Congratulations to Gianpaul Gonzalez but WTF????????

 We needed a catcher, I get it.   But let's talk:

Background:  We don't have a catcher currently on the 40-man roster that we could add.   Perez is still in rehab protocol and Ramos is done for the year.   So we need to add a catcher NOT on the 40-man roster right now.   We have three ways we can go here:

(a) Bring up someone from the minors who we are not afraid to DFA later when Roberto comes back or at the end of the season.   We did that with Lavarnway before and it worked out.   He did a decent job playing for us AND he snuck through waivers and agreed to stay with Columbus.

(b) Bring up someone from the minors who we plan/should roster this winter but who is not currently on the 40-man.   We would start that person's free agency and arbitration clocks but it would only be for a short time.  

(c) Bring up someone who would NOT have to be rostered this winter but who is a good prospect.

Given these three categories, let's take a look at the options 

Ryan Lavarnway - A category (a) guy, he is the best option but, unfortunately, he is currently in the COVID protocol and is not available.

Bryan Lavastida - A category (b) guy, he is my next choice.  Now, as a defensive catcher he not be the optimal choice but he should be rostered this winter as he is Rule 5-eligible this winter.

Bo Naylor - A category (c) guy, he does not have to be rostered this winter and as he is having trouble hitting at AA as he is young for the league, he clearly needs more seasoning.

Gavin Collins - A category (a) guy as he is not truly a prospect, he is also under COVID protocol.   There is a chance that under the rostering rules we could move him off the 40-man roster without exposing him to waivers as he is still a rookie and this is his first time on the 40-man.   He would still be exposable to the Rule 5 this winter.

Mike Rivera - Similar to Collins but a better defensive catcher, he is another Collins-like option.  He is not on COVID protocol so is an option.

Gianpaul Gonzalez - Like Rivera and Collins, but less experienced, he is a true insurance policy as you don't want to have to play him.   He is not considered a prospect and is probably not as good an option as any of the guys above him.

To me the natural selection, given the COVID situation, was Lavastida.   Not selecting him raises questeion marks on whether the Indians are for sure going to roster him this winter.  That, to me, is an issue.   Although Lavastida has development to go he is a true prospect.   The fact they didn't promote him is a red flag to me.  Heck, the fact they didn't promote Rivera is a red flag to me as Rivera is a great defensive catcher, or so I have heard.   

Not a huge deal but these guys are supposed to be the experts and it looks like they had better options and chose not to take them.  You have to ask why.

Thoughts for a Monday

 OK, time to catch our breaths, talk about this weekend and what the future holds.

1. I saw a stat yesterday where the Indians were something like 42-22 against teams with sub .500 records and 22-42 against teams with over .500 records.  When you have a team constructed like the Indians are, that is all you can expect...a .500 record or slightly over that.  My 82-80 prediction still works for me for this season.

2. I have been looking and asking experts and, with all due respect to the bloggers who follow the Indians, I don't see how guys from the 2017 international signing class would have to be protected from the Rule 5 this winter.   Guys like Johnkensy Noel, Jose Tena, George Valera and others would have been signed to 2018 contracts.   Given that they were all under 18 years old when they signed, they would have to be protected after 5 playing seasons.  They have only been on team rosters, I think, for 4 seasons.   Unless there is some nuance I don't get, I think the bloggers  who are saying this are incorrect.

3. Speaking of rosters, the active roster will expand to 28 soon.   Don't count on the Indians adding prospects from their minor league system.   The two additional roster spots will likely be held for guys like Harold Ramirez and Roberto Perez.   We will need another catcher tomorrow but I look for the Indians to add Ryan Lavarnway as their backup and he would stay on the roster until Roberto is ready.   I see them doing a 60-day DL with Wilson Ramos.    While it would be nice to see them add prospects, with the AAA season now being extended through most of September, guys who might be called up will still be playing games in the minors.   They only things I see them MAYBE doing is bringing back up some or all of Kyle Nelson, Cam Hill and Francisco Perez.  Unfortunately, at this point, Alex Young is the only pitcher I could see sending to the minors although if JC Mejia is still stagnating in the bullpen by the end of Wednesday's game I could see sending him down.   So, for those of you expecting to see Oscar Gonzalez, Nolan Jones, Gabriel Arias or Cody Morris, I think it is unlikely unless someone has a season-ending injury.  The Indians have made it clear they want to sort out the guys on the active roster right now.   That is a good thing since guys like Chang, Miller, Johnson and Mercado should either be labeled as assets going forward (like Zimmer is now) or should be dumped to make room on the 40-man this off-season.

4. Speaking of rosters, part deux, I think the Indians, as they have in the past, will likely play their cards close to their vest in terms of who they are adding.   I think the addition of Francisco Perez is likely considered problematic now by some in the Indians' management group as it added to the guys who have to be dealt with in front of the Rule 5.   I think there used to be a rule where a rookie like Perez could be taken off the 40-man one time without going through waivers but that still doesn't protect him from the Rule 5.   For me, when I look at the roster, Hill and Nelson have played themselves off the roster but the Indians will look to trade guys like this ahead of the roster lockdown in November.   

5.  Speaking of prospects, every year in January Baseball America prints its book with all the top prospects for each organization.  Looking back right now EVERY one of the 59 prospects highlighted on the list for the Indians in 2021 has either graduated to the majors or is having a good season or, at least, a season that still labels the guy a legitimate prospect going forward, as a lot of guys were pushed up the ladder faster than they would have been if there had been a 2020 minor league season.  Folks, looking back on previous lists, I cannot find one time where this has happened.  Some guys always crater out during the season after the list comes out but not this year.   To me this means good player development and good overall talent within the system.   When I watch minor league games and see the stats of guys in other organizations it hits home that our guys are performing well enough to make me think this is not just a mirage.

6. Regarding the major league team, good stuff from Logan Allen and Cal Quantrill.   It is going to make it harder to dump Allen this off-season although he even sucked when he was sent to Columbus making me think spring training was a mirage for him.  Interesting to see if he gets enough innings the rest of the year to give them time to evaluate him.  I see us having a bullpen made up of guys like Mejia, Allen and maybe Hentges next year and give Morgan another year in the minors to perfect his trade.   If Bieber is healthy, having a rotation of Bieber, Civale, Plesac, McKenzie and Quantrill next year could look really solid with some combination of Morgan and the ones of Mejia, Allen or Hentges who don't make the bullpen, become the reserve in Columbus.

7. It is the elephant in the room but is there anyone else who thinks it looks likely that Karinchak was doctoring the ball early this year and when they started cracking down he lost his effectivenes?   Not saying that happened and I would never accuse anyone of cheating but, damn, the timing is uncanny.   I remember Rick Horton, the Cardinals color analyst saying last year that he thought Karinchak had the best curveball he had ever seen.   I was shocked at the time but took the critique for what it was worth.   Looking back, I have to wonder what he was doing then that he is not doing now.   Hopefully it is just mechanical/mental and they can get him back on track.  As Hale said, Karinchak is a core player.   I would hate for him to go all Carlos Baerga on us and just crater.  

Update to the updated Mid-season prospect rankings

 OK, MLB Pipeline's recent update of the Indians prospect rankings (matching mine in terms of who the Indians' top prospect is) reminded me I need to do a post-trade deadline update to my rankings.   I note a couple of things from MLB's list:  (1) we have 5 prospects in their top 100 and (2) Freeman is the first at #65.  This tells me that we have a lot of good prospects but no can't miss prospects and the fact that our #1 is actually out for the season tells me that our farm system is deep, but not top heavy.  Since you need stars to compete in this league, that could represent a problem.

Obviously we lost Yainer Diaz and gained Pilkington and Battenfield and some of the guys (e.g., Owen Miller) who I had on the July version of this list look like they have/will exhaust their rookie eligibility.

So, here is the updated list:

1. Tyler Freeman 
2. George Valera
3. Daniel Espino
4. Nolan Jones
5. Gabe Arias
6. Gavin Williams
7. Brayan Rocchio
8. Oscar Gonzalez
9. Doug Nikhazy
10. Logan T. Allen
11. Tommy Mace
12. Jhonkensy Noel
13. Carson Tucker
14. Angel Martinez
15. Bo Naylor
16. Jose Tena
17. Bryan Lavistida

18. Isaiah Greene
19. Ethan Hankins
20. Juan Hillman
21. Will Benson
22. Richie Palacios
23. Cody Morris
24. Joey Cantillo
25.  Payton Battenfield
26. Alexfri Planez
27. Luis Durango, Jr.
28. Jake Fox

29. Tanner Burns
30. Carlos Vargas
31. Gabriel Rodriguez
32. Francisco Perez
33. Angel Genao
34. Fran Alduey

35. Konnor Pilkington
36, Kirk McCarty
37. Justin Garza
38. Scott Moss
39.  Nick Mikolajchak
40. Jose Pestrano
41. Josh Wolf
42. Jerson Ramirez
43. Tanner Bibee

44. Juan Mota
45. Jonathon Rodriguez
46. Trenton Brooks
47. Xzavion Curry
48. Aaron Braccho
49. Cam Hill
50. Jose Fermin
51. Junior Sanquintin
52. Petey Halpin
53. Steven Kwan

54. Andruw Monasterio

55. Hunter Gaddis
56. Ryan Webb

57. Tanner Tully
58. Robert Broom
59. Mason Hickman
60. Dakody Clemmer
61. Marcos Gonzalez
62. Milan Tolentino

63. Will Brennan

64. Kevin Kelly
65. Jack Leftwich
66. Rodney Boone
67. Yordys Valdez
68. Christian Cairo
69. Conner Kokx
70. Adam Scott
71. Aaron Pinto
72. Joe Naranjo

73. Tim Herrin
74. Thomas Ponticelli
75. Trenton Denholm
76. Connor Marabell
77. Alex Call
78. Shane McCarthy
79. Skylar Arias
80. Nic Enright

81. Andrew Misiaszek
82. Kevin Kelly
83. Will Bartlett
84. Zach Hart
85. Jamie Arias-Bautista
86. Quentin Holmes
87. Richard Polanco
88. Robert Lopez
89. Yefri Rivera
90. Franco Aleman
91.  Will Dion
92. Korey Holland
93. Hunter Stanley
94. Zach Pettway
95. Raymond Burgos
96. Gavin Collins
97. Mike Rivera
98. Aaron Davenport

99. Alex Royalty

100. Kyle Nelson

Mama said there'd be days like this, there'd be days like this my mama said

 OK, not much positive to say when you are getting thumped like this.  Still, some things to think about:

1. Owen Miller just sucks.   I mean, the guy just sucks.   I think many fans are incredulous that a guy who hit like Miller did in spring training and, upon not making the team, still hit in Columbus...and with his history of hitting in the minor leagues...can suck this bad.  The best way I can describe it is that I would rather have Jake Bauers at 1B right now.   That says it all.

2. Andres Gimenez.   You would guess he would be chomping at the bit coming back up after having to spend half the season in Columbus.   But no.   He made two incredibly crap plays today, making a fake dive on Olson's fourty-five hopper up the middle and then not fielding Kemp's grounder to second.   The guy is a freakin' SS.  Make some plays.  You look like you should be staring in "Major League - The Bad Years" instead of playing in the real major leagues.   He appears to have a really poor attitude right now, like he really doesn't want to be in Cleveland.   Now this is just my opinion but it looks to me like he is pissed that he is at 2B and Rosario is still at SS.   So a kid who is part of our future is playing like s**t instead of taking this opportunity and running with it.   This just really ticks me off.   Maybe I am totally wrong but it looks to me like he doesn't give a crap about playing hard or playing well.   Normally these things are handled internally in the locker room.   So, veterans, let's handle this situation because this kid doesn't look like he really wants to play in the majors right now.

3. Francisco Perez.  Could a ML debut have gone any worse?   Frankly, the guy looks like he doesn't have a single thing that would make him a ML pitcher.   Now, it is only one outing but, damn, I expected some spark from him when he came in but he just poured gasoline onto the fire.  

Hey, sometimes you have bad days.   I mean look at Jose and Franmil today.   Nothing.  But at least I know these guys try and they care and they have a history of performance.   These other guys, they need to figure it out because their lack of performance and, in some cases, lack of effort, is really ticking me off.

Back to the 40-man roster

 Giving this a little more thought and considering how I put together that roster, here are some thoughts:

(A) The roster contains at least 6 players (highlighted in blue) who have close to zero chance of being ready to play in the majors in 2022.   That number is not that extreme but it is still a problem.  Five of those guys (Cantillo, Noel, Rocchio, Tena and Valera) will have their option clock started and the other one, Carlos Vargas, will require another option to be used on him, meaning that 2 of his probable 4 options will have been used without him getting above A ball.  

(B) Besides the above 5, 7 others (Morris, Pilkington, Lavastida, Freeman, Palacios, Benson and Gonzalez) will be on the roster for the first time.

(C) There are 6 relief pitchers who are currently on the 40 man who will have to be DFA'd if we roster all the prospects we need to.   That can represent a problem for us as there are only 7 relief pitchers with any major league experience who we will roster this winter.  

(D) All the other positions (catcher, infield and outfield) appear to have enough depth to field a ML team.   We will obviously have to bring in a veteran catcher to play at Columbus until Lavastida and Bo Naylor are ready.   Fortunately Bo Naylor does not have to be rostered until next winter.

Looking at the relief pitchers below who we may not be able to roster and some of the young players we want to roster, here are some thoughts.

Joey Cantillo - A key piece in the Clevinger trade, he hasn't pitched all year.   He would be a likely player to not be rostered, gambling that he likely wouldn't have the experience to survive a whole year in the majors next year.  At the same time, if he has surgery this winter a team could stash him all next year after drafting him in the Rule 5 and groom him for another year.

Johnkensy Noel - He is tearing up low A but the Indians have not promoted him yet.   Interesting.   Are they thinking that keeping him at low A will keep teams from getting a read on him?  I have 3 things to say to the Indians:

(a) Anthony Santander - The Indians took a chance he wouldn't be picked because he had never played above A ball and was hurt.   They were wrong.

(b) 495 feet, 485 feet.  Two HRs he hit in the same game.

(c) .390 BA.  

(d) Albert Pujols - He made the jump from low A to the majors year over year and never looked back.  Not saying Noel = Pujols but there are some similarities.  The comp means, to me, we have to roster him as I don't believe the ruse of keeping him at low A will work.   If he is available he is drafted in the Rule 5

Jose Tena - He is not the perfect middle infield prospect but he is a good one.  We will already risk not rostering Jose Fermin.  I have to believe that we won't risk not rostering two quality MIF prospects and Tena is more intriguing than Fermin, who has hit 9th all year for Akron.

Will Benson - The most interesting guy on this list of prospects I think we need to roster, Benson is also a guy who you could easily see not rostering and telling other teams 'Go ahead, take a chance on a one year wonder'.  The classic sucker bet, the Indians may feel they would win this mind game with their opponents and they might be right.  Nothing about this year says that Benson has broken through.   While he appears to be on an upward trajectory his addition to the 40-man this winter appears to be the most questionable.

George Valera - Like Noel, he oozes potential and is too high a prospect to not roster.

Rocchio - Ditto to Valera

Palacios - Maybe the rest of this year will change my mind but his trajectory is upwards and he looks like a better version of Clement.  

Tyler Freeman - He has shown enough to be rostered.  Even with the shoulder injury.

Looking at this list and the relievers we have, I could see us rostering Justin Garza and not rostering Benson.  If you believe Cantillo isn't going to be lost in the Rule 5 you could roster someone else but who would that be?  Wittgren is nothing special but at least he has had SOME success in the majors.   Hill, Allen, Moss, Nelson do not, right now, appear to be great losses as they don't provide anything special in terms of pure stuff or performance.  Ditto for the players Chang, Mercado and Johnson and, maybe even Own Miller, although I think we should stick with him based on his pedigree (although he really sucks right now) and give him one more year.

Another point on the list below.   It is a stocked 40-man roster.   No fluff.  So unless you non-tender someone in December, you can't really add a ML free agent.  You would have to wait for opening day when you 60-day DL someone if you wanted to add someone to the roster.  As it is now with the discussion above we would have to expose Joey Cantillo, Will Benson and Jose Fermin to the Rule 5 draft and that is in the BEST of situations.   In addition to those guys there are a host of minor league relievers who would be exposed to the Rule 5 and given the trajectories of guys like Justin Garza and Francisco Perez this year, we could lose guys in the Rule 5 who might have made their ML debuts in the Indians' bullpen in 2022.

There will be some hard decisions this winter.   I hope the Indians lean more toward the future than towards the present. 

Last point: Given the list below the obvious thing would be to trade 2-3 guys from the current 40-man roster who we intend to DFA to some team in need of ML-ready players and get 1 good prospect back who doesn't have to be rostered this winter.   However, I don't believe the Indians have the ability to pull of even one trade of this type when 2-3 need to be pulled off.   This is the only way I can imagine having the roster we need for next year AND not losing players for pennies. 

2022 Starting Rotation Candidates

1. Shane Beiber

2. Aaron Civale

3. Triston McKenzie

4. Zach Plesac

5. Cal Quantrill

6. Eli Morgan

7. Cody Morris (Minor league depth)

8. Konnor Pinkington (Minor league depth)

9. Carlos Vargas (probably not useable in 2022)

10. Joey Cantillo (probably not useable in 2022)

2022 Bullpen Candidates

1. Emmanuel Clase

2. James Karinchak

3. Francisco Perez

4. Nick Sandlin

5. Trevor Stephan

6. Sam Hentges (also starter depth)

7. JC Mejia (also starter depth)

8. Logan Allen (not on roster)

9. Cam Hill (not on roster)

10. Kyle Nelson (not on roster)

11. Justin Garza (not on roster)

12. Nick Wittgren (not on roster)

13. Scott Moss (not on roster)

2022 Catchers

1. Roberto Perez

2. Austin Hedges

3. Bryan Lavastida (minor league depth)

2022 Infielders

1. Bobby Bradley (1B)

2. Andres Gimenez (2B/SS)

3. Amed Rosario (SS)

4. Jose Ramirez (3B)

5. Owen Miller (Utility)

6. Nolan Jones (3B/1B/OF)

7. Gabe Arias (minor league depth)

8. Tyler Freeman (minor league depth)

9. Richie Palacios (minor league depth)

10. Johnkensy Noel (probably not useable in 2022)

11. Brayan Rocchio (probably not useable in 2022)

12. Jose Tena (probably not useable in 2022)

13. Ernie Clement (not on roster)

14. Yu Chang (not on roster)

15. Jose Fermin (Rule 5 eligible as not on roster)

2022 Outfielders

1. Myles Straw

2. Harold Ramirez

3. Bradley Zimmer

4. Franmil Reyes

5. Josh Naylor

6. Oscar Gonzalez (minor league depth)

7. Will Benson (minor league depth)

8. George Valera (probably not useable in 2022)

9. Oscar Mercado (not on roster)

10. Daniel Johnson (not on roster)

Thoughts for a Wednesday

It's really interesting on how the mind can flash back to forgotten patterns of behavior.  I remember in the .70s and '80s watching isolated performances by sub=par performing players hoping that the isolated became the normal.   With age I can see that a 5-game Jake Bauers hitting streak is the exception, not the rule.

Still, when you see young pitchers have a good game or two, if you have that pre-millenium thinking formed during years of bad play, your mind goes back to those same hopes.    Ditto for hitters.

That being said, here are some thoughts:

1. Either send Mejia down for needed experience or, if he makes it through 4 innings relatively unscathed, pull him and consider him an opener.   Likely he will be a reliever in the future with his two-pitch mix.   The best way to ease him into that role is as an opener.

2. Send down Mercado.   He has had plenty of chances and this is starting to look like Bauers Part Deux.

3. We need to decide if we are going to roster Oscar Gonzalez this fall and, if so, bring him up.   

4. Bring up Gabriel Arias and send down Clement.   I love guys like Ernie Clement.   They are so retro (think the steady stream of guys like him the 80s who came and went).   

5. I really hope Owen Miller figures it out.   I was really hoping for a Jason Kipnis-like player out of him, with a little more defensive versatility.   Is that too much to ask for?

Ah, back to the game.   JC just gave up 4 in the first.   My guess is if he knew he was pitching only one linning that wouldn't have happened.

Final Draft Bonus Pool Recap

 The Indians have signed their 20th round pick Jake Miller for $300,000.   That means, based on MLB.com bonus numbers, we have $4800 that we did not spend from our budget which is in line with what we normally have left over.   There is still a question of whether Miller is worth that much as this is essentially 6th round money.   Hey was not rated in MLB.com top 250 draft prospects which means he is worth 8th round money or later.    On the other hand Baseball America ranked him 203 which would correspond more closely to the bonus they paid him.  Time will tell whether this is a good use of $300,000.   Obviously you have to expect performance from Miller based on that bonus.

Once again, they do it every year, the Indians find a way to spend all their draft bonus pool and, if you believe Miller is worth it, on getting value in the draft.

Post Draft Followup - Undrafted Free Agents We Signed

 Welcome to Sunday afternoon. 

In past years, from a distance, it appeared to me that there were very few guys signed who weren't drafted in the amateur draft.   I mean, when there are 40 rounds I guess you would get everybody, right?  

This year there were only 20 rounds so a lot college organizational filler guys and some high school 'flyer' picks who would normally fill out the last 20 rounds of the draft ended up not being drafted this year.   Add that to the backlog from last year when there were only 5 rounds to the draft and there should have still been guys to sign, right?

So when I went looking for the guys who the Indians signed as undrafted free agents here is what I found:

1. Seth Waddell, C, Eastern Carolina: OPS .899, 14 HR, college junior 4th year junior, has his degree)

2. Zac Fascia, C, Purdue, OPS .727, 3 HR, 5th year senior

So there you have it.   We signed the college catcher for our #1 pick, Gavin Williams, likely to ease our top pick into pro ball and another college catcher.  

Makes sense, right?  We drafted 20 pitchers and they need someone to throw to in bullpen sessions and games, right?

Except for the following.   Here are the number of undrafted free agents signed by other teams:

Arizona - 4 (all college pitchers)

Atlanta: 2 (HS shortstop and JJ Niekro, a college pitcher)

Baltimore 4 (3 college pitchers and a college catcher)

Boston 1 (college OFer)

Chicago Cubs 4 (one college catcher, 3 college pitchers)

Chicago White Sox 5 (4 college pitchers and 1 college catcher)

Cincinnati 5 (2 college pitchers, one college catcher, two college OFers)

Colorado 1 (college pitcher)

Detroit 0

Houston 7 (all college pitchers)

Kansas City 2 (both college pitchers)

Los Angeles Angels 22 (5 college pitchers, 16 college position players, 1 HS position player)

NOTE: The Angels drafted all college pitchers in the draft)

Los Angeles Dodgers 7 (3 college pitchers, 4 college position players)

Miami 5 (2 college pitchers, 2 college catchers, 1 college OFer)

Milwaukee 3 (all college pitchers)

Minnesota 3 (all college pitchers)

NY Mets 1 (college pitcher)

NY Yankees 2 (college pitcher, college OFer)

Oakland 2 (college pitcher, college 1B)

Philadelpia 10 (7 college pitchers, 3 college position players)

Pittsburgh 1 (college pitcher)

San Diego 6 (4 college pitchers, 2 college position players)

San Francisco 3 (1 college pitcher, 2 college position players)

Seattle 2 (1 college pitcher, 1 college OFer)

St. Louis 4 (3 college pitchers, 1 college catcher)

Tampa 2 (both college pitchers)

Texas 4 (1 HS player, 1 college pitcher, 1 college OFer, 1 college catcher)

Toronto 2 (both college pitchers)

Washington 8 (3 college pitchers, 3 college catchers, 2 college position players

So what do we make of this?

• The Indians were in the bottom half of teams signing undrafted free agents.   
• After drafting almost all pitchers they drafted only catchers.
• The most comparable team in the draft to them, the Angels, used the undrafted pool to bring in position players to balance their draft between college position players and pitchers)

I don't know how much each of these teams had left in their draft budgets but I would have to guess, with $150,000 left in their budget plus $125,000 per signing without touching that $150,000 (or using it to augment the $125,000) we could have signed some guys.

Remember, the life blood of MLB player development is having players to develop.

Just saying.