The Price for Sean Murphy

 Courtesy of the Twitter feed at Cleveland Guardians Prospective we have to following ask from the Oakland A's for St. Louis to get Sean Murphy:

Lars Nootbar

Brendan Donovan

Gordon Graceffo

While I am a diehard Guardians fan I spent more than half my life (and most of my adult life) in St. Louis so I follow them closely, too.  

From my perspective this would not be a big price to pay to get Murphy.  Maybe the Cardinals don't think that Murphy is worth this but I think it is a reasonable price.  Here's why:

If you don't follow the Cardinals closely you will not know that Nootbar was hitting about .150 when he was sent to the minors in the middle of 2022. When he came back he hit much better but, still... He is a fan favorite in St. Louis based on his clutch performances and his name (hear the fans cheering NOOOOOOOOOOOOTBAR).  He is also a classic Moneyball darling where OBP dominates hitting and stolen bases are not worth anything.  He is an OK but not great outfielder.   Basically, he is Steven Kwan-light.  Donavon won a Gold Glove as a swiss army knife and placed well in the NL ROY award voting.  Still, I have seen him all year and while he is likely going to be a valuable player it is as a Moneyball piece on a good team.  In other words, he is much more valuable to the Cardinals than he would be in a trade to a rebuilding team like the A's.  

Neither Nootbar or Donovan were listed on the BA top prospects (or other prospects) in the 2021 listing and Nootbar was #6 and Donovan #18 in the BA rating at the beginning of the 2022 season.  Graceffo was #15 for BA and is currently #3 in the Cardinals system (#79 in baseball by MLB Pipeline) with only 1/2 in AA.

In my opinion, NONE of these guys would be a big loss to the Cardinals and I can't believe that they wouldn't make this deal in a heartbeat.

That being said, I look this proposed trade and say I could beat it with the following package:

Logan T. Allen

Brayan Rocchio

Will Brennan

Juan Brito

I would make this deal in a heartbeat as none of these guys are needed in Cleveland right now or even, likely in the future.

I would throw in some more, obviously, to get AJ Puk included and that is still my goal.  

Post Rule 5 post

 Kevin Kelly and Nic Enright, eh?   OK, color me surprised.   I would have thought that every team had minor league relief pitchers who were basically organizational players.  No way would I have ever have added them to the 40-man if I were GM as there are too many more impactful positions on the field than middle reliever.  Good luck to those guys as this gives them a grab at the brass ring and, as relievers, probably a better than average chance of sticking with their drafting team.

Kudos also to the Guardians player development system and, specifically, their pitcher development system.   It is hard now not to get uber-excited about the 2021 draft knowing how many college pitchers we drafted that year and that the Guardians have cranked out relievers of the caliber of Kelly and Enright by developing college pitchers drafted after round 10.

Though we may have lost two in the ML portion (minor league portion later) we still have Battenfield who gives us starting and maybe relieving depth at AAA.and we did not lose any position players.   Hopefully Hankins and Torres Jr. are healthy this coming year and break out.  Ditto for Gabriel and Jonathon Rodriguez.  

In the minor league portion we lose LHP Eli Longos and gain RHP Bradley Hanner, C Michael Berglund and RHP Justin Lewis.   We will have to wait to see about the new guys but it is great that we didn't lose anyone else from our top 78 (group after the 40-man roster and the 38 guys we could have protected on our AAA reserve list).

  

Rule 5 Update

Less than 2 hours left before the Rule 5 and here is what I see:

1) The Guardians will have 3 players drafted today:

a) Peyton Battenfield - If he is around when Tampa Bay picks I see him going to TB today. TB just cleared another roster spot this morning and I see them taking 2 players in the ML portion of the Rule 5.  In a funny twist if he makes it by TB I see him being drafted by the Yankees.  The Yanks would not take him to be spiteful but as I could see him filling a need in the Yankees bullpen or rotation I see them picking him with glee to feel better about losing Trevor Stephan.

b) Jonathon Rodriguez - I see him going to Oakland and, if not them, he may last until the second round and then could go to whoever drafted a player in the first round.  Again, this is one of those situations like Hector Rondon was a few years ago where potential based on his performance this year + a good winter in the Puerto Rico league vaults a guy who was a question mark into a guy who the team thinks could go all Akil Badoo.   Don't be surprised if Pittsburgh or Washington picks him, however.  

c) Trey Benton - The buzz on him is hard to deny and I see some team active in the Rule 5 taking him in the second round or maybe even in the 3rd round if they are in a deep rebuild like the A's are.    More likely, though, I see him going to a team like the Pirates who might see him as a real lottery ticket who could blossom by next year into a ML closer as compared to some teams who would look at him as a complimentary piece down the road with a chance at more after that.

That's it.   Those are the Guardians players I predict who will be selected in the major league portion of the Rule 5.   

Of less interest but still interesting is who the Guardians will leave exposed to the AAA phase.  Remember, we have so many decent prospects that guys we don't even have in the top 50 of our prospects might fit into the end of the top 30 in other organizations.   As we can only protect so many (I think 30) on our AAA reserve list, there will likely be some spillover of decent prospects into the group eligible for the AAA portion.  There may be some surpising names who may be selected there, as well.  Here are a list of guys I think the Guardians might lose in the AAA portion:

Robert Broom 

Elvis Jerez

Sergio Morillo

Aaron Bracho

Rey Delgado

Marcos Gonzalez

Kyle Marman

Brauny Munoz

Adam Scott

Victor Planchart

Eric Rodriguez

This is just a partial list but you can see what I mean.  There are guys on this list who don't fall into the first or second tier level of our unrostered, Rule 5-eligible prospects who might have a chance to make it to the majors.

Well, time is almost here.  Keep your fingers crossed that our losses are zero.

thoughts for a Wednesday - Rule 5, Rapid Fire Signings and Could We Make Two More Splashes?

 General Rule 5 Thoughts Heading Into The Draft Today:

• My experience in the Rule 5 is the following
• Teams draft for long-term value combined with present utility.   Thus Trevor Stephan was a minor league starter with possible utility as a reliever.  When I see people predict that minor league relievers are going to be drafted in the ML portion of the Rule 5 I am skeptical.  Minor league relievers can only be drafted for present value as it has already been determined that this is their upside.   The only exception would be a guy like Carlos Vargas, if he was available and simply because of that 102 mph fastball.   Matt Carver, who we traded Vargas for, would be the classic guy NOT to be drafted as, while his curveball is apparently great, he doesn't have present value without a dominant fastball.   I would be really surpirsed if the Guardians had any of their minor league relievers drafted.  The most appealing one, Tim Herrin, (lefty, hard thrower) was already protected.
• I think given, given the 26 man regular season roster AND the dearth of good catchers in the majors now, you will see more teams draft catchers in the Rule 5 as they can stash them as a 3rd catcher on their roster.  This is extra likely if the player can play another position.  I will put in another plug here about how drastically stupid I think the Guardians were for passing us college catcher Daniel Susac in the first round of this year's amateur draft. The fact that they passed him up for another left-handed hitting outfielder with serious warts on his game is another issue.  But this is a mistake they will pay for for years, in my opinion.  This year's Rule 5 draft will show how desperate MLB is for catching.  Susac would have been an immediate impact trade chip and a long term asset at catcher who would have dove-tailed very well with Bo Naylor's development and skillset.  Arrrrrrrgh!
• Look for teams to do what they normally do vis-a-vis postion players in the Rule 5
• Draft good hitting middle infielders who are lower in the minors and so realistically 2-3 years away from the majors and try to make them utility players.  Note concerning Juan Brito.  Had someone drafted him and stashed him they would have saved a minor league option with him meaning he would likely NOT run out of minor league options before he made the majors.
• Draft high power corner infielders and outfielders who they can plug in at DH.  We really have none of these guys
• Draft high octane pitching arms, especially if they are coming off injury.  I see us losing no one here.  Lenny Torres Jr. and Ethan Hankins are likely too far away from the majors and don't really have high octane stuff being more pitchability guys.   Even if they are stashed for a year on the 60 day I don't see their trajectory as beinb able to be accelerated.  That is, even if they develop it will be slow and the drafting team is unlikely to see benefit for 2-3 years.  Not an ideal Rule 5 situation which is one year hiding in the majors, one developmental year in the minors, back up to the big league full-time.
• The Guardians roster is not technically full but, with Josh Bell coming on board, it is functionally full.  They won't be drafting anyone today unless they make a trade.   DFAing the now-expendable Owen Miller or trading him for peanuts would be, in my opinion, very foolhardy just to open space on your roster for a Rule 5 guy.
• Still think Peyton Battenfield will be drafted today although he might not be the first Guardian prospect to be drafted in today's Rule 5.   Not saying if the first guy will be a current or former Guardians' prospect.  Hmmmmm!
• Senga or Rodon.   Rodon or Senga.   Either one would vault this team into competition for a WS spot and the length of contract it would take to get either is right in line with our Jose Ramirez/prospect laden team/system competiive roster window.
• So far what I have seen is that the Astros adding Abreu really has made every other signing irrelevant.   Judge going back to NY is great for the fans but doesn't change the optics on them getting to the WS.
• The Phillies with the worst record of playoff teams having to draft 29th because they made the WS really doesn't mesh with the non-tanking idea.  I know, they made the WS and generated extra cash present and future as a result but they should have drafted where their regular season record showed.   If they are a one-year wonder (likely) they will be punished for getting hot at the right time.  I don't like that.  The non-tanking lottery I get.  The Phillies drafting 29th is a mistake in the system as it punishes success.  
• I hope we sign or trade for a catcher today, as long as we don't get robbed.

Josh Bell it is!

 Two years $33 million with an opt out after the first year.     We needed a good first baseman who can hit and we got a switch hitter out of this.  I just hope he is a good, veteran leader.  This clubhouse could be hurt by infusion of any got mine first guys.  I just sensed that Abreu was a better teammate and a better clubhouse presence but let's hope that's because there wasn't much leading that could go on with the Pirates in a rebuild.   

As mentioned elsewhere, the base salary is at a level that making a qualifying offer on him after the first year would be doable if he choses the opt-out clause, unless his contract forbids us from doing that.

I like the move.  Bell is a significant improvement over Owen Miller but I am waiting for the other shoe to drop here in the form of another signing or a trade or a DFA to clear more roster space.  

Still would like to see Murphy here for continuity at catcher but Vasquez for 2 years wouldn't kill Bo Naylor's development so, either way it could work.

I don't want to eat these words later but it doesn't look like the Guardians are willing to pay the Athletics exorbitant price so either that price will have to come down or we are going a different direction (Jansen or Vazquez.

Tomorrow I hope we get a little more clarity on our catcher position and, although I don't hold out a lot of hope, maybe we even get through the Rule 5 tomorrow unscathed.  Except for Battenfield, I do believe was, during the season and afterwards, protected all the guys we should have protected this year.

2022 Rule 5 Draft - Comings (maybe) and Goings (hopefully not)

 Look, I am not alone among people who think the Rule 5 draft either needs to be eliminated or greatly modified.  Before we get started, stay tuned for my regular plug for how this should be changed:

(1) Players signed before their 18th birthday are eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the season in which they turn 22 years old

(2) Players signed when they are 18 to 21 years old are eligible for the first Rule 5 that occurs 5 years after they were signed.

(3) Players signed when they are 22 years old or older are eligible after the season in which they turn 25.

(4) Minor league free agency rules would remain as they are now with one revision: players signed before their 17th birthday had to wait 7 seasons before they could reach free agency, if not added to their team's 40-man roster.

Now that we have public service announcement out of the say, let's proceed.

Who's Coming?

The Guardians, theoretically, have one roster spot available if they want to use it for a Rule 5 draftee.  It is tricky to do that if they intent to sign a free agent which would lead to them having to DFA someone.  The two most likely candidates in that situation would be Will Benson and Owen Miller.  While neither of them appear to IMPORTANT pieces to the 2023 team they are not necessarily fungible, either.  I don't think it is wise to sign a Rule 5 flyer unless you have a plan to do a trade to clear out roster space before you sign any free agents.   But let's dream on who we might draft and assume our crack front office has a plan not to lose for nothing assets who might help the team at some point in 2023.  

1) Erik Miller LHP Phillies - We need a second lefty in the pen and Miller seems to fit that bill.  Even though I would rather have AJ Puk, Miller might fit the bill at a cheaper price.

2) Blake Sabol OF/C Pirates - Sabol has only one thing going for him, he can catch AND play the OF.   I don't see drafting him when we already have Naylor and Lavastida at the same level of the minors but it is worth a thought.

3) Logan Porter C/1B Royals - Another multiple position guy who could catch, the same thing applies to him as does Sabol.  Is he good enough defensively at catcher for the Guardians to take a flyer on him?

4) Malcom Nunez 1B Pirates - Here is a righty hitter who reminds me a little of Oscar Gonzalez but who plays 1B.  Could he be the lightning in the bottle if we get shut out of good RH hitting 1B candidates?

5) Peyton Battenfield or Nic Enright RHPs, Guardans - Don't laugh.  It would not be the first time a team drafted one of its own players in the Rule 5.  Hey, last year if the Rule 5 existed I would not have been surprised, if they had an open roster spot, if the Guardians might not have drafted Oscar Gonzalez.  Last year it would have looked pretty stupid as I thought there was enough fluff on the roster that I would have kept Gonzalez when the 40-man rosters were set.  But, sometimes, it is better to be lucky than good and we ended up with Gonzalez due to no 40-man.  But I digress.  Enight has enough Rule 5 buzz about him AND he could slot in to the bullpen right now to replace Bryan Shaw's innings (low leverage, multi-inning sacrificial lamb in blowouts role).  If they think the buzz is great about Enrights and they are afraid they will lose him and don't want to, don't be surpirsed if the Guardians use that 40th roster spot to draft Enright, Battenfield or another one of our minor league relief prospects.  I don't see them losing Ethan Hankins as I think team will realize that even if they can stash him on the 26 all year, his current development path won't get him to the majors until he has exhaused or come close to exhausted his minor league options.  

There you have it.   I only listed two catchers here but if there are other catchers who the Guardians think could be good placeholders for Naylor's arrival in July and who have long-term upside, don't be suprised if they tab a catcher not on this list.

Who's Going

This is where us prospect geeks really start to sweat.   I mean, every minor league could turn into the next incarnation of  Anthony Santander or even a relief option who could turn into Enyel De Los Santos part deux.   With that in mind here are the guys, with percentages of being drafted, who I think are primed to be selected from the Guardians this year:

1) Peyton Battenfield (80%) - I have already said I think the Guardians whiffed on not rostering him.  They traded for a guy with limited starting experience in college or the pros and judged him on the basis of the drop in his velo this year when he worked, by far, the biggest inning load he has ever had and did it in a hitter's park at the highest level of the minors.  Just looking at Logan Allen this year you can see that even your best pitching prospects can struggle at that level.

I think Battenfield is almost a lock to get selected.  He pitched almost exclusively in relief in college meaning he understands that role.  He has starter upside and a team can stash him as a likely very effective reliever on their roster this year.  There are enough rebuilding teams that I think he gets his first ML opportunity this coming spring.

2) Ethan Hankins (50%) - How could you not?   Injured pitcher who you could stash on the 60 most of the season?  Giving you next year, as well, to evaluate and develop him in a low leverage role.  I think it is likely some team will bite on him although his odds of sticking in the majors this year are really small.

3) Nic Enright (30%) - Unlike Baseball America I am not very high on him being drafted.   However, if their is an analytics-based rebuilding team like the Athletics who can look past his low velo and look at his fastball spin rate and direction, he might get drafted, especially on a team that winning is secondary to building a long-term roster.  Still, projecting Enright he doesn't, to me, project as even a tradeable asset 1 to 2 years down the road.   He just doesn't throw hard enough.  Doesn't mean he won't be drafted but I just don't think the value is there for him to be drafted.

4) Jonathon Rodriguea (30%) - Winter league stats seem to be very important to teams drafting in the Rule 5 although it is hard to believe that, in this analytics-based era, that what =-have-you-done-for-me-lately stats hold any water at all.   That being said, Rodriguez appears either on the steep upward climb of his development that started as a 17 year old or he peaked this past year in A ball.  How teams view his winter stats in relationship to his 2022 stats and his development pathway steepness make him a possibility to be drafted and do an Akil Badoo for some team.

5) Kevin Kelly, Trey Benton, Andrew Misiasek and other minor league relievers (20%) - I just don't see how a team could take a shot at a reliever-only minor leaguer who has not dazzled.  I mean Grant Sides is the perfect example of how drafting these guys in a Rule 5 is really foolhardy.  You might get a little novelty bump in current value but, in the long-term, the gamble for dramatic improvement necessary to be successful in the near future in the majors in leverage situations just doesn't seem like a good gamble for a team having to roster that guy.

6)  David Fry (25%) - Why, on earth would I say a team should draft a borderline catcher (see above) when they have a Rule 5 eligible guy who they could have rostered who can be a backup catcher?  I don't know but I think you will see more catchers drafted in this Rule 5 than in any other previous R5 draft.  

OK, there you have it.  Now the waiting, wrenching of hands and gnashing ot teeth begins!   

Desperation

 Let me paint you a picture.  It is a picture of the Cleveland Guardains' front office.   I actually want to paint two pictures.  One I will title "Desperation" and one I will title "Solid as a Rock"

To begin, my philosophy is a simple one:

Prospects are worth more than money.   The thing about money is you can go to the bank and get more of it.  The thing about prospects, GOOD prospects is that they cost money and they are cheap.  They are also trade capital for a situation where you can't get the guy you want in free agency (way too expensive, doesn't want to play in Cleveland).

So you have a plan going into the off-season but, as Mike Tyson says, everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth.  The thing Mike Tyson doesn't say is AFTER you get hit in the mouth you better damn well have a good second plan..

DESPERATION

Part 1 

BAM! Jose Abreu signs with the Astros.

The contract Abreu signed shows me the Guardians placed a value on him and weren't willing to go much above it.  It also shows me that they still don't get free agency.  You have someone you want, you better be wlling to overpay for him, both in years and dollars, and, in so doing, realize you are NEVER going to get full value for that person.

We still have a good fit at first base in Josh Bell...but we have to get him no matter the cost.   If we don't get him, everyone else has warts:

1. JD Martinez doesn't help getting Naylor off the field as he doesn't play 1B.   It potentially hurts the health of the Guardians as I believe a big reason they suffered so few injuries last year was the use of the DH spot down the stretch to rest guys legs but keep their bat in the lineup.  

2. Trey Mancini helps out a lot but, for some reason, I am just non board with him.  I guess, in a pinch he is OK.

3. The rest of the guys you could get will help, compared to having to play Owen Miller again but, in my opinion, they won't move us close enough to the Astros, Yankees or Dodgers to make it worth it.  If your goal is to just win the division then some of these guys would be OK signings.   

BUT NOT AS PRELUDES TO OTHER MOVES

Part 2 

The Guardians know they have to improve their offense at catcher while not losing defense.    That is why Sean Murphy's name keeps coming up.

But here is the thing about Murphy.  He is a SUPPORTING piece if we do the other things (sign Josh Bell and pray he performs and maybe sign Mitch Haniger).  If you don't sign these guys your lineup is not much improved and, as little as Guardians' fans probably want to hear this, Murphy is ONLY valuable to if we sign these guys.  

And, of course, remember that prospects are ALWAYS more valuable than money.  

 I read one trade scenario for Sean Murphy yesterday that had us trading Valera, Rocchio, Freeman and Logan Allen for Murphy.   I might be willing to do that if they throw in AJ Puk but, again, I don't do that if I can't drastically improve my right-handed power hitting.

I would rather trade for a lesser talent at catcher or, even better, sign a free agent who is an upgrade over Hedges.

Don't panic just because you got punched in the mouth trying unsuccessfully in getting a firstbaseman.  Prospects are more valuable than money.  Don't overpay in prospects. Overpay in money.

Part 3

There is a lot of talk about upgrading from Civale and/or Plesac.   Well, if that upgrade is Carlos Rodon and you are willing to pay him, I say more power to you.  Overpay in money, not prospects.  However, if the Guardians are thinking they can TRADE for a starter to upgrade then remember, prospects are more valuable than money.    Plus, I don't see in 2023, Plesac and Civale repeating their 2022 seasons.  Instead, I see both of them returning to their plus WARs that they had for the rest of their career.  As cheap, veteran 4th/5th starters for one more year, there is no better value in baseball than these guys, IMHO.  So, let's say we don't get our firstbaseman and we have the sense to not overpay for Murphy, then incrementally improving our starting pitching at the backend makes no sense.  None.  Don't panic.

SOLID AS A ROCK

My plan here is very simple.  Treat this off-season like it is July 31st.   Don't overpay in prospects and take on as much salary as you can if it helps you fill holes.   

1. Put a realistic price on Murphy.  I would say Valera, Rocchio or Freeman, Allen and Brito.   If you get Puk you could pay a little more.  If you can't get that done you trade with Toronto for Danny Jansen.

2. If you can't get Bell or Mancini then you sign the next best RH hitting firstbaseman you can find just to upgrade over Miller.  

3. You keep Plesac and Civale and don't waste prospects and, likely, money to incrementally upgrade.  If you want to upgrade, break the bank for Rodon.  Remember, prospects are more valuable than money.   Having a rotation of Rodon, Beiber, McKenzie, Quantrll and Civale is good.  Having a rotation of Beiber, McKenzie, Quantrill, some unnamed #4 starter and Civale or Plesac is not helpful, especially if it costs more and/or costs us prospects.

4. Pull the typical rabbits out of their hat with astute minor league signings of free agents.

Now we'll see what happens.   If Antonnetti and Chernoff go into this with pressure from ownership to turn prospects into veterans we are screwed.  If they truly chose to change course and overpay for Bell and Haniger and then trade reasonably for Murphy then we have a chance to have something special here this year.  Go all in and sign Rodon, too, and we have a legitimate chance to slightly best the finish of our 2016 team.