How To Keep This Rolling - Part 3 - No, Really, We NEED To Make Trades

Many Guardians' fans are currently thinking 2 things about our team:

• We need 1-2 starting pitchers and an impact bat, preferably a RFer or CFer, before the deadline.
• We need to trade some of our prospect depth at AA and AAA to fill those needs.

The problem with that is two-fold:

• With all the injured pitchers in MLB and all the teams STILL in contention 25 teams within 5.5 games of a Wildcard or Division Championship berth), the competition for sarting pitching will be fierce at the deadline.
• Competition for ANY player at the deadline will be fierce
• It sounds like the Yankees, Orioles, Phillies and Dodgers, the four teams with the best chance to make the WS this year, will be active players at the deadline so any deadline improvement teams like the Guardians make at the deadline will likely be offset when some or all of those 4 teams make a bigger splash.

It is obvious that the Guardians have an excess of prospects, a lot of it being ML-ready or close to it.  But what is NOT so obvious is that, given the performance of those prospects this year, they will likely HAVE to make some deals by the November roster freeze or almost surely lose a good number of players in the Rule 5.

Yeah, yeah, I know. People like me warn about losing players in the Rule 5 every year and it (almost) never happens.  But I am telling your, it is REALLY going to happen this winter unless the Guardians do something.  Let's take a look at the numbers (with minor league options still available entering 2025) who will likely occupy space on the 40-man roster:

Pitchers (17): Allen, Bibee, Cantillo, Clase, Curry, Espino, Gaddis, Hentges, Herrin, Karinchak, Lively McKenzie, Morgan, Sandlin, Smith, Stephan, Williams

Catchers(2): Bo Naylor, Fry

Infielders (10): Arias, Brito, Gimenez, Manzardo, Angel Martinez, Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Rocchio, Schneeman, Tena

Outfielders (6): Brennan, Freeman, Kwan, Noel, JRod, Valera

Yeah, you can debate about Karinchak, McKenzie, Allen, Arias and even Rocchio, but I don't honestly believe that the Guardians would non-tender or DFA any of these guys as they all have significant upside both in trades and in future development.  

So there you have it.  Right now, IMO, the Guardians are looking at 35 rock solid spots on the 40-man roster.  So we have 6 spots left to add this off-season IF we don't sign any free agents.  Let's look at who might fill those spots:

Returning players (2): Bieber, Avila

Players eligible for the Rule 5 draft not currently on the 40-man (ones in bold are top 40 prospects (my ranking) in the Guardians' organization):  

Pitchers (13): Doug Nikhazy (AAA), Will Dion (AAA), Franco Aleman (AAA), Nick Mikolajchak (AAA), Andrew Misiaszek (AAA), Ryan Webb (AA), Tommy Mace (AA), Aaron Davenport (AA), Lenny Torres Jr. (AA), Trenton Denholm (A+), Ethan Hankins (AA), Alonzo Richardson (A), Yorman Gomez (A)

Infielders (5): Dayan Frias (AA), Milan Tolentino (AA), Maick Collado (AA), Jose Devers (A+), Juan Benjamin (A+), 

Outfielders (4): Petey Halpin (AA), Alexfri Planez (AA), Wuilfredo Antunez (A), Esteban Gonzalez (A), 

So, without even dipping into the guys who might be flyers as Rule 5 picks (Halpin, Frias, Mikolajchak, Misiaszek, Planez), we are talking about about 1/4 of our top 40 prospects, with 7 being pitchers in AA or AAA, who are very easily projectable to make the Guardians' ML roster sometime in 2025.  

Those 7 pitching prospects, along with our glut of ML middle infielders, represent the real problem here.  All the other guys on the non-40-man roster list above are typical Rule 5-eligible guys.  That is, guys who are selectable but have little chance to stick on a ML roster in 2025.  Some small chance but very little.

But those 7 pitchers, added to maybe Bieber and Avila, represent 9 guys battling for 5 40-man roster spots.  So maybe FOUR guys will be lost for nothing, either to free agency or to the Rule 5.   That's not acceptable for a small market club.

And that's if we don't make any trades or acquisitions.  They also represent guys who might be good enough to keep us from wasting resources in trades if they can fill SP roles next year.

So, between the middle infielder excess who we can't find playing time for, and SP prospects who we can't protect AND maybe a couple of outfielder prospects, we need to make a trade...or two...or three.

Fans may think we need to make those trades to make us more competitive this year.   But what we need to make trades for is to clear some roster space AND make us more competitive this year AND in the future.  The question is, will the market allow us to do that and will our FO be savvy enough to make that happen?

Let's hope they can.