2026 Draft - End of First Day Post

 SUMMARY

I think you can summarize the Guardians draft today in four bullets and a note:

1. They drafted Peterson, who is going to require some work to avoid being a bust.  That being said, he was one of the top college pitchers in the draft. If they think they can get to his upside AND if they think he has a better chance to get to that upside than some other college pitchers in this draft, then I hope they are right.

2. They drafted a HS pitcher in the 2nd round.  While he was a good value for the slot, value in the draft is only good if value in the major leagues is obtained.  The Guardians are historically so bad at obtaining ML value from HS pitcher draftees you have to ask yourself if this was a good value pick or just a good window dressing pick. When you consider that Doughty is the only HS pitcher who they have recently drafted who looks like a sure major leaguer, color me unconvinced that this pick was the best resources.

3. Their next two picks were LHH slap hitters.  Did they not learn how fruitless that was from Lampe, Furman, Hawke, Knapczyk and others they recently drafted in the top 5 rounds?  High floor, extremely low ceiling.  Not good!

4. All 4 of their picks today were very young for their class.  That sounds like trying to show you are the smartest guys in the draft.  Here is a thought. Some of the proposals for the next CBA involve free agency after 5 ML seasons and arbitration for everyone after 2 seasons. Thus, by drafting young guys, we could be paying these guys when they are very young and losing them another year before their prime if these rules go through.  Both of these are exacerbated by drafting younger than average guys.

NOTE: Had we had our CB-A pick we could have had our choice of Taylor Rabe or Hunter Dietz with that pick to go with Peterson. 

For comparison sakes, let's compare my last mock draft to this one:

#19: Me: Dietz (#17, went #35)  Guardians: Liam Peterson *#20)

#59: Me: Ryan Peterson (went #71)  Guardians: Logan Schmidt

#99: Me: Mass Yehl (went #91)  Guardians: Tre Broussard

#123: Me Nathan Taylor (went #101)   Guardians: Kade Lewis

So my draft was blow up early as Yehl and Taylor were snatched before I could get them. 

CONCLUSION

Frankly, I don't know where they go from here.  They are in the middle of the top 10 rounds now and this has been increibily unproductive over the past 3 years because of stupid draft strategies like LH slap hitters and pitchers who are way overdrafted.  

Let's hope they can pull their collective heads out of their butts and actually come up with a good draft strategy that will be successful for the next 16 rounds because, right now, this draft is very, very underwhelming and discouraging to me.  Not that it is bad, just that it has a better than average chance to turn out bad and it is based on a failed premise that LH slap hitters will work as a strategy and that we can develop HS pitching prospects into productive major leaguers.  The only group that we have shown the ability to develop is college pitchers and we only drafted one of them in 4 rounds.  So, no, I don't want any Aiden Majros, Dylan DeLucias, etc. tomorrow.  I don't want any more hit-over-power college hitters.  And I doubt that there are any quality college pitchers left.

So where does that leave us?  I don't know but I know that our history in these rounds suck and, somehow, these idiots need to figure out how to save this draft from turning out like 2022, 2023, 2024 and, maybe (time will tell) 2025.  

At leaset the Guardians won today because their draft room didn't, repeating the same things they have failed at in the recent past.

2026 Draft - Day 1 Live Post

 As the 2026 draft is about to begin I am doing what has become a yearly tradition for me: a live blog.

Before we start here are some general thoughts:

1. Draft picks should not be traded.  If you are a Cleveland fan of all their teams all I have to do is mention two names: Ted Stepien and DeShaun Watson.  Teams, especially CB draft choice teams should NEVER be allowed to trade draft picks.  Non-CB teams should only be allowed to trade draft picks for the next draft and only draft picks from rounds 11-20.

2. We need to eliminate the ML R5 draft.  When you draft a guy, you should get get the entire length of his control, including the time before he can become a minor league free agent. 

3. There are two basic draft strategies, quantity and quality.  The former relies on cost-saving picks and, recently, even obtaining CB picks to generate a large later round bonus pool for more flyer picks who require overslot bonuses.  The quality approach involves drafting the best player available, no matter the bonus demand. It is what you could refer to as grabbing the brass ring.

4. Watch the Guardians, maybe not in the first round, but overall to see if they are going cheap.  They have the bonus pool to go for ONE big HS flyer.  Whether it is Waechter, Frishkorn or even Thome, they should go for one of these guys.

5. If you see a draft pick delayed, it may have to do with pre-draft decisions.  If a guy has dropped and that team didn't anticipate that player being there, they might be on the phone negotiating to make sure they can sign that player.  If they can't agree on the bonus, they will go a different direction and that player who has dropped, will be talking to the next team interested in him.

6. I see so many college baseball games being streamed now, don't we think it is possible that AI could be used to d0 3/4 of the scouting?

So, we're off.

Picks 1-4 

These were all as predicted for a long time.  Nothing to talk about here.  Likely quality-based picks althought the top 4 picks almost always save huge amounts of pool, just based on the larger bonus slots of these 4 picks.

Pick 5-6

Curiel and Rose were the first surprises. People love to use 'overdraft'.   Heck, I do it, too. These were both quantity approach picks.

Picks 7-8

Booth and Burress are on-slot picks.  These are quality over quantity picks

Pick 9

Gracia is another quantity pick.  

Pick 10 

Colorado picks the safe SS, Tyler Bell.  I would have gone George Lombard if I was them so I think this was slightly quantity over quality draft but it shouldn't impact, one way or the other, on their ability to draft aggressively later in the draft.  And they DO need to draft aggressively from here on out.

Pick 11 

Hacopian is a quanitity pick.

Pick 12

Gridlinger to the Angels is more of a quality, brase ring grab pick.  They are looking at a long rebuild and need star=quality prospects, not just good, solid prospects.

Pick 13

Thirteenth player selected, thirteenth-ranked prospect.  Solid, long-term play for the Cardinals.  

NOTE: Lebron & Helfrick are still on the board.  It will be interesting to see if they fall like rocks due to worries about their junior year hitting.  

Pick 14 

Clearly the most aggressive, quality pick in this draft so far.  Miami fans should be excited.  

Pick 15

Just like the Miami fans have to be ecstatic, the Diamondback fans have to have mixed emotions right now.  He has a floor of Austin Hedges but the question is how much better than Hedges will he be as a hitter.  I would have been disappointed if the Guardians drafted him in the firsst round but obviously the D-bakcs think like the Guardians do.  Defense at catcher is uber important.

Pick 16

Texas goes for the best HS pitcher in the draft.  Again, this is a quality pick but within slot.  It is a long-term play as the Rangers do not appear concerned with stuffing the top of their pitcher prospect list with players closer to the majors,,,or they just don't like any of the college pitchers left.

Pick 17

Houston picks the 42nd best player in the draft to get a college bat.  Seems like a quanitity over quality pick.  He is a solid prospect that should save Houston some money.

NOTE: I see teams mavbe saving money for HS flyers later, maybe a little more than normal.

Pick 18

Wow, Lebron to the Reds.  This is a gamble from them.  I hope it works out.

Pick 19 

There were FIVE pitchers the Guardians could have gone with: Peterson, Flukey, Dietz, Kuhns, Carlon.  They picked Peterson.  In theory, there were no bad picks here.  I have to think that his upside was what they want and they feel they can fix him to reach that upside.  Look for the Red Sox to pop Dietz.

Picks 20-28

I am lumping these together as I move on to other things in my day.  Here are my thoughts:

Schaffner - Clear quanitity pick, saving money for later

Borthwick - Quantity pick

Flukey - Tigers getting a solid college pitcher with a gamble level about the same, on paper, as Peterson but 3 picks later.  Again, no wrong pick in this range for college pitchers, just who you think you can develop in your system

Townsend - What I just said about Flukey

Reese - Good college hitter. Likely undervalued as his position may end up being 1B but a good vlaue.

Ebel - Long term quantity play here.  Lowest ranked pick drafted so far.  Teams like who they like.

Beck - As in most drafts, at some point, things go off the rail.  This is the case with Beck. Clearly an extreme quantity play.  Head scratching decisions are made by teams every draft and this is one of them.  

 Wiggins - Wow, not only an overdraft but a draft OVER his highly ranked college teammate, Dietz.  Now I am starting to think something medical is going on with Dietz.  Time will tell.

Radel - Interesting.  Probably quantity over quality but the back story with Kuhns, Dietz, Rabe, etc. becomes even more interesting.

NOTE: Remember when we traded for Bailey and I didn't like it.  Well here we are at 29 and we could have had our choice of Dietz, Rabe, Kuhns, Carlon and Edwards, to say nothing about Daniel Jackson on the position player side.  Really wish I had the #29 pick instead of Bailey.

2026 Draft - Part 7 - Final Pre-Draft Thoughts and Final Mock Draft

 FINAL PRE-DRAFT THOUGHTS

This is the time of the draft cycle where I get the most nervous.  The Guardians, ever since the 2021 draft, have, in my opinion, acted like they are the smartest guys in the draft.  The 2022 and 2023 slap hitter drafts were very ill conceived.  The 2025 draft of college hitters in a college pitcher heavy draft felt the same way and still does, despite those guys feasting on inexperienced pitchers in the Midwest League.  The Guardians have been tied to HS hitters, college contact hitters and even some college power hitters in the first round of the 2026 draft.  People have claimed that they are looking into the power hitter demographic in college and in high school.  The phrase, you can never have too much pitching, should be on a big banner in their draft room.  Since 2022 with Campbell and Messick, they have not drafted a quality college starting pitcher and it shows in their minor league depth and pitcher prospect pipeline close to the majors. Their minor league rotations are full of lower level college pitchers, none of whom is having much, if any, success.  

Given that the 2025 draft has the potential to be one of the worst in Guardians history (IMO, the hitters success from that draft comes against lower level competition and, even then, comes with red flags like too many Ks and bad defense).  We need to be following up that draft with a safer one that fills needs in our system, not a brass ring grab of HS players who have a high failure rate and clearly take a longer time to develop than college players.  We just can't afford to have the Guardians act like they are the smartest guys in the room or not have a solid plan to fall back on if they get punched in the mouth by not getting their guy or their backup plan to that guy, in the first 5 rounds of the draft like I am convinced happened in 2025.

Guardians: pitching and defense wins.  Draft to the part of that philosophy that involves pitching and your developmental strengths.  So, that leads me to my final mock draft before the action starts tomorrow.  As you will see, mine is a strange draft that has two parts: college pitching and lower ranked college power hitters.  That latter group is likely to littered with organizational guys but if even one or two of those picks click to produce a ML power hitter, it will be wildly successful.

FINAL MOCK DRAFT

I have described my draft philosophy which is, simply put, college pitching x9 and a HS pitching flyer in the first 10 rounds. So, drum roll please, here is my 2026 final pre-draft Guardians mock draft:

#19 - Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas (Baseball America: 35, ESPN: 15, MLB: 17,  Over-Slot: 24)

        - Alternate Selection: Taylor Rabe, RHP, Ole Miss (BA: 26, ESPN: 48, MLB: 40 , O-S: 26)

#59 - Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston State (BA: 84, ESPN: 154, MLB: 86, O-S: 151)

#95 - Maxx Yehl LHP, West Virginia (BA: 124, ESPN: 161, MLB: 217; O-S: 104)

#123 - Nathan Taylor RHP, Cincinnati (BA: 144, ESPN: 242, MLB: 215, O-S: 167)

#155 - Josh McDevitt, RHP, Missouri (BA: 197, MLB: 236, ESPN: NR, O-S: 278)

#184 - Cam Johnson, LHP, Oklahoma (BA: 184, ESPN: NR, MLB: 250, O-S: 425)

            Alternate Selection: Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA

    

#213 - Zane Adams, LHP, Alabama (BA: 221, ESPN: NR, MLB:NR , O-S: 291)

#243 - Jensen Hirschkorn, RHP, HS (BA: 43, ESPN: 58, MLB: 56, O-S: 71) - HS RHP overslot $2.5 MM flyer

#273 - Gavin Van Kempen, RHP, East Carolina (BA: 274, MLB: NR, ESPN: NR, O-S: NR)

#303 - J.P. Robertson, RHP, Ole Miss (BA: NR, ESPN: NR , MLB: NR , O-S: 387)

Seeing the BA rankings, this is an aggressive mock as some of these guys (like Yehl, for example) may be gone at the slots I picked them.  I am so locked into the first 6 pitchers that, except for the first round where we would likely have guys like Rabe, Kuhn, Townsend, Carlon, Edwards and maybe even Liam Peterson, in that order, if Dietz is gone,  if one of my picks in rounds 2-6 weren't available, I just would insert Cal Randall, RHP UCLA or move everyone up one slot and then backfill. Then I would backfill with a college pitcher or an overslot HS hitter.  

My rounds 11-20 will likely be almost all college power hitters, many of them senior signs. I am done with the HS flyer pitchers (except for one) and gimmick college pitchers (e.g., Schuelke).  If even one or two of these college power hitters pan out, this would be wildly successful.  Remember, last year I predicted Boston Smith & John Day as my late round college power hitters and both are doing very well in the minors in their first full year.  So, that's my plan.

Here is an example of what I would do, should these guys be available.:

333 - Mark Quatrani, C, Notre Dame (Note: I saw him hit a 462 foot HR)

363 - Judd Utemark, UTIL, Ole Miss

393 - Michael Anderson - 1B - Penn St.

423 - Michael O'Shaunesy - INF - Georgia

453 - Grayson Fitzwater, 1B/OF, VMI

483 - Chris Katz, LF/RF/C, Mercer

513 - Alec Welshans, UTIL - La Salle

543 - Dagen Brewer, OF, Pittsburgh St.

573 - Joe Whitaker, INF, Belmont Abbey

603 - David Hinojosa, RHP, NY HS

This group has 1 college junior (Quatrani), 8 college senior power hitters and the usual late round HS flyer (Hinojosa).  I know this is incredibly unusual but as picks 11-29 rarely pan out, these picks at least pay homage to the Guardians desire to infuse more power bats into their system.

Now the waiting starts.  Hopefully, whoever the Guardians draft, will be well thought out, balancing floor and ceiling and, in 3 years or so, we will see a lot of these guys in Cleveland helping the ML team win a WS!

2026 Draft - Part 6 - Lessons From Past Drafts - Demographics and What They Should Point the Guardians Towards In This Draft

 OK, there is a lot of buzz about who the Guardians are rumored to be taking early in the 2026 draft.  Like everything else, the Guardians play this stuff close to the vest so its hard to invest much angst at this point.  But...

Any post by me about what they have done in the recent past will create strawmen which may or may not be accurate.

I get that. 

And plans change if other teams make surprise picks or have the same plan as you do, but with earlier selections in each round.  I get that, too.

Nevertheless, when I hear that the Guardians are going to leaning toward a particular demographic, I have to ask myself how that worked for them in the recent past.

 I have heard are that the Guardians will be looking at college and HS bats.  The former may include power hitters and contact hitters and the latter is leaning more toward power hitters.  Still, the consensus is that they could be looking at bats instead of arms.

So, looking back, let's see how targeting a particular demographic has worked for them recently, using just data from the first 5 rounds, which is when a team is most likely to get the players they covet the most, looking at the highest level they have played A LOT at:

2020

1 (23) -  Preston Tucker - HS Hitter - released

CBA - Tanner Burnes Collete Pitcher - released

2 - Logan Allen College Pitcher - Majors

3 - Petey Halpin HS Hitter - AAA (ML cup of coffee)

4 - Milan Tolentino HS Hitter - AAA

5 - Mason Hickman College Pitcher - released

2021

1 (23) Gavin Williams College Pitcher - Majors

2 - Doug Nikhazy College Pitcher - AAA (ML cup of coffee)

CBB Tommy Mace - Collet Pitcher - AAA

3 - Jake Fox - HS Hitter = AA

4 - Ryan Webb - Collete Pitcher - AAA

5 - Tanner Bibee - College Pitcher - Majors

2022

1 (18) - Chase DeLauter - College Power Hitter - Majors

CBA - Justin Campbell -  College Pitchers - AAA

2 - Parker Messick - College Pitcher - Majors

3 - Joe Lampe - College Slap Hitter - AA

4 - Nate Furman - College Slap Hitter - AA

5 - Guy Lipscomb - College Slap Hitter = AA

2023

1 (23) - Ralph Velazquez HS Hitter - AAA

2 - Alex Clemmey  HS Pitcher - High A

CBB - Andrew Walters College Pitcher - AAA (ML cup of coffee)

3 - CJ Kayfus - College slap hitter - AAA (ML cup of coffee)

4 - Cooper Ingle - College slap hitter - AAA (ML cup of coffee)

5 - Christian Knapczyk - College slap hitter - AA

2024

1 (1) - Travis Bazzana - College Power Hitter - Majors

CBA - Braylon Doughty - HS Pitcher - A+ (AA cup of coffee)

2 - Jacob Cozart - College Hitter - AA

3 - Joey Oakie - HS Pitcher - Low A

4 - Rafe Schlesinger - College Pitcher - High A

5 - Aiden Minor - College Pitcher - Low A

2025

1 (20) - Jace Laviolette - College power hitter - High A

2 - Dean Curley = College Hitter - High A

CBB - Aaron Walton - College Hitter - High A

CBB - Will Hynes - HS Pitcher - Rookie

3 - Nolan Schubart - College Power Hitter - High A

4 - Luke Hill - College Hitter - AA

5 - Riley Nelson - College Hitter - Low A

SUMMARY

Here are the demographics for these 6 drafts, with my interpretation of their success which will obviously be based on less data in 2025 than in 2020

1. The Guardians, except for 2024, have normally drafted in the high teens, low 20s, in each round, 

2. The Guardians have had the following success with each demographic above:

    a. College Pitchers - 13 drafted, 6 'successes' (Allen, Williams, Bibee, Walters, Messick and, yes, Campbell), 3 possibles

    b. HS Hitters - 4 drafted, 1 success (Velazquez), 2 possibles (Halpin, Tolentino)

    c. College slap hitters - 7 drafted, 2 successes (Kayfus, Ingle)

    d. College power/overall hitters - 8 drafted (5 in 2025), 2 successes (DeLauter, Bazzana), 6 possibles

    e. HS Pitchers = 4 drafted, 1 trending toward success (Doughty), 2 question marks

Looking back in these 6 drafts the Guardians have had pretty good, albeit not perfect success drafting college pitchers. They have also had decent MINOR LEAGUE success drafting HS pitchers early, but this is a very tough demographic in terms of % chance of success. They have drafted 4 HS hitters and only Velazquez looks to have a decent chance of ML success. Just like HS pitchers, HS hitters are a tough demographic, even more risky than HS pitchers.  Finally, they are pretty bad at drafting college contact hitters with only Ingle and, to a lesser extent, Kayfus, having a chance to be any more than organizational players.

CONCLUSIONS

For me, the conclusion is simple.  While they have drafted some successes in each of these categories, they have had the most success drafting college pitchers.  Aside from anecdotal success, they have been unsuccessful drafting college or HS hitters after the first round. Finally, HS pitchers take so long to develop it is impossible to look at their recently drafted HS pitchers and see which ones will eventually make the majors, let alone have ML success. The point here is that if the Guardians are saying we should draft HS power hitters because we drafted Velazquez and look at how that owrked, it would really be troubline to me because I view Ralphy as more of an outlier, good for our farm system but bad to build a future draft strategy around.

I am also not into looking at what the strength of the draft is and leaning into that.  While that sounds good on paper, in reality that just would get you a great prospect at a position where you are stacked.  For example, I love Daniel Jackson of Georgia Tech but I would not think of drafting yet another catcher in an organization deep with catching when I could get similar quality of players at positions of need.

Looking at the minors, the Guardians have a good pipeline of hitters but have very few pitching prospects.  Given the window for this team, the only thing that makes sense for me is drafting college pitchers early with one HS flyer pitcher and, if the opportunity arises, drafting one power bat, but not in the first round.

I know I have been harping on this all winter but the Guardians are good at drafting and developng college pitchers. They also have a need for pitchers who will get to the majors quickly and that, again, is college pitchers.  While the 2026 draft is not strong in college pitching there ARE quality college pitchers out there and I think the above data shows that we should be drafting mostly college pitchers in the 2026 draft. Going away from that demographic could lead to slow developing prospects who will not be ready in this window or who, due to their demographics, have a huge chance of failure.  Yes, grabbing for the brass ring is nice, but for an organization like Cleveland that counts on their prospects, it is generally better to not draft high risk players.

2026 Draft - Part 5 - Latest Update and Guardians' Mock Draft

 We are a week away from the draft and people are wondering who their team might take and running through their mock drafts.  

There's a great new tool out there that has AI generate an overall mock draft where you can input just the players you want  your team to take. It also eliminates options as it goes along as it keeps track of your bonus pool and doesn't allow you to draft players you can't afford.

A couple of thoughts after using this tool:

1. It shows you there is no right or wrong pick.  As the tool has eliminated the human component, there is no butterfly effect.  

2. In addition, if you were debating between two guys, it is likely that the guy you didn't select will be gone with a couple of picks if you don't select him.

That being said, it allows you to see how a strategy can unfold based on what you are trying to do.

For me, this draft is all about college pitching in the first 10 rounds and only one HS flyer in the first 10  rounds as the quality college pitchers are going to be gone in the time between our first and 2nd pick.  Which is yet another reason why not having the Comp A pick really hurts.  FYI, the AI's mock draft always had Taylor Rabe of Ole Miss being selected at or a little after the 29th pick that we traded to SF along with Wilkinson to get Bailey.

#1

So, here is how my mock draft went:

#19 - As I said I would, I went with Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas Razorbacks.  There was really no other choice for me unless he was taken, in which case I would take Taylor Rabe, RHP, Ole Miss.  But in this mock Dietez was there.

#59 - In the 2nd round I overdrafted Maxx Yehl, LHP, West Virginia.  I was looking for another college SP and Yehl was, for me, the best available at that time. This will be a very controversial pick for many people and may diminish the credibility of this mock draft but, to me, it makes sense.

#95 - Sticking with solid college SP in round 3, I selected Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston State - He is a classic command and control guy who can touch 96 now with more in the tank.

NOTE: My 2nd and 3rd round picks might need to be flipped as not every ranking site has them in the order I rated them.

#123 - Unfortunately, we don't have much excess money to spend due to the trade of our Comp A pick for Bailey, so I had to limit my overslot spending to one pick: Kaeden Waechter, RHP, HS in Florida.  His father is Doug Waechter, a former ML pitcher.  As a 4th round pick, with the slot and my savings from the other picks in the first 10 rounds, I should have enough money for Waechter who will give me a good entry level pitching prospect to follow Gomez, Doughty, Humphries and Oakie.

#155 - Getting back to college pitching, in the 5th round I really love Josh McDevitt, RHP, Missouri here.  

#184 - In the 6th round I am selecting Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA here.  Randall has a huge fastball and little else, making him the classic reliever in waiting.

213 - in the 7th round I am ticking with the big fastball, I am going with Cam Johnson, RHP, Oklahoma here.  Like Randall, Johnson needs to work on his fastball control but, for the first half of the season, was Oklahoma's Friday night SP, although he didn't pitch in the NCAA playoffs at all.

243 - I have limited funds left to spend so in the 8th round I went with Zane Adams, LHP - Alabama - Another college SP, I see a LH Trenton Denholm or Aaron Davenport in him.

273 -In the 9th round I am going with another cost-friendly college pitcher, Bryson Moore RHP - Florida St.

303 - In the 10th round I went with senior reliever J. P. Robertso RHP - Ole Miss

So, this is where the Over-Slot app cuts off.  As you can see, I picked nothing but college pitchers except for Waechter.  HS hitters are too big of a risk and HS pitchers are, too, and we already have a good number of the latter in our minor league system.  The college hitters all, to me, looked like more of the same of what we have already and, literally, not one college hitter excited me enough to draft them, when I considered what we already have in our system.

I will have more thoughts about the last 10 rounds later this week but to start off, here is who my 11th round pick would be, assuming he is still available. As a senior sign, he might be gone a lot earlier as my 11th round mock pick last year, went in the 6th round.  BTW, Smith is hitting for big power and has already climbed 3 levels up to AA in his first full season in professional baseball.

I literally only have $200 K in excess at this point but that doesn't count the $469 K I get if I go 4.99% over my bonus pool.  So, maybe $650 K to spend on a HS pitcher flyer or two if they pop up in the last 10 rounds. But, to tease the last 10 rounds, here is my 11th round pick, if he is still there.

333 - Judd Utemark - UTIL - Ole Miss - Have loved this guy for 2 years.  HR power and multiple position utility guy, including even a little catching.  Reminds me somewhat of David Fry. As a senior sign, I really hope he is there in the 11th and if he is, I pop him no matter who else is there.

#59

Cade Townsend RHP, Ole Miss - An incredible long shot to last this long, Townsend was passed over in the playoffs in favor of Hunter Elliot and Rabe.  While most people think he will be gone long before this spot, it is not out of the question that he falls this far as his lack of pitching in the NCAAs could snowball.  With the combines and the draft league I doubt it but a drop in velocity or command in those events lets me dream that he is still there at #59.

Joey Volchko, RHP - North Carolina - Two things lobby against Volchko still being available at  #59: His fastball and his dominant, complete game start in the college WS.  Still, his overall body of work is really dicey, even for a 2nd round pick.  His start in the WS was the perfect example as his FB was moving all over the place and catching corners and missing bats.  But a good scout could probably see professional hitters would probably spit on the pitches he was getting college WS batters out with. 

Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston St. - Peterson is a classic Cleveland pitcher and if they can tone down the urge to go all brass ring on this pick, Peterson will be a solid pick.  Think Austin Peterson X2 in terms of potential with a good floor. 

 

Horse Trading Part 3 - MLB Makes Proposal On Amateur Drafts

 Baseball America did a detailed article on the MLB's latest proposal that covered amateur drats.  Here are my comments:

1. Rule 5 Draft -MLB's proposal does not eliminate the Rule 5 draft and, in fact, accentuates it.  The MLB proposal would allow for domestic players to be R5-eligible after 2 seasons with teams being able to 'buy' a 3rd season of protection for $30,000. 

My thoughts: I have published several posts on this site with data that shows that the Rule 5 ML draft does not work.  While MLB's latest proposal would change the dynamic to the R5 draft based on eligible players it is still not workable and, IMO, the ML R5 draft should be eliminated. The goal of eliminating the Rule 5 draft would be to give teams LONGER periods of control for their players to develop and to reduce the money and effort spent on determining which players to roster and which to draft in the R5. 

2. MLB Draft Changes - MLB proposes dropping the draft to 12 rounds, cutting the bonus pool in half, not allowing players to be drafted until they turn 20 (no HS players or JUCO freshmen), limiting the bonuses for NDFA to $10,000, draft choices are freely tradeable with some limitations, no competitive balance picks.

My thoughts: 

No drafting of HS/young JUCO draftees - I am on board with that.  The demographics show that the most high risk is in drafting HS players, especially RH pitchers and catchers. While some guys do make it big being drafted out of HS, a lot fail.   

However, this system will only work if foreign leagues support this and refuse to sign US kids who are not draft-eligible. The system must also allow for matriculation from college to pro ball at a faster rate so that kids pushed to college find playing time at colleges that will develop them and get them ready for pro ball at a young age.  This cannot be like HS where seniors and juniors play and freshmen and sophomores sit (or play JV, which doesn't currently exist in college) and wait their turn.  For example, IMO there are still too many Friday night SP in college baseball who are seniors because they give the team the best chance to win and winning is a main goal for a college coach.  While that may impact winning for those schools it adversely impacts kids with a lot of talent but no experience.  Additionally, if the influx of players to college is not handled correctly, the already out-of-control transfer portal will get crazier as kids find that they can't get playing time early and so transfer to a place that 'guarantees' them playing time..

Dropping the draft to 12 rounds: I am totally against that.  The pool of draft-worthy players will, in theory, be the same every year even if HS/JUCO kids are not eligible. Those kids will simply be in college at their draft age,  MLB has already dropped the draft from 40 to 20 rounds.  Dropping it further favors cheap teams not having to spend money on amateur player acquisition AND make it harder for draft-worthy players to get playing time in their freshman and sophomore years in college. I am not in favor of any rule that allows cheap teams to cheap out on amateur player acquisition. 

Cutting the bonus pools in half: Again, totally against this.  In fact, I want the bonus pools enhanced for the resource-limited teams.  Make them spend more on amateur player acquistion.

Elimination of Competitive Balance Draft Picks - I am totally against this.  Resource-liimited teams should get more draft picks, period.  As I have said repeatedly, any change that allows resourc-limited teams to avoid spending money on amateur player acquisition is bad for baseball. There is a substantial difference between revenue sharing, which can be accomplished with better local media revenue sharing and a salary floor and competitive balance. The latter requires carrot-and-stick rules for small market teams.  That is, give them extra bonus pool money but make them spend it.

Somewhat Free Trading of Draft Picks - I am TOTALLY against this. Trading a 1st round draft pick could save a team MILLIONS of dollars.  Being a Cleveland guy I remember Ted Stepien for the Cavaliers and the DeShaun Watson/Browns trade.  These trades hamstrung their teams for years.  Rules should NOT be made that allows this kind of shooting in the foot.  Just the opposite, actually.  I am against any rule that keeps cheap teams from spending on amateur player acquisition. My rule is to not allow draft picks from being traded before the 11th round and then they can only be for the current draft cycle and only be traded by large market teams.  I don't want teams to be able to mortgage the future for a brass ring push in a year.  

Limiting NDFA bonuses to $10,000 - Again, this, like cutting the draft to 12 rounds, is just a mechanism for teams to save money on player acquisition while driving kids back to college.  Kids need to matriculate to pro baseball from college to give younger college players the opportunity to play.

Hard Draft Slots - I am against this.  Teams should be allowed to decide how to spend their money.  Nowhere in this proposal does it address a college player simply saying that they don't want to be drafted in a particular year.  This would be heightened if hard draft slots were adhered to.  I think this spending flexibility is one of the beautiful things of the draft.  Some teams might like to spread their money around.  Hard slotting eliminates creativity in amateur player acquistion.  However, there does need to be rules saying a team MUST spend between 95% and 105% of their draft pool budget. 

3. International Draft - Players can only be drafted when they reach 18, bonus pool the same for international and domestic drafts. Skip the 2027 January 15th signing period.

My thoughts - I am on board with these proposals.  That being said, this proposal has still not eliminated the difference in age between domestic and international signees that currently exists.  This draft would clearly have to include elimination of the R5 draft so these kids could develop.  My other thought on this is that there are huge advantages to getting kids in younger. All teams right now get these kids to finish their HS education.  MLB would have to invest in academies for kids to continue to develop and get life skills until they can be drafted.  That obviously exists in the US but one of the beauties of signing these kids at 16 and them having them play in the DSL is that you get them in a structured environment early.  MLB would have to figure how to do that.

SUMMARY 

Many of these changes could be good for baseball.  However, a salary floor and salary cap should be tied to changes in revenue sharing.  Changes to amateur player acquisition should NOT.  Even in a cap situation the best players would leverage their talent to get to a large market where their earning power outside the game would be maximized.  Talent will NEVER be split evenly in a cap/floor environment.  Also we need to provide small market teams a pathway that allows them to reach the salary floor by signing their only prospects like the Athletics did and other teams are now starting to do.  This comes from enhanced amateur player opportunities for small market teams that are mandated to be followed both in keeping and using draft picks and spending appropriately instead of just not using money on these drafts. The new CBA should not just make fringe players and AAAA players richer as teams try to get to the floor.  Finally, in no way should ANY of these changes impact the gains that were made in the historic MiLB CBA.  Those benefits should be protected. so guys can chase their dreams to their natural conclusion without giving up because they can't afford to continue.

Anyone For Some Horse Trading? Part 2 - Let's Trade the Right Horses - Initial MLBPA and MLB New CBA Proposals

I started to write this months ago. but, after thinking about it and looking back at how the previous CBA unfolded, I decided to wait until the MLBPA made their initial proposal to the owners.  Surprisingly, IMO, it was not as shock-and-awe as I had expected it to be, instead nibbling at the edges.  The publicly released part of the MLB proposal was shock and awe as it really only addressed a cap/floor system with initial dollar figures

Note that many of the topics below were not publicly disclosed in MLB's counterproposal.

Let's dive in and see where the two sides are and where I think this should go.  Again, only one guy's opinion.

1. Minimum salary -

MLBPA - $1.65 MM minimum, scaling up to $2.2 MM at the end of the CBA.

MLB - Not mentioned but MLB is rumored to be against such a hike in rookie salaries

My Thoughts - fits right in line with what my goal of a $2 MM minimum salary I proposed.  Owners are going to have to see that a salary floor is coming and the smart ones will see that it is better to give this money to their own players than be forced to give it to mediocre FAs who won't impact the course of a season. As I said before, 26 players at $2 MM gives you a base total salary of almost 1/2 of the $120 MM floor they will likely settle on.

2. Pre-arbitration pool - 

MLBBPA - Raise from current $50 MM to $180 MM. 

MLB - Not mentioned

My Thoughts - Currently, each of the 30 ML teams contribute $1.67 MM to the pool. The new pool would cost each team $6 MM, which disproportionately taxes the 'poorest' teams.   If the owners are to agree to this increase it is going to have to be tied to something in lieu of a salary cap (see #7 below).  For example, the bottom 10 markets would still contribute $2 MM/team, the middle 10 markets would contribute $6 MM each and the largest 10 markets would each be left to contribute $10 million.  I am not saying the $180 MM will end up being the number but whatever the number is, the split should hit the wealthiest teams the hardest.

3. Super 2 Players - 

MLBPA - Increase from 22% to 44%. 

MLB - Not mentioned

My thoughts -  I think this IS a shock-and-awe request designed to get them concessions elsewhere.  I would think an increase to $25% with a increase of 1% per year of the next CBA would be a good compromise without meaning that the owners have to give up something else somewhere.  Frankly, I think that arbitration should be dropped to after 2 years of service time.  This eliminates the Super 2 issue while it still doesn't address the player control issues that led to Super 2, PPI and other rules.  I think that this would be less of a hard pill to swallow if teams had access to more revenue and were forced to spend it.

4. Minimum Arbitration salary 

MLBPA: 3 MM

MLB - Not mentioned

My Thoughts -  I think this, in combination with the ca. $2 MM minimum salary is good and the owners can complain about it to gain some good PR but they will see that paying a rookie $2 MM is better than paying a mediocre arbitration-eligible player $3+ MM.  I see this nicely fitting into current organizational thinking of when they pull the plug on arbitration-eligible

 players. I also see those players being stuck getting minor league deals which is not helpful to those players playing in the majors unless there is an increase in salary year over year due to service time.

5. Service time for ML free agency - 

MLBPA - No change for younger players . 5 years service time for players over 30 to become FAs

MLB - Not mentioned but I have to guess this would be a no for teams.  They develop players and want to hold onto those players for the longest time possible before potentially losing them to free agency.  Still, teams that understand the 'churn' of expensive players leaving for greener pastures, might want to horsetrade this for other concessions.

My Thoughts - The players propose 5 years for players over 30 years old.  I see the owners doing some horsetrading here by giving in to this but asking for two things in return: elimination of the ML Rule 5 draft and change in the minor league free agency to 7 years for players signed before their 18th birthday.  Latin amateur FAs take so long to develop that exposing them minor league free agency or the Rule 5 draft is just foolish.  These two horse trades are something that owners of small market teams would likely favor, anyway.

6. Competitive Balance Tax and Other Penalties

MLBPA:  Raise Competitive Balance Threshold from $244 MM to $300 MM, raising in subsequent seasons.  Remove all penalties for exceeding tax

MLB - Not mentioned but from their low salary cap proposal, MLB probably considers this irrelevant.

My Thoughts - Assuming no salary cap, my philosophy to improve competitive balance is to make teams choose.  If they choose to buy FAs (high team salary), they should be penalized more heavily than they are now.

7. Revenue Sharing

MLBPA - More sharing of broadcast rights, less stadium revenue sharing, Lower revenue teams receive at least $240 MM in revenue sharing annually but they must spend that money or suffer penalties. Low revenue teams would receive bonuses if they make the playoffs or have a winning record.

MLB - Not addressed

My thoughts - I align with the MLBPA here.  More revenue sharing, penalties if not spending that money, bonuses for successful franchises. I would like part of that money going to the draft, giving those low revenue teams even larger bonus pool, and money they HAVE to spend or be penalized.

8. Salary Cap

MLBPA - Does not want

MLB - $245 MM

My Thoughts - This is where the rubber meets the road in these negotiations.  Owners can play hardball here but everyone should warn them that it will be THEIR fault if this results in a work stoppage.  There are plenty of ways to improve competitive balance without a cap.  In fact, having a cap actually will hurt competitive balance as big market teams will just funnel money to player development and scouting. See #6 above for ways to help compettive balance.

9. Salary Floor

MLBPA - $150 MM - Penalties for teams spending under that (reverse competitive balance tax). 

MLB - $171 MM (includes player benefits meaning it is lower). Likely to be closer to $150 MM in salaries.

My Thoughts - MLBPA's plan is similar to my plan.  Remembering that 100% of owners need to approve the new CBA and only 50+% of players need to approve, the lower the salary floor, the better to get 100% of owners to approve.  Note that this floor needs to be tied to increased revenue sharing, particularly from local revenues (TV and merchandise).  It is still not clear how the MLBPA is addressing that their plan guarantees teams $240 MM in revenue sharing but only requires them to pay $150 MM in salaries.  As I have said, part of that revenue should be forced into draft bonus pools (domestic and international (see below) with the smaller market teams getting more money to spend, and have to spend, to sign amatuer players.

10. International Draft

MLBPA - Not mentioned

MLB - Not mentioned

My Thoughts - This is a must for me.  A large part of competitive balance has to include all amateur players being subject to a draft.

11. Rule 5 Draft

MLBPA - Not mentioned

MLB - Not mentioned

My Thoughts - The ML portion HAS to be eliminated.  I have published a number of evidence-based articles on this and the current R5 does not work.  As a good part of competitive balance has to be in amateur player acquistion and development, the R5 is counterproductive.