think that will stick and that his role will be more like Morgan's role as a multi-inning reliever.

So, that's it.  I have mentioned this trade in one form or another 4 times now but am mentioning it again.  For those of you who want instant gratification of winning this year you will absolutely HATE this trade.  For those of you who are prospect geeks like me and have seen that young, stud prospects can succeed in the majors right away AND see the advantages of a young, cheap roster in terms of maybe being able to add salary this winter, you will love this trade proposal.  The Guardians FO will clear close to $25 million off their books this year and probably $16-$17 million next year.  And for all you Dolan-is-cheap people, you will love to be able to add this trade to your list of cheap Dolan moves to talk about this winter.

Thoughts for a Wednesday Morning: Things Have To Evolve

Reading Various Internet Sites, the angst that exists among Cleveland fans falls, for once, not on Dolan but on the front office and the coaching staff.  

• The preparation for this season was not optimal - We were told that Tyler Freeman was going to be getting outfield practice in spring training and that apparently didn't happen, unless you want to count shagging balls in batting practice because I did not see that he played in a game.  I am not sure that he even played a game in the outfield in Columbus.  Ditto for Rocchio, who played no games at 3B in Columbus but played there in his first game for Cleveland. 
• Francona is making some of the most irritating decisions I have seen during his time as a manager.  The icing on the cake was starting Arias at 3B yesterday.   He had three rookies on the bench (Fry, Freeman and Rocchio) who could have started there but he put Arass in and he went 0-4 with 3 Ks.  
• The front office refuses to pull the trigger on bringing up Bo Naylor.  Now, I know fans tend to want a quicker trigger finger when someone doesn't perform than management does but this team needs a spark.  I don't want to think that we are on the brink of a total collapse but let's just say that we need a spark.   I get not wanting to move on from Zunino and his $6 million contract.  I get not wanting to get rid of your security blanket in Gallagher, but Bo Naylor needs to be called up today.  Arias should be sent down, Naylor should be brought up.  It's not even a no-brainer, it's a mandatory move right now.
• While I agree that trading Shane Beiber is a good idea if we can get value, if you think you want to trade him because he is not as valuable as he used to be, realize that the return on that trade would not be worth as much as you might want.  I do think Beiber's ability will not be higher than it is right now but I don't know if trading him right now would help our team this year or next year.  It would have to bring us a long-term outfielder and a top prospect or two back (Michael Busch, Emmitt Sheehan and Josue De Paula or Dalton Rushing come to mind).  IF you think you could get that return, let's go for it.
• I disagree that we have hoarded our middle infield prospects.  I just don't think we could find a trade where we got equal value back.  Certainly if people around baseball really thought Nolan Jones, our 7th prospect, was only worth Juan Brito, or less, how much would they have valued Jose Tena and Angel Martinez?   Better to let those guys develop and improve their value so we COULD trade them for something than to give them away for nothing like we did with Jones.
• You are in Cleveland.  You can't throw 6 million or 16 million away on a free agent.  We did that with Zunino and Bell.  If Bell continues his upsurge we may get what we payed for.  Zunino looks like more of a waste.  Having the FO make huge gaffes like Zunino is not what you want to do with an owner who is opening the purse strings somewhat over previous years.  
• People have not talked about Will Brennan that much but he is really struggling.  I think, perfonally, he will make a much better major leaguer than Richie Palacios but, right now, I have to seriously start thinking about bringing up Palacios and sendding Brennan down.  Francona is so enamored with defense that I doubt he wants to send Brennan down.  Still, it is this disjointed thinking that allows him to play a bad hitter because he provides better defense.   Like I have said, defensive runs saved is a meaningless stat if you can't score any runs.   Teams today should be built on scoring runs and starting pitching, filling in the bullpen and defense after you have established those two things.  The classic mistake the Browns made was drafting Tim Couch but not drafting and expansion drafting stuff offensive linemen to protect him.  There has to be a similar hierarchy in the majors and that hierarchy CANNOT place defensive runs saved as high as Francona and the FO value them.  
• I think we are in a good place if McKenzie and Civale come back healthy and strong, which I think is a really possibility as they won't have been ground down by the season so far and shortening their season may actually make them fresh down the stretch and in the playoffs, if we get there.  We won't need to bring up Williams unless we trade Beiber and it would then be a no brainer to bring him up.  As I said, if you can get value for Beiber dump him now.  It's not like we don't have options to replace him.

Thanks to Everyone Who Views This Page!

 When I started this blog I did it for one reason: I wanted to find a place where I could write my ideas down and those people who wanted to read them could.  

This is the real problem with chat rooms.  Someone once told me that people don't want to go to a fan site and read opinions that call their favorite club into question.  

So, a few years ago, I decided to place my opinion in a place where those people didn't have to read them if those opinions upset them and the only people who would read my opinions were ones who wanted to hear what I was saying.

Last week I mentioned here I had passed a milestone.  I made my 1000th post on my Guardians Perspectve blog site.  

Yesterday I reached another milestone: The number of unique reads I have had on my posts.  

I won't share that number here except to say it is greater than 1000 (duh!) and less than 1 million.  

So, this post isn't about baseball as much as it is about saying thank you to the people who found my blog after I left/was kicked out of all the Cleveland Indians/Guardians chat rooms I once posted in.  

I don't know why I was ever in chat rooms, frankly.  Posting your own opinions on a blog site you started without having to have ANYONE read it is, well, liberating.  That's the key, really.  Nobody else has to read this site for me to feel like I have made my opinion known.

But some people DID read what I wrote and this post is a thank you to those people.

Oh, BTW, the Twins fought really hard tonight before losing in extra innings to the Dodgers in LA.  I don't think the Twins are going anywhere and I think we will be battling them the whole season.  Hopefully soon we go all St. Louis Cardinals and start some incredible offensive run while maintaining good pitching and get on a winning streak.  I still believe in the Cleveland Guardians this year.  I think the best is yet to come with this team...but it's nice once in a while to get help from another team to help us close the gap.  

Thanks and now, after this short intermission, it is time to start talking baseball again.

Thoughts for a Monday: Our Hitting Development Staff Sucks...Or Does it?

 Let's talk hitter development here.  Until last year, this was an area where the Guardians player development staff looked REALLY inept.  They couldn't seem to develop hitters, especially in the outfield.

Then, all of a sudden, last year Kwan, Gonzalez and Brennan showed up and Gimenez developed and the players in our farm system (Noel, Freeman, Rocchio, Valera, Martinez, Naylor and younger guys like Halpin, Fox, Tolentino and older guys like Pries and trade acquistion David Fry made big jumps in how they were valued by the organization.  I mean, even Nolan Jones and Will Benson finally started to show why they were drafted so highly.  Gone were the days of Ernie Clement, Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado flailing away at the air.  

So it looked like we were riding the wave of better hitter development in our farm system.  

Then came this year.  Gonzalez regressed, we saw how little Benson and Jones were valued around the league, realized that we couldn't develop Owen Miller into a successful big league hitter.  I thought, well, every organization has misses.  

But then I looked up and down the organization.  Here's what I see:

UPSIDES

• Walks are up around the organization.  Lynchburg, with their young hitters, were averaging over 6 walks a game with a little less than 9 strikeouts a game.
• Stolen bases are up around the organization.  Lynchburg has 105 through 33 games.  Only FIVE major league teams had that many in the entire season last year. 
• High level prosepcts like Freeman and Rocchio were flourishing at AAA as were lesser prospects like Palacios, Fry and Pries.

DOWNSIDES

• Very low percentage of homeruns.  In fact, Aaron Bracho, the forgotten man in our organization due to sub-Mendoza performances, is the only positive surprise at 6 HRs.  Through 33 games Lynchburg has 8 HRS.  That is Dominican Summer League production, a league where raw 16 year olds play.  And that's with us stacking our lineup with older college players
• Regression by guys like Brennan, Gonzalez, Martinez, Tena, Fox, Noel, Gabriel Rodriguez, Sanquintin, Lavastida.
• 2022 draftees like Furman (5 XBH), Lampe, the entire Lynchburg roster, Brito all have below average power, or at least that is what they are showing.  Slap hitters that the league is just finding out are slap hitters.  Watching the Lynchburg game last night the outfielders were playing our hitters like they did pitchers when pitchers were required to bat. Yikes!
• And we are still acquiring slap hitters, like Justin Boyd in the Benson trade.

So, is our hitter development staff successful or was last year just a blip and are they back to where they were considered to be pre-2022: PATHETIC

The answer is that it is too early to have an answer.  However, right now we are apparently NOT producing guys who the bright minds in the Guardians FO think will help the big league club and the prospects we are producing (e.g., Nolan Jones) apparently don't have much value on the trade market.

I think a good example of the Guardians 'approach' to hitting in the minors is exemplified by Lynchburg.  They are leading the Carolina League in runs per game (6) but are only hitting about .250, .267 with RISP, averaging 9 runners LOB a game and have only 8 HRs.   The approach that seems to being taught is to be patient and take your walks (something that is really easy to do in a low A league like the Carolina League), slap at the ball and steal bases.  While all those tactics can produce runs at low A ball, they just won't be effectve at higher levels where pitchers have more control, teams will not respect hitters without power and so the at bats ending with a runner on base will be less, rendering the stolen bases irrelevant.  Even in low A this approach yields Lynchburg only a .500 record.

I disagree with the approach the Guardians appear to be teaching their hitters.  I disagree with their draft approach which seems to feed into this take-your-walk and slap the ball approach, I disagree with acquiring more of these slap and patience guys (Brito and Boyd).    You have to have power to offset when bad things happen.  Without it, just like last year's Guardians, you have to be too perfect all the time.  There is no margin for error.  They have only played one game this year where they won by 5 runs.  Most of their wins and losses come in games decided by 1 or 2 runs.  A little more hitting, a little more power wins those games.  But they aren't signing, drafting or trading for guys who can do what Naylor has done the last 3 games, take a game over with a HR.  The results, to me, couldn't be more obvious.  While their approach is a nice smoke-and-mirrors play, it isn't something that can stand the test of time by itself.  You need some power to go along with that slap hitting, patience, base stealing approach.  If you don't pick some players who can exhibit power, if you don;t trade for those players, you just aren't going to win.  Hey, I could be wrong. As I said above, time will tell.  But the Guardians have invested so much financial and intellectual capital in this slap and run approach BEFORE knowing whether it will be successful long-term, I think they are making a big mistake.  

But time will tell.

Memories of the kind you don't forget...Mother's Day version

 Obviously this day makes me think of my mom.  Raised in the north, a strong, tough woman.  Happy Mother's Day, Mom.  

And happy Mother's Day to all the mothers and expectant moms out there.  

In thinkiing about this day and the memories I have of it, I was once again amazed when I saw, over this weekend, a historic memory that I hope I never forget.

Josh Naylor, three days in a row, hitting the go-ahead HR in the bottom of the 8th inning to give us a chance to win.  Although Clase blew one and he and Stephan were shaky in the other two, we still won the series.

So, throughout the rest of my life I will remember the weekend that Josh Naylor became the hero, over and over and over again.  

Miraculous, historic and epic.  Baseball drama at its best.

One point about his heroics.  I truly believe that he got pitches to hit because they didn't want to necessarily have to pitch to Josh Bell who is heating up.  So, our prime off-season acquisition also played a secondary role in these games.  

Guardians:

• Francona's lineup decisions are puzzling.  Giving Arias too many chances.  Continuing to play Zunino, not giving Freeman or Fry a chance.
• On that note, of our three catchers that played this weekend, Fry made the best throw to second base trying to get a runner trying to steal.  Imaging that!
• Bibee, facing another team for the first time in his career, looked great again.  Francona, in typical Francona fashion, left him in too long.
• Clase is really scaring me.  EVERYBODY is barreling his pitches.  

Minors:

• Ryan Webb looked a little shaky again today.  Waiting for him to get more consistent.  Five walks just aren't going to cut it.  Good news is that he appears healthy.  Threw 92 pitches today.  That's a great sign of his health.
• Joey Cantillo looked strong today until he walked two guys in the 5th and was lifted, his only two walks to go along with 3 hits and 6 Ks in 4.67 innings.
• Rocchio keeps hitting.  
• Good to see George Valera playing and in CF.
• Lampe and Palacios are slumping but Naylor is still in stride with his hitting.
• Maybe he never gets over the hump but Noel continues to look right on the cusp of going off.
• Move Furman and Messick up to Lake County.  Do it now.

Troll Alert! I'm Feeling Pretty Salty Tonight

 1. Do you realize if Clase had not blown 4 saves we would be in first place by a game now?  When your team is sucking and you need a spark to win, what in the freakin' heck do you think your closer blowing games like this does to your team morale?  I mean, can a guy throwing 96-97 really be hurt?  Don't know but something isn't right and, on a team where success is achieved by walking a thin line, we CANNOT afford to have our closer blow close games like this.

2. The end does not justify the means.  Naylor's track record about his ineptitude facing lefties outweighs, by a million times, any success he had in one game.  It was the stupid play to let him start and leave Freeman and Fry stay on the bench.  What message is Francona sending to the players?  'Hey, I hate rookies so much that I am not going to give you a chance when you are most likely to be successful and, instead, I am going to play a guy with a hugely smaller chance of being successful just because he is a veteran.'  Sounds like the message I heard tonight.  What about you and, more importantly, what about the players?  I guess if you sit these guys on the bench for a week to 10 days and then put them in for a game they are likely to fail.  Talk about self-fulfilling prophecy!  

3. When we sent Owen Miller to Milwaukee we were supposed to get a PTBNL back.  So who and when?  The 'when' is easy.  The trade has to be completed by June 15th, 6 months after Miller was traded to Milwaukee.  The who is more difficult.  Normally there is a list players that the Guardians would get to pick from.  Sometimes there are two lists, one if Miller would produce little or nothing for Milwaukee, another list if he was a more productive, or even a pivotal player.  Well, right now Miller is hitting .323 for the first place Milwaukee Brewers.  I would think we are clearly in 'productive' territory here.   So the player we get back should have SOME significance.  For example, if J.C. Mejia got us David Fry...well, you know what I am saying here, right?  Maybe a guy making his ACL debut like 2022 international signee like OFer like Luis Lara or a 2022 draftee like catcher Matt Wood.  I would be looking for a low minors guy who might take a 2-3 years to develop instead of someone we have to roster right now.

3. Surprise, surprise, rookie pitchers become less effective after a couple of starts and, generally, much less effectve after teams start to get 'a book' on the guy.  We are seeing that with Bibee, Battenfield and now Logan Allen.  This shouldn't really surprise anyone and it shows that the road may get rocky for these guys, and the Guardians, before it gets smoother.  Hope not but, in anticipation of that, the offense needs to get pumped up to account for that.

4. Get Brayan Rocchio to the majors now.  He is a switch hitter and, I think, will at least provide us with some base hits and some speed.  At least Freeman and Fry can provide some offense.  Gabriel Arias needs to be sent down.  Get Bo Naylor to the majors now.  He can't be any worse than Gallagher or Zunino and they should DFA the former.  If Brennan continues to struggle give Palacios a chance.  None of these moves has to be permanant (except the Gallagher DFA) but we need to keep trying players until something clicks.  Francona is so veteran-centric that it is hurting the team right now.

5.On a more positive note, let's talk about the minors

    a. Hunter Stanley looked OK tonight.  He was still throwing 93 in his last inning and extended up to over 90 pitches.  He didn't have wipeout stuff but it played well and he kept the damage to a minimum.  Remember, not counting the AFL last year, this 2021 draftee had exactly FOUR games of professional experience entering 2023.  For him to have ANY success at AA this year is surprising and heartening and there is a lot to like as this guy is JUST an 11th round draft pick.  Maybe the Guardans Finishing School for College Pitchers is still alive and well...at least for some guys.

    b. Keep an eye on Wuilfredo Antunez.  Unlike former Carolina League bashers like Alexfri Planez, Antunez is a contact-first guy.  I like his game more and more every time I see him.

    c. Zach Plesac with another product, albeit not dominant start.  

    d. Alonzo Richardson may develop but, right now, he doesn't miss a lot of bats, just not allowing hard contact.  The production is not bad but he just doesn't seem to be dominant.

6. Right now it looks like oft-injured Tyler O'Neill may in the doghouse in St. Louis.  Maybe it is time for a change-of-scenery trade.  How about Peyton Battenfield and Richie Palacios for O'Neill, who hits right-handed. It is important to note that when the Cardinals started winning it coincided with when O'Neill went on the IL.  Also the upside is there for the Cardinals and the downside doesn't damage the Guardians if O'Neill craters.  

7. I am a die hard Guardians' fan and have been for most of my life.  I have faith Francona will pull them out of this slide.  I really do.  As I get older I realize that I have fewer and fewer seasons left in my life to root for my team so forgive me if I never give up on them in any season...and certainly not in this one.  I have faith it will be a magical year for the Guardians, just like last year was.  I still think it is not out of the question and would be the greatest baseball moment in my life if the Guardians and Cardinals made it to the WS this year and the Guardians won in 7 games. 

The Next Wave

 OK, so I am now a convert.   It is time for the next wave of pitching.  Let's bring up Gavin Williams.  But what happens as a result of and after that?  That is the subject of this post.

• Gavin Williams gets added to the 40-man.  Who comes off?
• Pitchers?  
• Zach Plesac - We would likely DFA him, meaning we sell low on his trade value.  Some people are OK with that because they are just done with him.  I, personally, never like to give away assets without getting something in return.
• Aaron Civale - I don't see this happening but he has been quite mediocre most of his career and, last year, was downright replacement level of below in most of his starts.  

With either of these pitchers you aren't getting much back if you DFA them and I absolutely hate that but I think that if Willaims comes up, one of the guys above become expendable.  Frankly, I think Plesac could become a great multi-inning reliever if he could just get his head around that role, but I don't know if his mind would allow for that.  

• Position players
• Cam Gallagher, with the concomitant promotion of Bo Naylor - Naylor has trouble throwing out runners.  So does Gallagher.  So does Zunino who has many more issues than that.  So a positive move on all fronts.
• Jose Tena - something is wrong with this guy.  Don't know what but if they decide it isn't fixable, he could be gone
• Juan Brito - My favorite whipping boy, Nolan Jones hasn't made it out of AAA yet so if you were ever going to declare this trade a failure, now is the time to do it.
• Oscar Gonzalez - Talk about how the mighty have fallen!  The fact that he is even on this list after his rookie season shows that he has has cratered in Franmil Reyes-like fashion.  
• Richie Palacios - The second dumbest move we could make, he IS quite redundant to our current outfielders but is still, in my opinion, a decent prospect and if Brennan fails, Palacios is a good fall-back.  But that is what I thought about Nolan Jones so what do I know?
• Jhonkensy Noel - Hear me out.  He IS one step away from the majors but that step is the toughest one, and one Bobby Bradley could never quite make and that Oscar Gonzalez may not be able to make again.  I could see them dumping him but, with a guy like Noel, you want to hold onto him until you are absolutely sure that the light bulb isn't going to go on.  
• Gavin Williams gets added to the rotation.  Who is out?  Remember the rotation should, eventually, be Beiber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Williams, #5 (Bibee or Allen). We have to choose between Bibee and Allen for who gets the last spot, as crazy as that seems and that's IF Civale loses his rotation spot.
• Peyton Battenfield - The natural choice as his stuff is pedestrian.  Battenfield goes back to AAA and bids his time in case of injury.
• Aaron Civale - It is not out of the question that he joins Plesac, Battenfield, Allen and Gaddis in the rotation at Columbus as they all bide their time until 
• Logan Allen - How crazy would it be for Allen to go down when Williams came up?  Too crazy, I think.  Still, I think Allen's pure stuff/moxie plays up less than any of the other guys.
• What's left down below?  Not much, actually, beyond Plesac, Civale, Battenfield, Allen and Gaddis.  After Williams comes up you only have a bunch of question marks.
• Espino - Not until 2025, if then
• Cantillo - Some days it looks like this year but some days it looks like late 2024.  Not really imminent, however, until he strings together some strong starts (in his SECOND year at AA!!!) and then proves it can translate to AAA.
• Burns - Maybe never
• Nikhazy - Maybe not ever
• Campbell - 2025 at the earliest given what is going on with him this year
• Mace - Maybe not ever part #2
• Messick/Dion - 2025 at the earliest.

The thing about the guys who are left AFTER Williams is promoted is that NONE of them may EVRE show enough to make the majors, with Cantillo, right now, being head and shoulders above any of the rest of them in terms of talent and performance.  

SUMMARY - So there you have it.  Williams being promoted starts his arbitration, option and FA clocks one year ahead of where they should have started.  It creates a domino effect that will cause us to likely DFA or give away for little return, another player, maybe even a true prospect.  It will also deplete our quality starters from the minors and leave us with little in terms of replacements at AAA except for Logan and guys who have struggled recently.  

I hope the FO doesn't do anything that is silly leaving the FO supporters saying 'what did you exepct to get for [fill in the blank], he sucks so bad he isn't worth anything' and the rest of us saying "Really, you took cash for this guy instead of a good prospect coming back."