2024 Draft - Part 21 -It's July 7th and The Cleveland Guardians Are Exactly One Week From Being On The Clock

 OK, the Guardians are not only in the home stretch of the marathon that is draft preparation, they are in the last 100 yards!

So, what are my thoughts for the evening of July 7th?

• The Pirates top selection last year, Paul Skenes, was either the top or 2nd best prospect in the draft in 2023 and the Pirates selected him at 1-1, giving him the top bonus in draft history. Now he's an MLB All-Star.
• In 2021 the Pirates selected the 5th best prospect in the draft, Henry Davis, to save money for later picks(s).  Henry Davis has a sub-Mendoza ML BA and is looking more and more like a failure.  
• Matt Underwood, on the TV broadcast today, came off as an advance apologist for the FO by pointing to a draft 10 years ago with VERY misleading stats.  He said the top two guys from that draft never even made the majors but suspiciously failed to point out that the top guy, Brady Aiken, didn't sign because an injury was discovered after he was drafted.  He also didn't mention that the Guardians shocked the world a year later and wasted their #1 pick (and millions of dollars) in a gamble that Aiken was better, and healthier, than he had appeared the previous year.  Picking an injured player that they hoped was a steal, they were wrong.   A conspiracy theorist could say that this is all just part of the setup for when the Guardians make a stupid selection at 1-1 in an attempt to save money and for their scouting director to show that he is the smartest guy in the room.   That same conspiracy theory could apply to Jensen Lewis pimping JJ Wetherholt as the Guardians' #1 pick and how exciting a player he is.
• Talking about Aiken, the Guardians also used their #1 pick in 2022 on an injured player, Chase DeLauter and, guess what, he is still injured.  Hey, he's a good prospect but he has been injured most of his career.  Even at that, he was only the 16th overall pick who was projected before the 2022 to be a top-5 selection.  So, in essence, they got him as a bargain.  Nonetheless that bargain came with risk that is now playing out.  
• Nothing has changed for me.  Bazzana is the top selection and, frankly, anyone besides Bazzana is just the Guardians' scouting director thinking he is going to outsmart all the other scouting directors, trying to make himself look like the smartest scouting director in baseball.  That is a recipe for disaster for a club that has NEVER had the 1-1.
• No one has provided a pathway where there are player(s) who are guaranteed to be there who we would target savings   It's never just as simple as spreading the money around as you really have no idea who will be available later and whether they will be worth the money you have to spread around...or whether they will even sign for the money they agreed to sign for.  Alex Mooney from last year is the perfect example.  The Guardians had what they thought was a deal with Mooney but after the draft he changed the amount he wanted, asking for $1 millon.  That caused the Guardians to not have the money to sign Marohn and/or Heuer.  Even the Pirates, in 2021, used the savings on Bubba Chandler, meaning that they picked someone who is now just the 63rd best prospect in baseball and it cost them $3 million (basically that year, mid-first round money).  In contrast, the #1 prospect in 2021 was Marcelo Mayer, who is now the #10 prospect in baseball.  So, was Henry Davis and Bubba Chandler worth more than Marcelo Mayer?  At best this looks like an even swap meaning that taking the expected pick, Mayer, was the best way to go as you would have at least had one top prospect.
• Hey, Bazzana is not Paul Skenes.  Anyone who knows the draft knows that this is a weak draft.  Still, the only way for me that Bazzana should not be the Guardians' #1 pick is if:
• Bazanna has a serious hand/wrist injury from when he was hurt earlier this year that probably will require surgery (e.g., some bone graft procedure) and an extensive healing process resulting in an uncertain outcome.  Note that this IS a real possibility as his post-injury stats were really pathetic this year and his post-season performance was terrible.
• Charlie Condon is a cheater.   You can't deny the stats but there are question marks.  Like his BB/K rate is 57/41 (in 304 PA) but, if you remove the 28 intentional walks and the 4-pitch 'unintentional' intentional walks, his actual BB/K rate is 25/39.  If his power numbers are artificially inflated, with his adjusted mediocre walk rate, he is a candidate for mediocrity as a ML player, although he STILL will be a ML regular.

So, there it is.  The more 'spin' I hear from the media, the more I think we are in trouble as a team for this draft.   People will tell you that you can't judge a draft right after it and have to wait years.  I disagree but I do agree on one thing.  By the time, a few years down the road, when you get absolute confirmation you screwed up a draft, it has done irreparable harm to a small market club like Cleveland.

I repeat: Paul Skenes is an all-star.  Henry Davis is a likely bust.  Don't make the Pirates 2021 mistake as I doubt, unlike the Pirates, we get to do it right by having the 1-1 again two years later.

The 1-1 was a gift the Guardians, as a franchise, didn't deserve, based on their record.  Don't waste it trying to show that your scouting director and department is smarter than the rest of baseball.  Do the right thing.  You have enough position player talent in the minors right now.  what you DON'T have is that Jose Ramirez impact talent and that, if everything else is OK, is Bazzana.

Pick Bazzana!  Anyone else, at this point, unless there are some serious problems with Bazzana, would be trying to be cute.  Don't try to be cute.  You're not smarter than the rest of the Scouting Directors in baseball.  Pick Bazzana and make smart picks after him.  Cleveland needs this for a healthy future that doesn't require expensive free agent signings...something that is not likely to happen here.