Thursday, January 25, 2024

The HOF Case For Julio Franco

 The Guardians got a young SS in the famous "Mr. 5 for 1" (Von Hayes) trade to Philadelphia in Dec. 1982.  A recent video I saw showed Franco, at age 65, taking some swings.  He looked very similar to how he looked, both physically and with his swing, as he did when he played in the majors.  

This reminded me of my feeling that Franco should be considered by a veteran's committee for induction into the MLB HOF.

Franco, who played until he was 48 years old, was not, at the time, the typical ML player who sought, each year, to play in the major leagues.  Franco, in a number of years, saw that he could make more money playing overseas than he could in the US, assuming that he had a major league (as opposed to a minor league contract with a spring invite).  He therefore missed playing in the majors in 1995, 1998, 1999 and 2000.

In looking over his stats, Franco had 2586 career hits in the seasons he did play in the majors.  If you apply conservative estimates for what he would have done in the US for the years he was abroad, Franco would have ended up with roughly:

BA: .298
Hits: 2943
Runs: 1477
RBI: 1352
2B: 456
3B: 57
HR: 205
BB: 1066
BB/SO: 1588
SB: 300

Looking at the 24 SS in the HOF, plus Franco, here are what his rankings would be:

BA: 5th
Hits: 5th
Runs: 6th
RBI: 6th
2B: 6th
3B: 23rd
HR: 5th
BB: 6th
BB/SO: 23rd
SB: 10th

Except for triples and BB/SO ratio, his offensive numbers look very comparable to HOF shortstops.

There are 2 kickers here, of course, one being that he was a full-time SS for only 5+ years of his career and, even then, was a below ave. defensive SS.  Comparisons from different time periods are difficult due to changes in gloves, astroturf vs grass, field upkeep improvements (e.g., different types of grass, in-ground sprinkler systems, etc.).  However, looking at the HOF SS, Franco probably would have been, at best, 22nd defensively on this list, even given that the list included Ernie Banks as a SS!

People can also claim that his stats were inflated by the advent of DH and, therefore, the ability for him to extend his career to his age 48 season.  Still, a number of HOFers  (including half a dozen shortstops) inflated their stats by playing into their 40s.  One example that comes to my mind is Early Wynn,  who had 29 of his 300 wins after he turned 40 and retired once he got to that magic number of 300.   To be fair, Franco, in his age 46-48 seasons, only totaled 129 of his hits, 10 of his HRs and 12 of his SBs.  

Still, beside the above, there are many other confounding circumstances that make it hard to do a direct comparison.  However, IMO, longevity should not be considered a detriment to HOF consideration.  It should be a plus, especially when the vast bulk of a player's production was made earlier in his career.  Add to this that he spent the majority of his career as a middle infielder and I think Franco has a case for induction into the HOF.

A final word: just looking at the most hits in ML baseball for a career, inclusion of these estimated numbers would put him 43rd place on the all-time hits list with only 6 players above him not in the HOF, with three of those, Pujols, Cabrera, Suzuki, likely 1st ballot HOFers and the other 3, Palmeiro, ARod, Rose, likely not to be elected due to other issues.

The Contemporary Era HOF Committee looks at players whose major contributions occurred after 1980.  Let's hope that committee will consider Julio Franco worthy to be inducted into the HOF at some point in the near future.  Don't know if he is a HOFer, but, for me, he is in the conversation.

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

Instant Analysis - 2024 International Signing Period

 Let's look at a comparison of Guardians international signing classes from 2017 to 2023 (Jan. 15, 2024).  This analysis is only superficial as I am not sure if I have all the information from all of these years as sometimes lower bonus signings were not reported or players were signed after the signing day all the way up to the end of the signing period.  

Highlights of 2023 (Jan 2024) signing period so far:

  • 26 players signed
  • $6.67 million of $7,114,800 budget spent leaving $444,800 remaining for other signings later in the signing period
  • 3 Cuban players signe
  • Position breakdown
    • 9 MIFers
    • 8 Pitchers
    • 7 OFers
    • 2 Catchers
  • Country breakdown
    • 14 Venezuela
    • 9 Dominican Republic
    • 3 Cuba
  • Bonus breakdown
    • $1.5 - 1.99 million - 1
    • $0.4-0.5 million - 2
    • $0.3-0.4 million - 2
    • $0.2-0.3 million - 4
    • $0.1-0.2 million - 3
    • <$0.1 million - 14

Let's compare this to previous seasons:

Spending:

  • In seasons 2017-2022 the Guardians spent: $3.7, $4.5, $3.5, $4.4, $3.9 and $5.9 million, respectively on their draft classes.
  • In 2017-2022 they signed the following # of players (may not be complete): 11,14,23,14,20,24, respectively.
  • In those years, they signed 2 players for > $1.5 million (2018,2019)
  • From 2017-2022 they signed:
    • 2,1,0,3,2,1 players, respectively, for between $1 and $1.49 million
    • 1 player in 2021 and 2 in 2022 for between $0.75 and $1 million.
    • 1 player in 2018 and 1 in 2020 for between $0.51 and $0.749 million
    • 1,1,2,1,1,0 players, respectively, for $0.4-0.5 million
    • 1,0,1,0,1,5 players, respectively for $0.3-0.4 million
    • 2 players in 2019 and 2 in 2022 for $0.2-0.3 million
    • 2 players in 2017, 3 players in 2019 and 3 players in 2022 $0.1-0.2 million
    • 5,10,12,9,15,11 players signed for bonuses of <$100,000
Countries in 2017-2022:

  • Cuba - 0 players signed
  • Venezuela - 6,4,11,6,12, 15
  • Dominican Republic - 5,9,9,7,7,8
  • Columbia - 1 (2018)
  • Panama - 0,0,2,1,1,1
  • Mexico - 0
  • Aruba - 0
  • Curacao - 0
  • Australia - 0
  • Europe - 0
  • Korea - 0
  • Japan - 0
Players signed & Positions in 2017-2022, respectively
  • Players signed - 11,14,23,14,20,24
  • MIF - 5,5,5,7,10,7
  • OF - 2,2,9,4,3,5
  • C - 3,0,1,1,2,4
  • P - 0.7.5.2.4.7
  • 1B - 1,0,2,0,0,0
  • 3B - 0,0,1,0,1,1
SUMMARY

Comparing 2017-2022 with what happened this year some trends emerge:
  • 1st year in a while signing Cuban FAs
  • Within normal range in terms of recruits from countries (except Cuba, of course)
  • Positional bias - Percentages at each position (relative to total signees) within normal ranges seen in 2017-2022.
  • Number of players signed: highest in 2023
  • Total bonuses paid: highest in 2023
  • Total number of players with bonuses over $100,000 - Much higher in 2022 and 2023 than in previous years.
  • Amount of money left unspent in bonus pool: highest in 2023
  • More players signed to over $100,000 bonuses than in past years except for 2022
It is really hard to tell what these numbers all mean.  Signing classes are generally pre-determined well before the signing day (the Guardians are already linked to 11 players for NEXT year's signing date).  There doesn't seem to be a huge trend in positions or countries from where players were signed.  Things like homerun potential seem to be on the upswing in 2022 and this year compared to previous years but how much of that will result is very hard to tell in players this age, although I think the trend is there.  There is certainly room to sign more players later in the year as we have the highest amount left in our pool since these pools were established.

All-in-all, it is hard to determine what a team is thinking in signing these guys.  Sometimes they might pick one player over another if they have if they want to placate a particular academy so they can get star players in the future.  Sometimes they might want to sign a player from a particular area or town because that area is trending up in terms of production of quality players and they want good publicity by having those players go home in the winter and show how much the Guardians have improved them and been a positive influence in their lives.   So, some of what is done is likely done for future recruiting but we have no way to tell how much.  

The three takeaways, then, from this class is that we dipped into the Cuban market, we signed, for the 2nd year in a row, a large number of players who got bonuses of over $100,000 and, finally, we still have almost $500,000 left in the bonus pool to sign other players.

Let's hope our scouts have done as good a job with this class as they did with the 2017 class.  Since we are Cleveland, we need that!







Friday, January 12, 2024

Guardians Philosophy About International Signing Day and Results and Learnings from Past Yeaers

January 15th is almost here.  Just outside of the 12 days of Christmas, for fans of the Cleveland Guardians this day represents a second Christmas, of sorts.  

This is the day when the Guardians announce their signing class for the 2023 international class. 

The Guardians have had tendencies in their international signings in recent years.  Here are some of the trends that I see:
  • Tend to avoid the really high-ticket prospects ($2-5+ million), choosing to sign maybe one guy for over $1 million and a number of guys for in the $100,000-$500,000 range.
  • Tend to sign mostly 16/17 year-old position players early and, recently, leaning toward signing older (18/19 yr olds) pitchers, sometimes later in the signing cycle.
  • Tend to stay within the boundaries of the rankings.  That is, don't GENERALLY give large bonuses to prospects who aren't in consensus rankings, although they have done that with generally disastrous results.
Specifically, let's look at their history in recent years:

2017 

One of the best international signing periods in Guardians' history, here were the high bonus prospects among the 21 players they signed (overall rank of prospect in the class in parentheses).

  • George Valera (#5) -$1.3 million
  • Aaron Bracho (#17)-$1.5 million
  • Jose Tena - $400,000
  • Alexfri Planez - $400,000
  • Wilfri Peralta - $300,000
  • Cesar Idrogo - $90,000
  • Marlin Made - $75,000
  • Brayan Rocchio - $125,000
  • Jhonkensy Noel - $100,000
While this is a ++ class in terms of what we have gotten out of it, note that Bracho's was only the 17th highest bonus out of this class with guys like Wander Franco ($3.8 milliion), Adolis Garcia ($2.5 million), Rony Mauricio ($2.1 million), Julio Rodriguez ($1.75 million, 15th highest bonus) ahead of him.  Valera had the 26th largest bonus and, after him, Planez and Tena were tied for 77th.   So, in this cycle, the Guardians dipped their toes a little into the deep end going for 2 players who were relatively expensive with, so far, mixed results but it looks like they really hit on the intermediate bonus prospects with the lower bonuses not working out.

NOTE: The Guardians spent all but $10,000 of their bonus pool in this cycle.  Bonuses of $10,000 or less did not count against the pool.

2018

The Guardians spent more at the high end in this cycle.  Here is a list of their top signees:
  • Gabriel Rodriguez (#8) - $2.1 million
  • Junior Sanquintin (#21) - $1.25 million
  • Sterling Romero - $650,000
  • Jesus Lara - $570,000
  • Angel Martinez (#39) - $500,000
  • Dayan Frias - $80,000
  • Luis Osto - $50,000
NOTE_ Cleveland used up $5.15 million of their $5.504 million pool to sign these 7 players.  I can't find a list of all their signees from this class but my guess is that this was a small class due to how they front-loaded this first 7.

2019

  • Jose Pastrano (#25) - $1.5 million
  • Luis Durango Jr. - $500,000
  • Kenny Pinto - $100,000
  • Jose Devers - $450,000
  • Lexer Saduy
  • Esteban Gonzalez
  • Yorman Gomez
  • Maick Collado
  • Juan Benjamin

NOTE: The Guardians signed 43 prospects using $4.861 million of their $4.981 million pool.  Jasson Dominguez signed with NYY for $5.1 million, Robert Puason for $5.1 million, Bayron Lora for $4.2 million, 

2020 (January 15, 2021)

This class  (17 players) was supposed to be signed on July 2, 2020 but, due to COVID, was pushed back to what has become the current date of January 15th, in 2021.  Here are the players with the most significant bonuses.

  • Angel Genao (#23) - $1.175 million
  • Fran Alduey (#25) - $1.2 million
  • Robert Lopez - $530,000
  • Yelfri Rivera - $500,000
  • Christopher Espinola - $100,000

NOTE: Jackson Chourio was ranked #18 and signed for $1.8 million

2021 (January 15, 2022) - 20 players signed 

  • Jaison Chourio (#20) - $1.2 million
  • Victor Izturis (#40) - $1.15 million
  • Rafael Ramirez Jr. - $800,000
  • Yorfran John - $425,000 
  • Alberto Mendes - $320,000

2022 (january 15, 2023) - 24 signings for $10,000 or more

  • Welbyn Francisca (#28) - $1.375 million
  • Yerlin Luis (#37) - $850,000
  • Jose Marcano - $800,000
  • Pablo Arosemena - $375,000
  • Luis Merejo - $340,000
  • Juan Frances - $320,000
  • Jose Pirela - $320,000
  • Jonathon Martinez - $300,000
  • Yaikel Mijares - $275,000
  • Heibert Silva - $250,000
  • Jonathon Taveras - $175,000
  • Jhorvic Abreus - $125,000
  • Ergaldi Perez - $110,000

NOTE: As you can see, the Guardians spread the money around big-time last year.  Notably, just like with Sterling Romero before, they spent a lot of money on Jose Marcano even though he wasn't among the top 50 international prospects of this class.   Decent returns have been seen so far with this class as Francisca is a top 30 prospect with Luis, Pirela and Merejo pushing the top 40/

2023 (January 2024) - 26 players will be signed

NOTE: Like 2022, it looks like the Guardians will spread the money around with only 1 player listed in MLB Pipeline's Top 50 International Signing Day Prospects with that same player being the only one signed for over $1 million.  Here's the list with anticipated bonuses being provided by Guardians Prospective Twitter.
  • Roberto Arias (#13 prospect) - $1.9 million
  • Hiverson Lopez - $900 K (NOTE: Sorry, Lopez is a 2024 (Jan 2025) potential signee)
  • Miguel Flores - $500 K
  • Gabriel Rodriguez - $500 K
  • Estivel Morillo - $435 K
  • Luis Reyson De La Cruz - $430 K
  • Edelvis Perez - $415 K
  • Juneiker Caceres - $350 K
  • Johan Rodriguez - $325 K
  • Dauri Fernandez - $285 K
  • Randy Martinez - $275 K
  • Yeiferth Castillo - $225 K
  • Romer Taveras - $200 K
  • Santiago Uztaris - $150 K
  • Darial Arias - $115 K
  • Carlos Caripa - $105 K
  • Osmar Torrealba - $72 K
  • Hector Castillo - $70 K
  • Willyneyer Ardilles - $65 K
  • Steven Cruz - $60 K
  • Alejandro Rivera - $48 K
  • Wuinder Torres - $44 K
  • Eric Tovar - $23 K
  • Carlos Garces - $28 K
  • Raul Trujillo - $20 K
  • Delni Uribe - $20 K
  • Alejandro Blasco - $10 K
All players are now signed (thanks to Baseball Prospective X (formerly known as Baseball Prospective Twitter) for that information) - NOTE: By my estimation the Guardians will use $6.67 million of their $7.114800 million of their bonus pool, leaving them $444,800 left for signings in the future.

OK, so there it is.  It all comes down to how good the Guardians scouts and player development people are. Things may work out like 2017 but a lot of resources could be wasted if Roberto Arias turns out like Junaior Sanquintin or Jose Pastrano.  A cash-strapped franchise like the Guardians cannot weather repeated failures in the international signing area.  The Guardians can't buy their way out of their mistakes with free agents.  So, Cleveland needs to scout better, develop better and find all the hidden gems better in amateur talent (amateur draft and international free agents) than their large market colleagues.  

Let's hope 5 years from now we are saying they did that with their international class in 2024 just like we can look back today and say we did that well in 2017.



Sunday, January 7, 2024

2024 Draft - Part 3 - First thoughts about 1st Round Pick

 1st Round Pick

Every Guardians writer, blogger and serious fan has now started to think about the 2024 draft and that wonderful #1 overall pick. 

From examining previous drafts some things I think the Guardians should put on their draft room wall:
  • Draft the best available player, don't draft for need or away from the strength of the draft just because that strength is also the strength in your minor league system
  • Don't draft players who have to change positions for their value to be maximized
  • Don't draft players with any warts at all that you would have to fix for them to maximize their ability
  • Don't draft anyone with that 1st pick who has risen rapidly up the draft boards this year.

Given those provisos, there have been 3 names that have been most mentioned as the top pick in the draft who I feel should be real, and the only, contenders for that #1 pick.  Recent history has shown that, unless some injury disaster or performance cratering event happens with one or more of these top 3, our 2024 1st round pick should come from this group as every prospect below them has enough warts that even if they improve in 2024, there should be enough doubts about them to make their selection at #1 overall be impossible for the Guardians.  Just too much risk.  The three guys below have the track record and if they perform as expected this year before the draft, our #1 pick will have a huge likelihood, barring injury, of being a stud player, maybe even a perennial all-star.  The Guardians need to have blinders on and only look at these three.  If their gaze strays to the new, shiny thing that pops up this spring, we have a chance to blow the best draft pick this franchise may ever get.

So here are the guys and my thoughts on each of these top 3:

3. Travis Bazzana - He is a classic Guardians' pick.  Hit-over-power, LH hitting middle infielder with great contact skills, a little developing power and base stealing ability (see Juan Brito, for example).  The thing about Bazzana is that he is likely limited to second base. His bat makes him a top 5 pick but the comp that is being thrown around for him, Nick Madrigal, says it all.  The pluses make him a top 10, maybe even a top 5 pick, but not, in my book, a #1 overall pick.  He simply will not have enough impact.

2. Nick Kurtz - You want impact, Kurtz is your guy.  He has a plus-plus power tool and a plus hit tool and is a good defender.  The comp being thrown around for him should make every Guardians' fan salivate: Jim Thome.  Kurtz is also supposedly an excellent defender.  Kurtz only has one thing going against him: he is a first baseman.  He is also another LH hitter.  It is hard to imagine a team with two young LH hitting first basemen (Naylor and Manzardo) drafting another one if there was another player who was more versatile.  Some experts have said that Kurtz is athletic enough to play the outfield but think about that.  You have the #1 overall pick in the draft and you are going to draft a player because you THINK he might be able to be a passable OFer in the majors.  That is not a gamble thatt a team should take.   So, my guess right now is that the Guardians take Kurtz.  I think the Thome comp is too much to pass up although another comp that has been hung on Kurtz is Spencer Torkelson who had 70 power coming into the draft (Kurtz is 65).  Thinking about Torkelson I wonder if the Guardians will look elsewhere and they have to look no further than...

1. J. J. Wetherholt - You have to understand that most scouts don't give out 70 grades.  So when Wetherholt's hitting is hung with a 70 grade and the rest of his tools ooze athleticism and the ability to improve due to that athleticism, it makes one salivate.  The comp being hung on him is Chase Utley and I think he is just as likely to reach that comp as Kurtz is to make his comp of Thome.  The only difference is that Wetherholt has the position versatility to play at SS, 2B or maybe eventually, CF.  While I don't suggest drafting a player #1 overall who has to switch positions to maximze their value (see Kurtz above)  Wetherholt's position versatility makes him the safest choice for #1 overall.  I also believe that he will be cheaper than Kurtz as power is more of a premium to MLB teams than hitting.  However, the Guardians have felt the other way recently.  Sooooooo...

Other players have a chance to be selected #1 overall.  But each has their warts (e.g., Chase Burns' control), Charlie Condon (soph, only 60 or lower tools), Jac Caglianone (hitter/pitcher but not plus plus at either)).

So, I think it comes down to Kurtz or Wetherholt and I couldn't argue against either.   I just think Wetherholt is the most sure thing. The sad commentary here is that this is a relatively weak draft, even at the top, and the best players available at the top of the draft all play positions (1B/ MIFer) that are the two areas of greatest strength in the Guardians minor league system.  However, as I said before, when you have the #1 overall pick you have to take the best player available and can't waste that pick on a player with less ability or more warts just because you have a need for that other player.

Time will tell who that best player is, but I really am not sure we will get a Jackson Holliday, Dylan Crews or Paul Skenes out of our #1 pick in 2024.  But we are likely to get the best player the Guardians have ever gotten, at least at the time they are drafted.


Wednesday, January 3, 2024

2024 Draft - Part 2 - Believe Your Eyes - Don't Be Fooled By the Shiny New Thing!

Everybody likes the bright, shiny, new, next thing.  We can't help ourselves.  

From my 20+ years of experience with the draft here are 8 words after a draft prospect's name that make me scream and run the other direction:

"____ has been shooting up draft boards this spring"

I think it is from my experience with teams 'overdrafting' guys and how those guys rarely work out.  I did a study back in the early 2000s that looked at 5 years worth of drafting in the mid '90s and showed that in the first round, if you drafted guys who were rated 10 spots below where they were drafted they had a much lower chance of being successful in the majors.

Not that drafting guys that other teams have overlooked is a bad thing.  Guys from Mike Trout, Evan Carter and recently our very own Shane Bieber and Tanner Bibee have shown that sometimes teams can pick a guy who fits into their system and becomes so much more than others thought he could be.

But, generally, if a guy is rated highly in Dec./Jan. and is rated highly in June/July, he is a safe pick. 

Let's look at some recent examples:

2017 - Hunter Greene was #1 in Jan, #2 in June and went #1 overall.  Royce Lewis was #2 in Dec., #5 in June and was drafted #2 overall.  Brendan McKay was #5 in Dec., #4 in June and was drafted #2 overall.  Kyle Wright was #6 in Dec., #5 in June and drafted #3 overall.  Jaren Kendall was #4 in Dec. #23 in June and was drafted #6 overall.  MacKenzie Gore was #38 in Dec, #4 at draft time and was drafted #3 overall.  

2018 - Casey Mize was #1 in Jan, #1 in June and went #1 overall.  Nick Madrigal was #2 in Jan, #3 in June and went #4 overall.  Joey Bart was #9 in Jan, #6 in June and went #3 overall.  Alec Bohm was #3 in Jan, #7 in June and went #3 overall.  Jonathon India was #24 in Jan, #8 in June and went #5 overall. Brady Singer was #15 in Jan, #2 in June but went #18 overall.  Matthew Liberatore was #7 in Jan, #4 in June but went #16 overall.   Carter Stewart was #5 in Jan, #5 in June and went #8 overall.  Jared Kelenic was #8 in Jan, #10 in June and went #6 overall.    

2019 - Adley Rutschman was #1 in Dec., #1 in June and was drafted #1 overall.  Bobby Witt Jr. was #3 in Dec., 3, #2 in June and went #2 overall.  Andrew Vaughen was #2 in Dec., #3 in June and went #3 overall.  JJ Bleday was #15 in Dec., #5 in June and went #4 overall.  Riley Greene was #5 in Dec., #6 in June and went #5 overall.  CJ Abrams was #4 in Dec., #4 in June and went #6 overall.

2020 - We are starting to get into data that is incomplete in terms of professional performance but Spencer Torkelson was #2 in January, #1 in June and went #1 overall.  

2021 - Marcelo Mayer was #8 in Jan but #1 in June and went #4 overall.  Jordan Lawler was #2 in Jan, #3 in June and went #6 overall.  I am betting that other teams regret not picking Lawler and going with Henry Davis and Jack Leither 1-2, although Leiter was highly rated in June (#2) after being more lowly rated in Jan. (#7).  Davis was outside the top 10 in Jan, moved to #5 in June and went #1 overall.  

2022 - In 2022 Druw Jones was #1 in Jan and June and went #2 overall.  Jackson Holliday was #3 early on and #2/3 in June, and went #1 overall.  This, to me, was where scouting comes in.  Jones' hit tool was suspect but his overall package looked better.  Holliday's hit tool was excellent but there was some positional questions about him staying at SS or hitting for enough power to move to 3B.  Going for the advanced hit tool has seemed to work out for the Orioles but not so well up to now for the Diamondbacks with Jones.

2023 - Dylan Crews was #1 in Dec., #2 in June and went #2 overall.  Paul Skenes was #4 in Dec., #2 in June and went #1 overall.  It should be noted that Chase Dollander was #2 in Dec. but dropped like a rock due to poor performance.  Wyatt Langford was #3 in Dec., #3 in June and went #4 overall.  Max Clark was #6 in Dec., #5 in June and went #3 overall. This was a strong draft at the top and all of the top 10 guys in the draft might have great careers.  But, for me, the team with the #1 overall pick has to have blinders on.  When Dollander dropped it was always Skenes or Crews.  I would have gone with Crews but the lure of a #1, potential multi-time all-star SP is worth the gamble over a potential multi-time all-star corner outfielder, even if the latter had Mike Trout offensive upside.  Still, if it was me, I would have gone for the more sure thing and drafted Crews who was solid from start to finish in his draft year.  The slight rise in Skenes would have been the decider against him, at least for me.

Looking at this list the guys who were near the top in Dec. generally stayed near the top in June and were drafted near the top.  For the most part, these guys were the top performers comng out of the 1st round of these three drafts, although that is not to say they were eventual stars. 

So, if I am a Guardians draftnik, I am paying as much attention to the ratings in January as I am in June.  While the June ratings are the most up-to-date, they also favor guys who are the shiny new thing, or fast risers, as they are also called.  I think data shows that while drafting fast riser guys CAN work, you are safer drafting guys who have been considered top prospects for at least a year, especially early in the first round.  Those guys were at the top of draft prospect lists in Jan. and again in June are also likely to be big successes, although injury, more than performance, can take a top-of-the-top prospect down.

So, Guardians, your job is pretty simple.  Look at the best guys now and if they are still the best guys pick the best of them on draft day...and don't get suckered into taking the new, shiny thing who pops up on the boards in the spring of 2024.