Still about a week from September
Good news: Although the Columbus Clippers season will end on Sept. 5th, they are out of both the International League's Western Division race and, for all practical purposes, the IL Wild Card race. So the Indians should have nothing to wait for to expand the rosters when Sept. 1st rolls around next Saturday.
Let's look at what should happen in September:
Call up:
1. Tim Fedroff - He deserves a look. Admittedly, he or Carrera only make the roster next year if Michael Brantley is a starter. For us to be competitive Brantley needs to be a 4th outfielder but that may not happen. If Brantley starts than Fedroff or Carrera should win the 4th outfielder job (please, no more AAAA guys!!!!). So Fedroff needs to play.
2. Jared Goedert - Look, he probably is not ML caliber. But he deserves a shot not just based on this year but based on last year, too. MANY teams have thrown bones to their own guys like Goedert or even AAAA guys they have brought in who had outstanding AAA seasons. Time Goedert gets his 15 minutes of fame with the hope he can turn it in to much longer.
3. Juan Diaz - Yeah, he may not be ready but he is already on the 40-man and we should bring him back as he is hitting well at Columbus and it won't change the number of options he would have as we have already used up an option when we sent him back to the minors after his cup of coffee in Cleveland earlier this year and will use another one if we send him to the minors next spring...whether or not we bring him up in September.
4. Lonnie Chisenhall - This can wait until Sept. 6th after he gets some ABs at Columbus
5. Jeanmar Gomez - We may go with 6 starters
6. Scott Barnes - Let's see what he looks like out of the bullpen in September
7. Cord Phelps - We need to decide on Phelps or Donald next year and now is a good time to get a look at both in the role they will be playing next year IF they are with this team: utility infielder
8. Chun Chen - Just give this guy a few ABs after Akron is finished with the EL playoffs just because he could be in Cleveland at some point next year AND because we will have to roster him this winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Calling him up now or putting him on the roster this winter is no different. In either case if you send him out next spring you use up one of his options AND, of course, he is a good enough prospect that he SHOULD be protected on the roster this winter.
9. Frank Herrmann - IF he puts up good numbers for the next week or so and doesn't look like he is pouting, MAYBE we call him back up. Looking at his appearance last night, he may, in fact, be pouting. If this is the case don't call him up.
10. Rafael Perez - This is not really a September callup but if EVER gets healthy this year, we should give him some innings.
Don't Call up:
Sorry, Lars Anderson, Vinny Rottino, Russ Canzler, et al - This is not the place where AAAA players get a few more ML ABs. No more. Ever.
David Huff - Look, I would love to call him up but he doesn't deserve it. He has pitched like crap and you would have guessed that he would have seen his career going down the tubes and worked like heck to get back to ML caliber. He was good early but has stunk recently when he needed to be good.
Get rid of right now or leave on the DL:
1.Shelly Duncan,
2. Jack Hannahan
3. Caset Kotchman
4. Brent Lillibridge
5. Chris Seddon
6. Travis Hafner..
Look, I know this is an old horse but, darn it, get rid of these failed experiments and move on. If ANY of these guys are on the roster next year it will be a sign the Indians are as bad next year as they have shown in the last two years. Plus we don't have enough ABs to give these guys any playing time in September. Get rid of them and make a statement that Cleveland will NOT be a vacation location for AAAA players any more.
Shut down:
1. Zach McAllister has pitched as many as 171 IP in a season. Right now he is at 153 this year, counting time at AAA and the majors. He should be allowed 2 more starts and then he should be shut down for the season. No need to wear out his arm this year.
Look, if we make these moves we are primed for a September tryout for our minor leaguers. No more AAAA guys and a look at prospects. The fans may not like it but they didn't come out to see this team when it was good so they shouldn't be too worried about who we play in September of a lost season.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Friday, August 24, 2012
Grady Sizemore - You owe us!
$18.3 million over the past 3 years. 104 games 392 AB. .219 BA, 10 HR.
That's Grady Sizemore's production over the past 3 seasons.
This winter we have a decision.
Grady Sizemore should have NONE.
The only ML team he has ever known needs him to sign a minor league deal without an opt out.
If he plays again it should be in Cleveland. He shouldn't try to get some desperate team to pay him more or even guaranteed money.
He should come to ST as a non-roster invitee and, if injured, he should continue his rehab here and stay for at least the entire next season.
Grady Sizemore has made over $23 million in salary here. Yes, he has done good things here to earn most of that money.
But still, he now owes US. If he doesn't sign a minor league deal with us and opts to go to another team it will be pretty pathetic. C'mon, break the mold. Be one of the few good players who stay with their team and don't go to wring every dollar out of the system!
That's Grady Sizemore's production over the past 3 seasons.
This winter we have a decision.
Grady Sizemore should have NONE.
The only ML team he has ever known needs him to sign a minor league deal without an opt out.
If he plays again it should be in Cleveland. He shouldn't try to get some desperate team to pay him more or even guaranteed money.
He should come to ST as a non-roster invitee and, if injured, he should continue his rehab here and stay for at least the entire next season.
Grady Sizemore has made over $23 million in salary here. Yes, he has done good things here to earn most of that money.
But still, he now owes US. If he doesn't sign a minor league deal with us and opts to go to another team it will be pretty pathetic. C'mon, break the mold. Be one of the few good players who stay with their team and don't go to wring every dollar out of the system!
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
The great Ubaldo Jimenez debate
Let’s talk Ubaldo Jimenez:
1. Traded for FOUR prospects including the Indians’ top 2 pitching prospects who were top 50 prospects in all of baseball. Check.
2. Major disappointment since his trade to the Indians. Check.
3. Degradation in his performance predicted by scouts based on his drop in velocity. Check
4. Two options. $5.75 million club option in 2013 with a $1 million buyout. $8 million player option in 2014. No buyout. Check.
The controversy is raging and will continue to rage into the off-season about whether we pick up his 2013 option. It is a legitimate question as picking up his option for 2013 allows him to exercise his 2014, $8 million option if he isn’t released or traded before the end of 2013.
So, do you pick up his 2013 option? YES, and here is why.
People want to look at him as a #1 or a #2 starter. Don’t. You will be disappointed. Look at him as a #4/5 starter with the potential to be A LOT better if he can learn, like many guys have, to pitch with lower velocity. Why? Because his 2013 salary ($4.75 million, the difference between his 2013 salary and his buyout) and his stats (see below) make him look like a good #4 or #5 starter.
His 2013 stats look like this:
· 13 out of 25 starts where he gave up 3 runs or less. In these games Jimenez was 8-1 with 4 no-decisions.
· He gave up 4 runs 4 times and was 0-3 with a no-decision in those starts
· He gave up 5-8 runs 8 times and was 0-8 in those starts.
· His numbers could be MUCH better than they are if he had pitched more at home. He is a much better pitcher at Progressive Field than on the road, although, as the team’s #2 pitcher, he started more on the road (10 starts at home and 15 on the road). Unless I am wrong a good manager will start his weaker starters at home and his better starters on the road, if he can, as his better starters need the home field advantage less than his weaker starters.
OK, why do I say he could be a lot better? Because research shows me that throwers with a history of success learn to be pitchers later in their career. They know how to win. While they lose velocity they learn to substitute command and control. They learn to PITCH. I think Jimenez is just realizing his velocity is not going to come back and he has to learn to pitch. I think he stands a better than 50/50 chance of having a much improved 2013 just based on him getting more savvy of how to pitch with his current repertoire.
So, where does that put us for 2013, assuming we get our guys back from injury and we don’t lose any others TO injury. Assuming we exercise the Jimenez option, our starting pitching for 2013 looks like this:
#1: Justin Masterson
#2: Need
#3: Carrasco
#4: Jimenez
#5: McAllister, Gomez or Kluber
Possibly ready by mid-season: Giovanni Soto, T.J. House, T.J. McFarland
Free agents:
Category 1: What we might stretch ($6-8 million per year for 3 years): Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez, James Shields,
Category 2: What we can afford (under $5 million a year for 1-3 years)(alphabetical order): Erik Bedard, Freddy Garcia, Jeremy Guthrie, Roberto Hernandez, Colby Lewis, Paul Maholm, Shaun Marcum, Jason Marquis, Roy Oswalt, Carl Pavano, Jonathon Sanchez, Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf
Category 3: We could get on a minor league contracts (NOTE: some of these guys may retire or have already retired): Aaron Cook, Doug Davis, Zach Duke, Jeff Francis, Rich Harden, Livan Hernandez, Rodrigo Lopez, Kevin Millwood, Ramon Ortiz, Joel Piniero, Brad Penny, Kip Wells, Chris Young, Chien-Ming Wang
I don’t see any category 2 guys I like more than Jimenez @ $4.75 million (difference between salary and buyout). I also don’t see any category 2 guys with as much or more potential to improve than Jimenez, something I look at as much as current performance.
I could see us signing and hope we sign a category 1 guy but he would slot in above Jimenez.
So, in the best case scenario here is what our rotation could look like at the beginning of next year:
Masterson
Shields ($7.5 million a year for 3 years)
Carrasco
Jimenez
Roberto Hernandez or another category 2 guy ($5 million or less per year for 1-2 years)
I think that would be fine. I think this would give us a 50/50 chance of getting a quality start any time we roll out a starting pitcher as you would be talking about 5 guys who, at one point in their career, had #1 starter potential or were #1 starters. If you look at what we did this year, even with our weak hitting, getting quality starts with our bullpen almost guaranteed us a good chance to win.
So, we would have veterans. We would have depth, youth and veterans on minor league deals and we would have the potential to be great (Jimenez, Carrasco and Hernandez could be MUCH better than expected). For a small market team with a weak farm system, especially at the upper levels, it doesn’t get any better than that.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Don't know if anyone is still up but....
The Indians get hammered again. I am reverse standings watching (and, I guess, reverse scoreboard watching). The Indians have a realistic chance to move up to the 3rd slot in the draft with a substantial 'cold' streak.
Speaking of streaks, Cody Allen maintained not being scored on in the major leagues tonight. To make it interesting he loaded the bases with no outs on a hit and two walks and got out of it WITHOUT a strikeout (pop up and double play grounder). I know he is likely to come crashing to earth soon as even the best relievers are scored on and the best rookie relievers are scored on more, usually in one implosional outing but man, has this kid been good or what?!?
Cord Phelps goes 4-4 tonight. Admittedly he hit the ball hard vs lefty Cesar Ramos (two doubles and the longest HR I have ever seen hit by a RH batter in Huntington Park) and put an awkward swing on a bloop single that should have been caught by the left fielder while batting lefty off the eventual winner, Josh Lueke. Still, really? Brent Lillibridge is still with the Indians and Phelps is STILL at AAA. Give me a freakin' break.
The Arizona Indians would be fun to watch, if I could watch them. On any night they could have seven .300 hitters in their lineup. In addition, most of our 2012 HS draftees are there, including Brown, Lovegrove and Baker, three young pitchers to keep an eye on. Tonight the legend of Dorsyss Paulino grew even more. He is 10 for his last 14 AB in his last 3 games and has 2 doubles, a triple and 2 HRs in that span and has increased his batting average every month and his recent streak busted him out of a 6-29 funk. Both of these things are impressive for a guy not used to playing this much baseball. Not bad for a guy from Lation America who is playing professional baseball for the first time (he totally skipped the DSL to come straight to the US). If he is not the #1 prospect in the Arizona League I would be surprised.
We really have some players on the Arizona team and, although it is a long shot, we could look back on this team in 7 years and call it one of the best minor league teams in Indians' history in terms of the number of quality major leaguers it produces. No other team in the farm system comes close to the number of quality prospects on this team. There are a minimum of two and maybe 3 of these guys who will be top ten prospects in the Indians system this winter if things stay the same.
Speaking of the AZL team, Caleb Hamrick made his professional debut tonight after Mitch Brown spun 5 hitless, runless innings in his longest start so far. That means that D.J. Brown, our 39th round pick, is the only 2012 draftee who has not played in a game this year.
BTW, did the Indians actually sign any non-drafted US college guys (usually college seniors) this year? I didn't think so and don't find any in the box scores. If I have missed some I apologize but, if not, this would mark the first year in a while that they didn't sign a couple of these non-drafted free agents. Remember, Frank Hermann was not drafted and was signed after the draft so these signings COULD be significant. I wonder, if they didn't, why didn't the Indians sign any of those guys.
Do you notice how we are, all of a sudden, shortstop heavy in the minors? Juan Diaz, Tony Wolters, Ronny Rodriguez, Francisco Lindor and Paulino give us some great depth. The Indians need to pick the two most likely guys and ask them to put on pounds and change positons. The guys most likely to do that would be Paulino and Rodriguez. I would like to leave Lindor and Wolters at SS/2B and Diaz has utility infielder with a little pop written all over him.
I still would trade Joe Smith right now. I can't imagine him being any more valuable than he is now and righty gimick pitchers are worth MOST at crunch time in a pennant race. I know how valuable he could be next year to us but, if we get a great deal, I trade him right now. Chen Lee, if healthy, could replace Smith in a heartbeat and be cheaper and maybe better. The key is if the Indians think Lee will be healthy next year.
Speaking of streaks, Cody Allen maintained not being scored on in the major leagues tonight. To make it interesting he loaded the bases with no outs on a hit and two walks and got out of it WITHOUT a strikeout (pop up and double play grounder). I know he is likely to come crashing to earth soon as even the best relievers are scored on and the best rookie relievers are scored on more, usually in one implosional outing but man, has this kid been good or what?!?
Cord Phelps goes 4-4 tonight. Admittedly he hit the ball hard vs lefty Cesar Ramos (two doubles and the longest HR I have ever seen hit by a RH batter in Huntington Park) and put an awkward swing on a bloop single that should have been caught by the left fielder while batting lefty off the eventual winner, Josh Lueke. Still, really? Brent Lillibridge is still with the Indians and Phelps is STILL at AAA. Give me a freakin' break.
The Arizona Indians would be fun to watch, if I could watch them. On any night they could have seven .300 hitters in their lineup. In addition, most of our 2012 HS draftees are there, including Brown, Lovegrove and Baker, three young pitchers to keep an eye on. Tonight the legend of Dorsyss Paulino grew even more. He is 10 for his last 14 AB in his last 3 games and has 2 doubles, a triple and 2 HRs in that span and has increased his batting average every month and his recent streak busted him out of a 6-29 funk. Both of these things are impressive for a guy not used to playing this much baseball. Not bad for a guy from Lation America who is playing professional baseball for the first time (he totally skipped the DSL to come straight to the US). If he is not the #1 prospect in the Arizona League I would be surprised.
We really have some players on the Arizona team and, although it is a long shot, we could look back on this team in 7 years and call it one of the best minor league teams in Indians' history in terms of the number of quality major leaguers it produces. No other team in the farm system comes close to the number of quality prospects on this team. There are a minimum of two and maybe 3 of these guys who will be top ten prospects in the Indians system this winter if things stay the same.
Speaking of the AZL team, Caleb Hamrick made his professional debut tonight after Mitch Brown spun 5 hitless, runless innings in his longest start so far. That means that D.J. Brown, our 39th round pick, is the only 2012 draftee who has not played in a game this year.
BTW, did the Indians actually sign any non-drafted US college guys (usually college seniors) this year? I didn't think so and don't find any in the box scores. If I have missed some I apologize but, if not, this would mark the first year in a while that they didn't sign a couple of these non-drafted free agents. Remember, Frank Hermann was not drafted and was signed after the draft so these signings COULD be significant. I wonder, if they didn't, why didn't the Indians sign any of those guys.
Do you notice how we are, all of a sudden, shortstop heavy in the minors? Juan Diaz, Tony Wolters, Ronny Rodriguez, Francisco Lindor and Paulino give us some great depth. The Indians need to pick the two most likely guys and ask them to put on pounds and change positons. The guys most likely to do that would be Paulino and Rodriguez. I would like to leave Lindor and Wolters at SS/2B and Diaz has utility infielder with a little pop written all over him.
I still would trade Joe Smith right now. I can't imagine him being any more valuable than he is now and righty gimick pitchers are worth MOST at crunch time in a pennant race. I know how valuable he could be next year to us but, if we get a great deal, I trade him right now. Chen Lee, if healthy, could replace Smith in a heartbeat and be cheaper and maybe better. The key is if the Indians think Lee will be healthy next year.
What the Indians need for 2013 and other random thoughts
Manny Acta has had his say. The Indians need bats and starting pitching. He's right. We need some power bats who should be right-handed, as well and you never have enough pitching. We can still win in 2013. We can. We just need to get some more talented major leaguers.
But we have to watch how we spend money. We have to be very careful.
Our starting pitching right now is Masterson, Jimenez and then a bunch of question marks. The good news is we have so many guys who can fill those question mark roles that we only need one guy the equivalent of Masterson to be competitive. Look, when we had Derek Lowe we were winning because he was pitching. If we get one decent starter, we can win. We have Jeanmar Gomez, Zach McAllister, Corey Kluber, Josh Tomlin and maybe Scott Barnes, Roberto Hernandez, David Huff, TJ McFarland, TJ House and Giovanny Soto to fill the other two slots IF we get one starter.
The bullpen is solid with Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and now Cody Allen on the right side and Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez and maybe Nick Hagadone and Scott Barnes on the left side. Plus, we have enough depth in the minors and our ML periphery to cover a lot of injuries. Frank Herrman and Esmil Rodgers might find themselves. The loser of the 4th/5th starter race could be the long man. Guys like Langwell, Sturdevant, Chen Lee and even Hector Ambriz, Shawn Armstrong and Rob Bryson could help at some point next year.
We need some hitters. Right now we are looking like this:
DH - Hole
C - Santana
1B - Huge hole
2B - Kipnis
SS - Cabrera
3B - Chisenhall
LF - Hole
CF - Brantley
RF - Choo
Bench - Marson, Donald, Phelps and Fedroff or Carrera
We have some depth in the minors with Juan Diaz, Matt LaPorta, Chun Chen, the loser of Fedroff/Carrera.
But we need some bats, particularly at DH, 1B and LF.
What don't you see on this proposed roster: AAAA guys and guys heading the direction of being AAAA guys. What you also see is young players on the bench and in the bullpen backed up by young players.
We need 3 bats and one arm. Could we get by with 2 bats and one arm? Sure, if one of our young guys can hit enough to play LF. Could we get by with one bat and one arm, probably not. We have too many question marks in our lineup to make that happen.
So, there you have it. Even if you don't count injuries you need, at minimum 2 bats and a starting pitcher. The positions they will play are not premium ones, DH, 1B and LF. But you need them to be able to hit lefty and righty pitching well.
Plus, we are a small market club. We need to sign free agents and NOT trade prospects. It is questionable whether a small market club should EVER trade prospects for veterans and even more questionable for this team to do that. We need to sign free agents.
Unfortunately, the available free agents are mostly pathetic, long-shot gambles.
DH - David Ortiz will be too expensive, Bobby Abreu, Raul Ibanez, Luke Scott and others may be past their primes.
1B - Mike Napoli, Lance Berkmann, Carlos Lee and James Loney. Napoli might be out of our price range, Berkmann will want to stay in St. Louis and Lee and Loney have had HUGE power drops this year but probably are looking for huge paydays. .
OF - Shane Victorino, Torii Hunter, Michael Bourn, Melky Cabrera and even Delmon Young might be options.
SP - There are so many options it isn't even worth listing them. There are probably about 25 veteran starting pitchers making this a buyer's market. From that group we have to be able to come up with one, solid guy.
So, where would I invest: 1B, DH and starting pitcher. I would gamble we could produce enough in LF if we get good DH and 1B production.
So there you have it. There are bodies out there that shouldn't cost you a huge amount of money and I think we could come up with a 1B or DH type. I would love to see Napoli and Victorino on this team along with a veteran starting pitcher. If we could add a decent DH that would be great. The cost of these guys? Well, I am looking at $24 million a year for 3 years for three of them or $32 a year for 3 threes for 4 of them. I see that as doable, even in Cleveland. With 3 of these guys we keep our payroll a tad below the 2012 level. With 4 we go over that level a little but are more solid.
So there you have it. It's time for Dolan to spend money. I have never been one of the Dolan is cheap people but the time is right. There will be non-compensation free agents galore out there and we should be able to sign 3 or 4 of them and not kill our budget.
We can win next year. We can sign multiple veteran FAs this winter to help us do that. We just need to be smarter than we were last year when we lost out on Beltran and Willingham.
And, for the umpteenth time, make your bench out of young players. Save money and develop guys, too.
The time is right. Let's go for it in 2013.
But we have to watch how we spend money. We have to be very careful.
Our starting pitching right now is Masterson, Jimenez and then a bunch of question marks. The good news is we have so many guys who can fill those question mark roles that we only need one guy the equivalent of Masterson to be competitive. Look, when we had Derek Lowe we were winning because he was pitching. If we get one decent starter, we can win. We have Jeanmar Gomez, Zach McAllister, Corey Kluber, Josh Tomlin and maybe Scott Barnes, Roberto Hernandez, David Huff, TJ McFarland, TJ House and Giovanny Soto to fill the other two slots IF we get one starter.
The bullpen is solid with Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and now Cody Allen on the right side and Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez and maybe Nick Hagadone and Scott Barnes on the left side. Plus, we have enough depth in the minors and our ML periphery to cover a lot of injuries. Frank Herrman and Esmil Rodgers might find themselves. The loser of the 4th/5th starter race could be the long man. Guys like Langwell, Sturdevant, Chen Lee and even Hector Ambriz, Shawn Armstrong and Rob Bryson could help at some point next year.
We need some hitters. Right now we are looking like this:
DH - Hole
C - Santana
1B - Huge hole
2B - Kipnis
SS - Cabrera
3B - Chisenhall
LF - Hole
CF - Brantley
RF - Choo
Bench - Marson, Donald, Phelps and Fedroff or Carrera
We have some depth in the minors with Juan Diaz, Matt LaPorta, Chun Chen, the loser of Fedroff/Carrera.
But we need some bats, particularly at DH, 1B and LF.
What don't you see on this proposed roster: AAAA guys and guys heading the direction of being AAAA guys. What you also see is young players on the bench and in the bullpen backed up by young players.
We need 3 bats and one arm. Could we get by with 2 bats and one arm? Sure, if one of our young guys can hit enough to play LF. Could we get by with one bat and one arm, probably not. We have too many question marks in our lineup to make that happen.
So, there you have it. Even if you don't count injuries you need, at minimum 2 bats and a starting pitcher. The positions they will play are not premium ones, DH, 1B and LF. But you need them to be able to hit lefty and righty pitching well.
Plus, we are a small market club. We need to sign free agents and NOT trade prospects. It is questionable whether a small market club should EVER trade prospects for veterans and even more questionable for this team to do that. We need to sign free agents.
Unfortunately, the available free agents are mostly pathetic, long-shot gambles.
DH - David Ortiz will be too expensive, Bobby Abreu, Raul Ibanez, Luke Scott and others may be past their primes.
1B - Mike Napoli, Lance Berkmann, Carlos Lee and James Loney. Napoli might be out of our price range, Berkmann will want to stay in St. Louis and Lee and Loney have had HUGE power drops this year but probably are looking for huge paydays. .
OF - Shane Victorino, Torii Hunter, Michael Bourn, Melky Cabrera and even Delmon Young might be options.
SP - There are so many options it isn't even worth listing them. There are probably about 25 veteran starting pitchers making this a buyer's market. From that group we have to be able to come up with one, solid guy.
So, where would I invest: 1B, DH and starting pitcher. I would gamble we could produce enough in LF if we get good DH and 1B production.
So there you have it. There are bodies out there that shouldn't cost you a huge amount of money and I think we could come up with a 1B or DH type. I would love to see Napoli and Victorino on this team along with a veteran starting pitcher. If we could add a decent DH that would be great. The cost of these guys? Well, I am looking at $24 million a year for 3 years for three of them or $32 a year for 3 threes for 4 of them. I see that as doable, even in Cleveland. With 3 of these guys we keep our payroll a tad below the 2012 level. With 4 we go over that level a little but are more solid.
So there you have it. It's time for Dolan to spend money. I have never been one of the Dolan is cheap people but the time is right. There will be non-compensation free agents galore out there and we should be able to sign 3 or 4 of them and not kill our budget.
We can win next year. We can sign multiple veteran FAs this winter to help us do that. We just need to be smarter than we were last year when we lost out on Beltran and Willingham.
And, for the umpteenth time, make your bench out of young players. Save money and develop guys, too.
The time is right. Let's go for it in 2013.
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
When you shop at the yen store this is what you get!
Sorry for the use of foreign currency but I didn't want to infringe on any trademarks.
Deep discount. Yep, how's that workin' for us?
We are now 10 games under .500 and have moved into 10th place for next year's draft. While the latter is good the former makes you wonder why we wasted the following:
$480,000 on Aaron Cunningham. You know, it would have been better if the guy had never played in the majors. But he sucked. He had one good stretch out of 4 years. He sucked. Why we wasted this money on him is beyond me.
$3 million on Casey Kotchman - Yeah, he can catch the ball. He can't hit for crap but he can catch the ball. Not eactly worth $3 million. I would rather see LaPorta flail
$1.135 million for Jack Hannahan - See Kotchman. I can actually stomach this one a little more as the guy can REALLY catch the ball and gives you more offense, although that is an extremely relative team because he stinks with the bat, too.
$1.25 millon on Johnny Damon - Waste of time. Carrera had it all over this guy from the get-go
$800,000 on Jose Lopez - The #2 poster child (after Cunningham) for AAAA guy over ML-ready prospect choices the FO continues to make, has now been DFA'd.
$5 million on Derek Lowe - This was actually the best waste of money the Indians had this year. If we knew McAllister could pitch this well consistently the Lowe trade would have been an extreme waste of money. But we didn't. Lowe was a good, solid, half-season pick up. Unfortunately we didn't trade him soon enough.
$500,000 for Shelly Duncan - Yeah, he's my whipping boy and I just don't like him and I think he is a AAAA guy. But at least he was a better investment than Kotchman and Slowey and more needed than Lopez.
$1.5 million on Kevin Slowey - The thing that hurts worse than the money here is the loss of a real prospect for a guy who has alternated between "suck" and "hurt" the last two years.
Now, admittedly, you have to factor in $400,000 for each of those guys except for Slowey but we invested $13.5 million at the yen store and, even factoring in $2.8 million or so we would have had to pay their 7 minor league replacements.
I predicted something like 70-92 this year. Antonnetti said they probably overestimated the talent we had when we were in spring traing. Well that overestimation cost us over $10 million and prospects like Cory Burns, Zach Putnam and Josh Judy.
Looking back, wouldn't you rather have seen LaPorta instead of Kotchman, Donald instead of Lopez, Carrera instead of Cunningham and so on for the whole season. Yeah, we would have taken a different path to where we will end up, record-wise, but the endpoint would have been roughly the same.
But that's been my theme all along: When you are as questionable as the Indians are you don't overpay for bench players. You play out your season with young, inexpensive bench players. Yeah, they may struggle as bench players, but, duh, so will the AAAA trash you are throwing out on the field.
It's time to change the paradigm...or the front office staff. I am SICK of this endless parade of AAAA guys while prospects rot in the minors and, on two week trials, are deemed non-major leaguers while the AAAA guys have already proven that over many years and STILL we give them chances.
This is how you turn into the KC Royals but without the high draft choices.
It needs to stop and now. Our only hope for the above AAAA guys is that someone else is more stupid than us and does a Kearns-for-McAllister-like desperation trade this month.
Otherwise, just more crap thrown against the wall that didn't stick...and while our prospects rot in the minors and lose confidence.
I have been saying this stuff for years. It's time someone tried a different approach.
Deep discount. Yep, how's that workin' for us?
We are now 10 games under .500 and have moved into 10th place for next year's draft. While the latter is good the former makes you wonder why we wasted the following:
$480,000 on Aaron Cunningham. You know, it would have been better if the guy had never played in the majors. But he sucked. He had one good stretch out of 4 years. He sucked. Why we wasted this money on him is beyond me.
$3 million on Casey Kotchman - Yeah, he can catch the ball. He can't hit for crap but he can catch the ball. Not eactly worth $3 million. I would rather see LaPorta flail
$1.135 million for Jack Hannahan - See Kotchman. I can actually stomach this one a little more as the guy can REALLY catch the ball and gives you more offense, although that is an extremely relative team because he stinks with the bat, too.
$1.25 millon on Johnny Damon - Waste of time. Carrera had it all over this guy from the get-go
$800,000 on Jose Lopez - The #2 poster child (after Cunningham) for AAAA guy over ML-ready prospect choices the FO continues to make, has now been DFA'd.
$5 million on Derek Lowe - This was actually the best waste of money the Indians had this year. If we knew McAllister could pitch this well consistently the Lowe trade would have been an extreme waste of money. But we didn't. Lowe was a good, solid, half-season pick up. Unfortunately we didn't trade him soon enough.
$500,000 for Shelly Duncan - Yeah, he's my whipping boy and I just don't like him and I think he is a AAAA guy. But at least he was a better investment than Kotchman and Slowey and more needed than Lopez.
$1.5 million on Kevin Slowey - The thing that hurts worse than the money here is the loss of a real prospect for a guy who has alternated between "suck" and "hurt" the last two years.
Now, admittedly, you have to factor in $400,000 for each of those guys except for Slowey but we invested $13.5 million at the yen store and, even factoring in $2.8 million or so we would have had to pay their 7 minor league replacements.
I predicted something like 70-92 this year. Antonnetti said they probably overestimated the talent we had when we were in spring traing. Well that overestimation cost us over $10 million and prospects like Cory Burns, Zach Putnam and Josh Judy.
Looking back, wouldn't you rather have seen LaPorta instead of Kotchman, Donald instead of Lopez, Carrera instead of Cunningham and so on for the whole season. Yeah, we would have taken a different path to where we will end up, record-wise, but the endpoint would have been roughly the same.
But that's been my theme all along: When you are as questionable as the Indians are you don't overpay for bench players. You play out your season with young, inexpensive bench players. Yeah, they may struggle as bench players, but, duh, so will the AAAA trash you are throwing out on the field.
It's time to change the paradigm...or the front office staff. I am SICK of this endless parade of AAAA guys while prospects rot in the minors and, on two week trials, are deemed non-major leaguers while the AAAA guys have already proven that over many years and STILL we give them chances.
This is how you turn into the KC Royals but without the high draft choices.
It needs to stop and now. Our only hope for the above AAAA guys is that someone else is more stupid than us and does a Kearns-for-McAllister-like desperation trade this month.
Otherwise, just more crap thrown against the wall that didn't stick...and while our prospects rot in the minors and lose confidence.
I have been saying this stuff for years. It's time someone tried a different approach.
Sunday, August 5, 2012
Not sayin' , just sayin'
Zeke Carrera now has 7 hits in 3 games. The most hits Aaron Cunningham had in a MONTH this season was 9. Carrera already has more extra base hits in three games than Cunningham had in any MONTH this year.
Carerra can also play all three OF positions at least as well as Cunningham.
Carrera can also steal you a base.
Not sayin', just sayin'.
And if you don't want to consider Cunningham who hits right-handed (Carrera hits lefty) then let's talk about Johnny Damon.
Carerra can also play all three OF positions at least as well as Cunningham.
Carrera can also steal you a base.
Not sayin', just sayin'.
And if you don't want to consider Cunningham who hits right-handed (Carrera hits lefty) then let's talk about Johnny Damon.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Never too early to start thinking about the 2013 draft
OK, the Indians are still playing baseball, right? Well, that is up for debate, given their 7 game losing streak.
About this time of year, however, I start thinking about next year's baseball draft and where the Indians are going to be drafting. I mean, Baseball America has already put out their top 50 draft prospect list for 2013!!!!!
MLB Trade Rumors posts a reverse standings so you can follow your favorite team in free fall to a high draft pick next year.
Right now, the Indians stand 11th in bad records this year:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings2012
Given that
Manny Acta is a much worse manager in the second half ,
and the Indians are slowly clearing out veterans, they have a decent chance to have one of the 10 worst records in baseball this year.
Why is one of the 10 worst records important? Because it guarantees that the Indians won't lose their first round pick if they sign a top tier free agent this winter.
But there is a catch with the new collective bargaining agreement. In the past if a team signed a Type A free agent they lost a draft pick. Under the new CBA the current compensation system for losing "Type A" and "Type B" free agents will be eliminated. Instead, teams will receive compensation for losing a free agent only if they offer -- and the player rejects -- a guaranteed one-year contract equal to the average salary of the league's 125 highest-paid players. Compensation for losing such players will consist of one Draft pick at the end of the first round. When clubs sign a compensation-eligible player, they will forfeit their own first-round selection, or their second-round selection if they pick in the top 10. Also, the player CAN'T have been traded during the 2012 season or they are ineligible for free agent compensation if they are signed by another team.
It turns out that the top 125 salaries is not a very high bar for a one-year contract as the 125th highest salary for 2013 is only going to be about $7 millions, less than our option of Roberto Hernandez (nee Fausto Carmona) next year.
Looking at the Free agents this winter the following players either have options or look like they would probably get a $7 million plus one year offer" AND they haven't been traded this year, yet.
Brian McCann C
Lance Berkmann 1B
James Loney 1B
Mike Napoli 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Stephen Drew SS
Johnny Peralta SS
David Wright 3B
Curtis Granderson OF
Michael Bourn OF
David Ortiz DH
About 15 starting pitchers ($7 millions buys you a Fausto Carmona/Derek Lowe type free agent starting pitcher)
About 5 relief pitchers ($7 million buys you a good closer or a top of the heap 8th inning guy)
So over 30 players will be likely to be offered a $7 million plus one year deal by their current clubs AND be eligible for FA compensation as a result. That still leaves a lot of free agents to sign but does skim off the top of the group, some of whom probably would not have qualified as Type A free agents, had the previous system been used again..
While the Indians won't play for Wright or Granderson or any of the top FA pitchers, they might make a play for a second tier guy who would require them to lose maybe their first round pick.
Thus, finishing in the bottom 10 records is SOMEWHAT important but, for a small market team with a low budget who MIGHT sign one of these top 30 free agents, but not nearly as important as it will be for teams like Philadelphia, Toronto, Milwaukee and the NY Mets, all of whom want to be contenders next year and so will probably be big players in the FA market this winter and most likely WILL sign one or more of these top 30 guys away from their current team. If they can sign top free agents and keep a top 10 draft pick, they will want to do that, especially, I think, teams like Milwaukee who like to straddle the content/rebuild fence every year. If one of these larger market/perennial contender teams end up with the 11th worst record in baseball, losing that 11th pick next year (and maybe the 11th pick in the second round if they sign two compensation free agents) could be a hard pill to swallow.
So this year, more than ever, protecting your first round pick is very important. The only way to do that is to finish badly in the standings. The Indians are clearly in a downward spiral that should put them in the bottom 10 by the end of the season and can sign many free agents who are decent and won't require compensation. For a small market team this is right where you want to be: protected first round draft choice, extra pick at the end of the second round in case you sign a compensation free agent. The only downside is that signing a compensation free agent would probably make the Indians take a slot signable guy in the first round as, if they go big with a bonus in the first round, they have one less draft pick (or more) to low ball later on to make up that difference. What you want is EXTRA draft picks that you can go a little under slot with so you can sign more hard-to-sign guys at the top and later in the draft. Plus, the higher the draft slot the more pronounced the money you can have to sign that pick.
For me, the Indians should stick to 2nd tier, non-compensation free agents this winter and overspend to get the best (sort of what, in hindsight, they should have done with Josh Willingham this past winter) of them.
They should get a high pick, protect it in the first and second rounds and end up with 3 picks before the third round.
This will be unpopular with the fans who will want one of those top 30 guys but I think the Indians can do just as well feeding from the middle of the lake if they go for the highest tier of those middling guys.
So there you have it. My first 2013 draft article. Such is the life of a Cleveland Indians' fan:
"WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR.....'S DRAFT"
About this time of year, however, I start thinking about next year's baseball draft and where the Indians are going to be drafting. I mean, Baseball America has already put out their top 50 draft prospect list for 2013!!!!!
MLB Trade Rumors posts a reverse standings so you can follow your favorite team in free fall to a high draft pick next year.
Right now, the Indians stand 11th in bad records this year:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings2012
Given that
Manny Acta is a much worse manager in the second half ,
and the Indians are slowly clearing out veterans, they have a decent chance to have one of the 10 worst records in baseball this year.
Why is one of the 10 worst records important? Because it guarantees that the Indians won't lose their first round pick if they sign a top tier free agent this winter.
But there is a catch with the new collective bargaining agreement. In the past if a team signed a Type A free agent they lost a draft pick. Under the new CBA the current compensation system for losing "Type A" and "Type B" free agents will be eliminated. Instead, teams will receive compensation for losing a free agent only if they offer -- and the player rejects -- a guaranteed one-year contract equal to the average salary of the league's 125 highest-paid players. Compensation for losing such players will consist of one Draft pick at the end of the first round. When clubs sign a compensation-eligible player, they will forfeit their own first-round selection, or their second-round selection if they pick in the top 10. Also, the player CAN'T have been traded during the 2012 season or they are ineligible for free agent compensation if they are signed by another team.
It turns out that the top 125 salaries is not a very high bar for a one-year contract as the 125th highest salary for 2013 is only going to be about $7 millions, less than our option of Roberto Hernandez (nee Fausto Carmona) next year.
Looking at the Free agents this winter the following players either have options or look like they would probably get a $7 million plus one year offer" AND they haven't been traded this year, yet.
Brian McCann C
Lance Berkmann 1B
James Loney 1B
Mike Napoli 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Stephen Drew SS
Johnny Peralta SS
David Wright 3B
Curtis Granderson OF
Michael Bourn OF
David Ortiz DH
About 15 starting pitchers ($7 millions buys you a Fausto Carmona/Derek Lowe type free agent starting pitcher)
About 5 relief pitchers ($7 million buys you a good closer or a top of the heap 8th inning guy)
So over 30 players will be likely to be offered a $7 million plus one year deal by their current clubs AND be eligible for FA compensation as a result. That still leaves a lot of free agents to sign but does skim off the top of the group, some of whom probably would not have qualified as Type A free agents, had the previous system been used again..
While the Indians won't play for Wright or Granderson or any of the top FA pitchers, they might make a play for a second tier guy who would require them to lose maybe their first round pick.
Thus, finishing in the bottom 10 records is SOMEWHAT important but, for a small market team with a low budget who MIGHT sign one of these top 30 free agents, but not nearly as important as it will be for teams like Philadelphia, Toronto, Milwaukee and the NY Mets, all of whom want to be contenders next year and so will probably be big players in the FA market this winter and most likely WILL sign one or more of these top 30 guys away from their current team. If they can sign top free agents and keep a top 10 draft pick, they will want to do that, especially, I think, teams like Milwaukee who like to straddle the content/rebuild fence every year. If one of these larger market/perennial contender teams end up with the 11th worst record in baseball, losing that 11th pick next year (and maybe the 11th pick in the second round if they sign two compensation free agents) could be a hard pill to swallow.
So this year, more than ever, protecting your first round pick is very important. The only way to do that is to finish badly in the standings. The Indians are clearly in a downward spiral that should put them in the bottom 10 by the end of the season and can sign many free agents who are decent and won't require compensation. For a small market team this is right where you want to be: protected first round draft choice, extra pick at the end of the second round in case you sign a compensation free agent. The only downside is that signing a compensation free agent would probably make the Indians take a slot signable guy in the first round as, if they go big with a bonus in the first round, they have one less draft pick (or more) to low ball later on to make up that difference. What you want is EXTRA draft picks that you can go a little under slot with so you can sign more hard-to-sign guys at the top and later in the draft. Plus, the higher the draft slot the more pronounced the money you can have to sign that pick.
For me, the Indians should stick to 2nd tier, non-compensation free agents this winter and overspend to get the best (sort of what, in hindsight, they should have done with Josh Willingham this past winter) of them.
They should get a high pick, protect it in the first and second rounds and end up with 3 picks before the third round.
This will be unpopular with the fans who will want one of those top 30 guys but I think the Indians can do just as well feeding from the middle of the lake if they go for the highest tier of those middling guys.
So there you have it. My first 2013 draft article. Such is the life of a Cleveland Indians' fan:
"WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR.....'S DRAFT"
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Now that the season is over....
Well, we stood pat at the deadline, sort of. I applaud the non-effort by the Indians. The only people they have given up are Steven Wright and Derek Lowe, neither of whom were likely to factor into 2013.
The trade of Wright to Boston for Lars Anderson was a strange one. Wright was once a top draft choice but couldn't shake the injury and lack of performance bug. He was still in the Indians' organization because he became a gimmick (i.e., knuckleball) pitcher. He was prospect depth. Anderson, on the other hand, was a falling star, a top prospect turned prospect depth. This is the kind of nothing trade where you think one team (the Indians) got a guy with an outside chance of resurrecting his career while the other team (Boston) got a smoke and mirrors guy. Sometimes, those are the kind of trades that bite you in the rear end. Time will tell but my guess is that the best we can hope for here is a nothing trade.
Besides that little trade all we got was the DFA of Lowe. He has flamed out in the second half of the season and his trade value is only a shade better than that of Aaron Cunningham and that difference is only because Lowe is a pitcher who has had some success. Unlike the Indians, I would have put Lowe in the bullpen about a week ago to try to find a way to up his worth in anticipation of a deadline or August deal. Let's hope the Indians can get something for him but it was time for him to not start any more games in Cleveland.
So, the Indians stood pat, which was good, but now it is time to make some moves. With the season being over here is what we should do:
Jose Lopez gone, Jason Donald called up - Look, Donald has a whole bunch of AAA at bats. Lopez may bring us a couple of bucks or a "C" prospect back. Remember, Austin Kearns got us Zach McAllister.
Jack Hanahan gone, Jared Goedert called up - You know your season is done when you are getting rid of Hannahan's stellar defense for a shot in the dark with Goedert. But, what the heck. Hannahan is showing his sub-.250 career average and his defense, in a rebuilding last two months, is not needed. Jared may go the way of his of his anagram Jerad (Head, that is) but at least he deserves that shot. Hannahan might actually net us something as his defense might be what an NL contender needs down the stretch. It seems the small guys net the biggest % net return in these July/August deals.
Casey Kotchman gone, Matt LaPorta called up. Yes, now we have NO defense at the corners of the infield but Kotchman is showing us why 2011 was a fluke. The best that we can hope for is that we get someone to pay the rest of Kotchman's salary and that LaPorta suddenly finds himself. But you play guys like LaPorta when the season goes south like this one has.
Accardo gone, Rafael Perez up. Yes, I know this depends on Perez's health but it is time we see the last of Accardo. Yeah, he has pitched decently but, in rebuilding two months, you don't need the Accardos of the world.
Shelly Duncan gone, Tim Fedroff up. Again, maybe Fedroff is nothing but he is at least up here.
Johnny Damon gone, Chun-Hsui Chen called up. I give this guy a look. Maybe you catch lightning in a bottle and you find he can actually skip AAA (or most of it) and give you some offense here early next year if not on opening day.
Travis Hafner gone, Zeke Carrera up. This balances the OF with Chen replacing Damon. Look, Hafner gets you a "C" prospect if you are willing to eat his salary. If not, maybe you get a little salary relief as the team he goes to picks up $1-2 million. I eat the salary and get the prospect.
So, what do you expect to get for this fringe talent? Probably not much. Unfortunately it might be hard to bundle these guys but, if you could, I would as it might get us better prospects in return.
I don't care how many games we lose the rest of the season. Neither does most of Cleveland as the attendance sucks here, win or lose. Maybe Chen, Fedroff, Carrera, Raffy Perez, Goedert, LaPorta and Donald contribute zero in 2013. If so, they won't do any worse than the guys we trade/release to give them playing time right now.
OK, Indians, NOW is the time to make some moves. Moves toward next season, that is. Get guys some needed experience, clear out some dead wood, give yourself a little salary relief, start planning for next season because you can stick a fork in 2012 and it will come out clearn as a whistle.
The trade of Wright to Boston for Lars Anderson was a strange one. Wright was once a top draft choice but couldn't shake the injury and lack of performance bug. He was still in the Indians' organization because he became a gimmick (i.e., knuckleball) pitcher. He was prospect depth. Anderson, on the other hand, was a falling star, a top prospect turned prospect depth. This is the kind of nothing trade where you think one team (the Indians) got a guy with an outside chance of resurrecting his career while the other team (Boston) got a smoke and mirrors guy. Sometimes, those are the kind of trades that bite you in the rear end. Time will tell but my guess is that the best we can hope for here is a nothing trade.
Besides that little trade all we got was the DFA of Lowe. He has flamed out in the second half of the season and his trade value is only a shade better than that of Aaron Cunningham and that difference is only because Lowe is a pitcher who has had some success. Unlike the Indians, I would have put Lowe in the bullpen about a week ago to try to find a way to up his worth in anticipation of a deadline or August deal. Let's hope the Indians can get something for him but it was time for him to not start any more games in Cleveland.
So, the Indians stood pat, which was good, but now it is time to make some moves. With the season being over here is what we should do:
Jose Lopez gone, Jason Donald called up - Look, Donald has a whole bunch of AAA at bats. Lopez may bring us a couple of bucks or a "C" prospect back. Remember, Austin Kearns got us Zach McAllister.
Jack Hanahan gone, Jared Goedert called up - You know your season is done when you are getting rid of Hannahan's stellar defense for a shot in the dark with Goedert. But, what the heck. Hannahan is showing his sub-.250 career average and his defense, in a rebuilding last two months, is not needed. Jared may go the way of his of his anagram Jerad (Head, that is) but at least he deserves that shot. Hannahan might actually net us something as his defense might be what an NL contender needs down the stretch. It seems the small guys net the biggest % net return in these July/August deals.
Casey Kotchman gone, Matt LaPorta called up. Yes, now we have NO defense at the corners of the infield but Kotchman is showing us why 2011 was a fluke. The best that we can hope for is that we get someone to pay the rest of Kotchman's salary and that LaPorta suddenly finds himself. But you play guys like LaPorta when the season goes south like this one has.
Accardo gone, Rafael Perez up. Yes, I know this depends on Perez's health but it is time we see the last of Accardo. Yeah, he has pitched decently but, in rebuilding two months, you don't need the Accardos of the world.
Shelly Duncan gone, Tim Fedroff up. Again, maybe Fedroff is nothing but he is at least up here.
Johnny Damon gone, Chun-Hsui Chen called up. I give this guy a look. Maybe you catch lightning in a bottle and you find he can actually skip AAA (or most of it) and give you some offense here early next year if not on opening day.
Travis Hafner gone, Zeke Carrera up. This balances the OF with Chen replacing Damon. Look, Hafner gets you a "C" prospect if you are willing to eat his salary. If not, maybe you get a little salary relief as the team he goes to picks up $1-2 million. I eat the salary and get the prospect.
So, what do you expect to get for this fringe talent? Probably not much. Unfortunately it might be hard to bundle these guys but, if you could, I would as it might get us better prospects in return.
I don't care how many games we lose the rest of the season. Neither does most of Cleveland as the attendance sucks here, win or lose. Maybe Chen, Fedroff, Carrera, Raffy Perez, Goedert, LaPorta and Donald contribute zero in 2013. If so, they won't do any worse than the guys we trade/release to give them playing time right now.
OK, Indians, NOW is the time to make some moves. Moves toward next season, that is. Get guys some needed experience, clear out some dead wood, give yourself a little salary relief, start planning for next season because you can stick a fork in 2012 and it will come out clearn as a whistle.
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