OK, we are less than a week from the beginning of the 2024 draft. Here is my latest (and hopefully final) mock draft as any mock draft I do after this would be because of something really unforeseen and likely unfortunate thing happening. So, let's go.
1-1 - Travis Bazzana - 2B - Oregon St. - Bazzana still best fits the Guardians' type of hitter. There is no reason and nothing I have heard that has swayed me off of him. I see this pick coming in about $1.2 million below slot.
1-36 (Supplemental A) - Luke Holman - RHP - LSU -As you can tell I have moved off of Mike Sirota (RHH OFer, Northeastern) at this pick. Holman is the type of pitcher who I think will do well in the CGFS4CP (Cleveland Guardians Finishing School For College Pitchers, previously known as "The Factory"). I think the recent success of Nikhazy, Mace, Davenport and Denholm shows me this program is alive and doing well. And, you can never have enough pitching. I see this pick coming in slightly below slot.
2-48 - Bryce Cunningham, RHP - Vanderbilt - I like Cunningham because I think he will do well with the help of the CGFS4CP and is a relatively safe pick and should come in a little below slot.
3-84 - HS Pitcher Way Over Slot Pick - In 2023 Washington pick Travis Sykora, a HS RHP at #71 (#40 ranked prospect) and signed him for $2.6 million ($1.6 million over slot). In 2022 the Rangers signed Brock Porter at #109 (#11 prospect) for $3.7 million (#2.14 million over slot). In 2021 the Pirates signed Bubba Chandler at #72 (#21 prospect) for $3 million ($2.13 million over slot). This seems like where the Guardians would make their huge over slot investment.
4-113 - Matt Ager - RHP - UC Santa Barbara - Earlier in the year I thought that Ager might sneak into the top 2 rounds but the way he was used this year, in my opinion, caused his stuff to play down. I think we use this pick to make up a little money as I think he comes in under slot. I don't think he will, but if somehow Mike Sirota OF Northeastern slips to here, I take him before I take Ager.
5-146 -Bridger Holmes - RHP - Oregon State - It is tough for teams to draft a reliever. Hey, starter with reliever risk is easy. But reliever? So I hope Holmes will be available here. Note that I have moved him up from 175 to 146 because I like him a lot, although I wouldn't be unhappy with Nick Brink RHP Portland here.
6-175 - Draft-Eligible Sophomore - Last year the Guardians picked Alex Mooney, a draft-eligible sophomore in the 7th round. Given the success that Mooney has had this year, I think they go back to that well again this year. I can't begin to say who will drop to this point in the draft but I do think that the Guardians will be targeting a sophomore who is a position player and maybe an OFer or corner infielder. Some names that come to mind are Khadim Diaw, C/OF, Loyola Marymount, Jared Thomas, 1B/OF Texas, Austin Overn OF, USC, Anthony Silva, 3B, TCU, Zach Stewart, OF, Missouri State. Hard to tell if any of these guys will drop this far or whether even more highly rated prospects will drop due to their leverage as sophomores but, for what it's worth, Diaw and Overn are crushing it in the Cape this summer and Diaw hits RH and, obviously, has come catching background (Cough! David Fry. Cough!).
7-205 - Owen Boerema - RHP - Kansas State - A senior sign, Boerema was a solid pitcher for K-State, logging 98 innings this spring, He would hit the ground running if he was available here and would be a very cheap sign.
8-235 - Nate Knowles - RHP - William & Mary - I have upgraded him from round 12 in my previous mock draft. He will likely be a slot to slightly above slot signing.
9-265 - John Bay - OF - Austin Peay - Bay is hitting with power in the Cape this summer so he might be gone here but I like this guy and he is really my only other power hitter (after Bazzana) in this draft and he is a RHH outfielder who should come in somewhere around slot
10-295 - Pierce Coppola - LHP - Florida - Well, after his CWS start, he might not be available here but scouts have gotten only sporadic looks at him so maybe he lasts this long. One thing for sure: that one CWS start for Florida will be worth $150,000+ for him as he will likely cost $250,000 to sign.
Round 11 - Matt Koch - RHP - Creighton (in transfer portal) - Koch turns 21 on June 29th, making him both a draft-eligible sophomore and a transfer portal guy. With a fastball up to 96 and other good analytics, he looks good (60 Ks in 38.1 innings in 2024). Normally 11th round picks, being the first picks on day 3, after the dust settles on a frantic day 2, are places where teams can pick up gems. In the 11th and 12 rounds of previous drafts we have picked up guys like Adam Plutko, Zach Plesac and, recently, Magnus Ellerts (2022), Hunter Stanley (2021) and Nick Mikolajchak (2019), all college pitchers. Obviously Koch will cost us over slot but not so much that we won't have it left in our war chest from savings on picks in the first 10 rounds.
Round 12 - Micah McDowell - OF - Oregon State - Literally no one must like this guy the way I do. But I see him as a solid senior signing and I don't necessarily see any of my other day 3 picks being impacted by using a relatively early day 3 slot to pick McDowell. I mean, look at the stats: .403/.505/.667/1.167. He has stolen less bases this year but he plays CF and stole 15 last year and 25 the year before in summer ball in only 35 games! As was said about Holmes, the Guardians scouting Bazzana would have gotten plenty of looks at McDowell as, except for a period where he was injured, he hit 2nd in the OSU order, right behind Bazzana. If we can get him here I say why not?
Round 13 - Draft Eligible College Sophomore - This is a placeholder for a player in this category. It will be an overslot signing, maybe up to $300,000. I think this player will ALSO be a position player although he could play anywhere on the field with catcher being a potential surprise position if they find the appropriate one available to them at this point.
Round 14 - Colby Holcombe - RHP - Mississippi State - Another guy, like Coppola with good size and bad stats, Holcombe is a perfect fit for the Guardians. I think it will cost them a little more money to pry him away from college (probably $200,000) just to show him we are serious and convince him that he is not likely, based on his track record, to do any better if he goes back to college for another year.
Round 15 HS P Flyer #2 - I put a name to this spot in my last mock but let's leave this one open...and just remember the guy I suggested before, in case it actually happens I can puff out my chest about it. See him as a $300,000 signing.
Round 16 - Injured college pitcher #1 - There are a number of these guys out there but I don't want to single one out.
Round 17 - HS Pitcher Flyer #3 - Like Zinn from last year, probably closer to $150,000 than $300,000, but still overslot.
Round 18 - Injured college P #2 - Again, don't want to put a name on this one but they are out there. This is just a placeholder for someone.
Round 19 - Injured college pitcher #3 - Matt Willadsen - RHP - NC State - Willadsen would have been a senior but was injured this winter and missed the entire season. He would be a cheap sign and I like what I read about him.
Round 20 - JUCO Draft-and-follow - This is a placeholder for someone we will draft who is going to a junior college in the 2024/2025 school year who we can sign up until the date of the 2025 draft for as much as $225,000 without it counting against our 2024 draft budget. Normal ceiling for a bonus that doesn't count against your budget is $150,000.
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