2024 Draft - Part 22 - Mock Draft 2.0 -

OK, we are less than a week from the beginning of the 2024 draft.  Here is my latest (and hopefully final) mock draft as any mock draft I do after this would be because of something really unforeseen and likely unfortunate thing happening.  So, let's go.

1-1 - Travis Bazzana - 2B - Oregon St. - Bazzana still best fits the Guardians' type of hitter. There is no reason and nothing I have heard that has swayed me off of him.  I see this pick coming in about $1.2 million below slot.

1-36 (Supplemental A) - Luke Holman - RHP - LSU -As you can tell I have moved off of Mike Sirota (RHH OFer, Northeastern) at this pick.  Holman is the type of pitcher who I think will do well in the CGFS4CP (Cleveland Guardians Finishing School For College Pitchers, previously known as "The Factory").  I think the recent success of Nikhazy, Mace, Davenport and Denholm shows me this program is alive and doing well. And, you can never have enough pitching.  I see this pick coming in slightly below slot.

2-48 - Bryce Cunningham, RHP - Vanderbilt - I like Cunningham because I think he will do well with the help of the CGFS4CP and is a relatively safe pick and should come in a little below slot.

3-84 - HS Pitcher Way Over Slot Pick - In 2023 Washington pick Travis Sykora, a HS RHP at #71 (#40 ranked prospect) and signed him for $2.6 million ($1.6 million over slot).  In 2022 the Rangers signed Brock Porter at #109 (#11 prospect) for $3.7 million (#2.14 million over slot).  In 2021 the Pirates signed Bubba Chandler at #72 (#21 prospect) for $3 million ($2.13 million over slot).  This seems like where the Guardians would make their huge over slot investment.  

4-113 - Matt Ager - RHP - UC Santa Barbara - Earlier in the year I thought that Ager might sneak into the top 2 rounds but the way he was used this year, in my opinion, caused his stuff to play down. I think we use this pick to make up a little money as I think he comes in under slot.  I don't think he will, but if somehow Mike Sirota OF Northeastern slips to here, I take him before I take Ager.

5-146 -Bridger Holmes - RHP - Oregon State - It is tough for teams to draft a reliever.  Hey, starter with reliever risk is easy.  But reliever?  So I hope Holmes will be available here.  Note that I have moved him up from 175 to 146 because I like him a lot, although I wouldn't be unhappy with Nick Brink RHP Portland here.

6-175 - Draft-Eligible Sophomore - Last year the Guardians picked Alex Mooney, a draft-eligible sophomore in the 7th round.  Given the success that Mooney has had this year, I think they go back to that well again this year.  I can't begin to say who will drop to this point in the draft but I do think that the Guardians will be targeting a sophomore who is a position player and maybe an OFer or corner infielder.  Some names that come to mind are Khadim Diaw, C/OF, Loyola Marymount,  Jared Thomas, 1B/OF Texas, Austin Overn OF, USC, Anthony Silva, 3B, TCU, Zach Stewart, OF, Missouri State.  Hard to tell if any of these guys will drop this far or whether even more highly rated prospects will drop due to their leverage as sophomores but, for what it's worth, Diaw and Overn are crushing it in the Cape this summer and Diaw hits RH and, obviously, has come catching background (Cough! David Fry.  Cough!).

7-205 - Owen Boerema - RHP - Kansas State - A senior sign, Boerema was a solid pitcher for K-State, logging 98 innings this spring, He would hit the ground running if he was available here and would be a very cheap sign.

8-235 - Nate Knowles - RHP - William & Mary - I have upgraded him from round 12 in my previous mock draft.  He will likely be a slot to slightly above slot signing.

9-265 - John Bay - OF - Austin Peay - Bay is hitting with power in the Cape this summer so he might be gone here but I like this guy and he is really my only other power hitter (after Bazzana) in this draft and he is a RHH outfielder who should come in somewhere around slot

10-295 - Pierce Coppola - LHP - Florida - Well, after his CWS start, he might not be available here but scouts have gotten only sporadic looks at him so maybe he lasts this long.  One thing for sure: that one CWS start for Florida will be worth $150,000+ for him as he will likely cost $250,000 to sign.

Round 11 - Matt Koch - RHP - Creighton (in transfer portal) - Koch turns 21 on June 29th, making him both a draft-eligible sophomore and a transfer portal guy.   With a fastball up to 96 and other good analytics, he looks good (60 Ks in 38.1 innings in 2024).  Normally 11th round picks, being the first picks on day 3, after the dust settles on a frantic day 2, are places where teams can pick up gems.  In the 11th and 12 rounds of previous drafts we have picked up guys like Adam Plutko, Zach Plesac and, recently, Magnus Ellerts (2022), Hunter Stanley (2021) and Nick Mikolajchak (2019), all college pitchers.  Obviously Koch will cost us over slot but not so much that we won't have it left in our war chest from savings on picks in the first 10 rounds. 

Round 12 - Micah McDowell - OF - Oregon State - Literally no one must like this guy the way I do.  But I see him as a solid senior signing and I don't necessarily see any of my other day 3 picks being impacted by using a relatively early day 3 slot to pick McDowell.  I mean, look at the stats: .403/.505/.667/1.167.  He has stolen less bases this year but he plays CF and stole 15 last year and 25 the year before in summer ball in only 35 games! As was said about Holmes, the Guardians scouting Bazzana would have gotten plenty of looks at McDowell as, except for a period where he was injured, he hit 2nd in the OSU order, right behind Bazzana.  If we can get him here I say why not?  

Round 13 - Draft Eligible College Sophomore - This is a placeholder for a player in this category.  It will be an overslot signing, maybe up to $300,000.  I think this player will ALSO be a position player although he could play anywhere on the field with catcher being a potential surprise position if they find the appropriate one available to them at this point.

Round 14 - Colby Holcombe - RHP - Mississippi State - Another guy, like Coppola with good size and bad stats, Holcombe is a perfect fit for the Guardians.  I think it will cost them a little more money to pry him away from college (probably $200,000) just to show him we are serious and convince him that he is not likely, based on his track record, to do any better if he goes back to college for another year.

Round 15 HS P Flyer #2 - I put a name to this spot in my last mock but let's leave this one open...and just remember the guy I suggested before, in case it actually happens I can puff out my chest about it.  See him as a $300,000 signing.

Round 16 - Injured college pitcher #1 - There are a number of these guys out there but I don't want to single one out.

Round 17 - HS Pitcher Flyer #3 - Like Zinn from last year, probably closer to $150,000 than $300,000, but still overslot.

Round 18 - Injured college P #2 - Again, don't want to put a name on this one but they are out there.  This is just a placeholder for someone.

Round 19 - Injured college pitcher #3 - Matt Willadsen - RHP - NC State - Willadsen would have been a senior but was injured this winter and missed the entire season.  He would be a cheap sign and I like what I read about him.

Round 20 - JUCO Draft-and-follow - This is a placeholder for someone we will draft who is going to a junior college in the 2024/2025 school year who we can sign up until the date of the 2025 draft for as much as $225,000 without it counting against our 2024 draft budget.  Normal ceiling for a bonus that doesn't count against your budget is $150,000.

2024 Draft - Part 21 -It's July 7th and The Cleveland Guardians Are Exactly One Week From Being On The Clock

 OK, the Guardians are not only in the home stretch of the marathon that is draft preparation, they are in the last 100 yards!

So, what are my thoughts for the evening of July 7th?

• The Pirates top selection last year, Paul Skenes, was either the top or 2nd best prospect in the draft in 2023 and the Pirates selected him at 1-1, giving him the top bonus in draft history. Now he's an MLB All-Star.
• In 2021 the Pirates selected the 5th best prospect in the draft, Henry Davis, to save money for later picks(s).  Henry Davis has a sub-Mendoza ML BA and is looking more and more like a failure.  
• Matt Underwood, on the TV broadcast today, came off as an advance apologist for the FO by pointing to a draft 10 years ago with VERY misleading stats.  He said the top two guys from that draft never even made the majors but suspiciously failed to point out that the top guy, Brady Aiken, didn't sign because an injury was discovered after he was drafted.  He also didn't mention that the Guardians shocked the world a year later and wasted their #1 pick (and millions of dollars) in a gamble that Aiken was better, and healthier, than he had appeared the previous year.  Picking an injured player that they hoped was a steal, they were wrong.   A conspiracy theorist could say that this is all just part of the setup for when the Guardians make a stupid selection at 1-1 in an attempt to save money and for their scouting director to show that he is the smartest guy in the room.   That same conspiracy theory could apply to Jensen Lewis pimping JJ Wetherholt as the Guardians' #1 pick and how exciting a player he is.
• Talking about Aiken, the Guardians also used their #1 pick in 2022 on an injured player, Chase DeLauter and, guess what, he is still injured.  Hey, he's a good prospect but he has been injured most of his career.  Even at that, he was only the 16th overall pick who was projected before the 2022 to be a top-5 selection.  So, in essence, they got him as a bargain.  Nonetheless that bargain came with risk that is now playing out.  
• Nothing has changed for me.  Bazzana is the top selection and, frankly, anyone besides Bazzana is just the Guardians' scouting director thinking he is going to outsmart all the other scouting directors, trying to make himself look like the smartest scouting director in baseball.  That is a recipe for disaster for a club that has NEVER had the 1-1.
• No one has provided a pathway where there are player(s) who are guaranteed to be there who we would target savings   It's never just as simple as spreading the money around as you really have no idea who will be available later and whether they will be worth the money you have to spread around...or whether they will even sign for the money they agreed to sign for.  Alex Mooney from last year is the perfect example.  The Guardians had what they thought was a deal with Mooney but after the draft he changed the amount he wanted, asking for $1 millon.  That caused the Guardians to not have the money to sign Marohn and/or Heuer.  Even the Pirates, in 2021, used the savings on Bubba Chandler, meaning that they picked someone who is now just the 63rd best prospect in baseball and it cost them $3 million (basically that year, mid-first round money).  In contrast, the #1 prospect in 2021 was Marcelo Mayer, who is now the #10 prospect in baseball.  So, was Henry Davis and Bubba Chandler worth more than Marcelo Mayer?  At best this looks like an even swap meaning that taking the expected pick, Mayer, was the best way to go as you would have at least had one top prospect.
• Hey, Bazzana is not Paul Skenes.  Anyone who knows the draft knows that this is a weak draft.  Still, the only way for me that Bazzana should not be the Guardians' #1 pick is if:
• Bazanna has a serious hand/wrist injury from when he was hurt earlier this year that probably will require surgery (e.g., some bone graft procedure) and an extensive healing process resulting in an uncertain outcome.  Note that this IS a real possibility as his post-injury stats were really pathetic this year and his post-season performance was terrible.
• Charlie Condon is a cheater.   You can't deny the stats but there are question marks.  Like his BB/K rate is 57/41 (in 304 PA) but, if you remove the 28 intentional walks and the 4-pitch 'unintentional' intentional walks, his actual BB/K rate is 25/39.  If his power numbers are artificially inflated, with his adjusted mediocre walk rate, he is a candidate for mediocrity as a ML player, although he STILL will be a ML regular.

So, there it is.  The more 'spin' I hear from the media, the more I think we are in trouble as a team for this draft.   People will tell you that you can't judge a draft right after it and have to wait years.  I disagree but I do agree on one thing.  By the time, a few years down the road, when you get absolute confirmation you screwed up a draft, it has done irreparable harm to a small market club like Cleveland.

I repeat: Paul Skenes is an all-star.  Henry Davis is a likely bust.  Don't make the Pirates 2021 mistake as I doubt, unlike the Pirates, we get to do it right by having the 1-1 again two years later.

The 1-1 was a gift the Guardians, as a franchise, didn't deserve, based on their record.  Don't waste it trying to show that your scouting director and department is smarter than the rest of baseball.  Do the right thing.  You have enough position player talent in the minors right now.  what you DON'T have is that Jose Ramirez impact talent and that, if everything else is OK, is Bazzana.

Pick Bazzana!  Anyone else, at this point, unless there are some serious problems with Bazzana, would be trying to be cute.  Don't try to be cute.  You're not smarter than the rest of the Scouting Directors in baseball.  Pick Bazzana and make smart picks after him.  Cleveland needs this for a healthy future that doesn't require expensive free agent signings...something that is not likely to happen here.

How To Keep This Rolling - Part 3 - No, Really, We NEED To Make Trades

Many Guardians' fans are currently thinking 2 things about our team:

• We need 1-2 starting pitchers and an impact bat, preferably a RFer or CFer, before the deadline.
• We need to trade some of our prospect depth at AA and AAA to fill those needs.

The problem with that is two-fold:

• With all the injured pitchers in MLB and all the teams STILL in contention 25 teams within 5.5 games of a Wildcard or Division Championship berth), the competition for sarting pitching will be fierce at the deadline.
• Competition for ANY player at the deadline will be fierce
• It sounds like the Yankees, Orioles, Phillies and Dodgers, the four teams with the best chance to make the WS this year, will be active players at the deadline so any deadline improvement teams like the Guardians make at the deadline will likely be offset when some or all of those 4 teams make a bigger splash.

It is obvious that the Guardians have an excess of prospects, a lot of it being ML-ready or close to it.  But what is NOT so obvious is that, given the performance of those prospects this year, they will likely HAVE to make some deals by the November roster freeze or almost surely lose a good number of players in the Rule 5.

Yeah, yeah, I know. People like me warn about losing players in the Rule 5 every year and it (almost) never happens.  But I am telling your, it is REALLY going to happen this winter unless the Guardians do something.  Let's take a look at the numbers (with minor league options still available entering 2025) who will likely occupy space on the 40-man roster:

Pitchers (17): Allen, Bibee, Cantillo, Clase, Curry, Espino, Gaddis, Hentges, Herrin, Karinchak, Lively McKenzie, Morgan, Sandlin, Smith, Stephan, Williams

Catchers(2): Bo Naylor, Fry

Infielders (10): Arias, Brito, Gimenez, Manzardo, Angel Martinez, Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Rocchio, Schneeman, Tena

Outfielders (6): Brennan, Freeman, Kwan, Noel, JRod, Valera

Yeah, you can debate about Karinchak, McKenzie, Allen, Arias and even Rocchio, but I don't honestly believe that the Guardians would non-tender or DFA any of these guys as they all have significant upside both in trades and in future development.  

So there you have it.  Right now, IMO, the Guardians are looking at 35 rock solid spots on the 40-man roster.  So we have 6 spots left to add this off-season IF we don't sign any free agents.  Let's look at who might fill those spots:

Returning players (2): Bieber, Avila

Players eligible for the Rule 5 draft not currently on the 40-man (ones in bold are top 40 prospects (my ranking) in the Guardians' organization):  

Pitchers (13): Doug Nikhazy (AAA), Will Dion (AAA), Franco Aleman (AAA), Nick Mikolajchak (AAA), Andrew Misiaszek (AAA), Ryan Webb (AA), Tommy Mace (AA), Aaron Davenport (AA), Lenny Torres Jr. (AA), Trenton Denholm (A+), Ethan Hankins (AA), Alonzo Richardson (A), Yorman Gomez (A)

Infielders (5): Dayan Frias (AA), Milan Tolentino (AA), Maick Collado (AA), Jose Devers (A+), Juan Benjamin (A+), 

Outfielders (4): Petey Halpin (AA), Alexfri Planez (AA), Wuilfredo Antunez (A), Esteban Gonzalez (A), 

So, without even dipping into the guys who might be flyers as Rule 5 picks (Halpin, Frias, Mikolajchak, Misiaszek, Planez), we are talking about about 1/4 of our top 40 prospects, with 7 being pitchers in AA or AAA, who are very easily projectable to make the Guardians' ML roster sometime in 2025.  

Those 7 pitching prospects, along with our glut of ML middle infielders, represent the real problem here.  All the other guys on the non-40-man roster list above are typical Rule 5-eligible guys.  That is, guys who are selectable but have little chance to stick on a ML roster in 2025.  Some small chance but very little.

But those 7 pitchers, added to maybe Bieber and Avila, represent 9 guys battling for 5 40-man roster spots.  So maybe FOUR guys will be lost for nothing, either to free agency or to the Rule 5.   That's not acceptable for a small market club.

And that's if we don't make any trades or acquisitions.  They also represent guys who might be good enough to keep us from wasting resources in trades if they can fill SP roles next year.

So, between the middle infielder excess who we can't find playing time for, and SP prospects who we can't protect AND maybe a couple of outfielder prospects, we need to make a trade...or two...or three.

Fans may think we need to make those trades to make us more competitive this year.   But what we need to make trades for is to clear some roster space AND make us more competitive this year AND in the future.  The question is, will the market allow us to do that and will our FO be savvy enough to make that happen?

Let's hope they can.

July 2, 2024 - Thoughts For A Tuesday Morning

1. Draft 2024 - What did he mean by that?  Should I be worried?

Chris Antonnetti said in an interview yesterday that he doesn't expect to know who the Guardians will select #1 in this year's draft until right before the draft.  This is a little scary to me because it MIGHT insinuate a couple of things:

• That their #1 pick is going to be a fluid situation, meaning there will be plenty of room for their scouting director to try to show the world that he is the smartest draft director in baseball.
• That they likely are trying to get deals in place with over-slot bonus players in later rounds which brings up two red flags: (1) will those guys still be there when the Guardians want to draft them and (2) if they are still there will they really be worth the money or will this just be another example of this draft director trying to show everyone how smart he is and overpaying for guys that no other team will pay that much for...which is NEVER a good thing.

...or it could just mean that they aren't willing to commit to a player now because something might come up late in the process that would move them off a certain player (e.g, injury, drug use, personality issues). 

...or, as my wife said, it could just be his way of saying 'mind your own business' and that asking that was a stupid question that the media should have known better than to ask.

Let's hope it's one or both of the latter two!

But let's assume for the second it was one of the first two.

Right now, from everything I have read, the #1 pick could be a two-horse race:

• January's #1 prospect - JJ Wetherholt
• May's #1 prospect - Travis Bazzana

I also believe, as many others do, that this will come down to money, which probably eliminates Charlie Condon, who, as a draft-eligible sophomore, will probably not settle for a lot less than slot money.  Hopefully, and I repeat, HOPEFULLY, they are not seriously considering Chase Burns (huge reliever risk) or Jac Caglianone (huge chase rate).  Again, and I will likely say this dozens of more times before the draft, Burns and Caglianone would be picks where our scouting director thinks he knows more than the rest of the industry.  So let's hope at no point in the first 5 rounds of this draft does he act like that.

So, will we pick the early #1 or the later #1?  If I had to bet, I would say the following:

• If the bonus they are searching for is $8.5 million or less they will draft JJ, giving them $2 million extra to work with later in the draft
• If their bonus target is $9.5 million or less, they will likely draft Bazz, giving them over $1 million more to work with but $1 million less than if they could snag JJ at $8.5 million.

Two things to consider here:

• JJ is currently 4/5 in most rankings.  The last team to take a college player that low at 1-1 was the Pirates with Henry Davis in 2021.   
• The Pirates saved a lot of money (almost $2 million) but spent all of that and more on Bubba Chandler (#63 prospect overall right now) a HS pitcher but prospective college quarterback.  

The key here is that Chandler was going to college to play football and baseball and they had to offer him an obscene bonus ot $3 million to get him off that commitment.  Chandler was picked at #72 but was the 21st best prospect, matching the slot value that was almost identical to his eventual bonus.  

I think a good case can be made that the Pittsburgh scouting director tried to show he was the smartest guy in the room and we found out that, in fact, he wasn't.  Let's hope the new Cleveland scouting director doesn't repeat that mistake.  

...and let's hope Antonnetti was just deflecting a question that the media should have known he would never answer.

2. It's not enough.  It's NOT enough.

Currently, the algorithm that Baseball Reference uses to calculate a team's chances in the post-season sayings that Cleveland has a 98.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 10.6% chance of winning the World Series which, I think, is one of the top percent chances currently in baseball.

Yet the Twitter fanbase is nervous.  This makes me think of two things:

First, I remember in the NFL playoffs of 2021 when the Browns played the Steelers.  They were putting up points like crazy in the first quarter and I remember thinking when it was 21-0, "It's not enough, they need to put up more points".  Then it went to 28-0 and I felt a lot more secure.  Anecdotally, I later talked ot my brother who was watching the game in a different city and he had EXACTLY the same thoughts at EXACTLY the same time.

So I get the feeling that Cleveland sports fans have.  We are only happy when we know the outcome is absolutely not in doubt.  Other than that there is always the trepidation that the sky will symbolically fall in and the unthinkable will happen.  I get it.

Second, I remember a poster that a colleague had hanging on the wall of his cubicle of a vulture sitting on a cow's skull in the desert with the caption "Patience?  Hell.  Let's just go out and kill something".

I get that emotion, too, as it feeds into the first point above.  

So, let's address the need for trades right now:

(1) It would be great to trade for a starting pitcher.  Notice I didn't say we NEED to trade for a starting pitcher.  The latter will only be true if Gavin Williams tanks in his starts before the all-star break.    So right now it would be nice, but it may turn into NEED

(2) Almost every team in baseball is still in the playoff race and almost every team in baseball needs pitching and, with so many starting pitchers injured, good pitching is at a premium and every available SP will be the subject of a bidding war.

There is a sentiment among those "It's not enough" people who likely make up the vast majority of Guardians' fans that we don't have enough to even win the division and that, in no way, can we compete with the Yankees, Orioles and Dodgers in the playoffs as we don't have enough ammunition in our magazine.  

But let's set things straight:

1. Yes, it would be nice to gain talent separation between us and Minn and KC.  But at what cost?

2. There is no way that I can to gain in talent on the Yankees, Dodgers or Orioles.  Any trade we make will surely be bested by the Yankees and Dodgers meaning that even if we go all in on 2024 the gap beween us and them is gonna get greater and the odds of us beating them is going to get smaller.

So, we are back to "At what cost". 

I am going on record as saying that we need more starting pitching (maybe 2 guys) from the trade market and we could use a good RHH outfielder who can play RF or maybe even CF.

So the only question, as I said above, is at what cost?  Hey, read my blog post

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: How To Keep This Rolling - Part 2 - Time For Some Trades - But Who Do We Trade? (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

I am willing to trade just about anyone to improve our 2024 team.  But the question is not who I would trade but whether we get equal value back.  This is Cleveland.  The talent going out HAS to equal the talent coming in.  We can't buy our way out of a mistake.  

So, my call to the FO is to make a deal or two but don't overpay.  If you are forced to overpay then don't make a trade.  Another example I fall back on:  The A's asked for THREE top 100 prospects in baseball from us for Sean Murphy and eventually accepted ZERO top 100 prospects from Atlanta/Milwaukee in the trade for Murphy.  There isn't much argument now that the best player in the trade that left Atlanta went to Milwaukee, not Oakland.  

We need to do something but not overpay.  In a seller's market, that is a tough sell to Cleveland fans, especially those who have seen top prospects, Freeman, Arias, Rocchio, JRod, Osacar Gonzalez, Bobby Bradley, etc. struggle and us get nothing back for them.  

But the FO needs to stay the course.  They know what our prospects are worth and they shouldn't just throw guys away because we have duplicates.  They SHOULD trade those duplicates away to get value back.   Be creative, guys.  Get us some pitching and some veteran hitting but don't overpay.

It sounds easy, right? Good! Now go get it done.

3.  This is the most crucial series of the year.

Literally, every series from now to the end of the season could have that label slapped on it.  But, in reality, we do need to win a good number of games before the all-star break.  This means, to me, that:

(1) We need to win the series against the White Sox to keep up what we need to do.  Sweeping them would be a tough task but if we do that it would help immensely.

(2) We need to win the series against the Giants.  I doubt we sweep them but it could happen as they remind me, to some extent, of Toronto at this point.

(3) We need to go 2-2 against the Tigers.  3-1 is optimal but a split is necessary.

(4) We need to win one game in Tampa to go 1-2 there.  Tampa is playing better and we need to scratch out a game against them in anticipation of Minn and KC doing no better than that when they play a similar team to TB.  

If you look at it in sum, that means we need to go 7-6 in the games before the all-star break.  9-4 is optimal but 6-7 would be the lowest we could go and, depending on how Minn and KC do, even 6-7 could cause us to lose a lot of our lead.  

So, 7-6 is the standard and 9-4 is the goal.  Anything above 9-4 and I think we enter the trade deadline period in a strong position to do something if it makes sense but not in a position where we feel any pressure to do something.

There you have it. 

Go Guardians!    

How To Keep This Rolling - Part 2 - Time For Some Trades - But Who Do We Trade?

If we make a trade at the deadline one of the most important things to do is first identify the assets you will and won't trade.  So here are my thoughts:

TRADEABLE

Guys You Build A Trade Around

1. Kyle Manzardo - Love his skill set but we have Josh Naylor, making Manzo expendable

2. Jose Tena - An above average hitting LHH SS, he is going to have a lot of value

3. Ralphy Velasquez - For a team making a long-term play in a trade, he is the guy.

Part of A Big Trade

4. Gabriel Arias - Maybe a stretch by SS with his power and arm don't grow on trees.

5. George Valera - Depressed value now but a great trade chip as the top secondary part of a deal

6. Parker Messick - A hot SP right now, he is close to ML ready.

7. Joey Cantillo - Like Messick, a close to ML ready SP.

8. Angel Genao - A longer term play, we look at him as excess MIF depth.  Other teams may see him as the crown jewel of their MIF prospects

9. Any other top 30 prospect in our farm systems not listed above or below.

The Icing On The Deal

10. Andrew Walters - Despite his hiccup at AAA, he is a close to ML ready leverage reliever controllab

11. Jonathon Rodriguez - A plug and play guy who could make a trade pay dividends right away for some team.

11. Khalil Watson - More than a throw-in but less than a central figure in a trade, he could just tip the scales to get a deal done.

12. Alex Mooney - Ditto to Watson

13. Jacob Bresnahan - A hot commodity in rookie ball right now, he might be another guy who tips the scales on a deal.

14. Jhonkensy Noel 

15. Any one of Ryan Webb, Doug Nikhazy, Will Dion, Tommy Mace or Matt Wilkinson (once one is traded I want to keep the rest)

16. Any other player in our farm system not listed above or below.

17. Any player on our ML roster or IL not listed below.

UNTRADEABLE

1. Angel Martinez - I would obviously be willing to trade any LHH or RHH middle infield prospects we have.  But I want to keep switch hitting, good hitting, versatile players who are close to the majors

2. Juan Brito - See Martinez

3. Chase DeLauter - Damaged goods, he couldn't be the center of any deal and, therefore, I don't see how including him is something either the Guardians (as a throw-in) or another team (as a main part of a deal) would want to do.

4. Jaison Chourio - No more Junior Caminero moves, please.

5. Daniel Espino - see DeLauter.

6, George Valera - See DeLauter

7. CJ Kayfus - Normally he would be a main part of a deal, especially since he is positionally and handedness redundant as a LHH 1B.  Plus he has so much buzz around him right now.  If he could be in the list of guys you build a deal around, I would trade him.  However, I see teams valuing him only as a secondary part of a deal and I think we would be sellng him way short at this early time by trading him.

8. The following players on our ML roster: Bibee, Williams, Jose, the Naylors, Fry, Gimenez, Schneeman, Kwan, Clase, Cade Smith, Gaddis, Lively, Herrin, Hentges.

So, knowing what we have to work with in a trade, now I go looking for trades at the deadline in Part 3

2024 Draft - Part 20 - Summary of Posts So Far

 OK, I thought it would be a good time to put, in one place, links to all the blog posts I have made so far as we lead up to the 2024 draft beginning in a little over 2 weeks. So, if you are interested, please feel free to browse.  Note that as you go through these, one thread appears throughout: Don't think you are smarter than the system and just make solid picks with a swinkle of aggression and you can wind up with a great draft!  I encourage you to read through these posts for, possibly, a totally different vision of the baseball draft and how it has and should impact the Guardians and their 2024 draft.  Enjoy!

So here goes:

Part 19: Explores types of players who might be value picks in the draft (other than the typical college junior/HS senior groups)

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 19 - The Undiscovered Country - Unusual Places To Get Good Players In The Draft (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 18 - Talks about how draft-eligible guys performed/are performing in the Cape Cod League, a league where performance seems to be a big factor in how the Guardians rate their college draft prospects.

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 18 - How YOU Doin'? News From The Cape Cod League (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 17 - Warns of the Risks of taking the unusual path of drafting a lower-ranked prospect at 1-1, trying to save money for later rounds.

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 17 - So You Think You Are Smarter Than Everyone Else? (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 16 - My first total mock draft of who the Guardians might pick in all 20 rounds of the draft if the draft had been held on June 9th.

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 16 - It's June 9th. What I Would Do If The Draft Was Tomorrow (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 15 - A look back at the strategy and results from the Guardians' 2021 draft and the lessons we learned from picking a LOGICAL strategy and executing it.

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 15 - A Look Back At The 2021 Draft. (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 14 - Looks, from the beginning of the draft, at the history the exact draft slots in rounds 7-10 of the 2024 draft that the Guardians will be drafting.

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 14 - the History of Our 2024 Draft Slots - Our 6th-10th Round Slots (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 14 (#2) - Looks at the history of the draft slots in rounds 4, 5 and 6 that Cleveland will pick at in the 2024 Draft

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 14 - the History of of Our 2024 Draft Slots - Draft Slots #113, #146 and #175 (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 13 -  Following superstition, there was no part 13 and, no, I don't step on the baselines when I leave a baseball/softball field

Part 12 - A history of the draft slots for our Comp A, 2nd and 3rd round picks the Guardians will be picking at in the 2024 draft

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 12 - The History of Our 2024 Draft Slots - Draft Slots #36, #48 and #84 (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 11 - Looks at EXACTLY how much money the Guardians have in their draft budget for the 2024 draft, including the 4.99% overage and what that means in terms of penalties.

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 11 - How Much Money Do We Have to Play With? (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 10 - A look at some players in the category of draft-eligible sophomores and what that term means (NOTE: This is not a very comprehensive list.  Those lists are available as paid content on a few other websites but I neither want to poach this material for this blog nor do I want to pay for content as my blog is always free and it goes against that concept).

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 10 - Draft-Eligible Sophomores - No Bargains There (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 9 - A look at how many DH, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B were drafted in the first 10 picks of the last 10 drafts.

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 9 - Let's Look at Trends at the Top of the Past 10 Drafts - DH, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, C (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 8 - A look at the trend in pitchers drafted in the top 10 picks of the last 10 drafts

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 8 - Let's Look at Trends at the Top of the Past 10 Drafts - Pitchers (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 7 - A look at trends in outfielders drafted in the first 10 picks of the last 10 drafts

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 7 - Let's Look At Trends Near the Top of the Past 10 Drafts - Outfielders (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 6 - Early mock draft for players drafted beyond 1-1

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 6 - An Early Look Beyond 1-1 - Mock Draft 1.0 for Rounds 1-10 (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 5 - A cautionary tale about what happens when you draft safe, draft off a primary position and draft injured players trying to out-think the experts with your 1-1 draft.

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 5 - Beau Mills - A Cautionary Tale (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 4 - This part describes how mistakes in the draft and mistakes in other player decision, including mistakes based on people thinking they are smarter than all the other draft people in baseball, impact drafts and moves a team makes going forward.  Really, this is a cautionary tale that says: DON'T SCREW UP THE 2024 DRAFT!!!

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 4 - Sins of the Father (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 3 - A very early look in January at potential players who might go 1-1.  Looking at this will tell you how things can change in the draft during the year of that draft.

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 3 - First thoughts about 1st Round Pick (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 2 - This article warms of how teams sometimes gravitate at the last minute to guys who move up draft boards and how there is value in guys who, at the last minute, suddenly move down draft boards, admonishing the Guardians' draft guys away from over-valuing 'the shiny new thing'.

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 2 - Believe Your Eyes - Don't Be Fooled By the Shiny New Thing! (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

Part 1 - Written after the draft lottery, this article looks at the data which says that, if they do their jobs correctly, the Guardians are looking at getting multiple great players in this draft.

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: 2024 Draft - Part 1 - History (and my experience) Lesson (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

If you have read this far, thanks!  Go Guardians!

2024 Draft - Part 19 - The Undiscovered Country - Unusual Places To Get Good Players In The Draft

 Around this time of year, casual draft fans are likely thinking about first round picks, multi-tool college juniors and high school senior studs.

However, for those who are draft geeks, the draft is much more nuanced than that with the following additional groups:  

• Injured college players - Chase DeLauter, Zach Plesac and others are good examples of how investing in an injured player who has fallen in the draft due to his injury is a good thing to do.  Get talent at a discount.  This is especially true for college pitchers who may fall off of teams' radars if they don't pitch in a season or in most of a season due to injury.  Teams may not follow up on a guy, thinking he may just be going back to college.  So, in some instances, a good scout can get a player to sign who wasn't even thinking about that after his injury.
• Draft-eligible college sophomores - In the past this group was limited to red-shirt sophomores or, in rare cases, double-red-shirt freshmen.  Basically, guys who were 21 or older, had been in college for 3 years but who used up less years of eligibility than that.  The new CBA changed that and included sophomores, even legitimate, non-redshirted sophomores who turn 21 within a few weeks after the draft (August 1st is the deadline now, I think).  This includes guys who enroll in college at age 19 and, therefore, reach 21 years old after only 2 real years in college. The downside of this group, as Alex Mooney showed last year, is that they have EXTREME leverage over the team that drafts them.  That's because, as sophomores, they can just go back to school if they don't get the bonus they want and still be draft-eligible two more times before they use up their college eligibility.   Therefore, after high school pitchers, this is the most risky group to pick from, in terms of being able to sign them to a reasonable bonus.   The better ones almost always sign for way over slot and, in some cases, change their minds AFTER they are drafted and ask for more money which can severely hamstring your draft budget.
• College seniors - These are guys who have exhausted their college eligibility.  They have very little leverage but are generally selected by teams in the first 10 rounds to save money (signing for $1-10 K) or selected on the 3rd day of the draft for depth prospects (generally signing for $1K).
• Red-shirt college juniors - These guys are, by age, really college seniors but by eligibility they still have one year left before exhausting their college eligibility. This gives them a little more leverage than college seniors if a team tries to lowball them, but these guys are generally signable for slot money or a little higher.
• Draft-eligible college players in the transfer portal - To me, this IS part of the undiscovered country of the draft.  It used to be that college transfers had to sit a year before they could play.  With the new transfer portal rules, they are almost always eligible to play at their new college the next year.  The point here is that a player who wants to transfer is, for some reason, not satisfied with their current college.  Maybe the coaches who recruited them have left.  Maybe they weren't getting playing time.  Maybe they weren't as visible to scouts because they played at smaller colleges.  And, most recently, maybe they weren't able to get much NIL money at their former college.  But there's always a reason.  ML teams may be able to leverage that, trading the certainty of bonus money for the uncertainty of a new college.   Some players in the portal aren't draft-eligible yet because they are true freshman or sophomores.  But the ones who are eligible?  Well, that may represent a place where you can get a college player to sign who would normally just go back to school.  Chase Burns was a transfer portal guy, so there is ML talent in the portal, if a player is draft-eligible and a ML team is looking!
• Re-classified high school seniors -  Some HS juniors who have enough credits to graduate HS decide they want to get their college careers started and, therefore, graduate early, reclassifying themselves as de facto HS seniors.  As scouts and teams tend to focus on the draft-eligible guys that year, a player who re-classifies himself may slide under the radar and teams may not draft him because, well, they just don't know enough about him.  Smart teams should be looking for these re-classified guys as they could represent more undiscovered country in draft-eligible players.
• Draft-and-follow college players - Back in the day, as us old people say, when there were 40 or 60 or more rounds in the draft, you just couldn't find enough quality prospects to draft.  During that period teams would hedge their bets and draft a guy who was going to junior college or who was a junior college freshman who was going back to their school.   Instead of signing those players within the normal signing period, they were allowed to sign those players all they way up to the next draft.  While that practice was discontinued a few years ago, the new CBA reinstated it and they also added an interesting caveat.  While a drafted player can be signed for up to $150,000 without it counting against your draft pool, a draft-and-follow player signed the next year can be signed for $225,000 without it counting against that pool.  So the $75,000 additional to play with is the carrot.  But the stick is that, if a player doesn't sign the following year you have lost that player.  It would sting a little more to not sign 1 player in your 20 round draft compared to not signing 1 player in a 60 round draft as happened, wait for it....in the old days.

So, there are some more things that I hope the Guardians draft staff are thinking about as they look for talent.  Overlaying those things are the performances of players in the Cape Cod Summer League that I covered in Part 18 of this series as well as organizational strategy, such as the Guardians (and Dodgers and Reds) drafting a bunch of college pitchers in 2021 and the Guardians drafting a bunch of LH slap hitters with good strike zone judgement in 2022 and 2023.  

When you are a small market team you should ALWAYS be looking for the undiscovered country.  Let's hope the Guardians find some again this year and that that helps them to strike it rich in the 2024 draft.